Shane Wahl

No love?

When you put it that way, damn. AA is going to be interesting, at least through June.

Coming into this year, there was hope that some prospects would "graduate" and move up to the Twins causing significant impact. Their names were Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, and Byron Buxton. 2014, then, would be a year of significant development in the rebuilding process. Sano was done for the entire season after Tommy John surgery. Buxton was up and down with injuries before a concussion ended his season (though he is going to the AFL). Meyer was inconsistent at times and, well, that is apparently enough for the Twins to keep him down in AAA. Given this story for these three players, it is hard to imagine how any kind of "prospect story" could unfold for the Twins in 2014, but it did. Dating back to 2011, I have rated Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas in my prospect lists, with Santana ranging from the low 30s to 15 going into 2014, and Vargas from around 50 to 16 going into 2014. In doing so, I had believed that both were going to be likely MLB contributors, at least for some time. Santana's speed and potential ability to stick at short guaranteed him a chance to make it. Vargas has tremendous power and a good overall bat and this would lead him to making the Twins eventually. I did not expect both of them to make this kind of impact, and certainly not this soon. Santana has been undeniably impressive with that bat, but also with his shift to CF, a position he hadn't really played since 2011 in Beloit. CF was always just an additional position that he could fit into given his speed and defensive ability. Coming into 2014, it actually looked like Santana was destined for second base, a position that is pretty much locked down now by Brian Dozier and his 20/20 capacity. For Santana to be playing CF and SS while posting a line of .320/.358/.475 (.832) in 360 plate appearances. He has 19 doubles, 6 triples, and 7 homers, while walking 17 times, striking out 73 times, and stealing 15 out of 19 bases. These numbers dwarf the .273/.317/.391 (.708) career minor league numbers, though the extra base hits and K/BB numbers are not that out of whack. He is simply making better contact and getting more singles. Some of this might have to do with the development of smart two-strike hitting, but that is only speculation on my part. Note the title of this article as for 2015. The long term role for Santana beyond that is not under speculation. Maybe he doesn't work out defensively at short and yet his bat requires a position somewhere. 3B, LF, and RF, might be further positions to add to his repertoire. This problem has always been there, but it is a good thing that he has returned to playing CF. Vargas is locked in as a DH and 1B. In 162 plate appearances he has produced a .303/.321/.493 (.814) line. He has smacked 8 doubles and homers, while walking 4 times and striking out 40 times. Rest assured this K/BB rate is nowhere near his career minor league rate that is basically 1/2 instead of 1/10. Unlike Santana, Vargas isn't drastically over performing his career minor league numbers. The offense for Vargas is legitimate and sustainable. It will be interesting to see if he can improve defensively enough to be an actual backup first baseman behind Mauer. I would imagine that he can do so given his desire to learn and adapt. Santana and Vargas have been great surprises this season and serve as a solid foundation with Mauer and Dozier as we wait for the other prospects to arrive.

I have posted already about 25 and 40-man rosters. But I am not all that interested in adding anyone other than maybe a top 5ish FA SP. 2015 is another year of not making the playoffs, but it must be a year of figuring out the youth movement so as to then make the proper moves in 2016 and beyond. I go with Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann, Mauer, Vargas, Dozier, Santana, Plouffe, Escobar, Schafer, Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee/Nunez/Romero/Beresford (I still like those latter two) Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, Nolasco, May, Darnell/Achter, Oliveros, Pressly, Tonkin, C. Johnson (seriously), Fien, Perkins Note: that I am interested in dealing Swarzak, Duensing, Thielbar, and Fien (though I list him on the roster and would replace with Guerra). Coming up with specific replacements is hard when considering trading relievers, especially in the offseason. I think they could all bring back organizational top 30-50 prospects and if said prospects are young (like under 23 young), then it would be worth it. The Twins bullpen is going to be stacked very, very soon. Burdi, Z. Jones, Reed, Peterson, etc. are just ridiculously good right now.

Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann Mauer Dozier Santana Plouffe Escobar Schafer Hicks Arcia Vargas somebody else (Romero, Beresford, Parmelee, Nunez, FA) Hughes Gibson Nolasco Meyer May Darnell/somebody Oliveros/Achter Pressly Tonkin Thielbar Fien Perkins Likely 25-man roster. Likely 80 wins next season.

I get a little depressed about Meyer when reading this. That is not the intent, I know, but it is alarming. Berrios falls right into the Gibson-2013 and Meyer-2014 trap here in 2015. Innings limit but most (or all) in the minors. Given injuries, I think teams need to move pitchers faster through their systems to get value when they can. Berrios is a perfect example of that. It's 2016 for him.

He's a Diamond+ pitcher. I wouldn't end the discussion on him right now. It's a bad season all-around. He probably has a good start next time.

No. 1 really should be Walker. Vavra has no future.

I haven't read any of these comments on this article, but the general response from the other one was irrational. I am not insulting anyone. Want to make that clear. There isn't a whole lot to be done with this roster, at least not until we see it in full for awhile next year. People seem to jump on this "same roster, same result" train and it is just irrational. Young players can get better. Period. There's some serious youth on the Twins roster right now and some of those young players are not the ones that we expected to be there right now. I have always liked Danny Santana, but this was nowhere near expected. I have always liked Kennys Vargas, but this was nowhere near expected. Sano and Buxton are going to happen. To worry otherwise is to despair over nothing right now. Plouffe has stabled as an average player overall. Escobar is good. Arcia and Pinto are going to hit (though Arcia is clearly going to need some shift in approach). And there's still Mauer and Dozier. Hughes is (as predicted) good. Gibson has improved a lot. There is good reason to think that May will as well. Let's see about Nolasco, though, there has to be a breaking point next year with this guy (I was only ok with his signing AFTER Hughes was acquired for so cheapish). Meyer needs to be in the rotation out of ST. Think about a rotation of Hughes-Gibson-Nolasco-May-Meyer with Milone as a sixth option for a second. The sixth option is a legitimate 4-5 starter . . . for the first time in years for this team! I am a prospect nerd so I am biased towards development, but it still is true that the youth movement is arriving and the Twins need to stick with it right now.

Bernier isn't going to be good. I don't understand not promoting Romero instead. As far as Polanco is concerned, he will definitely need more time defensively, at the least. He is destined to start 2015 at New Britain. That's quite good. The September Twins INF thing is changed. Now Santana must get some time at SS, so the Twins also don't want to promote.

Pinto and Herrmann were hitting very well. Bernier is getting rewarded, though one would think that Romero should be rewarded as well/instead. The pitching additions make perfect sense.

Aaron Thompson is not making the team next year out of spring training.

Beresford and Romero should be rewarded. Beresford is really consistent (if only he were a pitcher!) and Romero has hit really well for two years in a row. I don't care if he only starts 5 or 6 games. Achter and Oliveros deserve it too. And Oliveros is very likely to be a good setup man.

Note that I am not in favor of trading prospects right now. At least not the very top, clearly. That said, redundancy could be a factor, and that is why I mention Rosario, Harrison, T. Jones, and Duffey.

I don't know about all of this. This year is indeed ending differently than the last few. Santana and Vargas have arrived, Arcia and Escobar are developing. All four are 25 or younger. Dozier is now for sure a very good player. Mauer is hitting finally. May will get the kinks out. Meyer will be a Twin next year. Sano too. It's possible that Buxton, Polanco, and even Berrios may as well. Pinto is going to be on this roster next year. Trading him seems bad. The 25-man roster I proposed is a .500 team, I think, and then you add in Meyer, Sano, and possibly few others. I would be much more interested in throwing money at 2 players at the end of next year and probably not this year unless it really is a top pitcher.

For people talking trades, it seems to me that the clearest contenders to be traded from depth are Eddie Rosario, Travis Harrison, Tyler Jones, and Tyler Duffey. One of those position players and one of those pitchers might get you something nice (an LF or an SP).

Uh, this current roster is not responsible for another 90 loss season. The Twins are 10-13 in August, I think, and would be 11-12 if not for Perkins blowing last night's save. And the point is that the young guys are going to be better overall. Nolasco simply can't be this terrible again and they are going to be adding Meyer.

Thorpe and Berrios are major bright lights. Berrios starts 2015 in AA and should be in line for 2016 Twins starting rotation. Thorpe could be there by 2017. Turner is going to have to prove himself at AA in 2015. I am less scared about him than I used to be, though.

Yes, exactly. I would like the following to happen: the Twins refrain from spending big this offseason unless it is on one of the top 5 pitching free agents. So, no spending to replace LF. Wait and save. That means that money should be SAVED now in order to be spent when NEEDED when the team is competitive for real. Just finally, finally, go with the youth movement. 2015 opening day roster barring trades and injuries but dealing/releasing where noted (and I don't care about my consistency over the past month!): C: Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann 1B: Mauer, Vargas 2B: Dozier (Escobar, Santana, Beresford) SS: Escobar (Santana, Beresford) 3B: Plouffe (Escobar, Beresford) LF: Hicks (yes, Hicks), (Ortiz, Herrmann) CF: Santana (until Buxton, then decisions need to be made), (Hicks) RF: Arcia (Ortiz, Herrmann, Hicks) DH: Vargas, (Pinto) Bench (generally): Pinto, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz Yep. Gone from this are Parmelee, Nunez, and Schafer. Trade for C level prospects who are under 22 and that is a win. All three of those guys could serve as major league bench players, but not for the Twins now. Starting rotation: Hughes Gibson Nolasco Meyer (or Milone) May (or Milone) Bullpen: I still would like some trading to be done as there is just no reason to pay Swarzak and Duensing any more money, for instance. Also, I am surprised Fien wasn't dealt, but for these purposes we will keep him. Perkins Fien C. Johnson Oliveros Tonkin Thielbar Deduno/Darnell/K. Johnson I also think Guerra and Achter could compete here. The big question is going to be: when do Burdi and Z. Jones arrive? Those two will serve as dominant setup men (and there needs to be another dominant lefty somewhere).

I am recalibrating some of my thoughts for 2015. I think (now) that something like this should happen: I would like the following to happen: the Twins refrain from spending big this offseason unless it is on one of the top 5 pitching free agents. So, no spending to replace LF. Wait and save. That means that money should be SAVED now in order to be spent when NEEDED when the team is competitive for real. Just finally, finally, go with the youth movement. 2015 opening day roster barring trades and injuries but dealing/releasing where noted (and I don't care about my consistency over the past month!): C: Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann 1B: Mauer, Vargas 2B: Dozier (Escobar, Santana, Beresford) SS: Escobar (Santana, Beresford) 3B: Plouffe (Escobar, Beresford) LF: Hicks (yes, Hicks), (Ortiz, Herrmann) CF: Santana (until Buxton, then decisions need to be made), (Hicks) RF: Arcia (Ortiz, Herrmann, Hicks) DH: Vargas, (Pinto) Bench (generally): Pinto, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz Yep. Gone from this are Parmelee, Nunez, and Schafer. Trade for C level prospects who are under 22 and that is a win. All three of those guys could serve as major league bench players, but not for the Twins now. Starting rotation: Hughes Gibson Nolasco Meyer (or Milone) May (or Milone) Bullpen: I still would like some trading to be done as there is just no reason to pay Swarzak and Duensing any more money, for instance. Also, I am surprised Fien wasn't dealt, but for these purposes we will keep him. Perkins Fien C. Johnson Oliveros Tonkin Thielbar Deduno/Darnell/K. Johnson I also think Guerra and Achter could compete here. The big question is going to be: when do Burdi and Z. Jones arrive? Those two will serve as dominant setup men (and there needs to be another dominant lefty somewhere). I absolutely refuse to believe that this team as is won't be pretty good. That is, 80+ win good. I would like to see the Twins now develop the young talent, see who fits and who doesn't and then spend quite lavishly eventually on where they need to do so. I am pushing some guys here who many people might not like: Herrmann, Ortiz, and Beresford. But I prefer promoting those guys then adding in guys of similar value from the top on down (good lord . . . the Twins and their 4th OF adventures). Also, these guys are clearly also not deprived of value if they get sent back down to AAA when Buxton and Sano arrive. In such a scenario, Hicks might become the 4th OF, Santana moves to short, Escobar super utilities, and Plouffe utilities. All in all, the rebuild is now close to full swing. Buxton, Sano, Rosario (where he fits, time will tell) Meyer, Burdi, and Z. Jones are the next wave.

I would have thought Levi Michael would have been going for sure, but that was without considering Rosario being allowed to go. I guess I don't even know why they would bother sending Burdi as opposed to someone like Cole Johnson or Adrian Salcedo. I guess I like the Rogers, Melotakis, and Adam selections, but the 7th could be resolved immediately with Johnson or Salcedo.

OH man I just lost a long reply to this by hitting the arrow on my keyboard to go back. Blergh. Blergh and a half. Anyway, it hinges on two things: the real status of his catching ability and the possibility of learning a corner OF position. The DHing can still happen 1-2 times a week, spelling Mauer or Vargas. The (fairly remote) possibility of a Pinto/Arcia true platoon in RF is pretty interesting though.

OPS up to .877. A double in one out of about every 13 plate appearances. Herrmann is doing everything he can to warrant a return to the Twins in September.

Meyer should have replaced Burton in the bullpen a few weeks ago.

I would feel worse about Herrmann's chances if he had hit very well in AAA and then was that bad in MLB. Since he never hit like this there, I think there might be a chance that he has gotten better. I bet the Twins had Johnson or Darnell, Tonkin, Pinto, Herrmann, and Hicks.