Shane Wahl

He is the focal point for the resurgence of the Twins. He has 5 seasons of good productivity left, at least. He has consistently been an on base machine.

Mauer is easily going to bounce back with a .315/.405/.430 line. The concussion was an issue. And he just had one of those years. Players come back all the time with years of success after bad years. Let's just hope it's Santana-Mauer-Arcia vs. righties and Santana-Mauer-Dozier vs. lefties. Mauer remains as an almost prototypical no. 2 batter.

Wow, that was pretty thorough and informative.

Nater, I agree with you. Thorpe is definitely at the top of my must-follow list with regard to his injury. It is a tough position to be in for the organization. He is young enough that it might really just heal fine and there are no real worries. On the other hand, maybe surgery should have just been done in October last year so that he is ready to start 2016? He is really, really young. I would definitely like to hear updates on this. He has Buxton-like potential in terms of changing the organization. If there were no injury concerns, I would have him no. 4 on this list, without a doubt.

I have Diaz at 11 here. I kept Jorge Fernandez off as a breakout player in my HMs. Because . . . well no real reason. I still like those four guys you mention at the end. At a certain point here I think one needs to just have guys who can play in the majors and that is why Beresford remains. I have a special spot for Williams, obviously. He can hit like crazy, but is so up and down. I am thinking 2015 is an up year for him and he moves up to AA after the AA-AAA or MLB promotions happen. With regard to Chattanooga, yes, it is loaded and congested. But keep in mind that the Twins clearly value AA time over AAA time. I don't see Rosario doing anything other than Chattanooga right now. Anyway, I do think that Dalton Hicks and Aderlin Mejia can be initial bench players, but worked in via a smart rotation of players. I am a fan of a rotation of players at all levels, actually. Off days are helpful. I wish there could be a study of this (for instance, Cal Ripken Jr. was great, but dear lord and a half if he only had some rest in there . . . ). Hicks and Mejia will get there time in the lineup. I guess Michael Gonzales would be on this team as well, especially since the Twins bothered with Brock Peterson (really?). I always liked Gonzales and maybe they should just send him to AAA. The guy still has a career .800 OPS in 2155 plate appearances. The signing of Brock Peterson has to just make him sick. I don't understand such a signing. Give your guys some hope and stop ramming players into AAA to bury marginal prospects out of the damn margins completely. I just despise that kind of management. Wow. Anyway, Diaz could fly up the list. I do think that one year from now Minier and Diaz are going to be with Gordon, Stewart, Thorpe, and Gonsalves near the top of the prospect list for the Twins in nationwide lists. Those two will keep the Twins up at the top of those rankings for awhile.

The White Sox are winning the division in 2015.

That is a good question. The bullpen is stocked with Burdi, Z. Jones, Peterson, Salcedo, and Van Steensel. Berrios is the no. 1. Brett Lee should be the no. 2 (let's see how that plays out). It's possible that the Twins push Alex Wimmers and Matt Summers back into the starting role. After that. who knows?

Thank you.

Thank you so much for this. It is the kind of priceless commentary I like from Fort Myers right now. Keep it up, please!

I agree with your incredulity with respect to Turner and Minier, and to some degree about Duffey. I do think that Duffey is a top 25 guy, though. That said, I really want the Twins to involve Duffey and Travis Harrison in some kind of trade.

Hicks doesn't need to have those kind of numbers as long as the defense also improves. He just needs .250/.340/.360 right now and get to double digits with homers and steals. I didn't like the Nolasco signing in a vacuum, but when they got Hughes for cheap as hell last year I was happy with the total package. I did basically think that Nolasco was going to turn in one bad season, one good season and two slightly below average seasons. Brushing 2014 aside as the obvious bad one, I would take his remaining contract. I do wish it was never four years though. Scott Van Slyke would have been nice as a trade instead of signing Torii Hunter, certainly. It's a bit hard to figure out a trade for the guy. What do you think of Travis Harrison, Tyler Duffey, and Michael Tonkin?

There was a similar story about him with different issues heading into last season. Last season pre-Twins he went from a real potential ? as a starter to a clear 3-ceiling starter. I expect a similar overall value from him as Kyle Gibson had in 2014 . . . if he gets the opportunity . . . Seriously, you have May and Meyer . . . but A: sign Stauffer, B: talk about him as vying for a rotation spot, C: don't cut losses with Pelfrey, D: etc. etc? Cheers to May for being someone aware of his game though.

And I am odd about catcher bats until AA. I still have Turner as the top-rated catching prospect of course. I also like the idea of Berrios-Turner working really extensively together. Of course, the idea of trading Suzuki is immensely appealing. They should have just paid him more money for one more year so he would be easier to trade. I am really not a huge fan of the guy. The bat explosion (for him) was remarkable, but that defense is still overrated. I have been wrong about Turner (and Taylor Rogers, but not Eades!). I do like a lot of Chattanooga time for him though.

I understand the Hicks-to-AAA view. At a certain point though, I think that ship sails. In the past I have been adamant about the necessity of AAA time for almost *all* prospects because I think there is value in that level. But when there is this struggle up in MLB after a risky (wild) promotion skipping AAA altogether, I don't like the idea of flopping back and forth between MLB and AAA, especially when there just isn't anyone else really better. Shane Robinson is not better. Maybe he is my Pelfrey for this year, or my Fryer for this year (I have to throw a fit about *somebody*), but I just don't see the value in having him around. I would rather see Santana in CF and Escobar at SS than see some horrific platoon between Schafer and Robinson. Robinson is 30 and in 452 MLB plate appearances has a .612 OPS and actually only 7 stolen bases. He also has over 1100 plate appearances in AAA . . . and a .708 OPS there and still only 39 steals, most of which were pre-2011. And he strangely doesn't really have a L/R split at all like one might expect. Schafer has been barely good beyond AA and last year with the Twins. Neither Schafer nor Robinson have any upside remaining. Schafer couples OF coverage defense with really good speed and stolen bases. Hicks did improve some last year. The biggest bit of weirdness really was the lack of power. But his entire career has been like that in the minors--he basically doesn't get it until the second year at his level. Well he had a very nice (not great) AA season and then two MLB seasons. I am very willing to start him out with the Twins at the bottom of the lineup with some significant platooning with Schafer.

Yeah, I just don't see him making it up in 2015. They are going to want to see something more from him in terms of contact. I guess there could be a remaining fire sale and September could mean a bunch of calls up for players.

I really agree with all of this, though Duffey seems more legit.

I will throw up if he is on the 40-man by then. You are right about primary catchers: the list really goes Suzuki-Fryer-Turner, whereas backup really would be Pinto-Herrmann-Rohlfing. That is why I made the Fryer remark. If it really comes down to adding either Fryer or Turner to the 40-man, I would hope they just skip over Fryer.

Though this hurts my most recent blog post (I just don't see Turner having a great season), the answer would be yes, unless somehow Fryer gets added to the 40-man roster before then.

I have Duffey the 10th ranked pitcher and Turner the 12th ranked position player.

Arcia is ready to explode. May and Pinto are 2 and 3, in my view, but they might not be given the proper opportunities . . .

Top 11-15 or in every other organization besides the Cubs and Pirates. Top 8-12 in most of them.

Assuming the Twins start the season with 13 position players and also assuming that there are no significant injuries to the leading 13 position players, it seems almost set in stone who is breaking camp for the Twins. Those players will be Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Torii Hunter, Jordan Schafer, and Eduardo Nunez. Really only Hicks and Nunez leave any doubt, but it is hard to see the team going any other way (I don't really care for Nunez on the roster, but he is very cheap and at least runs well). I decided to go through the list of players both on and off the 40-man roster who could be next up for the Twins, whether it be for injury or performance reasons, and whether it be for prospect development or mere roster completion. The other position players on the 40-man roster besides these 13 are: SS/2B Jorge Polanco, 3B Miguel Sano, C/LF/RF Chris Herrmann, OF/2B Eddie Rosario, and OF/1B Max Kepler. Four of these players are prospects, and only one of those prospects has any time in MLB (Polanco). Polanco needs seasoning in AA and AAA before coming back to the Twins. After being very successful in A+ ball (.291/.364/.415), he definitely struggled at times in AA (.281/.323/.342). He did have 36 extra base hits (seven homers) and 17 steals for the year, while his 55/88 BB/K rate between the two levels is respectable. It is important to remember that Polanco is almost two months younger than Sano. Speaking of, Sano should join the Twins at some point this season, though it seems unlikely to be before the All-Star break. The Twins will want him to dominate AA (he may be asked to do the same in AAA too). I would expect Sano to simply replace Nunez on the roster, but obviously play almost every day. The Twins are going to have to figure something out with Plouffe, as I can't see the Twins moving Sano to any other position during the season. Sano boasts a career .940 OPS in 1606 plate appearances in the minors. Rosario needs AA seasoning as well, though he was very successful in the AFL. He might position himself to move up with Sano. I would expect him to replace Schafer on the roster, but play almost every day. Rosario managed only a .237/.277/.396 line at AA last season, but in the AFL his numbers improved to .330/.345/.410, with 10 steals. Max Kepler posted a .264/.333/.393 line at A+ last season, but had AFL success too (.307/.366/.440). He is the farthest from MLB of any of these prospects. He should spend a full season in Chattanooga. Chris Herrmann graduated from prospect status at some point in 2013. He provides another catching option while providing depth in the corner OF positions. The Twins like him and feel safe with adding him if they need a player while someone else goes on a DL stint. He has struggled in MLB, but finally started to pound AAA pitching with an .878 OPS in 228 plate appearances for Rochester in 2014. There are players not currently on the 40-man roster who would obviously need someone else off or someone placed on the DL to get a chance to play for the Twins. Eric Fryer and Dan Rohlfing are two catchers playing for Rochester who could get a chance with the Twins in 2015. Fryer spent significant time with the big league club last year (.578 OPS) and would be the most likely fill-in if Suzuki or Pinto are injured for any longer amount time. Rohlfing is a nice all-around player who needs to get his bat going in AAA to be taken seriously (.618 OPS in 2014 there). The infielders who could move up from Rochester are utility players James Beresford and Doug Bernier, and 1B/corner OFs Brock Peterson and Reynaldo Rodriguez. Beresford (.674 OPS, with 28 doubles for Rochester in 2014) just turned 26 and must be considered before the aging Bernier (.744 OPS in 2014 for Rochester). He is very consistent both offensively and defensively and would fill in nicely for as a utility player either for Escobar or to replace someone else if Escobar became the starter for a period of time. Peterson and Rodriguez have had ample minor league slugging success (Peterson has hit 40 homers in the past two years, and Rodriguez has hit 43). The path to the Twins for these two is pretty steep, though Rodriguez could be a nice bench bat as a RH guy with some power. The outfielders for Rochester are three aging players and Danny Ortiz, who is a marginal prospect at this point mainly because he simply does not take any walks. Eric Farris (.671 career AAA OPS), Shane Robinson (.708 career AAA OPS), and Wilkin Ramirez (.726 career AAA OPS) are not worthy of MLB consideration anymore, though Farris is speedy and can also play second base. Ortiz has put up solid enough numbers and finished 2014 with a .285/.308/.462 line and 12 homers between AA and AAA. Unfortunately, he struck out 85 times while walking only 13 times. He is able to play all three OF positions, though CF is a bit of a long shot. Last--but certainly not least--there is Byron Buxton, future CF for the Minnesota Twins. Buxton will start in a ridiculously loaded AA lineup in Chattanooga (with Sano, Rosario, Polanco, etc.). Buxton posted a .240/.313/.405 line with four homers and six steals in 134 plate appearances in A+ ball in 2014. Given the freak injuries of a year ago, Buxton's development has been stunted. I don't see him arriving in Minnesota before September this year. On top of the 13 players likely breaking camp with the Twins I have added 13 players who could see time with the club in the near future. Five of them are already on the 40-man roster and have the inside track to joining the Twins, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of the guys not currently on the 40-man roster to make an appearance, especially Fryer, Beresford, and Ortiz.

Yes, O'Rourke seems like a legit contender and the top left-handed serious reliever with Aaron Thompson. He is blocked though.

Most teams and most fan bases seem to be ok with players who mash, but strike out a lot. It blows my mind a little to see Twins' fans get out of sorts with worry about players like Vargas, Arcia, and Sano and whiffs. Just accept it. That said, Vargas has been solid in the minors with regard to plate discipline, so I think he'll be fine. This was a great article.

vs. RH: Santana, Mauer, Arcia, Vargas, Dozier, Plouffe, Hunter, Suzuki, Hicks (Schafer some) vs. LH: Santana, Mauer, Dozier, Plouffe, Hunter, Vargas, Arcia, Pinto, Hicks