Shane Wahl

Herrmann is back to the 7-day DL. .882 OPS in 134 plate appearances in Rochester. I would really like to see Herrmann back behind the plate to support the Josmil Pinto era (which means . . .. please trade Suzuki for a prospect).

Ray is on the DL for New Britain. The OPS dropped below .700 before the injury.

HELLS YES!

Download attachment: Morneau_Carroll_celebrate.jpg I am not sure many really expected all of this. The Twins are now 8-7 and have won four games in a row. This is while without their best 2012 starting pitcher for the first nine games, with Vance Worley being bad until his fourth start, with a horribly struggling rookie in Aaron Hicks, with Justin Morneau at even sub-2012 levels of production, with Ryan Doumit struggling, with . . . . well you get the idea. The fact that the Twins are over .500 is surprising when you consider that only Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar, Pedro Florimon, and Kevin Correia are actually performing beyond expectations right now. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] So there's that--the Twins have gotten off to an above average start, literally, and that means a good start when looking at a, predicted by some, .410 win percentage (66 wins) for the year. To make things better, there is enormous good news in the minors. While Kyle Gibson has been fairly bad and has pitched too many innings per start if he is on an overall innings limit, Alex Meyer and Trevor May have looked good. When Gibson gets it going and when Meyer and May progress further, the Twins will have legitimate options at starting pitcher. Drafting a lefty starter (Sean Manaea?) with their #4 pick might add immensely to the 2015 season. Meyer has struck out 19 in 16 innings and he is giving up more hits then he is accustomed to, but he is moving right along toward a September call-up. May is going to struggle at times, but he is also going to make B.J. Hermsen out to be a non-prospect. (No offense, but Hermsen does not currently have a strike out pitch). Offensively, it seems that Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario are too big for where they are. There is zero reason for the Twins not to promote Buxton to Fort Myers immediately (and Angel Morales could then graduate to New Britain and get a true make it or break it season at AA). Sano and Rosario should remain until about June to be promoted to AA and then we can see the experiment really begin (Sano at third, Rosario at second). Buxton has produced a .415/.523/.642 line in 15 games. Buxton has two of each type of extra base hits while Sano has a slash of .375/.438/.734 and Rosario brings in a .352/.385/.507 slash. Rosario has no errors so far, a good sign for the biggest positional question in the system. Sano can move to first, Buxton can be the CF, pushing Hicks to RF. And Rosario as a second baseman makes the team strong at a position that has been a debacle since Chuck Knoblauch. D.J. Baxendale is a great honorable mention right now. In the future, Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, and Jose Berrios will rate honors. Baxendale, in particular, is notable for his success as a starter this year. This is all a sign of a very bright future. The 2013 team is competing for first place in the division AND the prospects are looking quite good. This year is already different than 2012. And that is worth a lot. Click here to view the article

There are 13 players born in 1990 who make it on my top 80 Twins prospects list. Download attachment: new_britain2.jpg 72. Taylor Rogers, LHS, DOB: 12/17/90 2013 A-/A+ (A+ stats): 130.2, 2.55, 83/32 (7.4/2.3) 2013 was an impressive season for the lefty. His K rate fell dramatically but he really kept the ball in the ballpark, giving up only five homers in A+. It was a solid step forward for Rogers and some more time in Fort Myers could help him develop further. 52. Jason Wheeler, LHS, DOB: 10/27/90 2013 A+: 143.1, 3.70, 91/58 (6.2/3.0) Wheeler walked more and struck out fewer in fewer innings at Fort Myers than his 2012 effort in Beloit. He has logged 300 innings in the past two seasons with a 3.57 ERA. I imagine he is heading back to Fort Myers to improve his K/BB rate in 2014. 45. Luke Bard, RHR, DOB: 11/13/90 2013 GCL/ELZ/A+ (combined stats): 12.1, 3.65, 9/9 (7.4/7.4) Bard has been a disappointing injury case. Now, in 19.1 career innings, he has 16 strikeouts and 16 walks. He remains an interesting prospect but needs to remain healthy in 2014 or his stock will drop even more dramatically. 43. Corey Williams, LHR, DOB: 7/4/90 2013 A+/AA (A+ stats): 45.1, 5.16, 43/23 (9.3/4.7) Williams has stagnated on this list due to a subpar performance in 2013, though I am confident that he can make headway, even by being promoted to the AA bullpen at the beginning of 2014. The lefty had big trouble with the long ball this year, and when a pitcher also walks to many, it is a recipe for disaster. 2014 is an important year for Williams. 36. Daniel Ortiz, OF, LH, DOB: 1/5/90 2013 AA: 521, .258/.301/.405 (.706) (.725), 27-4-12, 27-88, 1-4 Ortiz has a tendency to start seasons very well and then get progressively worse as the season goes on. A great April was followed by consistent decline every month, with a bad August to wrap up the season. Ortiz is very much like Santana, but with some more pop, less contact, and a lot less speed. He might be served best by starting out in New Britain again for 2014 and then work to earn a promotion to Rochester. It is hard, at this point, to imagine Ortiz as anything but a fourth OF, but it will be interesting to watch his power numbers going forward. 28. JD Williams, SH, LF/CF DOB: 11/20/90 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 486, .265/.372/.403 (.775) (.729), 17-6-9, 66-105, 26-13 Williams was looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2012 and he really did so in Cedar Rapids, posting an .852 OPS. His numbers fell after his promotion to Fort Myers 2/3 of the way through the season. There is still quite a bit of promise and Williams is perhaps only second to Buxton in speed in the organization. Much of the drop at A+ came in slugging, so we will see if Williams can get that pop back and force a promotion about 2/3 of the way through 2014. 24. Tyler Duffey, RHS, DOB: 12/27/90 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 121, 3.64, 91/23 (7.6/1.6) Duffey was dominant for Cedar Rapids in the first half of the year. He went through a rough patch in Fort Myers, but that was to be expected. They moved him between the rotation and bullpen, but he still ended with a solid number of innings. He will start next season back in A+. 22. DJ Baxendale, RHS, DOB: 12/8/90 2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 150, 3.90, 112/33 (7.6/1.9) Baxendale was great for Fort Myers at the beginning of the season and a lot of people got very excited about his potential. This was tempered somewhat by his struggles at AA. He has good enough stuff to get his strikeout rate back to around his career level. Look for Baxendale to return to AA and perhaps push his way forward for a serious look in the AFL after next season. 20. Zach Jones, RHR, DOB: 12/4/90 2013 A+: 48.2, 1.85, 70/28 (13.6/5.1) Jones is off to the AFL after a dominant performance out of the bullpen for Fort Myers. The strikeouts are huge. The walks are also huge, but that comes with the territory sometimes. Jones doesn't give up many hits so his WHIP remains low. Should be the closer for New Britain next year. 19. Dalton Hicks, 1B, LH, DOB: 4/2/90 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 576, .289/.358/.468 (.826) (.824), 39-0-17, 56-123, 0-2 Hicks earned a promotion well into 2013 and did fairly well after the move. His 56 extra base hits are impressive and he can work on improving his BB/K rate with a return trip to Fort Myers to start 2014. I would expect Hicks to earn a promotion for the second year in a row at some point during the season. He is a solid all-around prospect who could soon make us forget Chris Parmelee. 17. Kennys Vargas, 1B, SH, DOB: 8/2/90 2013 A+: 520, .267/.344/.468 (.813) (.861), 33-1-19, 50-105, 0-0 Vargas felt the effects of fatigue in his first season with more than 191 plate appearances. The power is there but dropped off considerably in the second half of the season. This is really not something to be too concerned about. Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario also left him for New Britain, so he lost some help in the lineup. He just turned 23, so the majority of his age-24 season will be in AA. 2014 might be telling for Vargas' future in the organization. 16. Danny Santana, SS/2B, SH, DOB: 11/7/90 2013 AA: 587 plate appearances, .297/.333/.386 (.719) (.712 career), 22 doubles, 10 triples, 2 homers, 24 walks, 94 strikeouts, 30 stolen bases, 13 times caught stealing Santana is still mistake-prone at shortstop but the Twins seem set on keeping him there. He went through some natural growing pains in 2013, but had quite similar numbers to his 2012 season in Fort Myers. The power is not there, but the stolen base total is climbing. Santana should begin 2014 with Rosario and Beresford in the Rochester middle infield. 3. Alex Meyer, RHS, DOB: 1/3/90 2013 GLC/AA (AA statistics): 70.0 innings pitched, 3.21 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 (10.4/3.3 career) Meyer gave everyone a scare with an arm injury this year, but things are back on track and he is heading to the AFL to get some innings. Hopefully this will put him on a course for 150 or so innings next year. Meyer appears to be the real deal and it is exciting to see him now on the cusp of competing for a Twins rotation spot. Hopefully the Twins do not repeat the Kyle Gibson experience by not limiting Meyer's AAA innings early in the season. There is no reason that if Meyer dominates AAA that he shouldn't be called up to the Twins for 100 innings or so. There is the 1990 group. Careful observers will note the fact that J.T. Chargois is not listed. This isn't a mistake. He has thrown 16 professional innings and will be basically 24.5 years old by the time he even gets going again in the 2015 season. I am going to keep him off my list until he comes back. 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No to Buxton being up this year. So, replace him with Santana (who is maintaining this excellence so far . . . what the hell??) and this is a good list. Pinto should be the sixth.

In the early-to-mid part of the season, legitimate question marks about the outfield depth were raised. Joe Benson (24, AA/AAA), and Rene Tosoni (26, AA/AAA), the two outfield prospects who spent time with the Twins in 2011, were struggling with injuries. The only prospect having a good year was Oswaldo Arcia. Download attachment: Chris_Parmelee_uspw_6362378.jpg Now at the beginning of September, things have changed dramatically, though it isn't because of Benson or Tosoni. Instead, Oswaldo Arcia (21, AA) and Aaron Hicks (22, AA) have turned in good-to-great seasons at AA. Arcia has not missed a step in his promotion to AA. He posted a .328/.398/.557 line with 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Hicks emerged with a 286/.384/.460 line that amounted to the highest OPS of his career since the GCL in 2008. He also increased his power (13 homers) and stole 32 bases in 43 attempts. The AAA/AAAA contingent of outfielders (Darin Mastroianni, Matt Carson, Evan Bigley and Wilkin Ramirez) provide good 4th and 5th OF options. Chris Herrmann (24, AA), while mainly a catcher this year, still would provide 5th OF status for the Twins and could be a solid bench player for the Twins in the near future. Further down in the organization, Lance Ray (23, A) and Danny Ortiz (22, A) each produced OK seasons, but still show promise and, most importantly, improved overall from 2011. Ray's .234/.327/.403 slash with 13 homers and and improved BB/K rate signals good progress in his development. Ortiz's .269/.313/.424 line with 8 homers is also a step in the right direction, and he was promoted early in the season from low-A. While Angel Morales (22, A) and JD Williams (21, low-A) are now big question marks, Nate Roberts (23, A) has been excellent once again. He posted a .299/.433/.427 slash in his repeat Beloit season and walked more than he struck out (44/37). If healthy in 2013, he could end the season in New Britain. Romy Jimenez (21, Rookie) turned in a great year for E-Town and Candido Pimentel (22, Rookie) had a small breakthrough there while also playing some second base. Most importantly, Max Kepler (19, Rookie) had a huge breakout season and may move on to Beloit next year with increased power and plate discipline. His statistics were a sight for sore eyes: .297/.387/.539 with 16 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 269 plate appearances. He is emerging as a top 10 prospect for the Twins. Finally, Byron Buxton (18, Rookie) was promoted from the GCL and actually improved a bit after the promotion. Dereck Rodriguez (20, Rookie) was very good (.783 OPS) for the GCL Twins and the Danny Valencia trade brought in another quality player in Jeremias Pineda (21, Rookie). While Rodriguez will likely start for E-Town next year, Pineda might move up to Beloit as a 4th OF. I have not discussed Rory Rhodes (21 A/Rookie)--who was a 3B, then a 1B, and is now a potential corner OF--nor did I mention Zach Larson (18, Rookie) or Kelvin Ortiz (20, Rookie) from the GCL. With Benson and Tosoni included, I have mentioned 23 outfield candidates from Mastroianni and Carson currently on the Twins 25 man roster to players drafted in 2012. These players range from potential stars to never-will-make-it-to-The-Show-players, but they are all valuable contributors and demonstrate, as a whole, that there is significant OF depth in the system, especially up through Beloit. Only time will tell with these players, but I think it is now safe to say that there really is OF depth in the Twins' system. Click here to view the article

The thing about prospects is that they can come out of nowhere. Josmil Pinto is a perfect example. Acquiring sub-250 prospects is still worth it. Good grief that averages to the top 8-9 per team. I would trade Willingham for a J.D. Williams or a Tyler Duffey or a Stuart Turner.

It's all looking pretty good now! Really do like that "guitar pick" a lot.

Berry was a guy I discussed last season for Morneau.

There's still a few million for Willingham and about two for Correia.

Well I would honestly probably trade Willingham for Hudson Boyd right now, so . . . I am just saying that there has to be a young fringer in A ball that could be had. This AAAA stuff is really irritating, especially given the presence of people like Pino, Johnson, Darnell, Achter, Tonkin, Beresford, Romero, Ortiz, and then actual prospects.

I realize that this is not something the Twins will likely do, in fact, it is extremely doubtful, but one has to wonder about the trade value of some of these players going up if they came at no cost. The payroll is low already and if the Twins just kept these guys they would be paying this amount anyway. Maybe the Twins could save a few hundred thousand on Willingham and Correia, but they could also be offering these players for no cost other than the mid-tier prospects in return. Suzuki should get a top 250 prospect, Willingham and Fien top 500, Duensing and Correia top 1000. This should happen and the Stephen Pryors of the world should not be a part of the equation.

In all of these trades, the Twins should be focusing on young and very young prospects, and not mid-20s AAA players likely for a years-long AAAA role.

What an assortment of players to choose from! Chris Parmelee is the first obvious choice. The Twins could also see Santana out there. The could also see Plouffe out there. They could also bring Hicks back for the spot. They could call up Danny Ortiz in September.

The Morales trade for Pryor does not give me good feelings (that was an atrocious idea). But I still would like to see Suzuki, Fien, Willingham, Correia, and Duensing traded for sure. I also like the idea of trading either Plouffe or Escobar because there is some real value there. Escobar could be one of the very best utility infielders in the league if kept in that role. Also, Jared Burton . . . a full eating of his salary would be necessary, but at least the Twins might get a player back.

Plouffe has some value right now and it isn't clear that Deibinson Romero is so grotesquely worse to hold 3B down until Miguel Sano. If I knew Plouffe was going to be used as a four corners utility player, especially against lefties, then that would be great. Need a different manager, of course.

Also, let us not forget Terry Ryan's remarks about Eric Fryer in that interview for Twins Daily. Never forget.

Another year and nearly the exact same thing results. I was pretty vocal last offseason about demanding accountability from the top on down through the pitching coach and then also with key people in the minors (Steil, in particular, and now Johnson as well). There was a lot of "well, the manager doesn't really do anything" kind of talk in response. What about now? Antony already showed me that he cannot be TR's successor. So . . . a total revamping is necessary. And a total commitment to the youth movement needs to start. It should have started this year. Hicks-Santana-Arcia in the OF, Pinto up, May, Meyer, Achter, Oliveros up (some of this may still happen . . .).

Download attachment: Anthony Slama 600.jpg When coming to form one's beliefs or making evaluations about things, the rather vast ocean between blind faith and evidence sets up a stark contrast in reasoned (or un-reasoned) judgment. This post is not about evolution or theism, but about something much less important in the grand scheme of things. This post is about the Twins' evaluation of Anthony Slama. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Let's first examine the evidence, sticking to Slama's minor league and major league statistics. In parts of four seasons in AAA Rochester, Slama has 146 2/3 inning pitched, a 2.21 ERA, 183 K, 72 BB (2.54 K/BB), and a 1.152 WHIP. In 2012, Slama has improved upon the K/BB rate (3.0) with a whopping 15.1 K/9 together with a 5 BB/9. Let me repeat, this year he has been striking out 15 batters per 9 innings. With such impressive AAA stats (and much the same or better at the lower levels in the minors), certainly Slama has seen ample time up with the Twins, right? He pitched 4 2/3 innings in 2010 and 2 1/3 innings in 2011. Yes, the guy striking out AAA batters at an incredibly high rate has only seven total innings up with the Twins. So, clearly stats lie, in the view of the relevant decision makers for the Twins. What, then, are the Twins basing their evaluation of Slama on instead? I submit that it is blind faith, but more importantly it is blind faith in their (the Twins' decision makers) ability to evaluate players and make projections into the major league future. Slama does not "have the stuff" and Gardenhire himself has made the claim that Slama's fastball is too straight vertically and horizontally for the majors, or in his eloquent words, "up here you've got to make it do something." Instead of using the evidence of Slama's AAA success to make a reasonable projection about his MLB projected performance, the Twins would rather rely on the faith they have in their seeing-eye assessment of Slama's stuff. AAA batters are actually pretty well-equipped to hit straight fastballs as well (in fact, that is usually the one thing hitters in AAA can do, even if they can't hit anything else and never make it to the majors). I could perhaps forgive this blind faith evaluation (in their own talents as evaluators, not in Slama) if the Twins A: had a bullpen full of better pitchers who were going to mean something for the Twins in the future, and B: if the Twins were in a division or wild card race and couldn't afford 20 innings given to a reliever they were leery of promoting. But neither A or B are true. While, Alex Burnett has been incredibly lucky not to get destroyed this year, he does have an option left and that should not be burned this season (it will next season, trust me!). But Jeff Gray is a pitching abomination. He (like Burnett) walks almost as many as he strikes out and he isn't striking many out to begin with. He has somehow been given 51 2/3 innings to pitch this year. And Gray has no future with the Twins, isn't getting better, and will be 31 in a few months. It is mind-boggling to me to consider the thought process involved in keeping Jeff Gray on the roster instead of Anthony Slama. Now, plenty of people at Twins Daily will wonder why one might complain about the last bullpen spot on a horrible team. Well, first, I am for improving the team at all roster spots if possible and it never matters how good or bad the team is in the first place. Second, is that there has to be some kind of justice in the baseball world! Anthony Slama deserves an opportunity with the Twins. We are also talking about livelihoods here as well. I have come to the point where I actually believe that the Twins are not promoting Slama because they are scared that he will succeed. That would prove them wrong and would make them have to question how they evaluate pitchers. The faithful do not like either of those two things happening. Click here to view the article

I contend that there is no reason to keep certain players who are blocking prospects in the minor league system. I cannot imagine that minor league attendance is really driven by aging players. From Rochester: Chris Rahl Eric Farris Doug Bernier Mark Hamburger Aaron Thompson (potential add-on trade bait) Kris Johnson (I know, but the future? potential add-on trade bait) To Rochester, given these 6 moves: Kennys Vargas Aaron Hicks Eddie Rosario Ryan O'Rourke Cole Johnson Jim Fuller

Correia has about 2 million bucks left on this contract? If the Twins were offering Correia and the bulk of this $2 million, they might be able to actually get someone. Someone who is comparable in overall quality to Stephen Pryor but not some AAAA player like Pryor.

Salcedo still could end up being a very good prospect. If he can get his AA numbers more closely aligned with his A+ numbers, it will be good. Of course then he will be just another reliever behind stars like Stephen Pryor.

In the remainder of the season, I would like to see the following: 1. The Twins trade Kurt Suzuki for a top 150 prospect, Josh Willingham for a top 300 prospect, Casey Fien for a top 500 prospect, Eduardo Escobar for a top 700 prospect, Kevin Correia for a top 1000 prospect, and Brian Duensing for a top 1000 prospect. 2. I would *really* like for the first three of those to happen. 3. Jared Burton gone and Alex Meyer called up to the bullpen. 4. Trevor May called up to start. 5. Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann to be the sole catchers post Suzuki. 6. Kennys Vargas, Danny Ortiz, and James Beresford to be called up in September for position player additions, and the subsequent and easy 40-man decisions to be made for the latter two. 7. Michael Tonkin, AJ Achter, and Lester Oliveros to be called up for pitching additions, with the easy 40-man moves to be made for the latter two here as well. 8. Some of those 40-man moves can be made through trading the above no-future as Twins players, at least not for guys who have to be added to the 40-man right away. 9. All trades must be for A or maybe AA players and pitchers. 10. Aaron Hicks gets promoted to AAA, as does Eddie Rosario. 11. Byron Buxton and Nate Roberts get promoted to AA. 12. All other proper promotions occur, giving prospects some time at a higher level before next season begins.