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Everything posted by Shane Wahl
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Parmelee has limited upside and is bad this year so far. I would like for him to do well in order to be trade bait, indeed.
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I actually think that Doumit and Carroll are the most likely first. Then Willingham. Then Morneau (seriously, I think TR and co. REALLY don't want to part ways with him). Doumit will fit somewhere in the AL and Carroll in the NL (Atlanta, perhaps). Willingham and Morneau are next. Burton might be another. GOOD GOD let's hope that Correia is still legit at the deadline. If the Twins could get some 100-300 top prospects for these guys it would be a very good thing.
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Should the Twins lock up a young standout?
Shane Wahl replied to Danchat's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Rizzo should fire his damn agent. -
Near and Far, 1: Positional Analysis (1B)
Shane Wahl commented on Shane Wahl's blog entry in Field of Twins
This is the first part in a series examining the Twins system, position-by-position in order to get both a near and long-term perspective of Twins' system. With regard to first base, there are a number of question marks, certainly, but it also seems to be the case that there is some hope both in the near future and definitely down the road. Let's go from top to bottom, starting with the Twins: Minnesota: Justin Morneau: LH, DOB: 5-15-81. STATS: .296/.340/.415 (.755), 10 doubles/0 triples/2 homers, 10 bb-22 k, 0-0 sb-cs. Morneau is in the final year of his contract and will have about $4 million left on his contract at the trade deadline. But I would not count those chickens before they hatch. The Twins may see Morneau as an integral part of the near future which will see some key prospects start to bloom. His injury history may give pause, but there is no doubt that he is starting to really come on this season and is a different player. He is really producing with RISP right now and the lack of homer power shouldn't be a cause for concern. Of course, the expected improvement coming for the rest of the season both makes his resigning with the Twins and his being traded more probable. There is the potential option of trading Morneau for some top 100-200 prospect at the deadline and then signing him in the offseason. That would be potentially ideal, especially given the Chris Parmelee situation. Chris Parmelee: LH, DOB: 2/24/1988. STATS: .214/.301/.337 (.638), 3/0/3, 11-28, 1-1. Parmelee has been in RF this year and has been a competent defender out there. People seem to assume that Parmelee is the heir-apparent to Morneau's position, but Parmelee is certainly not really built like a first baseman and may have a future as a platoon player or bench bat. He was dominant in AAA last year and I do believe that he is a competent player, but so was Ron Coomer. Parmelee is a player who I view as having no real long-term future with the Twins and he if does have such a future than it is likely a bad sign for the development of many prospects in the system who would have to basically flame out in order to cement Parmelee on the Twins roster. This isn't a knock on him, but just the reality of the potential future for the Twins. I would like to see Parmelee succeed this year to the point that some team will like his ability enough to trade some mid-level prospect for him. Rochester: Chris Colabello: RH, DOB: 10/24/83. STATS: .326/.384/.574 (.958), 11/0/8, 14-32, 0-1. Colabello is a great story of perseverance, but that is also means that he is in his prime right now. This means he should be looked upon as the next guy to be "a bench bat" if the Twins decide to go with a 11-man pitching staff or if Wilkin Ramirez or someone like Morneau, Parmelee, or Arcia go to the DL. He is almost certainly guaranteed a September spot on the roster at the very least. He has proved all he need to in order to earn a chance. The Twins will be looking to use him as soon as possible. Jeff Clement: LH, DOB: 8/21/1983. STATS: .179/.243/.255 (.498), 2/0/2, 9-26, 0-0. Clement may be on his last leg as a contending major league baseball player. On paper he looks like he could be a contributor, but then he plays and it all goes south. Only a series of injuries to two of the three players above him could change his status as AAA-filler. And AAA-filler is not something I particularly like, especially when it is obvious that many prospects could use some AAA time. Nathan Hanson: RH, DOB: 2/8/87. STATS (AA/AAA): .287/.368/.406 (.773), 3/0/3, 11-18, 0-0. Hanson has dramatically improved his performance over the rest of his minor league career this year. While he has not been in position to play first base this year, this is the place where he has played the most in his minor league career. He is a potential super-utility option as he has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in significant doses. He is someone to watch as a Chanhassen native looking to crack the big leagues . . . as a better version of Brian Dinkelman. New Britain: Reynaldo Rodriguez:, RH, DOB: 2-7-86. STATS: .217/.315./.453 (.767), 9/2/4, 15-27, 2-1. Rodriguez is true organizational filler, and Deibinson Romero is coming to encroach on his time anyway. This spot in New Britain is a temporary placeholder for a prospect from Fort Myers, most likely Kennys Vargas. Fort Myers: Kennys Vargas: SH, DOB: 8-1-90. STATS: .271/.354/.496 (.850), 9/1/6, 16-31, 0-0. Vargas is almost a luxury. He is a power hitter with massive potential. His ISO numbers for 2013 are pretty much right between his fantastic 2012 season and his good 2011 season. He can certainly hit and seems to be a competent defensive first baseman right now. He's a career .890 OPS guy and is someone to watch the rest of the season and next season. If he continues to produce like this, the Twins are going to have a lot of positional and roster decisions to make. Lance Ray: LH, DOB: 9-2-89. STATS: .206/.276/.265 (.541), 4/0/0, 7-12, 1-1. Ray has been injured this year and this accounts for some of his struggles. He has been a decent player in the minors, but nothing too overwhelm. The rest of 2013 in Fort Myers is important for him as his development may either stagnate or warrant continued development in the system. His ability to play both corner OF positions and first base is an asset. Michael Gonzales: LH, DOB: 6-16-88. STATS: .238/.338/.476 (.814), 1/1/4, 10-17, 0-0. The big first baseman is injured, but his OPS has jumped 100 points in his second go-around with Fort Myers so far. He is another guy with good power and whose 2013 is a very important season. A healthy rest of the season is going to be vital for his development. I would like to see him see AA pitching this year. Drew Leachman: RH, DOB: 4-21-89. STATS: .239/.288/.284 (572), 1/1/0, 4-9, 1-1. Leachman was promoted to Fort Myers after a solid start at Cedar Rapids. He is very similar to Lance Ray, but with less power. He can play the corner OF positions along with 1B. He probably will remain in Fort Myers this year to see if he can handle better pitching. Cedar Rapids: Dalton Hicks: LH, DOB: 4-2-90. STATS: .288/.362/.485 (.847), 11/0/5, 15-28, 0-0. Hicks has emerged this year as a solid middle of the order hitter with good power and decent plate discipline. He is bad against lefties, but great against righties, so the sky may not be the limit for Hicks. That said, he will continue to get better and will likely pass a few of the guys above him over the next year. EST: Rory Rhodes: RH, DOB: 7-28-91. STATS (cumulative minor league career): .242/.328/.383 (.711), 46/7/19, 97-269, 11-11. Rhodes was demoted from low-A back down to E-Town last year. He hit well at the latter destination and should be ready to serve as a replacement in Cedar Rapids once some of those guys get promoted. He has decent power, but strikes out an awful lot. He is still pretty young, though, and may simply have issues with the fact that he is 6'9" and a bit lanky. I imagine long swings may be an issue. Bryan Haar: RH, DOB: 12-9-89. STATS (2012): .250/.319/.345 (.664), 9/1/1, 13-35, 3-3. Haar was drafted in the 34th round last year and did not put up very strong numbers. He is receiving instruction right now and should be headed to E-Town once that season starts. He is definitely in a make or break season at age 23 in rookie ball. Conclusion The Twins are better stocked at this position than they have been in the recent past. Players like Colabello, Vargas, and Hicks have created nice depth at this position across the board. I have toyed with the idea that the Twins should try to trade both Morneau and Parmelee since there is good value in the former and no real Twins future with the latter. Certainly there could be a movement up for many of these players this year. -
This is the first part in a series examining the Twins system, position-by-position in order to get both a near and long-term perspective of Twins' system. With regard to first base, there are a number of question marks, certainly, but it also seems to be the case that there is some hope both in the near future and definitely down the road. Let's go from top to bottom, starting with the Twins: Minnesota: Justin Morneau: LH, DOB: 5-15-81. STATS: .296/.340/.415 (.755), 10 doubles/0 triples/2 homers, 10 bb-22 k, 0-0 sb-cs. Morneau is in the final year of his contract and will have about $4 million left on his contract at the trade deadline. But I would not count those chickens before they hatch. The Twins may see Morneau as an integral part of the near future which will see some key prospects start to bloom. His injury history may give pause, but there is no doubt that he is starting to really come on this season and is a different player. He is really producing with RISP right now and the lack of homer power shouldn't be a cause for concern. Of course, the expected improvement coming for the rest of the season both makes his resigning with the Twins and his being traded more probable. There is the potential option of trading Morneau for some top 100-200 prospect at the deadline and then signing him in the offseason. That would be potentially ideal, especially given the Chris Parmelee situation. Chris Parmelee: LH, DOB: 2/24/1988. STATS: .214/.301/.337 (.638), 3/0/3, 11-28, 1-1. Parmelee has been in RF this year and has been a competent defender out there. People seem to assume that Parmelee is the heir-apparent to Morneau's position, but Parmelee is certainly not really built like a first baseman and may have a future as a platoon player or bench bat. He was dominant in AAA last year and I do believe that he is a competent player, but so was Ron Coomer. Parmelee is a player who I view as having no real long-term future with the Twins and he if does have such a future than it is likely a bad sign for the development of many prospects in the system who would have to basically flame out in order to cement Parmelee on the Twins roster. This isn't a knock on him, but just the reality of the potential future for the Twins. I would like to see Parmelee succeed this year to the point that some team will like his ability enough to trade some mid-level prospect for him. Rochester: Chris Colabello: RH, DOB: 10/24/83. STATS: .326/.384/.574 (.958), 11/0/8, 14-32, 0-1. Colabello is a great story of perseverance, but that is also means that he is in his prime right now. This means he should be looked upon as the next guy to be "a bench bat" if the Twins decide to go with a 11-man pitching staff or if Wilkin Ramirez or someone like Morneau, Parmelee, or Arcia go to the DL. He is almost certainly guaranteed a September spot on the roster at the very least. He has proved all he need to in order to earn a chance. The Twins will be looking to use him as soon as possible. Jeff Clement: LH, DOB: 8/21/1983. STATS: .179/.243/.255 (.498), 2/0/2, 9-26, 0-0. Clement may be on his last leg as a contending major league baseball player. On paper he looks like he could be a contributor, but then he plays and it all goes south. Only a series of injuries to two of the three players above him could change his status as AAA-filler. And AAA-filler is not something I particularly like, especially when it is obvious that many prospects could use some AAA time. Nathan Hanson: RH, DOB: 2/8/87. STATS (AA/AAA): .287/.368/.406 (.773), 3/0/3, 11-18, 0-0. Hanson has dramatically improved his performance over the rest of his minor league career this year. While he has not been in position to play first base this year, this is the place where he has played the most in his minor league career. He is a potential super-utility option as he has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in significant doses. He is someone to watch as a Chanhassen native looking to crack the big leagues . . . as a better version of Brian Dinkelman. New Britain: Reynaldo Rodriguez:, RH, DOB: 2-7-86. STATS: .217/.315./.453 (.767), 9/2/4, 15-27, 2-1. Rodriguez is true organizational filler, and Deibinson Romero is coming to encroach on his time anyway. This spot in New Britain is a temporary placeholder for a prospect from Fort Myers, most likely Kennys Vargas. Fort Myers: Kennys Vargas: SH, DOB: 8-1-90. STATS: .271/.354/.496 (.850), 9/1/6, 16-31, 0-0. Vargas is almost a luxury. He is a power hitter with massive potential. His ISO numbers for 2013 are pretty much right between his fantastic 2012 season and his good 2011 season. He can certainly hit and seems to be a competent defensive first baseman right now. He's a career .890 OPS guy and is someone to watch the rest of the season and next season. If he continues to produce like this, the Twins are going to have a lot of positional and roster decisions to make. Lance Ray: LH, DOB: 9-2-89. STATS: .206/.276/.265 (.541), 4/0/0, 7-12, 1-1. Ray has been injured this year and this accounts for some of his struggles. He has been a decent player in the minors, but nothing too overwhelm. The rest of 2013 in Fort Myers is important for him as his development may either stagnate or warrant continued development in the system. His ability to play both corner OF positions and first base is an asset. Michael Gonzales: LH, DOB: 6-16-88. STATS: .238/.338/.476 (.814), 1/1/4, 10-17, 0-0. The big first baseman is injured, but his OPS has jumped 100 points in his second go-around with Fort Myers so far. He is another guy with good power and whose 2013 is a very important season. A healthy rest of the season is going to be vital for his development. I would like to see him see AA pitching this year. Drew Leachman: RH, DOB: 4-21-89. STATS: .239/.288/.284 (572), 1/1/0, 4-9, 1-1. Leachman was promoted to Fort Myers after a solid start at Cedar Rapids. He is very similar to Lance Ray, but with less power. He can play the corner OF positions along with 1B. He probably will remain in Fort Myers this year to see if he can handle better pitching. Cedar Rapids: Dalton Hicks: LH, DOB: 4-2-90. STATS: .288/.362/.485 (.847), 11/0/5, 15-28, 0-0. Hicks has emerged this year as a solid middle of the order hitter with good power and decent plate discipline. He is bad against lefties, but great against righties, so the sky may not be the limit for Hicks. That said, he will continue to get better and will likely pass a few of the guys above him over the next year. EST: Rory Rhodes: RH, DOB: 7-28-91. STATS (cumulative minor league career): .242/.328/.383 (.711), 46/7/19, 97-269, 11-11. Rhodes was demoted from low-A back down to E-Town last year. He hit well at the latter destination and should be ready to serve as a replacement in Cedar Rapids once some of those guys get promoted. He has decent power, but strikes out an awful lot. He is still pretty young, though, and may simply have issues with the fact that he is 6'9" and a bit lanky. I imagine long swings may be an issue. Bryan Haar: RH, DOB: 12-9-89. STATS (2012): .250/.319/.345 (.664), 9/1/1, 13-35, 3-3. Haar was drafted in the 34th round last year and did not put up very strong numbers. He is receiving instruction right now and should be headed to E-Town once that season starts. He is definitely in a make or break season at age 23 in rookie ball. Conclusion The Twins are better stocked at this position than they have been in the recent past. Players like Colabello, Vargas, and Hicks have created nice depth at this position across the board. I have toyed with the idea that the Twins should try to trade both Morneau and Parmelee since there is good value in the former and no real Twins future with the latter. Certainly there could be a movement up for many of these players this year.
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I want Doumit to hit like a damn beast until the trade deadline. Then it's time to move on with Pinto (and hopefully Herrmann . . .).
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Because magically he is going to be able to hit RH pitching from the right side after not doing it for years?
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Also, Buxton is not going to be competition for Hicks. At all. I would think that an OF of X-Buxton-Hicks is the long-term idea.
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So he really hasn't been that slow in improving this year. That's a big jump from the horrific start. And clearly he should not be demoted. That would be a ridiculous move at this point.
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Souhan: Time Running Out On Some Players
Shane Wahl replied to gunnarthor's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Souhan is ridiculous. Doesn't everyone understand this by now? A. What is so wrong with Plouffe's performance this year? B. Dozier has showed glimpses of offensive adequacy while being a middle infielder. And he has been a pretty good middle infielder. C. Parmelee was MESSED WITH last year and now is being messed with again to some extent. I do agree that I don't think he is a long-term guy for the Twins and should be traded when he hits his peak this year (probably around deadline). D. Worley is a good pitcher who has struggled so far in half of his starts. He is going to be just fine and can work into a GOOD team's rotation as the 4th or 5th starter. He has a lot ahead of him. If, by some point in 2014, Diamond and Worley are the 4th and 5th starters for this team, then all is going to be very good. -
1. Hicks was already slowly improving. I think this might speed it up somewhat so that the next six weeks has him at .210/.315/.350. This is just the start. 2. I would absolutely have said NO and that he should have been in AAA. However, the Twins have now managed to be 18-17 while Hicks was doing this. I think this is going to work out well for both Hicks and the Twins. 3. The view for me hasn't changed, though I see a struggle in the short-term and that is against RH pitching. There is going to be a problem here. Last year was strong for him in AA because he started to correct his split problem. We CANNOT expect him to continue that improvement at this level. I can't believe I ignored this specific problem until now. But as a RH against lefties, he can be a competent hitter right now. And the defense is still pretty good this year.
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Also, this is where Mauer's doubles-power makes him not a good leadoff candidate. There is a tradeoff in OBP and SLG between the one and two spots. The best overall batter should bat second. Full stop. I kinda think that going forward only Hicks or Carroll should occupy the leadoff spot. Unless Escobar keeps it going.
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Hicks should be returning there soon. This will set it all back in place. I really would just start Carroll at SS or 2B and bat him leadoff until they are comfy with Hicks back leading off.
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Yes, I would recommend pretty much ignoring dWAR and looking only at oWAR.
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"Why WAR is the worst stat ever" does NOT equate with "too many people use that particular metric as the final analysis" AT ALL, sbk! Anyway, on BR, Kershaw's WAR is 2.3. Punto's 1.1. Good god.
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Justin Morneau staying or leaving?
Shane Wahl replied to Brodin4Calder's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Morneau for a 100-200 prospect (think May, Kepler, Berrios, Polanco) would be fine enough for me! -
Can you explain what the issue is here? Punto is strangely having a RIDICULOUS season. Maybe OPS is horrible too since he has an OPS of .880???? How is WAR not measuring his performance right now?
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I certainly would not be thrilled with Alex Meyer as a setup man. Meyer heading the rotation with Gibson is . . . the point for the near future.
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Ramirez really has done everything asked of him and he has been valuable in his limited time. I wouldn't count on Mastro being with the Twins for awhile yet. Rehab and whatnot.
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Watch These Straight People Answer A Question Gay People Have Been Asked For Years Good video.
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This thread got a bit wild. Not sure how anyone could possibly see this as self-serving. The dude isn't some dumbass looking for fame. He realized that he needed to be a leader since--other than Griner--no one had yet stepped forward. The "league" doesn't find roster spots for players. Individual teams do. Collins is likely a 12/13th player, going back and forth between being active and inactive. But he will likely be on someone's playoff roster next year as a third center. Clearly OKC could use someone like him right now against Memphis.
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What A Week Of Groceries Looks Like Around The World | Fstoppers Just thought I would share this. It's pretty damn interesting. Chad is a hectic one. Um, as is America. For totally different reasons.
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Should Pedro Hernandez Remain in the Rotation?
Shane Wahl replied to bwille's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Nominee for most abominable post I have seen at TD . . .- 27 replies
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