Shane Wahl

Fantastic first post. I basically agree with 95% of this.

Nolasco is Correia+. Is that not sinking in? That means his value is something more akin to the Arroyo 2/$16 million mark. How is this not clear? There are people here willing to sink $50 million over 4 years for a 4th starter?

gunnarthor, I will take that bet. MLB with some sort of qualifying number of plate appearances. Anyway, where is the evidence that Pinto was better defensively than Herrmann? That has never been true in the minors. The "angst" is about the TR interview coupled with this. My guess is that they found out what Salty and A.J. wanted, potentially, and decided to get serious about the 28-year-old Eric Fryer as a major leaguer.

What on earth is that picture!!!!???? Haha.

I would bet cash money that Herrmann would have a better offensive year than Eric Fryer. And Fryer certainly would not even have been remotely considered by any other team in the rule 5 draft.

On what planet is Nolasco better than Arroyo (other than strikeouts)?

Nolasco is Correia+. That's it. Are people even looking at his career numbers? He was above average in 2013 (though barely by ERA+). Before that? Below average for 4 years in a row. It's pretty confusing how he is going to get something like 4 years and $52 million. If the Twins did that I would throw up.

This kind of thing honestly makes me kinda hope for a loss of somebody in the rule 5. As a kind of punishment for dumb roster moves. Clearly middle relievers are pretty replaceable, but I would like to see players who have come up through the system get a chance. Losing a Dakota Watts isn't that big of a deal, but if such a thing happens it is because of Eric Fryer. This should come as no surprise given that, I believe, Fryer was the first "positive" mentioned in that interview in the handbook. Am I wrong about that? Wasn't he actually the first person named by Terry Ryan? They are not adding another catcher, I can almost guarantee you that.

This just blows my mind. It blows my mind. It blows it completely out of this universe. Good god!!! And are people STILL going to be willing to criticize me for that TR interview in the handbook about TR mentioning Fryer as a positive? This blows my mind.

The two seasons on either side of that bad 2011 season are creepily similar.

I predict a very Pavanoesque contract coming for Arroyo. There are too many teams looking for a consistent, low-risk guy like Arroyo. I will predict he ends up in San Francisco.

Yeah consistency is important. And one might believe that the homers drop in TF. Also, anything that keeps Arroyo from retiring and pursuing his "music" career is good.

The Lincecum deal is informative. I really, really doubt that Kazmir is going for less than $10 million a year.

2 years and $25 million? Clearly, I would do that, but I am just pointing out that these predictions that are so low are silly. Kazmir and Hughes will sign for similar money though thee years might be different.

Pinto's total year last year was ridiculously good offensively and he is just a bit below and average defensive catcher. Herrmann is a slightly above average defensive catcher now and will become an average offensive backup catcher. Why spend money on this instead of starting pitching . . . blows my mind.

Damn, I need to see the rest of this! I don't know who would be involved in such a thing.

I will say that Arroyo and Kendrys Morales (to hell with Doumit as DH) provide an appealing thing: crazy consistency. Look up their stats. It's weird how consistent they are.

This gets tricky. I would say that if the Twins cannot get TWO of E. Santana, Jimenez, Hughes, Kazmir, Haren, and Hudson (maybe a few others) than Arroyo is going to make sense. Arroyo is significantly better than Nolasco, who is somehow being considered for 3 or 4 years by some around here. Arroyo's issue is with the homers. He is Brad Radke, essentially. Brad Radke in TF would have been of some value. I have no problem with a two-year commitment to Arroyo as long as they really make an attempt at the other guys too.

Think about this possible vs. LH/RH lineup situation if all goes according to Shane's plan in 2014: vs. LH Hicks, LF Mauer, 1B Buxton, CF Sano, 3B Plouffe, DH Pinto, C Dozier, SS Arcia, RF Rosario, 2B And vs. RH: Rosario, 2B Mauer, 1B Arcia, DH Sano, 3B Buxton, CF Hicks, LF Parmelee, RF Pinto/Herrmann C Dozier, SS

I'm in the group that likes the idea of not bothering with at most a 1-win difference in signing some catcher for millions of bucks and instead putting that money towards signing a better pitcher. 2014 is a joke. We have to admit that. It won't be a joke in terms of actually WATCHING the Twins if they decide to A: Get some quality pitching via free agency, and B: go with the youth movement in general. I will resign myself to some total farce of a lineup involving Willingham, Doumit, and Presley. And it seems possible that Fryer is involved in this too, unless the Twins "score" AJ or someone like that. I means it's totally absurd to not just trade these aging, no future, players away (Willingham and Doumit, and pay much of the salary to trade them away for mid-level prospects) immediately, but that is not how it is going to work. I see a real possibility that the lineup looks like this opening day: Presley, CF Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Willingham, LF Doumit, DH Plouffe, 3B Parmelee, RF Fryer, C Florimon SS And I am not kidding. Spots 1, 4, 5, and 8 occupied by players who are not going to be relevant for the future. The idea that some people seem to have involves: A: wins in 2014 are important because, hey, maybe the Twins . . . (make the playoffs or something????) B: The youth movement must be delayed, because . . . (well that involves A). C: It is GUARANTEED that playing aging, declining veterans is going to bring about more wins in 2014 than playing prospects and other viable minor leaguers. I would call garbage on that. A lineup vs. righties of: Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Arcia, DH Parmelee, RF Plouffe, 3B Hicks, CF Pinto/Herrmann C Presley LF Florimon SS and vs. lefties: Hicks, CF Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Plouffe, DH Pinto, C Romero, 3B Arcia, RF Presley, LF Florimon, SS (bench: Herrmann, Colabello, Escobar, Romero) Works for me. It works because it is utilizing players in real ways to maximize their potential. It works because there are holes to be filled by prospects like Sano, Rosario, and Buxton. It works because the actual win-loss in 2014 is unclear in terms of favoring millions spent on players vs. hundreds of thousands spent on players already in the system. It works because developing the core is the primary concern, but developing the role players around the core is secondarily necessary and so 2015 has to be in mind. It works because the money saved can be put to good use.

Just started watching some. Looks good. I am probably going to finish watching tomorrow. Joe Mauer should be the first baseman. He still would be better than Willingham and Arcia in left, though.

People are basically writing him off even though he is still getting used to the league. I think he can be a high-600s OPS guy, which for a backup catcher/fifth outfielder is not bad when coupled with average defense.

Exactly.

Turner is three years away and it isn't clear that he is going to be good anyway. Pinto and Herrmann can get the job done in 2014. All money should be thrown towards starting pitching.

A good defensive catcher is not more valuable than an above average to good starting pitcher. Not even close. Again, Herrmann and Pinto average out to an average defensive catcher.