Shane Wahl

I would pay Santana more than you want, Jimenez less than you want, and certainly Nolasco WAY less than you want. 4 years and $50+ million for Nolasco is insanity! He is Correia+.

Unless the Twins get McCann or Salty, there is no reason whatsoever to throw money at a catcher. A.J. is not a serious contender. Good lord.

This continues my prospect countdown. This is quite an interesting mix of players, for Minier to D. Romero, and the inclusion of Nate Roberts and Adrian Salcedo. 40. Amaurys Minier, 3B, SH, DOB: 1/30/96 2013 GCL: 119 PA, .214/.252/.455 (.707), 5 doubles, 2 triples, 6 homers, 6 walks, 29 strikeouts, 1 stolen base, 1 time caught stealing There should be a fair amount of excitement surrounding Minier as he put up these numbers in the GCL before his 18th birthday. The slugging is impressive, so it is important to watch his contact rate when he moves up to E-Town in 2014. He could fly up this list if he starts out strong there. 39. Logan Darnell, LHS , DOB: 2-2-89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 153.2 innings pitched, 3.22 ERA, 120/45 (6.2/2.5 career rates) Darnell bounced back from a lackluster 2012 to pitch effectively. He has brought his strikeout rate up nicely in 2013 and could factor in as a lefty out of the bullpen if needed for the Twins or he could be a rotation piece if the Twins aren't especially active in free agency this offseason. He will start with Rochester to begin the season. 38. Levi Michael, SS/2B, SH, DOB: 2/9/91 2013 A+: 375, .229/.331/.340 (.670) (.659), 15-4-4, 49-67, 21-2 Michael has now fallen from around the 20-25 range on my list to 38, and much of his continued presence on this list has to do with the hope that, when fully healthy, Michael can build upon minute improvements made so far and emerge as a legitimate prospect. His stolen base numbers were impressive this year, but not much else is, including his defense. Even though he hasn't really earned the promotion, the time has likely come to push Michael to New Britain to see if he can get on track. 37. Deibinson Romero, 3B/1B, RH, DOB: 9/24/86 2013 AA/AAA (stats from AAA): 358, .266/.369/.421 (.790) (.759), 15-1-10, 47-75 , 4-0 Romero is an adequate defensive third baseman and has also played first. His future looked very bright about four years ago but then the Twins soured on him and he has been a slow-mover in the system. That said, the Twins ought to be feeling tired with Trevor Plouffe, and especially with Trevor Plouffe at third base. Furthermore, he could be a nice RH bat off the bench. Finally, if Miguel Sano is not ready at the beginning of 2014, Romero could be the fill-in if the Twins either move Plouffe via trade or via position change. 36. Nate Roberts, LF/RF, LH, DOB: 2/25/89 2013 A+ 5 .250/.400/.500 (.900) (.897), 1-0-0, 0-0, 0-0 Roberts played in one game in 2013 and he maintained his crazy HBP standard by getting plunked. This injury business is killing his career and hopefully he can have a healthy 2014. The Twins really just need to move him to AA and hope he is healthy--there is no point for him to play at lower levels at this point. There is significant potential here and it is a shame that it is going to waste. 35. Daniel Ortiz, OF, LH, DOB: 1/5/902013 AA: 521, .258/.301/.405 (.706) (.725), 27-4-12, 27-88, 1-4 Ortiz has a tendency to start out seasons very well and then get progressively worse as the season goes on. A great April was followed by consistent decline every month, with a bad August to wrap up the season. Ortiz is very much like Danny Santana, but with some more pop, less contact, and a lot less speed. He might be served best by starting out in New Britain again for 2014 and then work to earn a promotion to Rochester. It is hard, at this point, to imagine Ortiz as anything but a fourth OF, but it will be interesting to watch his power numbers going forward. 34. Adrian Salcedo, RHP, DOB: 2/5/91 2013 A+: 58.1 innings, 3.70 ERA, 54 strikeouts, 15 walks (7.2/1.8 career) Salcedo will be 23 on opening day 2014 and he will likely be in New Britain. That isn't far off from the projection in 2009 and 2010 when Salcedo showed great promise. 2011 was a down year for the most part, and 2012 was a disaster with an injury. Salcedo was very effective in the bullpen in Fort Myers this year. The key question is whether or not the Twins view him as a starter or not. I honestly do not think so, and I believe he should be at the back end of the New Britain bullpen for 2014. Salcedo has appeared to right himself and this year is going to be huge for him. 33. Matthew Summers, RHS, DOB: 8/17/89 2013 AA/A+ (combined stats): 142.2, 3.09, 100/46 (6.7/3.2) 2013 was a season of solid improvement for Summers. He is inching his K rate up and lowered his walk rate. He is keeping the hits down both in number and literally--he gave up only three homers all year. If that stat is not a fluke than his future is promising as he climbs the ladder. 2014 should see him start in New Britain. 32. James Beresford, 2B/SS/3B, LH, DOB: 1/19/89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 403, .306/.363/.346 (.708) (.671), 12-1-0, 30/51, 10/2 Beresford is a good defender in the middle infield and has been consistent with the bat, especially since 2010. He possesses no power and will survive if he hits well, draws some walks, and is surrounded by guys with big bats like Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Kennys Vargas. It is not clear why he hasn't played SS much more this year because he is likely going to make it either as a utility infielder (third base should be no problem for him) or as a starting SS. Beresford should start the season next year at AAA and try to improve his slugging somewhat before replacing Eduardo Escobar or Pedro Florimon if his play merits it. 31. Tyler Jones, RHR, DOB: 9/5/89 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 52.1, 2.58, 66/20 (10.8/3.5) Jones improved on his 2012 numbers and could be a real force to be reckoned with out of the bullpen. He got hit a little in the FSL, but his stuff is very impressive. Should be a bi-level player again next year and be tapping at the Twins door in 2015 if all goes well. The next post will cover the 21-30 ranked prospects in the system.

Signing players, especially pitchers, two one-year deals involves the following considerations: 1. Looking at the potential of dealing with the exact same terrible situation this time a year from now (mitigated, potentially, by Meyer-Gibson-May). 2. Hoping that said player does very well and can be dealt or does well and wants to actually return (though wanting a multi-year deal). 3. If he sucks, then well, it's a one-year deal. I was very against the idea of signing one year guys, but I have come around. I am not sure how Hughes would take to Minnesota. He might really like it, for all we know. I know little other than his Christianity, but perhaps he just wants to get the hell out of a crazy media-infested environment. I get really cautious about Kazmir, by the way. I mean . . . it's been a disaster since what 2008 aside from a goodish 2013. I like him on principle since he strikes people out a lot. I am sick of watching this nonsense. I would be happy with any 1-3 year deal for Hughes and Kazmir.

It *should* mean that Chris Parmelee realizes he needs to learn left field to give himself a chance. Colabello can get nice spot starts here and there. If the Twins decide to leave Arcia in AAA for awhile, Parmelee can be in RF. Pinto and Herrmann can hold down C. Unless the Twins want to find a way to bring in Salty (they won't be able to do so). I would be fully prepared to roll out with most of the youth movement now, and that includes Pinto, Herrmann, Hicks, and Arcia. Maybe the Twins do what's wise and by August 1 Willingham and Doumit are gone. The position players possibly on the team: Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Buxton, CF Sano, 3B Arcia, DH Hicks, RF Rosario, LF Pinto, C Florimon, SS Plouffe Herrmann Escobar Parmelee or Colabello

Maybe if the Twins get one of the top three bids and then Terry Ryan shows up to a meeting speaking Japanese . . . .

It isn't clear why the Twins should sign another catcher unless it is to go big with McCann or Salty. How isn't AJ a waste of time given the Twins aren't going to be legitimate until 2015 anyway? By the way, I bet McCann goes to Red Sox or Rangers, and Salty goes to the Rangers or White Sox.

He was last good in 2009. He won't want to end up in Rochester so there is nothing to do this. Can't be, right? But . . . on a typical Shane note, if he DOES want to stay in Rochester . . . James Beresford, Danny Santana, and Eddie Rosario will have to make room, or something, for a washed up player. Typical.

Buxton played in essentially an AA all-star league just now and was OK. He needs months at AA so the A- grade is justified. Ibarra could push himself up into the top 50 (came close for me) but there are injury cases like Wimmers, Roberts, and Bard who stick around on such lists. Also no LOOGY is really ever going to come close to a top prospect even if he is more likely to be contributing to the Twins.

Moving Mauer to first is fine, especially if the other pieces in the chain reaction provide good value. If Eric "no future in the MLB" Fryer gets ample time catching, Ryan Doumit DHs, and Josh Willingham continues playing LF, that is NOT good value. At all. It is helpful that now Mauer basically only very rarely has to DH. That's true. And I imagine he will become a top to near-top defensive first baseman.

If that then-deemed "harmless" quote about Fryer ends up meaning that guy is even considered an option, I am going to go back to that thread and say "told you so!" Chris Herrmann will get better. Pinto can learn on the job. Mauer can be the emergency catcher. Signing some guy is pretty silly given it is unlikely he will be better than a Pinto/Herrmann combination.

I would roll with Deibinson Romero and Eduardo Escobar as backup infielders.

He had a 5.71 ERA and the worst of it was in San Diego! He has been *bad* for three years and only had one great season to begin with. A career 83 ERA+ is not a good sign. Maybe for much younger pitchers, but not here. No way.

Now I realize why Volquez was so sneaky--it's because he's bad. Fantastic in 2008. Declining ever since.

PCHR Report on Extrajudicial Killings - IHL In fairness to Obama, he is simply following the little brother's lead in extrajudicial killings.

Puzzling how his strikeout numbers are so pedestrian. And always have been. Strikeouts matter. So does durability.

I predict that none of those things happen.

Continuing my top 65 prospects. Here are 50-41: 50. Jason Wheeler, LHS, DOB: 10/27/90 2013 A+: 143.1, 3.70, 91/58 (6.2/3.0) Wheeler walked more and struck out fewer in fewer innings at Fort Myers than his 2012 effort in Beloit. He has logged 300 innings in the past two seasons with a 3.57 ERA. I have to imagine he is heading back to Fort Myers to improve his K/BB rate in 2014. 49. Dan Rohlfing, C/corner OF, RH, DOB: 2/12/89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 432, .267/.352/.341 (.693) (.650), 15-2-3, 48-96, 0-1 Rohlfing is following the Chris Herrmann route in demonstrating positional versatility while being a primary catcher. This likely is his one path to the majors. He is still young and showed a bit of promise in Rochester and should hopefully start 2014 there with Knudson. 48. Brett Lee, LHS, DOB: 9/20/90 2013 A-: 116. 2.95, 89/26 (7.7, 2.1) Lee doesn't strike out a good number as a starter and is likely destined to be a long reliever like Dean and Rogers. He had a solid 2013 and will likely start in the 2014 starting rotation for the Miracle. 47. Mason Meltokis, LHR, DOB: 6/28/91 2013 A-: 135, 3.16 ERA, 84/39 (7.9/3.0) Melotakis is fitting in as a starter and should improve upon his K rate in 2014 as expect his second year as a starter to be a bit of a breakthrough year. The second round pick in 2012 has a #3 starter ceiling. 46. Lester Oliveros, RHR, DOB: 5/28/88 AAA, but 2013 GCL: 6.1 IP, 8 strikeouts, 3 walks Oliveros is making his way back from injury but is still a promising reliever. He should be off to AAA to start 2014 with a chance to make it again with the Twins soon. 45. Luke Bard, RHR, DOB: 11/13/90 2013 GCL/ELZ/A+ (combined stats): 12.1, 3.65, 9/9 (7.4/7.4) Bard has been a disappointing injury case. Now, in 19.1 career innings, he has 16 strikeouts and 16 walks. He remains an interesting prospect but needs to remain healthy in 2014 or his stock will drop even more dramatically. 44. Ryan Eades, RHS, DOB: 12/15/91 2013 ELZ: 15.2, 4.60, 13/12 Eades was selected in the second round of the 2013 draft and I was immediately disappointed. His 2014 is going to be very important in terms of his future on this list, as I do not see strong potential in developing into a serviceable MLB pitcher at the moment. The high pick is enough to keep him here, however. 43. Corey Williams, LHR, DOB: 7/4/902013 A+/AA (A+ stats): 45.1, 5.16, 43/23 (9.3/4.7) Williams has stagnated on this list due to a subpar performance in 2013, though I am confident that he can make headway, even by being promoted to the AA bullpen at the beginning of 2014. The lefty had big trouble with the long ball this year, and when a pitcher also walks to many, it is a recipe for disaster. 2014 is an important year for Williams. 42. Alex Wimmers, RHS, DOB: 11/1/88 (AA), but 2013 GCL stats: 15, 7.20, 18/15 (9.8/4.2) Any stats don't matter at all as long as Wimmers has a 2014 with at least several dozen innings pitched with effectiveness. Seven dozen innings would be more than his current career innings total. Any more significant setbacks and Wimmers' career is in total jeopardy. Hopefully he rises on this list by midseason 2014. 41. Matt Hauser, RHR, DOB: 3/30/88 2013 A+/AA (AA stats): 39.0, 6.00, 35/12 (8.4/3.8) Hauser had a solid start to his AA campaign but then had several terrible outings. I was looking for him to emerge as the next setup type for the Twins, but it would appear that this project is on hold for another year.

Not every Arab and/or every Muslim in the region wants Israel wiped out. Just be clear on that.

Anyway, I would like to know what *good* has come about because of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? To me it has been a success for only that segment of the population that benefits from unending war (the Pentagon, relevant defense industries, and ideologues . . . oh and terrorist leaders).

Speaking of hyperbole!

Am I allowed around here to use such adjectives about the President? Of course he has a barbaric foreign policy. Good lord. Drone strikes on American citizens, for crying out loud. Anyway, the Israeli government is not remotely interested in peace. There is no possible justification for such a claim. The Israeli people, yes, but not that government.

Neither the Anderson nor the Davis trade would fly. Other than that, this is interesting (though I am really not a fan of Nolasco).

That all said, in my total delusional world it would be fun for the Twins to sign two mid-tier guys like Hughes, Kazmir, Haren, etc. and then three minor deal guys just to say to all the current pitchers: "we just added five guys, you tell us what that means about you."

If the prices really are going to be driven up so far, it is wise for the Twins to go after Hughes and Kazmir, then drop down to Capuano. I am not sure what the real difference is going to end up being, in terms of performance, between Ricky Nolasco and Chris Capuano. Career ERA+ 94 for Nolasco and 97 for Capuano. Both pitchers seem like they end up being Correia in terms of value. Capuano is definitely one of those fairly few guys who would sign a one-year deal with a second option (team). Hughes is not doing that. Hughes gets a one-year deal, a strong two-year deal, or a three-year deal that probably pays a bit less. Kazmir is somewhat similar, but clearly not with the one-year deal.