I’m definitely on board with it needing to be a legit case of dead arm/fatigue. I wasn’t explicit in saying that.
My point was more that his recent inconsistency seems consistent with guys running into a fatigue factor when coming back from TJS.
He was able to average nearly 92 pitches over his first nine starts but has only gotten above 88 in one of his last five. Obviously, there’s more than fatigue going on in determining how many pitches a guy throws. There’s effectiveness, which he hasn’t had lately.
Your velo stats don’t suggest fatigue, which is very helpful. At the same time, my sense is that TJS fatigue is as much about not being able to MAINTAIN sharpness and velocity as it is about not being able to find them at all. It seems like sometimes he has one and sometimes the other. Sometimes he’s had both and sometimes he has neither. And sometimes those different permutations happen within the same game. And can change quickly.
Sorry — didn’t mean to turn this into an analysis of why Paddack has struggled. I’m also one who often says, “These folks are way closer to the scene than those of us on TD,” so I don’t like it when people make speculative statements. I wasn’t trying to do that.
All that to say, I’m with you on not wanting them to manufacture an injury. However, as an endurance coach by trade (track and field/cross country), I also admit I come from a bias toward trying to nip overuse injuries in the bud, while also trying to be strategic in when to use extra rest, which is where the ASB scenario is coming from. I see it as a conversation where you’re saying to the athlete, “Look, from what you’re feeling and what we’re seeing in our measurements, it seems clear that you aren’t going to be able to make every start from here to the end of the year. In fact, your recovery would likely benefit from missing more than just a single start. How can we build in an extended rest so that it best benefits both you and the team?”
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On the topic of phantom IL stints, I recently read “The Tao of the Backup Catcher,” by Tim Johnson with Erik Kratz. ! highly recommend it,
In it, Kratz tells of being told late in his career to invent an injury to create an IL stint. I’ve had opportunity to get to know him on a personal level, so I’m pretty confident it wasn’t embellishment for the purpose of selling books. (And besides, it’s not a book based on sensationalism anyway.)
He doesn’t name names, but it can be sleuthed out which team it happened with. He talks about the difficult spot he was in. He’s a man of integrity and it’s the intangibles that kept him in the game until almost 40 and now he’s being asked to go against those, knowing that if he doesn’t, a DFA could be the end of his career.