IndianaTwin

Well, that pretty much sucked. Probably not many of us were thinking the Twins could actually sweep the Yankees, and most of us probably weren’t even expecting two wins. But one, winning one would have been nice. Unfortunately, the Twins’ 0-3 record against the Yankees makes it virtually impossible for the Twins to host the Wild Card Game. With 10 games to go and holding the tiebreaker advantage, the Yankees magic number is 4 in terms of clinching home field or better (the division) for the single-game play-in game to the American League Divisional Series. Add in the lead over the Angels, and the Yankees magic number is 2 against the Angels to clinch a playoff spot. Fortunately, the Angels didn’t fare any better than the Twins, losing both its games to Cleveland, with one remaining today. Playing one less game let the Angels gain a half-game, but they missed out on an opportunity to close the gap. Texas, however, did take advantage of its opportunity, winning the first two over Seattle and closing to 2.5 games. Splits by the Royals and Rayls gained them 1.5 games, but they were starting from farther back. All that action did lower the Twins playoff chances a bit, according to fivethirtyeight.com, which now puts the likelihood at 64 percent, down from 71 percent after Sunday’s action. The Angels are down a tick to 22 percent, while the Rangers increased their odds the most, jumping from 2 percent to a still-unlikely 9 percent. The Royals are at 2 percent, Seattle 1, and Toronto and Baltimore less than 1. And in the other race that we’re watching, the Tigers magic number is 10 to assure that the White Sox end up with the worst record in the league. That’s important too, so I’ll be monitoring this. Let’s take a look at where the standings shape up now compared to when the Twins entered the House that Ruth Built, that Jeter Rebuilt, and where Judge now presides as property manager for. Before: NYY +4.0 Min --- LAA -2.0 Sea -4.5 KC -5.0 Tex -5.0 Bal -5.5 TB -5.5 After: NYY +7.0 Min --- LAA -1.5 Tex -2.5 KC -3.5 Sea -4.0 TB -4.0 Bal -5.5 When you lose three straight, it’s impossible to gain on teams that play two or three games. So, we lost 3 games to the Yankees, 2.5 to the Rangers, 1.5 to the Royals and Rays, and .5 to the Angels and Mariners. The only team we didn’t lose anything to is Baltimore, which also got swept. Next up: Cle @ LAA (1 in series conclusion) Tex @ Sea (1 in series conclusion) KC @ Tor (1 in series conclusion) Min @ Det (4) TB @ Bal (4) NYY @ Tor KC @ CWS Hou @ LAA Tex @ Oak Cle @ Sea Snapshot Here’s the snapshot view of the teams in contention, with data from baseball-reference.com and fivethirtyeight.com. Scroll to the end if you need explanatory notes. YANKEES Record: 82-67.Games ahead/back: +4.0Luck: -9538.com projection: 91-71 (9-4 the rest of the way)538.com playoff likelihood: >99%Remaining schedule: @ Tor (3), vs. KC (1), vs. TB (3), vs. Tor (3).Average record for remaining games: 72-80.Summary: Seven games up on the Twins with 10 to go, the race for the first Wild Card is essentially over. However, they have closed to within 3 of the BoSox. The two don’t play each other, so the Yankees will need some help if they hope to catch Boston. The Yankees do have an easy schedule, however, with six remaining games against Toronto, while Boston ends the season with a four-game series against Houston.TWINS Record: 78-74.Games ahead/back: ---Luck: 2.538.com projection: 83-79 (5-5).538.com playoff likelihood: 64%Remaining schedule: @ Det (4), vs. Cle (3), vs. Det (3)Average record for remaining games: 76-76.Summary: The Twins have proven a resilient bunch, and resiliency will be the key following a stretch where they have now lost 5 of the last 6 heading into a 4-game series with the Tigers, a team that is struggling in its own right with just 2 wins in the last 10. Given that the Angels head to division-leading Houston after today, this is the Twins opportunity to break the race open over the Angels heading into the final week.LA ANGELS Record: 76-75.Games ahead/back: -1.5Luck: 1538.com projection: 82-80 (6-5)538.com playoff likelihood: 22%Remaining schedule: Cle (1), @ Hou (3), @ CWS (4), vs. Sea (3).Average record for remaining games: 76-75.Summary: After today’s game Cleveland, the Angels head to Houston for another three-game set against a division leader. This is a huge series on a couple of fronts. Sure, there’s the reality that with the Twins facing Detroit, the Angels may need to win some games to stay afloat. But if the Twins don’t get some separation, they will put us in the very difficult ethical position of considering that we might need to root for the White Sox next week. As my mom used to say, however, let’s cross that bridge when we get to it.RANGERS Record: 75-76.Games ahead/back: -2.5.Luck: -3538.com projection: 81-81 (6-5)538.com playoff likelihood: 9%Remaining schedule: @ Sea (1), @ Oak (3), Hou (3), Oak (4).Average record for remaining games: 74-76.Summary: I don’t exactly like it, but finally I can point to a team besides the Yankees that has done what it needs to do, winning the first two in their series against Seattle and cutting their deficit in half. Pythagoras is dead, but if he was alive he wouldn’t be surprised that the Rangers are playing themselves back in (if he cared, that is. He’s Greek, after all, and more likely concerned about the Euroleague.), since they are the one team in the WCII hunt that has underperformed so far. Aside from a series with Houston, they have a favorable remaining schedule, with seven games against the cellar-dwelling A’s.ROYALS Record: 74-77.Games ahead/back: -3.5.Luck: 5538.com projection: 79-83 (5-6)538.com playoff likelihood: 2%Remaining schedule: @ Tor (1), @ CWS (3), @ NYY (1), Det (3), Ariz (3).Average record for remaining games: 71-81.Summary: A win against Toronto keeps them on the edge of the race with six games remaining against Chicago and Detroit, but their run differential remains horrible and they have three teams to climb. They might get the bad teams, but they have a make-up road game with New York injected into their schedule and end the season against division leading Arizona.MARINERS Record: 74-78Games ahead/back: -4.0Luck: 0538.com projection: 79-83 (5-5)538.com playoff likelihood: 2%Remaining schedule: Tex (1), Cle (3), @ Oak (3), @ LAA (3).Average record for remaining games: 80-72.Summary: Being 4 games back with 10 to play is tough, particularly given that there are three other teams between you and the team you’re striving to reach. However, the Mariners do play 4 of their remaining 10 against the teams above them, so winning out would largely take care of them. However, there is no margin for error. Today’s game with Texas is essentially a must-win, as is sweeping the Angels at season’s end. In between lurks Cleveland, which has followed up its long winning streak by winning another four straight.RAYS Record: 74-78Games ahead/back: -4.Luck: 0538.com projection: 79-83 (5-5)538.com playoff likelihood: <1%Remaining schedule: @ Bal (4), @ NYY (3), Bal (3).Average record for remaining games: 77-76.Summary: Being behind by only 4 with 10 to go would seem to have them on the very edge of the race, but they also have to pass several teams, some of whom are playing each other. That means the teams ahead of them can’t all get swept. So, for all in tents and porpoises (and for those sleeping in beds and going on whale watches), the Jays are out of it.ORIOLES Record: 73-80.Games ahead/back: -5.5Luck: 5538.com projection: 77-85 (4-5)538.com playoff likelihood: <1%Remaining schedule: TB (4), @ Pit (2), @ TB (3).Average record for remaining games: 73-79.Summary: Not only have they fallen off the back end of this list, they are only 1.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays, a team I haven’t even been writing about. However, my best friend is an Orioles fan, so out of courtesy to him, I’m acknowledging that they still exist in the race. Their elimination number is only 5 however, and that doesn’t take into account games teams ahead of them have against each other.Explanatory notes: Team name: Duh. Record: Actual won-loss record.Games ahead/back: (In the second Wild Card chase).Luck: (this compares their Pythagorean record to their actual record, giving a suggestion of whether they are over- or under-performing. A team with a positive number (like the Twins have been for most of the year) has won more games than their runs scored/allowed would suggest).538.com projection: The final projected record based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining season, using starting pitching data, days off, and travel distances. See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-mlb-predictions/. 538.com playoff likelihood: Likelihood of making the playoffs based on those simulations.Remaining schedule: Duh, II.Average record for remaining games: A quantifiable measure of their remaining strength of schedule, this is the average current record for their remaining opponents.Summary: My comments.

Did you mean Ball 2? Or Ball 3?

Just cut and pasted. I've had a few times when there have been quirks when trying to attach a video or photo and I haven't been able to figure it out. Then the next time it works.

When I checked this out, Youtube had this one along the side as a related video: I went ahead and bookmarked it for any time I need to bring a smile to my face.

Something old… the Twins are still two games up on the Angels and a few games behind the Yankees. Something new… the remaining five teams with anything but mathematical chances to make the playoffs have almost played themselves down to only mathematical chances. It was a 4-2 week for the Twins. On one hand, that’s good, but on the other, it can feel a little disappointing after starting 3-0 and having the opportunity to really open things up with another two or three wins. Instead, the Twins only won one of three the rest of the way and had the Angels creep within a game heading into Sunday. On the third hand (nah, let’s move to the feet), the generally .500 teams hovering around the second wild spot have been playing generally .500 ball or worse, so when the Twins go 4-2, they start to separate. The Twins have gone 6-4 over the last 10, for example, but only one of the teams following them (the Mariners) have won even five in that time. The other five behind the Twins have combined to go 16-34 in that time. But while there are only 13 games left, things aren’t over with those teams. Even .500 teams can win three in a row, and the Twins have three against the tough Yankees. A Yankees sweep combined with a Mariners/Royals/Rangers/Orioles/Rays sweep would lift that team right back into the race. And on the remaining foot, as the Twins head to New York, their closest rival, the Angels, get the privilege of hosting Cleveland. It’s difficult to think of the Twins sweeping the Yankees, but it seems even more difficult to think of the Angels getting a sweep. A sweep over the Yankees, however, is probably what it will take for the Twins to close the gap and have even a shot at hosting the Wild Card game. Winning only two of three only closes the gap to 3 games with 10 to play. Because the Yankees have a six-game lead on the Angels, fivethirtyeight.com puts the Yankees odds of reaching the playoffs at greater than 99 percent. The site does like the Twins situation, however, putting the odds at 71 percent compared to the Angels 23 percent. None of the remaining five have greater than a 2 percent chance, with the Rays and Orioles at less than 1 percent. Let’s take a look at where the standings shape up now compared to when the Blue Jays arrived. Before: NYY +3 Min --- LAA -2.0 Sea -3.5 KC -4.0 Tex -4.0 Bal -4.5 TB -5.0 After: NYY +4.0 Min --- LAA -2.0 Sea -4.5 KC -5.0 Tex -5.0 Bal -5.5 TB -5.5 So, we lost a game to the Yankees and stayed even with the Angels. However, we gained a game on virtually everyone else, the exception being the half game on the Rays, who are at the bottom of the list. Next up: Min @ NYY Bos @ Bal KC @ Tor ChC @ TB (2) Cle @ LAA Tex @ Sea Snapshot Here’s the snapshot view of the teams in contention, with data from baseball-reference.com and fivethirtyeight.com. Scroll to the end if you need explanatory notes. YANKEES Record: 82-67.Games ahead/back: +4.0Luck: -9538.com projection: 90-72 (8-5 the rest of the way)538.com playoff likelihood: >99%Games against good: None.Games against middle: Home 7 (Min 3, TB 3, KC 1).Games against bad: Home 3 (Tor 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).Average record for remaining games: 73-77.Summary: They continue to hang around the edge of the divisional race, closing to within three of Boston, giving them a 20 percent chance to catch the BoSox. To protect home field advantage for the Wild Card game, they probably just need to win at least one against the Twins. The Twins are the best team the Yankees still face, so the schedule is beneficial. In addition, 10 of their last 13 games are at home.TWINS Record: 78-71.Games ahead/back: ---Luck: 3.538.com projection: 84-78 (6-7).538.com playoff likelihood: 71%Games against good: Road 3 (Cle 3).Games against middle: Road 3 (NYY 3).Games against bad: Home 3 (Det 3), Road 4 (Det 4).Average record for remaining games: 78-71.Summary: Sweeping the Yankees is needed to have a chance for an Oct. 3 home game. With the series with the Padres and Toronto out of the way, the Twins have gone from having one of the easiest remaining schedules to one of the toughest. Playing at least .500 ball is key, but so is having the Angels do no better than that as well.LA ANGELS Record: 76-73.Games ahead/back: -2Luck: 1538.com projection: 83-79 (7-6)538.com playoff likelihood: 23%Games against good: Home 3 (Cle 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 3 (Sea 3).Games against bad: Road 4 (CWS 4).Average record for remaining games: 78-71.Summary: Opportunity is in front of the Angels if they can play Cleveland better than the Twins do. But if the Twins can go at least 7-6 the rest of the way, it would mean the Angels needing to go at least 9-4, which seems rough against a schedule that includes both Cleveland and the Astros.MARINERS Record: 74-76Games ahead/back: -4.5Luck: 2538.com projection: 80-82 (6-6)538.com playoff likelihood: 2%Games against good: Home 3 (Cle 3).Games against middle: Home 3 (Tex 3), Road 3 (LAA 3).Games against bad: Road 3 (Oak 3).Average record for remaining games: 77-72.Summary: When you’re 4.5 back with 14 to play, the formula is pretty simple. Win. Sweeps are needed. Even if the Twins lose all three in New York, the Mariners winning only 2 of 3 still leaves them 2.5 out.RANGERS Record: 73-76.Games ahead/back: -5.0.Luck: -3538.com projection: 80-82 (7-6)538.com playoff likelihood: 2%Games against good: Home 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Road 3 (Sea 3).Games against bad: Home 4 (Oak 4), Road 3 (Oak 3).Average record for remaining games: 74-76.Summary: See Mariners comment, only make it a half-game worse.ROYALS Record: 73-76.Games ahead/back: -5.0.Luck: 6538.com projection: 79-83 (6-7)538.com playoff likelihood: 1%Games against good: Home 3 (Ariz 3).Games against middle: Road 1 (NYY 1).Games against bad: Home 6 (CWS 3, Det 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).Average record for remaining games: 71-79.Summary: See Rangers. And Pythagoras still doesn’t like them. They do have 9 remaining games against bad teams, however, so going on a winning streak is theoretically more possible. Pythagoras considers them a bad team, however, suggesting they should be about 15 games under .500.ORIOLES Record: 73-77.Games ahead/back: -5.5Luck: 4538.com projection: 79-83 (6-7)538.com playoff likelihood: <1%Games against good: Home 3 (Bos 3).Games against middle: Home 4 (TB 4), Road 3 (TB 3).Games against bad: Road 2 (Pit 2).Average record for remaining games: 75-75.Summary: They are 5.5 back, including six in the loss column, with a schedule that doesn’t help them. Short of running the board or close to it, they are done.RAYS Record: 73-77Games ahead/back: -5.5Luck: 0538.com projection: 79-83 (6-6)538.com playoff likelihood: <1%Games against good: Home 2 (Cubs 2).Games against middle: Home 3 (Bal 3), Road 7 (Bal 4, NYY 3).Games against bad: 0.Average record for remaining games: 77-73.Summary: See Orioles.Explanatory notes: Team name: Duh.Record: Actual won-loss record.Games ahead/back: (In the second Wild Card chase).Luck: (this compares their Pythagorean record to their actual record, giving a suggestion of whether they are over- or under-performing. A team with a positive number (like the Twins have been for most of the year) has won more games than their runs scored/allowed would suggest).538.com projection: The final projected record based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining season, using starting pitching data, days off, and travel distances. See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-mlb-predictions/. 538.com playoff likelihood: Likelihood of making the playoffs based on those simulations.Games remaining against “good” teams: I’ve noted how many games remaining the team has against the three “good” teams in the league, which happen to be the three division leaders – Houston, Cleveland, and Boston. Because Boston is leading the division and is well ahead of the Yankees, and because the Yankees are in the Wild-Card chase, I drew the line between Boston and Yankees as the marker between “good” and “middle.”Games against “middle” teams: Games remaining against the teams that are in the middle segment of the league (Yankees, Twins, Angels, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City).Games against the “bad” teams: Games against the teams that have struggled (Toronto, Detroit, Oakland, White Sox).(Note: There are a few remaining interleague games which are added into the groupings.)Average record for remaining games: A quantifiable measure of their remaining strength of schedule, this is the average current record for their remaining opponents.Summary: My comments.

Is there any big news in the game intro? I didn't feel like reading it, so I just watched football instead.

So what the you're saying with the last sentence is that we don't yet have the technology for the computer to get them all?

I think that Baker did let Lackey vent after the initial pitch. Lackey's reaction to that call would have gotten himself ejected on many other occasions. Maddon even apparently came out on to the field to talk to Baker, which is often an automatic ejection, and he didn't get run either. To me that's an umpire letting a player vent and moving on. Lackey didn't get ejected until he reacted to the umpire WHILE THE BALL WAS STILL IN PLAY after the following pitch. Baker blew the call, but I think he handled the follow-up as well as possible. Letting a player vent doesn't give a free pass for the rest of the game. (And sorry, but I think Contreras deserves a fine and possible suspension for throwing the mask that bounced and hit Baker. I don't care that the mask "took a bad bounce" and that there was no intent. If he knew better than to throw it at Baker, he has to know to consciously throw it in another direction, not just straight down.)

Exactly. If you expanded the number of "close" plays to include all those where 1) the baserunner or fielder or on-field coach looks to the dugout and 2) the video person says, "Nope, not worth challenging," the percentage of overturns would be much lower. And the ump had to make the call instantaneously.

In an effort to get a two- or three-run lead, I would have liked bunting with a real bunter instead of Vargas. Maybe it was during the Game Thread, but I heard people point to Garver, Giminez, and even Kepler as options to take over on defense for Vargas, but I didn't hear anyone point out what seemed like the best option to me: Burn the DH spot, and bring in Mauer for defense. It's a long bench and there aren't other spots that are going to need pinch hitters, so stick the pitcher in the 6 hole and pinch hit if we get around to that spot again. If we run out of pinch hitters, we've got bigger issues than a pitcher needing to hit!

A couple weeks ago, I said I thought a good approach for 2018 would be to get the best SP they can get on the free agent market, considering a second if the contract was right. That was at a time when Gibson looked like a non-tender and would have given a rotation of FA, Santana, Berrios, Mejia, and either the second FA or someone from the barrage of prospects, many of whom will be needed later in the year because of attrition. That also involves giving up no talent. Based on how things have gone recently, I'd be fine with thinking of Gibson as that second free agent, perhaps on a two-year plus option year deal. (That would be the arb years guaranteed and first year of FA in the option year, right?) That is contingent on smarter people in the organization than me being able to have a feel of whether August/September Gibson has truly turned the corner vs. SSS. And I use the word "feel" intentionally. I think one of the places where analytics breaks down is in not being able to determine when a player has turned the corner developmentally vs. "never gonna make it." That's the crux of a "DFA Eddie Rosario" conversation, for example, and may be where we are with Gibson. I'm also fine with waiting another year to have that conversation, recognizing that it might cost more in the long run.

Astros up 2-0 on the Angels early. And some of you thought Nolasco would never help the Twins. See?

For those not following along, Cleveland just was down to its final strike and tied the game against the Royals. Seriously, are they ever going to lose again?

Best is the Twins win 17 straight. I've heard of teams doing that.

Bonnie? Have you been talking to my wife too? No wonder she's fed up with all my talk about baseball. Apparently we've been telling her the same things, however, because I agree with your post.

First things first – the White Sox have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Further, the Twins have clinched a better record than the Sox. This is important news, because the first goal in any season is to defeat the White Sox. Then and only then can other playoff implications be considered. But I digress. It was just a two-game series against San Diego, but things look significantly different in the Wild Card chase than they did Sunday evening. The Twins won a pair, and every team they are competing with lost at least one over the last three days, with several of them losing twice. As a result the Twins have jumped to a 63 percent likelihood of reaching the playoffs in fivethirtyeight.com’s calculations. On the other side, the Rays, Royals, and Orioles have fallen off the map to 2 percent or less and the Mariners and Rangers check in at 6 percent. The latter is not out of the realm of possibility – it’s basically like getting four straight heads in coin flips. The Angels are hanging on at 23 percent and remain the Twins’ biggest threat. It’s important to remember that those percentages are pretty fluid and can change pretty quickly. After all the other games were done last night, for example, the Angels win jumped them from 16 to 23 percent, dropping the Twins from 67 to 63 percent, for example. Similarly, if the Twins would drop the first two games of the Toronto series and the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers would each win their next two, those numbers would change even more dramatically. Oh wait, those three can’t all win their next two games – they are playing each other. That’s a distinct advantage the Twins have. Teams can’t gain on the Twins just by winning. They need help from other teams beating the Twins. It’s very likely that the Twins will remain in a tight race with someone for the last spot, but it becomes increasingly likely that it won’t be multiple teams they are fighting with. (I gotta say, however, that must be an awfully big hamster running the wheel that powers the machine running 100,000 scenarios in a matter of moments. But I digress.) But the underlying point still stands. These standings and projections could still change pretty quickly if the Twins fill their shorts with skid marks. Let’s take a look at where the standings shape up now compared to when we arrived home to take on the Fathers. Before: NYY +3.5 Min --- LAA -1.0 KC -2.5 Tex -2.5 Sea -3.0 Bal -3.0 TB -3.5 After: NYY +3 Min --- LAA -2.0 Sea -3.5 KC -4.0 Tex -4.0 Bal -4.5 TB -5.0 So, we picked up a half game on the Yankees and the Mariners, a game on the Angels, 1.5 games on the Rangers, Orioles, Royals and Rays. And don’t look now, but the Twins are closer to the Yankees than they are to all the others except the Angels. With three games remaining against the Bombers. Next up: Hou @ LAA today in conclusion of series Sea @ Tex today in conclusion of series Tor @ Min (4) Bal @ NYY (4) Bos @ TB (3) KC @ Cle (4) Sea @ Hou (3) Tex @ LAA (3) Snapshot Here’s the snapshot view of the teams in contention, with data from baseball-reference.com and fivethirtyeight.com. Scroll to the end if you need explanatory notes. YANKEES Record: 79-66.Games ahead/back: +3.0Luck: -9538.com projection: 89-73 (10-7 the rest of the way)538.com playoff likelihood: 99%Games against good: None.Games against middle: Home 11 (Min 3, Bal 4, TB 3, KC 1).Games against bad: Home 3 (Tor 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).Average record for remaining games: 69-72.Summary: They are just on the edge of the divisional race, but they don’t play the team they are chasing (Boston). They are 3 games ahead of the Twins in the race for the first Wild Card and could lose home-field advantage for that game if they would get swept by the Twins next week, but they hold a 5-game lead over the Angels. They also have a significantly easier schedule than the Angels, so the Yankees have reached the point of having a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. They have 14 of their remaining 17 at home, including all 11 against teams that have any hope of the playoffs. Based on all that, it will still be tough for the Twins to catch them unless the Twins sweep them next week.TWINS Record: 76-69.Games ahead/back: ---Luck: 3.538.com projection: 85-77 (9-8).538.com playoff likelihood: 63%Games against good: Road 3 (Cle 3).Games against middle: Road 3 (NYY 3).Games against bad: Home 7 (Tor 4, Det 3), Road 4 (Det 4).Average record for remaining games: 67-72.Summary: As summarized above, things keep heading in the Twins favor. They still have the easiest remaining schedule, playing teams that average five games below .500. That includes 11 games against bad teams, with seven of those at home. Going 6-5 in those games and winning at least one each against and Cleveland and New York would make them tough to beat, so a key is to avoid losing more than two in a row.LA ANGELS Record: 74-71.Games ahead/back: -2Luck: 1538.com projection: 83-79538.com playoff likelihood: 23%Games against good: Home 4 (Cle 3, Hou today), Road 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 6 (Sea 3, Tex 3).Games against bad: Road 4 (CWS 4).Average record for remaining games: 73-66.Summary: They are now the only team closer than 3.5 games, so this is where the biggest threat by far comes from. Getting bopped today by Houston would be nice, as would Texas realizing that they need a sweep of the Angels this weekend to stay in the race. Then, the Angels turn around and host the Indians, who we hope will still be on their winning streak. Games like that are what give the Angels nearly the toughest remaining schedule. MARINERS Record: 73-73Games ahead/back: -3.5Luck: 2538.com projection: 81-81 (8-8)538.com playoff likelihood: 5%Games against good: Home 3 (Cle 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 3 (Tex 3), Road 4 (LAA 3, Tex today).Games against bad: Road 3 (Oak 3).Average record for remaining games: 73-66.Summary: They were the only team behind the Twins to win 2 of 3, but they still lost a half-game to Eddie and Friends. Now they have to travel to Houston to play the division leaders. With the toughest remaining schedule, it will be hard for them to go on the long winning streak they need.ROYALS Record: 72-73.Games ahead/back: -4.0.Luck: 7538.com projection: 80-82 (8-9)538.com playoff likelihood: 2%Games against good: Home 3 (Ariz 3), Road 4 (Cle 4).Games against middle: Road 1 (NYY 1).Games against bad: Home 6 (CWS 3, Det 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).Average record for remaining games: 68-72.Summary: Pythagoras doesn’t like their run differential, but outplaying their PWP is what keeps the Royals and their 2 percent likelihood on the edge of the race. The Royals may saved their shot by getting the last two games against the Twins, but they gave it back by losing two of three since then. (Notice how I didn’t say that the White Sox beat anyone – I just said that the Royals lost two of three to someone.) And now it’s, “Hello, Cleveland. We brought the barbecue sauce -- enjoy feasting on us. Four times.” Not only do they need to win at least two of those, they probably need to return to the table and feast on the 9 remaining games they have with bad teams. That’s more than anyone besides the Twins. RANGERS Record: 72-73.Games ahead/back: -4.0.Luck: -3538.com projection: 81-81 (9-8)538.com playoff likelihood: 6%Games against good: Home 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 1 (Sea today), Road 6 (LAA 3, Sea 3).Games against bad: Home 4 (Oak 4), Road 3 (Oak 3).Average record for remaining games: 69-70.Summary: The Rangers are another team that lost the opportunity to stay in the race by losing two of three (so far, with a game remaining in the Seattle series.). They do have seven of their remaining games with Oakland, so the possibility of a winning streak exists. On the other hand, they also have three with the Astros and a three-game series with two other teams fighting for their playoff hopes.ORIOLES Record: 72-74.Games ahead/back: -4.5Luck: 3538.com projection: 80-82 (8-8)538.com playoff likelihood: 2%Games against good: Home 3 (Bos 3).Games against middle: Home 4 (TB 4), Road 7 (NYY 4, TB 3).Games against bad: Road 2 (Pit 2).Average record for remaining games: 72-68.Summary: Another loser of two of three. Either way this weekend they’ll help the Twins. They will either win a couple games against the Yankees to give the Twins a chance to close the gap ahead of them or lose a couple and further eliminate themselves. Thanks to having played Cleveland last weekend, they’ve lost 5 of their last 6.RAYS Record: 72-75Games ahead/back: -5.0Luck: 1538.com projection: 79-83 (7-8)538.com playoff likelihood: <1%Games against good: Home 5 (Bos 3, Cubs 2).Games against middle: Home 3 (Bal 3), Road 7 (Bal 4, NYY 3).Games against bad: 0.Average record for remaining games: 75-65.Summary: Uh, stick a fork in them. Five games remaining against division leaders, seven more games on the road, and six teams to pass. Thus the “less than” sign in their playoff likelihood score.EXPLANATORY NOTES: Team name: Duh.Record: Actual won-loss record.Games ahead/back: (In the second Wild Card chase).Luck: (this compares their Pythagorean record to their actual record, giving a suggestion of whether they are over- or under-performing. A team with a positive number (like the Twins have been for most of the year) has won more games than their runs scored/allowed would suggest).538.com projection: The final projected record based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining season, using starting pitching data, days off, and travel distances. See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-mlb-predictions/.538.com playoff likelihood: Likelihood of making the playoffs based on those simulations.Games remaining against “good” teams: I’ve noted how many games remaining the team has against the three “good” teams in the league, which happen to be the three division leaders – Houston, Cleveland, and Boston. Because Boston is leading the division and is well ahead of the Yankees, and because the Yankees are in the Wild-Card chase, I drew the line between Boston and Yankees as the marker between “good” and “middle.”Games against “middle” teams: Games remaining against the teams that are in the middle segment of the league (Yankees, Twins, Angels, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City).Games against the “bad” teams: Games against the teams that have struggled (Toronto, Detroit, Oakland, White Sox).(Note: There are a few remaining interleague games which are added into the groupings.)Average record for remaining games: A quantifiable measure of their remaining strength of schedule, this is the average current record for their remaining opponents.Summary: My comments.

Normal rules call for needing a three-game sweep to take donuts to the office, but considering the circumstances, I'll bend the rules.

Pablo Sanchez Dante Robinson

Vic Albury Tom Burgmeier Ray Corbin Joe Decker I liked the A-B-C-D effect. By the way, they were four of just 13 pitchers who appeared for the Twins back in 1975.

Well, in Strat-O-Matic, Wood is now tired.

I wish Posada and Williams WOULD walk through the door for them. The former is 46 and Bernie turns 49 tomorrow. I'd rather face either of those than Sanchez and Judge.

I was doing the same kind of thing to see if the White Sox are officially eliminated, even though the "elimination number" is listed at 3. They do remain mathematically alive for a tie if they can win all 20 games and get to 76-86, but I'm not sure if they can do it if they don't win out. That is, I don't think they can get everyone to 87 losses. My process was to... Give the Sox 20 more wins to end up 76-86. Then, go through the remaining Boston, Houston, Cleveland, and New York games and let them win out. Give wins to the NL team in any remaining interleague games. By this time, some of the AL teams will have reached 87 losses, so I let them win the rest of their games. Repeat as long as possible. Then have the Twins lose out. Eventually you'll get to just a few series remaining. Baltimore and Toronto need to go 4-3 in either direction. That leaves the three-way of Seattle, LAA, and Texas, and there was a way to have them each up with 76-86 as well and create a four-way tie with the Sox for the second wild card. There may be ways to turn some of the other games and have the tie be more than four teams, but I don't think it can fewer than four. The Indians won and the Yankees and White Sox are each winning, which is part of the formula. The Orioles-Jays and Mariners-Rangers can go either way and work themselves out later. With a full slate of action tomorrow night, it could be very easy to have them eliminated, even if they win again and the Twins lose, which would have ESPN and others still listing the elimination number at 3.

I've been including them, but in my mind I'm generally where you are. In reality, I think the Yankees are a better team than the Twins and any of the teams that are chasing them, plus they are playing 17 of their last 20 in New York thanks to already having 14 home games and having the three Tampa Bay games moved to Citi Field. Because of how tough they will be to catch, I won't even be too disappointed if they sweep the Rays, for example, since it will effectively wipe them out. If the Rays sweep, they become a bigger problem for the Twins.

Excellent point.

My bad -- I've got too many lines on my cheat sheets. That's a comment that should have been made about the Royals, whose only game remaining with the teams they are competing against being the makeup game with the Yankees.