IndianaTwin

By the way, if people find this interesting/helpful, I'm game for updating it after each series.

Perspective. That’s my thought as we consider having lost the last two games in Kansas City. Winning those two would have helped us open up some distance on the field and effectively eliminate the Royals. But we didn’t. However, the reality is that we still had what I would consider a net gain in the race for the second Wild Card over the last few days. Let’s take a look at where the standings shape up now compared to when we arrived in the city of barbecue on Thursday. Before: Yankees +1.5 Twins ---- Angels -0.5 Orioles -1.0 Texas -2.0 Royals -2.5 Rays -3.0 Mariners -3.5 After: Yankees +3.5 Twins --- Angels -1.0 Royals -2.5 Rangers -2.5 Mariners -3.0 Orioles -3.0 Rays -3.5 So, while we lost two games to the Yankees, the reality is that we gained four days and a half game on the closest follower – the Angels. And where there were three teams within two games of the Twins, now there is just one. Overall, they lost two on the Yankees and a half-game on the Rangers and Mariners, but they stayed even with the Royals and picked up a half-game on the Angels and Rays and two games on the Orioles. The herd could get thinned in this next several days, based on the results of these series: Padres at TwinsWhite Sox at RoyalsOrioles at Blue JaysYankees at RaysMariners at RangersAstros at Angels. Here’s the team-by-team snapshot view of the teams in contention, with data from baseball-reference.com and fivethirtyeight.com. Scroll to the end if you need explanatory notes. YANKEES Record: 77-65.Games ahead/back: +3.5Luck: -9538.com projection: 89-73538.com playoff likelihood: 95%Games against good: None.Games against middle: Home 11 (Min 3, Bal 4, TB 3, KC 1), Road 3 (TB 3).Games against bad: Home 3 (Tor 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).Average record for remaining games: 69-72.Summary: Their Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) has them 9 games better than their actual record. They are the only team in the mix with no games remaining against a good team. They also have 12 of their remaining 20 games at home, including 11 of 14 of the games against teams remaining in the WC chase. Based on all that, I think it will be tough for the Twins to catch them unless the Twins sweep them next week.TWINS Record: 74-69.Games ahead/back: ---Luck: 3.538.com projection: 84-78.538.com playoff likelihood: 45%Games against good: Road 3 (Cle 3).Games against middle: Road 3 (NYY 3).Games against bad: Home 9 (Tor 4, Det 3, SD 2), Road 4 (Det 4).Average record for remaining games: 67-72.Summary: The knock on the Twins is that they have over-performed according to Pythagoras, but most of the teams chasing them have as well, with the Yankees and Rangers as the exceptions. In addition, the Twins have the easiest remaining schedule, both in terms of remaining record and in terms of having 13 of their remaining 19 games against bad teams, with 9 of those games at home. Even the remaining series with Cleveland comes at a point when they maybe will have lost a game and may be working to set up rotation for the playoffs. The Royals and Yankees have the next-easiest schedules.LA ANGELS Record: 73-70.Games ahead/back: -1Luck: 1538.com projection: 83-79538.com playoff likelihood: 26%Games against good: Home 6 (Cle 3, Hou 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 6 (Sea 3, Tex 3).Games against bad: Road 4 (CWS 4).Average record for remaining games: 73-66.Summary: As of today, they are the only team within a game of the Twins, but they match Tampa Bay as having the toughest remaining schedule, with nearly half of their games against Houston (6) and Cleveland (3). Go ‘Stros!.ROYALS Record: 71-71.Games ahead/back: -2.5.Luck: 6538.com projection: 80-82538.com playoff likelihood: 5%Games against good: Home 3 (Ariz 3), Road 4 (Cle 4).Games against middle: Road 1 (NYY 1).Games against bad: Home 6 (CWS 3, Det 3), Road 6 (Tor 3, CWS 3).Average record for remaining games: 68-72.Summary: The Royals may saved their season by getting the last two games against the Twins, but they still in a tough spot, having been the luckiest team and still being 2.5 games out. What they do have going for them is that they have 12 of their remaining 20 games against bad teams, though they also have to insert a one-game trip to New York. Only the Twins have an easier schedule remaining.RANGERS Record: 71-71.Games ahead/back: -2.5.Luck: -3538.com projection: 82-80538.com playoff likelihood: 16%Games against good: Home 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 4 (Sea 4), Road 6 (LAA 3, Sea 3).Games against bad: Home 4 (Oak 4), Road 3 (Oak 3).Average record for remaining games: 69-70.Summary: Aside from the Yankees, the Rangers are the only team in which PWP regression would suggest that they pick up a game or two. They have a generally easier schedule, with just 3 home games against Houston. Oakland could be our friend by spoiling 4-5 of their remaining 7 games with the Rangers.ORIOLES Record: 71-72.Games ahead/back: -3Luck: 3538.com projection: 80-82538.com playoff likelihood: 5%Games against good: Home 3 (Bos 3).Games against middle: Home 4 (TB 4), Road 7 (NYY 4, TB 3).Games against bad: Road 5 (Pit 2, Tor 3).Average record for remaining games: 72-68.Summary: The Orioles have been as lucky as the Twins and have one of the tougher schedules, playing seven games with the teams going after their division title (three in Boston and four with New York) and seven with the Rays. The Indians series came at an inopportune time, as they were the only team to get swept this weekend.MARINERS Record: 71-72Games ahead/back: -3Luck: 2538.com projection: 79-83538.com playoff likelihood: 4%Games against good: Home 3 (Cle 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 3 (Tex 3), Road 7 (LAA 3, Tex 4).Games against bad: Road 3 (Oak 3).Average record for remaining games: 73-66.Summary: They are 3 games out, with five teams to pass, and a tough schedule. No wonder fivethirtyeight.com gives them only a 4 percent chance.RAYS Record: 71-73Games ahead/back: -3.5Luck: 0538.com projection: 79-83538.com playoff likelihood: 2%Games against good: Home 5 (Bos 2, Cubs 2).Games against middle: Home 6 (Bal 3, NYY 3), Road 7 (Bal 4, NYY 3).Games against bad: 0.Average record for remaining games: 75-65.Summary: They are 3.5 games out, with six teams to pass, and the toughest remaining schedule. Even their remaining games aren’t against teams that “matter,” since they have five with the Cubs and Boston and six against a Yankee team they aren’t going to catch, so winning games won’t give losses to the teams immediately ahead of them. They have the toughest row to hoe in every way. Explanatory notes: Team name: Duh. Record: Actual won-loss record.Games ahead/back: (In the second Wild Card chase).Luck: (this compares their Pythagorean record to their actual record, giving a suggestion of whether they are over- or under-performing. A team with a positive number (like the Twins have been for most of the year) has won more games than their runs scored/allowed would suggest).538.com projection: The final projected record based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining season, using starting pitching data, days off, and travel distances. See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-mlb-predictions/. 538.com playoff likelihood: Likelihood of making the playoffs based on those simulations.Games remaining against “good” teams: I’ve noted how many games remaining the team has against the three “good” teams in the league, which happen to be the three division leaders – Houston, Cleveland, and Boston. Because Boston is leading the division and is well ahead of the Yankees, and because the Yankees are in the Wild-Card chase, I drew the line between Boston and Yankees as the marker between “good” and “middle.”Games against “middle” teams: Games remaining against the teams that are in the middle segment of the league (Yankees, Twins, Angels, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, Toronto, Kansas City).Games against the “bad” teams: Games against the teams that have struggled (Toronto, Detroit, Oakland, White Sox).(Note: There are a few remaining interleague games which are added into the groupings.)Average record for remaining games: A quantifiable measure of their remaining strength of schedule, this is the average current record for their remaining opponents.Summary: My comments.

Rays win. Yankees winning big early over Texas. Mariners 2, Angels 1 in the 4th. And don't tell the annoying Indians fan (I know, that's redundant) at my church, but I'm going to go ahead and root for them over the Orioles tonight.

Rally chicken!

On target, though you could flip the Colon and Mejia/5th spots. Honest question here -- given the struggles of Boshers lately and that Mejia isn't fully stretched back out, would they be better served to try to get the two or three starts from Slegers/Gee/someone else and add Mejia to the pen to have another lefty option?

Exactly. After 2015, it was "We could be better in 2016 and still only win 78-80 games." Instead, we imploded. This year, even if we go .500 the rest of the way, we'll end up with 84 wins and be saying that 90 is very reachable, especially with a good off-season. I don't think any of us were thinking about 90 wins going into last year.

I hear you, but the difference to me is that two years ago I was saying, "Next year could be even better." This year I'll be saying, "Next year should be even better."

F -- Football is a waste of time when the Twins are on. G -- Gee, this season is more fun than last year. H -- Hawks are the one exception to F above. Way to beat State yesterday! I -- I'd still DVR the Hawks game and watch it later if the Twins are on. J -- Just wait until Sano gets added back to the lineup. K -- Kansas City needs to go down today. L -- Like it or not, folks,... M -- Molitor is going to get attention for Manager of the Year. N -- No, I'm not suggesting Molitor is a genius, O -- Or that he'll be back next year, but a P -- Positive gain of 25 wins of so could be a PR nightmare to let go. Q -- Quilici. Why? I don't know, but everyone breaks the rules for Q and X on this kind of list. R -- Royals need to go down today. S -- Sal Perez shouldn't be attempted to run on. T -- Twins win. U -- Uh, I'm running out of things. V -- Vargas at 1B? I know Mauer needs a break, but his glove has been huge. W -- Wild Card Fever. Catch It! X -- Xamine Q comment above. Y -- Yes, my wife just asked if I have a life. Z -- Zat's all, folks.

In my above statement of "Add the best starter we can get via free agency. Consider two if the prices are right," I would be fine with considering Colon as the second of those.

Too much bunting -- I get the complaints, especially Grossman early in the game. The steals -- sometimes they don't work. At the same, they've been showing themselves to be more aggressive on the basepaths recently, and I think that all-in-all that's a good thing. The bullpen composition -- some of us think it's horrible, but the front office has incrementally worked to improve it, never sacrificing the long-term view in the process. But I'm not sure I disagree with Molitor's bullpen management, given the context, including the last several days. To think back... He managed Thursday well, following 7 strong innings from Gibson with an inning from Hildy and an inning from his closer. He got that win in the bag.He managed Friday well. Santana was struggling and had given up three runs in his last two innings. Needing to get four innings, he went to Duffey, one of the better candidates for multiple innings, even though he has struggled recently. Duffey got him an inning and then let the first batter reach. In a higher-leverage situation, he went to Rogers, hoping to finish the 7th with him. Unfortunately the next two guys got on, so he went to Hildenberger in what was now an even-higher leverage situation. Hildy pitched great and got out of the jam on a few pitches -- a huge performance. The Twins scored twice in the top of the 8th to make it 8-5. Rather than let this one get away, Molitor ran Hildy back out for the 8th and got him through the two innings on just 18 pitches. Then he used Belisle in the closer situation, according to the book. (We can argue about whether the book was right in this situation with a 3-run lead, but we would have excoriated him if he'd gone to someone else in either the 8th or 9th and blown it. And if the Twins score another run in the 9th, he saves Belisle.). For Saturday, then, that left him with: Two wins in the bag (three if you count Wednesday against Toronto)His two best relievers -- Hildy and Belisle -- unavailable after pitching three straight days. That's the price you sometimes pay to win three straight.His third best reliever -- Rogers -- likely not available for more than 1-2 batters after pitching three of the last four days (and 41 pitches in the process, plus warmups).That sounds like a formula for "roll the dice and hope for the best" on Saturday night. So, Berrios gets through 7 innings on 94 pitches and a 2-2 tie. I kinda hoped he'd bring Berrios back out, but I can understand the logic of not. Basically, three things can happen and two of them are not good: Berrios sails through the eight on a dozen pitches or less, leaving with a pitch count just into the 100s. That's the best case.Berrios struggles a bit. He gets through the inning unscathed, but it took him 20+ pitches, pushing 120 him to pitches in the process.Berrios gets into trouble, and Molitor has to go to guys he doesn't trust, with runners on base. Here's where the dice rolling comes in. Pressley has pitched well at times and can maybe get through the inning, so he rolls the dice with him. Unfortunately Pressley gave up two baserunners.Still tied, the ineffective Pressley has to leave. Next up is a lefty, and the choices are Boshers or Rogers. But you're not going to Rogers for more than two batters. That means he would get a lefty and a righty, so this is for all practical purposes a LOOGY situation, because Yost isn't going to PH for Perez. Waiting a couple batters later are back-to-back lefties in Moustakis and Moss. So, does he want Boshers facing one batter and Rogers two, or vice versa? He wants Rogers facing two, so he rolls the dice with Boshers here. Unfortunately, Boshers gives up a hit, which scores the first run.So then, which righty do you go to? We might have liked Busenitz, but Molitor still has more confidence in Duffey. He also knew it was a one-batter situation, so I'd like to think that he was using Duffey here and saving Busenitz for the 9th if the Twins should get fortunate enough to have a lead. Unfortunately, Perez doubles and drives in the second run.If any of Pressley, Boshers, or Duffey had gotten even one out, Molitor is sitting with Rogers to face the two lefties in Moustakis and Moss. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, and Perez compounded the problem by doubling, so the logical move is to intentionally walk Moustakis to set up the double play. Molitor lets Duffey take responsibility for the four-finger salute does before he exits.And then Rogers comes in and gets his out against the remaining lefty, and it's still a two-run game. So you roll the dice with Busenitz and hope for a rally.Busenitz gets the two outs, but unfortunately, one of them scores a third run.And the Twins don't rally. The Twins lost the game, but Molitor got them through to Sunday with a generally available bullpen and an off-day Monday. Rogers may not be available today after pitching in 4 out of 5 games, but it was only 11 pitches in the last three days, so he might again be available for 1-2 batters. Similarly, Duffey may not be available after pitching back-to-back days, but it was only 11 pitches. But everyone else is available, though I'm sure he'd love a blowout to give Belisle, Hildy and others an extra day before taking on the Padres. Going to KC, I think the goal was to win 3 of 4, and they are in position to do it thanks at least in part to how Molitor handled the bullpen.

And I fall to .500. But that still keeps me in the playoff race.

Now at 94 pitches. One more?

This would be a really good time to hit a ball really far. <edit> Farther than that.

And again?

BB! Or should I say... B2!

An additional broadcasting tidbit -- the Twins radio guys said that tonight is Royals radio guy Ryan Lefebvre's 3000th game, combining radio and TV.

Or, in a nod to the literature people, should l say... e.e.!

E.E.!

Baseball-reference.com has a nice standings page that allows for combining a lot of great information. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2017-standings.shtml From there, I've decided to boil down some of the data to a working scoresheet of the remainder of the season and make some suggestions as to how things seem to shape up for the Twins and the other teams in the Wild Card mix. This does not take into account any of today’s action. A few explanatory notes for each team’s profile: Team name: Duh. Record: Actual won-loss record.Games ahead/back: (In the second Wild Card chase).Luck: (this compares their Pythagorean record to their actual record, giving a suggestion of whether they are over- or under-performing. A team with a positive number (like the Twins have been for most of the year) has won more games than their runs scored/allowed would suggest).Games remaining against “good” teams: I’ve noted how many games remaining the team has against the three “good” teams in the league, which happen to be the three division leaders – Houston, Cleveland, and Boston. Because Boston is leading the division and is well ahead of the Yankees, and because the Yankees are in the Wild-Card chase, I drew the line between Boston and Yankees as the marker between “good” and “middle.”Games against “middle” teams: Games remaining against the teams that are in the middle segment of the league (Yankees, Twins, Angels, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, Toronto, Kansas City).Games against the “bad” teams: Games against the teams that have struggled (Toronto, Detroit, Oakland, White Sox). (Note: There are a few remaining interleague games which are added into the groupings.)Average record for remaining games: A quantifiable measure of their remaining strength of schedule, this is the average current record for their remaining opponents.Summary: My comments. Here goes… YANKEES Record: 75-65.Games ahead/back: +1.5Luck: -9Games against good: 0Games against middle: Home 11 (Min 3, Bal 4, TB 3, KC 1), Road 5 (TB 3, Tex 2).Games against bad: Home 3 (Tor 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).Average record for remaining games: 69-72.Summary: Their Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) has them 9 games better than their actual record. They are the only team in the mix with no games remaining against a good team. They also have 14 of their remaining 22 games at home, including 11 of 16 of the games against teams remaining in the WC chase. Based on all that, I think it will be tough for the Twins to catch them.TWINS Record: 74-67.Games ahead/back: ---Luck: 3.Games against good: Road 3 (Cle 3).Games against middle: Road 5 (NYY 3, KC 2).Games against bad: Home 9 (Tor 4, Det 3, SD 2), Road 4 (Det 4).Average record for remaining games: 67-72.Summary: The knock on the Twins is that they have over-performed, but 5 of the 8 in the WC chase have done that as well. Only the Yankees and Rangers have under-performed, so the Twins are not the only team that would be expected to regress a bit. In addition, the Twins have the easiest remaining schedule, both in terms of remaining record and in terms of having 13 of their remaining 21 games against bad teams, with 9 of those games at home. The remaining schedule seems to be as much in the Twins favor as it is for anyone, save the Yankees and Royals.LA ANGELS Record: 72-69.Games ahead/back: -2Luck: 1Games against good: Home 6 (Cle 3, Hou 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 6 (Sea 3, Tex 3), Road 2 (Sea 2).Games against bad: Road 4 (CWS 4).Average record for remaining games: 73-66.Summary: The Angels have one of the toughest remaining schedules, with only Tampa Bay having a tougher schedule. They have the most games remaining against good teams, and Houston could do us a favor by stomping on them.TEXAS Record: 71-69.Games ahead/back: -2.5.Luck: -3Games against good: Home 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 6 (NYY 2, Sea 4), Road 6 (LAA 3, Sea 3).Games against bad: Home 4 (Oak 4), Road 3 (Oak 3).Average record for remaining games: 69-70.Summary: Aside from the Yankees, the Rangers are the only team in which PWP regression would suggest that they pick up a game or two. Combined with having a generally easy schedule, with just 3 games against good teams (all at home) and 7 against bad teams makes this the team that at least on paper appears to be the most threatening to me.ORIOLES Record: 71-70.Games ahead/back: -3.5Luck: 4Games against good: Home 3 (Bos 3), Road 2 (Cle 2).Games against middle: Home 4 (TB 4), Road 7 (NYY 4, TB 3).Games against bad: Road 5 (Pit 2, Tor 3).Average record for remaining games: 72-68.Summary: The Orioles have been luckier than the Twins and have one of the toughest remaining schedules, including playing Cleveland today and tomorrow amidst their winning streak. At 3.5 games back, they have a tough row to hoe.MARINERS Record: 70-71.Games ahead/back: -4Luck: 2.Games against good: Home 3 (Cle 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).Games against middle: Home 5 (LAA 2, Tex 3), Road 7 (LAA 3, Tex 4).Games against bad: Road 3 (Oak 3).Average record for remaining games: 73-66.Summary: Have also been lucky and have a tough remaining schedule. They have only 3 games remaining against bad teams, so they are less likely to benefit from opponents’ ineptitude. Also in a tough spot.RAYS Record: 70-72.Games ahead/back: -4.5Luck: 0Games against good: Home 5 (Bos 2, Cubs 2), Road 2 (Bos 2).Games against middle: Home 6 (Bal 3, NYY 3), Road 7 (Bal 4, NYY 3).Games against bad: 0.Average record for remaining games: 75-65.Summary: The Rays are probably in the toughest spot in terms of reaching the playoffs. Not only are they behind five other teams, they have the toughest remaining schedule, with 8 of their remaining 20 games against good teams and none against bad teams.ROYALS Record: 69-71.Games ahead/back: -4.5.Luck: 6Games against good: Home 3 (Ariz 3), Road 4 (Cle 4).Games against middle: Home 2 (Min 2), Road 1 (NYY 1).Games against bad: Home 6 (CWS 3, Det 3), Road 6 (Tor 3, CWS 3).Average record for remaining games: 68-72.Summary: The Royals also are in a tough spot, having been lucky and being at the bottom of this list. What they do have going for them is that they have 12 of their remaining 22 games against bad teams. Only the Twins have an easier schedule. They really could use these two games against the Twins.

And I guess that would mean 9/25/17 as well. THEN, not until 1/1/19.

Great story on two counts -- the math, yes, but also the long-term memory of a wonderful teacher. What a blessing to have those kinds of folks in our lives.

And here's the Twins lineup: 2B Brian Dozier (R ) 1B Joe Mauer (L) SS Jorge Polanco (S) LF Eddie Rosario (L) CF Byron Buxton (R ) RF Max Kepler (L) 3B Eduardo Escobar (S) C Jason Castro (L) DH Robbie Grossman (S)

Warning: There’s math. I decided to put my 1.000 winning percentage on the line by signing up for today’s Game Thread. Okay, I’m only 1-0, but still, 1.000 is 1.000. We were 1-0 on April 3, and look where that's gotten us. It's a lot better than last year's 0-1. And when I signed up for the 9/9/17 game, I realized that that’s a square number followed by another square number, followed by a prime number. I’m kind of a nerd, so it made me wonder how often that pattern happens. Turns out, it’s not as rare as I thought it might be, given that there are three months that are squares (1, 4, 9), five days of the month that are squares (those, plus 16 and 25), and 25 years in a century that are prime (you don’t want me to list them.). That gives us 3 x 5 x 25 = 375 permutations of square-square-prime over the course of the century. The next one will be on 1/1/19. On the other hand, I drove by a school a few weeks ago that had a sign outside naming the date – 8/15/17 – as a Pythagorean date. That’s because (8x8) + (15x15) = (17 x 17), which is of course represented by the famous a2 + b2 = c2. Turns out that Pythagorean triplet dates are considerably more rare than square-square-prime dates. There are four “base” right triangles where one leg is 12 or less (which can be the month, day, or year), the other leg 31 or less (which can be the day or year), and the hypotenuse is 99 or less (the year). Those are 3-4-5, 5-12-13, 7-24-25, and 8-15-17. And of course, a right triangle can be scaled up. That is, you can take each leg times 2, making 6-8-10 from the original 3-4-5, continuing along to 9-12-15 and 12-15-20. We could keep going, but there’s no 16th month, so it’s pointless for our purpose. Of the original four, only 5-12-13 can also be doubled and fit within both the month and date range. (If I said “original six,” I’d not only be incorrect, but I’d start thinking about hockey, but I digress.) And then, we must remember that the popular 3-4-5 right triangle gives four date permutations in a century (3/4/05, 4/3/05, 5/3/04, and 5/4/03). (I’m considering it okay to also allow c2 = a2 + b2, but of course we can’t put the hypotenuse in the middle. I'm not going to allow b2 = c2 - a2, for example. It's my game, so we play by my rules.) So, by my math (see what I did there?), here’s your list of Pythagorean triplets that fit the limitations, along with the number of available permutations for each: 3- 4- 5: 4 permutations (3/4/05, 4/3/05, 5/4/03, 4/5/03) 6- 8-10: 4 (6/8/10, 8/6/10, 10/6/08, 10/8/06) 9-12-15: 2 (9/12/15, 12/9/15) 12-16-20: 1 5-12-13: 2 (5/12/13, 12/5/13) 10-24-26: 1 8-15-17: 1 Total 15 permutations So the recent 8/15/17 is one of only 15 Pythagorean triplet dates in a century. That’s more common than a solar eclipse, but still pretty rare. And for the close reader, we’re already had 13 of them in this century, so that only leaves us with Dec. 16, 2020, and October 24, 2026 as the remaining Pythagorean dates this century. Start planning your parties for those two, folks, because unless one of us goes all Ted Williams on us and gets thawed in 70 years or so, most of us probably won’t be around on 4/5/(21)03. But I digress. And speaking of parties, would it surprise you that my equally nerdy son’s favorite day of school was always March 14, since his math teacher would bring pi(e) to class to celebrate its 3/14ness? You can imagine the frivolity that happened on 3/14/15 at 9:26:54 in the morning. I think they got ice cream as a bonus or something. He also points out that European kids miss out on that treat, because there's no school on 22 July when they could celebrate it being 22/7. So with all that out of the way, let’s go ahead and insert a little baseball into this until-now math thread. After all, baseball and numbers go together. For example: Yogi Berra supposedly said, “You’d better cut that pizza into six pieces. I don’t think I can eat eight.”And Hank Aaron supposedly said, “It took me almost 20 years to get 3000 hits on the baseball field. I did it in one afternoon on the golf course.”And who among us didn’t learn how to do long division by calculating batting averages and winning percentages? Why, just this week I gave my schoolteacher wife an incredulous look for not knowing that 3 out of 7 is approximately .428(571428 repetitiously). The look she gave me in return was, shall we say, incredulous squared, but I digress. I do like to digress. So, how does today’s game shape up by the numbers? Well, first there’s the Magic Number. You may think it’s too early to be worried about Magic Numbers, but I will point out that with any combination of 3 Twins win and White Sox losses, the Twins are guaranteed to finish ahead of the Team That Plays in the Monument to Cement. After all, in any season, the ultimate goal is to win the World Series. The penultimate goal is to win the league. The antepenultimate goal is to win the division. And the preantepenultimate goal is to win a wild card. But the FIRST goal in any season is to beat the White Sox. And we’re getting close to having that in the bag. (And yes, “preantepenultimate” is a word. Really. The same math-nerd son is also a grammar and word nerd. Actually, he’s an all-purpose nerd. But he’s my nerd, and I love him. As a shameless plug, check out this site he put together providing Google maps of every team’s radio network: http://sabrmedia.org/2017/08/03/now-available-cool-maps-of-mlb-teams-radio-networks/. How this applies to today’s game is to note that in geographic terms, the Twins and Royals radio networks are significantly larger than any of their division rivals.) (And at the same site is a link to a downloadable database showing the broadcasters in every nationally televised game since 1947 (though he’s a few weeks behind). How that applies to this game is that Bert (30) and Dick (11) have a combined 41 national telecasts. That’s dwarfed by the Royals’ Steve Physioc, who has done 316 by himself. That ranks him 22nd in career totals. Physioc’s 312 play-by-play games ranks 13th.) But back to the math (I told you I like to digress.). There’s also Pythagoras as it relates to winning percentages. Much was made earlier in the season about how we were dramatically overperforming our Pythagorean winning percentage (PWP), which is calculated as RunsScored1.83/(RunsScored1.83 + RunsAllowed1.83). With last night’s win, we have outscored opponents 700-699, which would suggest a record of 70.5-70.5. That barely rounds to 71-70. At 74-68, we’re three games ahead of that, which is on the edge of the “normal” range. A 44-0 win today would put our PWP right in line with our actual winning percentage. I like that option much better than eight consecutive 1-0 losses, which is how we could play ourselves down to our PWP. And one last stat. Though this Game Thread opening is still long, it’s only 75 percent as long as my prior effort. That’s about three-fourths as long, but you already knew that. I digress. Twins lineup coming soon: Twins P: Jose Berrios (R ), 12-7, 4.01 Royals P: Jakob Junis (R ), 7-2, 4.48. 2B: Whit Merrifield (R ) CF: Lorenzo Cain (R ) RF: Melky Cabrera (S) 1B: Eric Hosmer (L) C: Salvador Perez (R ) 3B: Mike Moustakas (L) DH: Brandon Moss (L) SS: Alcides Escobar (R ) LF: Alex Gordon (L) Gametime forecast: 83 degrees (28 C), 1% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph (8 kph) from right to left.

I'm not sure whether to consider this a good thing or a bad thing, but my son who just went off to college has asked me to send him some TD jokes.