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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    I’d move Salazar up to No. 2. And Buchholz up considerably. I know there’s virtually no likelihood of the latter making a full season, but I’d like it if there’s at least a likelihood of him making 8 starts.
  2. IndianaTwin
    Forgot about Hill heading to the 60-day IL. That will free up a spot to add Taijuan Walker to the roster after he lights up on Ft. Myers on his minor league contract.
  3. IndianaTwin
    "I'm No Stranger to the Rain," when the Blue Jays, A's, or any other former club is the visiting team. "Smoky Mountain Rain" (keeps on fallin') is the appropriate choice after a second homer.
  4. IndianaTwin
    Great article on the Donaldson signing: http://www.startribune.com/twins-invitation-to-josh-donaldson-finally-got-a-response-it-s-a-deal/567112922/?refresh=true As to the question, “can they afford to wait,” I’m more concerned about making a smart move than I am with when. In other words, if opportunity arrives now, sure. But if it doesn’t, don’t make a drastic move just for the sake of making a move — wait and see how things play out with what they’ve got, including rookies. But then be aggressive with mid-season trades if the need is still there. At this point, it seems unlikely that teams will want to trade their “ace.” If it happens before the season, much more likely to me is a low-level-prospect-for-Odorizzi-level trade, and I like the FO’s ability to spot the under-valued. I would like to see another option or two in the spring training mix, however. We’re at the point where minor league contracts are becoming more prevalent, and I’d like to see them fish in that pond, even if it’s just to have another possibility for eight times through the rotation. Among what’s out there, I’m intrigued by: Taijuan WalkerDanny SalazarFelix HernandezClay Buchholz
  5. IndianaTwin
    Always looking for opportunities to share my favorite grammar joke... Guy from the country has gone to Boston and is walking around the campus at Harvard. He walks up to a person in requisite tweed jacket with the corduroy elbow patches and says, "Excuse me, but could you tell me where the library is at?" Tweed jacket guy ignores the visitor and starts to walk on. Country hick chases him down and says, "Excuse me, sir. Could you tell me where the library is at?" Tweed jacket guy rises up on his heels and says, "I'm sorry, but at Hah-vard University, we do NOT end questions with a preposition." Hick pauses for a moment before finally saying, "Okay, sir. Could you tell me where the library is at, you jerk?" You may now return to your regularly scheduled discussion.
  6. IndianaTwin
    And to give Donaldson time to swing by Applebee’s to pick up the gift card to give to Rosario in exchange for being able to wear No. 20.
  7. IndianaTwin
    For seven or eight times through the rotation, at which time he slips to fourth (unless he continues last year’s second half). And I’m not convinced they won’t still get another arm better than Bailey, even if it’s not better than Berrios. To your other post on Hill — lottery pick perhaps, but he’s had 20 or more starts in three of the last four years and has pitched in the last four playoffs, even when he’s missed part of the season. If we’re indeed the division favorite we seem to think we are, he can be brought along very slowly.
  8. IndianaTwin
    Which, among other things, also allows time for the physical and to explore whether they can get a lottery pick out of whoever they would otherwise be DFAing.
  9. IndianaTwin
    (Using this post as representative of those thinking we still need a higher-end pitcher.) On one hand, I get it, although I personally think Berrios is closer to an “ace” than others seem to think he is, particularly given that he’s still on the upside. At the same time, my hunch is that some on AstrosDaily are saying, “Holy cow — sure we can run out Verlander and Greinke against Berrios and Odorizzi, but then the Twins have Pineda and Hill and we’ve only got McCullers and Jose Urquidy. McCullers is coming back from TJS, and he’s never had more than 22 starts in a season and Urquidy only has 41 big league innings. And if somebody’s hurt, they can use Bailey and we’ve got Brad Peacock. Plus they have that Dobnak guy and Graterol. If Verlander or Greinke get hurt, we’re cooked.” Point being, while there may be a few teams tougher at the very top of the rotation, I’m not sure there’s many that are as deep as the Twins. And there’s still that lineup...
  10. IndianaTwin
    Speed isn’t that big of a deal when you’re in a trot.
  11. IndianaTwin
    NOW can I say that it was too early to evaluate the offseason on January 11? It’s still too early, by the way.
  12. IndianaTwin
    I’m with you. I’ve heard folks talk about regression, but the fact of the matter is also that a whole lot of guys are on the right side of the career progression curve as well. Oh, and I just arrived in eastern Iowa on business. Keep the rainy and dreary out there, will you?
  13. IndianaTwin
    By “one-game playoff exit,” which of the three games are you referring to?
  14. IndianaTwin
    Thanks — that’s really helpful. It also highlights a perception I’ve had that while Sano’s defense is below average, it’s not REALLY, REALLY bad, to the degree of doing something like, oh, I don’t know, trying him in the outfield. But that’s because I don’t know how to interpret fielding statistics. I’m guessing I’m not the only one. I’d love to see someone write an article that could serve as a primer on defensive stats, highlighting what they each mean, what are perceived as the strengths and weaknesses of each stat, what’s the range of players (i.e., at what number does below average turn into bad turn into horrible, and similarly on the positive side), etc.
  15. IndianaTwin
    Oops. I forgot that there isn’t supposed to be any math.
  16. IndianaTwin
    Bad day at game > Good day at office
  17. IndianaTwin
    I believe it’s May 11 on Pineda.
  18. IndianaTwin
    Definitely agree that it’s a problem of their own making, but it WAS the situation they were looking at on Nov. 1. I get what you’re saying about the activity level, but I’d differ on the interpretation. The goal is always to fill 100 percent of your needs from the end of one year to the next, whether that’s two spots to fill on a roster or 20. I don’t give them extra credit for their work since Nov. 1st — that WAS their work. Related, then, I would add that that’s another small success of this offseason that I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere. They’ve now got Berrios and Pineda under contract for 2021. That’s also part of why I’ve been advocating additional negotiation with Odo to turn his one-year contract into an extension. And while I’ve been advocating here or elsewhere for continued exploration of still more starting pitching through trade or even minor league contracts, the reality is that between injury and attrition, several from among the Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe/Graterol, etc. will get the chance to audition. If one or more of them comes through to the point that they can be counted on for 2021, that would be three or four rotation spots filled. And then, next year I’ll evaluate their offseason according to how much they improve the team between Nov. 1 and Opening Day 2021. I’d love it if they have less work to do next year!
  19. IndianaTwin
    Thanks for quantifying these. To nitpick a tiny bit, it’s not a complete apples-to-apples to say that we replaced Cron with 2020 Gonzalez, since we also have to replace 2019 Gonzalez the bench player in that case. Similarly, counting on 2020 Arraez to replace Schoop means that we also have to replace 2019 Arraez. I think that’s why there’s interest from a lot of us in picking up at least one more hitter, with some wanting to jump in with both feet on Donaldson, some going after Bryant in another thread, and others naming the Moreland/Bird route. I do concur with the gist of your post, however. You’ve also helped to illustrate a point that I’ve made in a number of threads along the way, namely that this front office’s M.O. seems to be to make a high volume of moves that each nudge the needle a little bit, rather than making a few big-splash moves. I think that’s why they are VERY reluctant to make moves that they think will paint themselves into an even a tiny bit of a corner — they place a premium on future flexibility. Thus, I suspect they will sign very, very few FOs to contracts more than four years, with most of them being one and two years. They also seem big on tacking an option year whenever they get a chance, which I like a lot.
  20. IndianaTwin
    I think he can be a good contributor at the back of the rotation. The thing you may all want to be concerned about, however, is that I was one of the last people off the Mike Pelfrey bandwagon...
  21. IndianaTwin
    I haven’t played with sites like baseballtradevalues.com, but they would suggest that either Lewis or Kiriloff is a big overpay for Bryant straight up. Graterol or Larnach are the two that are closest to Bryant in a 1 for 1. In a 2 for 1, think something like Balzovic and Urbina. In a 3 for 1, Jeffers, Urbina and one of Gordon, Enlow, or Celestino. The second paragraph has names I like, but none that are untouchable. Between Bryant and Donaldson, I think they are pretty comparable for 2020 and 2021, and I think we’d be glad not to be paying Donaldson $25MM in 2022 and 2023.
  22. IndianaTwin
    For what it’s worth, I was able to find a site that listed total DL/IL days by season. It wasn’t updated for 2019, but for the previous 10 years, the Twins averaged 721 DL/IL days, so probably around 4 FTE would be more accurate, or a little over $2M.
  23. IndianaTwin
    Thank you, Tvagle. WIth all of the moving parts and now arbitration numbers available, it’s helpful to have a current snapshot. Question/comment/observation — it seems to be like I read somewhere that in doing projections like this, one also needs to add some allowance for the fact that with IL stints and the like, one has to include an allowance for bringing up additional guys. Usually those are going to be minimum salary guys, but I’m thinking the suggestion was that on average, a person should fill the spreadsheet out to 33 “full-time equivalents,” to use a term from elsewhere in my life. Does anyone else recall that? It doesn’t appear that your snapshot does that, correct? If so, even if one uses your inclusion of Hill as one of those extra spots, that would still need another six bodies at $600K. So then we’re talking about needing to go to $150MM to get Donaldson, which also wouldn’t take into account the possibility of any additional extensions or taking on any mid-season money above minimum salary. Under that scenario, a Donaldson signing seems less and less likely. Alternatively, I see that you have Sano’s extension in as 9-9-9. Do you know if that’s been confirmed, as opposed to some progression like 6-9-12 leading into the possibility of 14? If the latter, that would gain back the several million I added with the extra bodies.
  24. IndianaTwin
    With Syndergaard and someone else I’m not remembering at the time, it felt like there were some decent comparables for year 2, but there weren’t good ones for year 3. And if you’re right, then the free agency year number I gave is probably a little light. But, with the numbers exchanged, there’s a small savings in year one. Of course, the best way to answer the question is for them to agree to a deal and let us know what the numbers are!
  25. IndianaTwin
    I disagree with your first two paragraphs. But the post is still worthy of a “like” for the great way of poking fun at me and others who disagree!
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