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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Regardless of how this turns out, I will never rip the Twins for taking a high upside arm in the first round. Especially a lefty and in this case, his floor looks to be a really good reliever. Similarly, even if Meyer completely flames out I won't rip that trade. We will never participate in signing an ace on the FA market. So the draft is about the only avenue. And to get a really good one with 6-7 years control would be huge.
  2. tobi0040
    Solid point SD
  3. tobi0040
    Depth is definitely a great problem. But with Plouffe under control another two years and Dozier I believe another three, if he is not a SS then something has to change (unless you have a major injury to either guy).
  4. tobi0040
    If not, we have a system issue. Like when we hear how raw Kepler was. I hope two years in the Twins system from 16 to 18 is head and shoulders better than high school. At a minimum that should have caught him up a fair amount.
  5. tobi0040
    It seems like he is too good to keep at AAA much longer. With plouffe at 3b and Dozier at 2b, under contract for at least the next two years it would seem he is either a SS or he or someone else is moving.
  6. tobi0040
    Good info Spy. That is what I thought. Maybe more raw than most, but not to the point that we should be making a ton of excuses for him 2-3 years later. A ton of top pitchers played more than one sport. Many were probabably QB's. Joe Mauer played QB and basketball and he was in the majors at Kohl's age.
  7. tobi0040
    Could be. It seems like a lot of top pitchers also played other sports though. Was he that much more raw than others? I honestly don't know the answer to this.
  8. tobi0040
    Based on wild velocity dips, mechanics, and the lack of k's, I think Kohl is a talented project at this point.
  9. tobi0040
    Well, I am not sure one year is a great guide, especially for a reliever. I do know that Steve Cishek's career ERA plus is 139. Stauffer is at 92.
  10. tobi0040
    "All told, the Twins are going to spend $34.8 million, or roughly a third of their payroll, on these three pitchers with limited upside. And they paid essentially the going rate for all three of them." Yup. They refuse to pay top dollar for upper shelf talent in free agency. I would rather we do that and fill the rest of the roster in with young guys or fill-in type FA players. For examples, holes at DH, 1B, LF, and RF can typically be found with cheaper FA's and some platooning. Have a few of those guys and a top guy or two.
  11. tobi0040
    Yeah. Smith got fleeced a few times. It wasn't just that we lost in the garza trade, Gomez for hardy, then hardy for Hoey trade.....we also gave up on Hardy and Gomez too early.
  12. tobi0040
    I agree SD. It is not clear to me that Park is better than Arcia or Vargas right away.
  13. tobi0040
    I agree with you in a sense. If we take a Nishi approach with Park, then I don't mind it at all. If anything it is a good risk/reward. But if he is sitting in that just above .700 OPS range and seeing at bats over multiple years because of his contract, then it is a horrible move. The flip side is what success looks like. If Park averages a .780 OPS for four years, are we going to claim victory and call this a great signing? I bet we do. But like I showed, Arcia/Carter platooning could provide about the same numbers without the four year commitment.
  14. tobi0040
    If we platooned Arcia and Cris Carter at DH, we would be running out a near .800 OPS based on their career numbers. Carter signed for 1 year and $2.5M. I am guessing you could find a superior bat against lefties for slightly more money but he was the first guy I looked up on the FA list. I don’t think Park is anywhere near a lock to exceed that. He struck out 25% of the time in Korea. If that translates to 28% or higher here, here is a quick list of guys last year with a k rate over 28%. Only Davis and Bryant exceeded that OPS number. Here is the list of guys with a k rate above 28% Chris Davis 31% .920 OPS (47 HR) Michael Taylor 30.9% .640 OPS Kris Bryant 30.6% .857 OPS Ian Desmond 29.2% .674 OPS Joc Pederson 29.1% .760 OPS Addison Russell 28.5% .695 OPS Brandon Moss 28.1% .711 OPS But the biggest issue with the Park signing is this was an area of depth prior to his signing. Now he has a four year deal. Nishi only played 68 games, but he was really, really bad. Un-playable. My fear with Park is that he has a .700 to .725 OPS and gets 1,500 at bats as our DH the next 3-4 years.
  15. tobi0040
    Whether St. Peter , Smith, or guys like Anthony, it seems troubling to me that the Twins prefer internal candidates from totally unrelated business backgrounds like PR, Operations, Ticket Sales, etc. to run at times player personnel.
  16. tobi0040
    Yeah, me jumping to 2016 notes that I completely agree about 2012 to 2014. We weren't building a winner with 125m. In hindsight maybe we could have in 2015 but a year ago did not seem like a lets go for it moment.
  17. tobi0040
    Bird, I remember during the SNL debates in 2000 when Al Gore interrupted the moderator and said "I am going to answer that question as if it were asked to me". In this case I will be Al Gore. The reality is you can never gaurantee a division title. One of the predictors last year had KC at 72 wins. But I think you could put a much better team on the field. We are at $108m now. I would have not tendered Milone, Fein, and I would have traded Plouffe. That brings me to $95m. Player moves - May is in the rotation. Sano is at 3b. The Plouffe trade brings me a dominant reliever, replacing May. If nolasco isn't tearing it up in ST he does not make the team. If he does he is in the pen. If he isn't lighting the world on fire by May 1, he is DFA'd. I am signing mark Lowe and Steve Cishek (add $10m). And denard Span is coming home (10m). Not sure about the other $10m. I suppose you could find about the best pure bat out there not named Cespedes. I think we could have Arcia hit lefties and sign a platoon DH that can hit lefties. That should not cost much. I think relative to the team we field this year, our pen and OF defense is much better. The rotation is the same. And the DH we could sign will outhit Park.
  18. tobi0040
    In three years on this site, I have never heard anyone say that the best way to build a team is through free agency.
  19. tobi0040
    So he has to say he has a payroll limitation? I go off actions. It is 100% obvious the Pohlad's and Terry Ryan have had the discussion. Keep repeating that we are supporting and that you can add to make the team better.
  20. tobi0040
    You look back to 2011 or 2012 and think, if we were bad to the point of: -No money should be spent to upgrade the roster because we were that bad -We had next to nothing on the way from the farm to help That means a 3-5 year spell of being awful. There is literally no way around it. We really, really should have traded 28-29 year old Joe Mauer. Now I get that this looks brilliant in hindsight. But We had to know that a 33-34 year old Joe was not going to be the same player and likely not catching anymore, so it should have been explored. I get the PR issue. But I am not sure fans would be too irate nowadays. I am not a toe in the water type of guy. You are either in or you are out.
  21. tobi0040
    And even that interest was a complete joke. They "were interested" in a one year, $3-4 million dollar contract for a guy the market paid 2-12. They were interested in paying 33% of one guys market value.
  22. tobi0040
    Stauffer and Boyer were dumpster pick ups. You could use the same logic for any position. "You should not spend money on an OF, look at Joe Benson".
  23. tobi0040
    I agree with the broad point that this team will either sink or swim based on the prospects. That is true for almost all franchises. But you have to be able to supplement your rosters needs. I don’t see us doing a ton of that and I don’t see any real evidence of good young guys being blocked because of high priced veterans. Sano was out all of 2014. Buxton and Rosario moved fairly quick, given Buxton’s at bats last year, maybe too quick. I used to think Meyer should have moved quicker, but the Twins look like the smart one there. And I think May to the pen was a man-made issue based on not addressing the pen. I don’t think you have to move May to the pen because tendering Milone was something we just had to do.
  24. tobi0040
    I just looked at the guys out there. Not much on one year deals. Had we gone two years for Mark Lowe is Steve Cishek, I think the same principles apply. On the trade front, the Mets didn't give up a ton for Alex Torres. He is under team control until 2019 and has a career ERA+ of 137. Fein and Jepsen are in the 110 range. I think we have an intriguing group of young talent for the pen. Don't get me wrong. But Glen is the only reliever with a contract for 2017. We have continually invested high draft picks in these guys and we hear they are could be "fast risers". But so far very few, if any have demanded a spot. So holding six spots in 2017 for them seems really foolish. Some of these guys were not very good last year (Reed and Meyer). Melotakis didn't throw a pitch. Some of these guys will struggle this year and/or get hurt.
  25. tobi0040
    I think the Twins could have been more aggressive with the pen. It is a need and they could have found a reliever that would have been among the top three in our pen on a one year deal. In no way restrictive of future payrolls and without question would not be blocking anyone for at least the first half of the year.
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