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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Great article Jeremey and thanks for your input Seth. I would absolutely extend Jepsen in the 2-11 or 2-12 range, I would ask for a 3rd year option but he would likely pass. Given we have Perkins who has some health concerns and a bunch of young guys, it would be nice to have a little stability for the next few years. If Perkins gets hurt again and several young guys don't perform, I don't have confidence this team will go out make an investment in the pen. Worst case, a few of the young guys are lights out and Jepsen is your 4th best reliever. That is a pretty good worst case.
  2. tobi0040
    They have moved all the PR folks to talent evaluation/scouting roles. The Twins are a true pioneer in that regard.
  3. tobi0040
    My guess is Much like the Johan trade, we had it lined up for a long time but we're not thrilled with the return and we're hoping for something better. When better doesn't arrive we take it. I know that we had a different GM but I think that is what is going on. The Twins have arguably more money and time invested in Sano than anyone ever. So I don't think you take this 16 year old in 2009 and then after 6-7 years at 3b and not a single rep in the OF you hand him and OF glove on opening day at 22. It would also make sense if the Plouffe trade revolves around a reliever. We haven't done much on that front this offseason
  4. tobi0040
    I have been skeptical this whole time. It never made sense. This is a leverage based move. I think Plouffe is moved within 60 days.
  5. tobi0040
    Graham and Meyer are a bit of a stretch. Graham had a 4.95 ERA and had he not been a Rule 5 guy would have never thrown a pitch up here last year. Meyer is new to the pen and had no idea where he was throwing the ball last year.
  6. tobi0040
    I don't think this is a consensus view. Most were excited about at least a few of these signings. The disconnect is not an I told you so hindsight view, but rather a sunk cost approach regarding Nolasco. Very few are arguing Santana or Hugges should not be in the rotation And I have made this comment and I have seen similar comments from others. If a really good starter costs $25m a year and Nolasco costs $12m a year, does it make sense to move a talented controlled starter to the pen because you don't want to spend 5-6m on an above average reliever? That is where a good chunk of this frustration stems from
  7. tobi0040
    The core of those pens were Nathan, Crain, Rincon, and Romero. Before that you had Eddie and Hawkins. Almost all were home grown with the exception of Nathan. None of the core guys were bargain bin guys
  8. tobi0040
    Clippard is reportedly seeking a two year deal. I would guess under 2-20. He is really, really good. Given that he and Perkins would be the only relievers making real money and if you look around at KC and NYY as examples, we are out-gunned big time
  9. tobi0040
    I totally agree. Making an argument for Boyer is more of the same. Resign average-ish guys at $2-3M a year like Duensing and Fien, then take 1-2 fliers on one year guys. Some sort of work out for a little bit like Burton and Boyer. But in the end the law of averages usually takes over. Others, like Stauffer completely bomb and represent money that could have been invested in a guy with some sort of track record.
  10. tobi0040
    That was a one year look on a small sample (all relievers have a small sample any one year) Boyers career ERA+ is 98. League average in 2014 and out of the league the previous 3 seasons. Bastardo is 109, and has had a 129 or higher in 3 of the last 5 years. The other two he has been about league average. Clippard's career average is 138. Been a stud for years.
  11. tobi0040
    What frustrates me about Terry Ryan is he would rather take two 1 year, $3M gambles every year than sign a sure thing on a 2-3 year deal at $6M per year. What would you rather have? Tony Sipp and a rookie at $6M, or two from the bargain bin at $3M a year? Typically guys with serious injury concerns. Rich Harden types. Guys that have made 31 appearances in the last three years. If you have $5-10M of your payroll every year devoted to these, wouldn't it just be better to sign an actual productive player with that money?
  12. tobi0040
    Also note that he only played in 118 games. So the 2.3 WAR and 16 assists were very good. Rosario was always a free swinger and put up good numbers in the minors. I think he needs to adjust a bit given the tape and talent at this level. Many 23 year olds learn to take more pitches as they age. In his first year as a pro, Carlos Gomez k'd 5.7 times for every walk. That number has been cut to under 3. I have no doubts Rosario can hit 15-20 HR a year, 30 plus 2B while playing very good LF and swiping 20 bags.
  13. tobi0040
    If some of the OPS numbers here hold, we would have an amazing offense. Particularly, Buxton at .788. Park at .800. Mauer at .787. And Murphy at .690. Huge upgrades over last year.
  14. tobi0040
    I don't really care what his average is. He has done a decent job taking walks and if he continues to hit 24+ HR with 35-40 2B, he will one of the better hitting 2B in baseball. On that list of top pull hitters, Jose Bautista, Chris Davis, and Troy Tulowitski have been household names for quite some time. David Ortiz is another. Since 2012 a vast majority of his HR's have been to right field and have actually been away from Fenway.
  15. tobi0040
    His power has been pull heavy for some time though. He has very quick hands and can take a pitch on the outer half and yank it over the left field wall. Look at the top 10 on that list. Most have been pretty solid for years now.
  16. tobi0040
    I think Rosario's bat can play in a corner but Hicks likely won't.
  17. tobi0040
    I agree with you for the most part. But last year, I don't think any team would have put him in the MLB rotation. He had no idea where his fastball was going and his wicked slider rarely is thrown for a strike . So the game plan was let him throw two balls and either sit on the fastball down the middle or take a walk.
  18. tobi0040
    That is funny. Because it is true.
  19. tobi0040
    While you remembered correctly, it is tough after 25 career starts to label a guy. Most young pitchers have a few clunkers in their first starts that drag IP/start down. Gibson for example averaged 5 IP his first 10 starts.
  20. tobi0040
    This is spot on and what has frustrated me. Somehow Milone is a lock for the rotation and May is the odd man out. I just don't get it If we can turn a #5 starter (Milone) for an above average reliever than I think that is a great move for us. Makes us better in two spots (reliever and May in the rotation)
  21. tobi0040
    I just think that most good teams have 2-3 pretty good pitchers. We all seem to accept that Milone won't ever be a #2 starter and fit into that category. So locking him into the rotation over a guy like May just moves us farther away from that. I would be fine with Milone if it wasn't a Milone vs. May thing. Now I know the Royals don't have 2-3 really good starters and won the WS. But they did it with an exceptional defense and pen, things we don't have. They are an outlier. It would be intersting to see what kind of a reliever we could get for Milone. Then compare Milone in rotation and May in pen vs. May in rotation and new reliever in pen.
  22. tobi0040
    I am just glad TR is taking the bullpen seriously this off-season and not looking around in the dumpster for minor league deals and guys in the independent leagues.
  23. tobi0040
    I just wish we would make these decisions through the lens of analyzing a guys floor and ceiling. Milone and May probably have similar floors, but vastly different ceilings. Nolasco is 33 years old. Thru his prime, prior to signing here his ERA+ was under 100. So his ceiling is very low. We hopefully have seen his floor the last two years and it is not pretty. When you run through this exercise it is hard to then say, Milone is a lock for the rotation or let's get another look at Nolasco.
  24. tobi0040
    Cy Young may feed into those on the boards that think May is over-hyped. But he certainly has better odds of being in that elite group than Tommy milone or nolasco. Throw in pelfret from last year
  25. tobi0040
    Edit: 25 IP in 32 appearances.
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