tobi0040

I put KC at about 100%. I was very confident early on, but it seems like pitchers are dropping left and right and the season is young. I think Deduno is an asset, controllable. Can make spot starts and be in the pen. I think we keep him. I don't see Plouffe being moved either. He is cheap and can play 3B, 1B, LF, and RF and pounds lefties. I hope you are wrong about Josh and Kubel, I hope they both play well enough to warrant a prospect. Good blog.

Why on earth is Suzuki batting second? Last year his OBP was .290, career .309. This literally makes no sense at all.If Mauer plays under Gardy for 15 years, it would be interesting to see how many more RBI's he would have at the end of his carreer with a guy that gets on base in front of him. Casilla, Suzuki, etc.http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=340331104&teams=minnesota-twins-vs-chicago-white-sox

He was unranked in 2011 and 2012 and #80 in 2013. I don't think his numbers last year did much to shoot his value up. So I think Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Kohl are all too much as they are much higher end guys. But we have one of the worst SS in the leauge as well as a very deep farm system. So something could likely be worked out. In 2013, BA said 70 fielding and 70 arm. 50 speed, 50 bat, and 35 power. In that example, I am guessing they would pick Berrios/Thorpe/Gonslaves/Gibson. I would probably give up Gibson straight up. Thorpe and Berrios is probably too much. But maybe. If you fill the SS hole here you still have the #5 pick to grab another high end arm.

Apparently the D-Backs are interested in moving Didi Gregorius and have discussed a deal with the Pirates. This would certainly be worth a call. He is a slick fielding 24 year old. He may never hit a ton, but he has a respectable .250 average, .329 OBP, .693 OPS in 380 MLB at bats as a 23 year old (7 HR). His numbers in the minors were between .700 and .750 OPS. I would not give up Buxton, Sano, Meyer, or Kohl. But he would be an upgrade at SS and he would fit in nicely with our young core. ohttp://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/mlb/med/trans/pit.gif According to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, the Pittsburgh Pirates "have had trade talks" with the Arizona Diamondbacks about shortstop Didi Gregorius. He also mentions the Yankees, Mets, Reds and Tigers as other teams that might yet enter the conversation for the presumed loser of the starting shortstop battle in Arizona.

Sounds official from LEN3. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/251441951.html

According to Rhett Bollinger, Gibson is the only one in the running for the 5th starter that will have another start. Could he actually win the job and break camp with the team? Gibson as the 5th starter and Deduno in the bullpen would be ideal for me. I will never fault the Twins for breaking camp with the best possible team. http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=5478&line=422105&spln=1

Good article. You said several things I have thought for years. Gardy's in game substitutions make no sense. That manages in baseball have less impact than the other major sports. The irrational fear of losing the catcher, etc. As it relates to Pinto, I think it highlights Gardy's worst trait. He seems overly stubborn. For some reason he thinks that he can't have a catcher as a bench bat or DH. It is hard to understand how he would think Colabello or Parmelee are better bats than Pinto. So he will likley go with Fryer/Parmelee on the bench, then complain about his bench options later. Seems to me Pinto catching 35-40% of the time, learning from Suzuki daily, and hitting another game or two is the best for the team in the short term and Pinto's development.

I agree I think they got worse, but also that they are the best team in this division still. Losing Fister hurts. I know they like the rookie, but Fister had a 3.50 ERA over 370 IP the last two years. I think Price for Kinsler hurts them this year, but it was a great move for them down the road. I think they also have risk to the downside for Verlander and Scherzer as well. Max had a 2.90 ERA last year. If he is 50-80 basis points one way of that it will likely be 3.40 to 3.70 versus 2.10 to 2.40. I think Verlander could be wearing down too. He has pitched 1,171 innings in the last five years.

I wrote a similar blog awhile back. My take is in the short term Mauer would probably be better than Sano, Arcia, and Willingham at their respective positions. Long term if Sano sticks at 3B we could put Mauer in LF. Arcia in RF is he sticks or DH/1B if he doesn't. Flip Hicks for a pitcher or SS. And sign a good DH/1B in the mold of Cruz. I am hoping that we have Mauer at 1B because we want Sano and Arcia to stay where they are and we need time to evaluate. And we have Willingham in LF because we want to maximize his trade value. Long term, I agree Mauer's athleticism and arm would be a waste at 1B.

I think many things have to go right for the Twins to contend in 2015. Vegas has us at 71 wins this year and at the time that number came out, they were probably expecting Sano and Meyer in June. Don't get me wrong, I think the team will be .500 or slightly above. It will certainly be exciting. 2014 - Plouffe/Sano each half the year at 3B. Meyer over KC for half the year. Hicks should get most the reps in CF. I know Sano won't play next year but for arguments sake when the 71 wins was established. 2015 - Sano a full year at 3B (over Sano/Plouffe), Meyer a full year at SP over (Meyer/KC), Buxton a full year over Hicks. Pinto should see more time at C. Maybe we add another free agent somewhere. But I don't see an additional 20 WAR from 2015, especially with Sano and Buxton basically being rookies. Arcia had what could be considered a very solid half the year as a rookie and his offensive WAR was 1 in 100 games. Plouffe and KC were at 3.6 WAR in 2013. The point of the blog was, in 2011 you have a 63 win team that is about to lose most of the key players to free agency. Your key prospects are a guy that projected as a #2 or #3 starter (Gibson), a guy that projected as an above average CF but not a star (Hicks), and an exciting international player that was 16-17 year old (Sano). They didn't trade any veterans away for prospects. They went two years without signing a single player in free agency who would have been with the team when they were good again. They didn't sign a single international player in the mold of Puig or Cespedes that could help them in the near future. And they didn't trade any young prospects for current MLB players or players knocking on the door (not advocating that we should have traded Sano or Buxton for lesser, MLB talent) The draft and wait strategy did not seem appropriate for a team with the assets we had and I think this strategy is why the turnaround will take 4-5 years. It is a bit of a shame given how this state has built that stadium and how good the fans have been. How many people have paid $30 a seat and $8 per beer to watch this team play.

For years, the Twins were a money ball team that had a very good track record. Payroll fluctuated in the $50-60M range, yet the team made the playoffs in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2010. That was about the ceiling, as the team made the second round just once in the six appearances. The villain that kept this team from advancing was always the metrodome. If the Twins had a stadium, payroll could go up and we could compete and make a serious run. Or so the through process went. Target Field opened in 2010 and the Twins increased payroll to $98M payroll (from $65M in 2009). The team made the playoffs and boosted payroll to $113M in 2011. It was time for a run. In 2011, the team totally flopped, going 63-99. Many things went wrong. Joe Mauer only played 82 games and was replaced by Drew Butera, who finished with a .449 OPS in 250 plate appearances (not a typo). Justin Morneau played in only 69 games. Liriano and Duensing has ERA’s north of 5.00. By any measure, it was a disaster year for the Twins. Nobody I know was at the table, but after the season the story goes that Bill Smith wanted to re-sign all the veterans and make another run, ownership was not interested. I can’t blame them, why spend $115M on a 63 win team? Why would 2012 have been any different? He was fired and Terry Ryan was brought back. I was more than giddy that Terry was back. Terry Ryan with an bigger checkbook seemed very appealing. Rebuilding and Team Direction I believe the Twins were caught in no man’s land. We let a slew of veterans go for nothing (or draft picks) and had a relatively weak farm system. This set up two additional 90+ loss seasons. Here we are, year three in what has to be described as a rebuilding effort. Las Vegas odds have the Twins winning 71 games, just a five game improvement over last year. Progress has been painfully slow. Outside of signing Miguel Sano, the Twins have boosted their farm system primarily through drafting #2 (Buxton) and #4 (Stewart), which is simply a function of having a bad record. The approach over the first two years has basically been wait and see. In 2011, the Twins only had four prospects in baseball America’s top 100 (Gibson 34, Hicks 45, Sano 60, and Benson 100). Why was wait and see the right approach for this situation? Let’s see what we have in Scott Diamond, Chris Parmelee, Vance Worley, Plouffe, etc. After a historically bad pitching staff in 2013, the Twins spent $85M on Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and Mike Pelfrey. The approach for the lineup appears has not changed. Of the 25 guys who will break camp with the Twins, how many are likely to be on a 2016 team? Ricky Nolasco, Joe Mauer, Phil Hughes, Glen Perkins, Brian Dozier, and a few bullpen guys. You would expect Meyer and Buxton to be up at some point this year and Sano next year. Other guys are likely to push their way through, like Gibson, Hicks, and potentially Trevor May. But is this all we have to show after 2-3 rebuilding years? Five locks, 2-3 more over the next year, and a few maybe’s? Personally, I think the Twins were way to slow to address their roster. Had we signed a pitcher or two as good or better than Ricky Nolasco in 2012, this team would be in a much better position. And why has the team done nothing to address a lineup that was 13th in the AL in 2013? Why are we watching Suzuki, Fryer, Florimon, Escobar, Pressley, Pelfrey, Correia, Mastroanni, Parmelee, Collabello, and Worley? I understand why the Twins would have not have wanted to sign a 3B or CF, but why have we not addressed SS, C, or DH? We have not had a top prospect at any one of these positions. Future Payroll The Twins were very active early on this offseason, signing Nolasco and Hughes. I was pretty excited. But that was about it. The only other MLB signings were Mike Pelfrey and Kurt Suzuki, which were less than exciting. Payroll should be about $82M this year. However, base payroll will fall to $70M in 2015 (assuming Correia and Willingham leave). Three rookies are close locks to lock down roster spots (Sano, Buxton, and Meyer). Two more, Arcia and Pinto are odds on favorites. It is a good bet at least 2-3 more will push their way through from the group of (Gibson, May, Rosario, and Santana). Translation, this team should have a payroll in about this range for the next few years. Stadiums and Fulfilling Promises The Twins usually cite 52% of revenue as a guide-post for payroll, as a number they won’t exceed. At under 40% of revenues in 2014 and the near future, are the Twins holding up their end of the bargain? Roughly $350M of the $550M stadium was paid for by the tax payers. The stadium has increased the value of the team by almost $300M, which is over $100M more than the Twins contributed (note the Forbes value was $580M prior to the cable deal, which pushed the value of the Twins to $700M). So it would be hard to argue that the stadium hasn’t been a transfer of wealth from the tax payer to the Pohlad’s. They get $300M and I get the right to spend $100 dollars once a year to bring my family to a game. Honestly, I would not care if I felt like the ownership group was doing everything they could, within reason to turn this team around and compete. But in year three, to see our DH role filled by a guy that will be 32 in May, coming off a terrible year, and signed on a minor league deal as well as a the short stop battle will be between a AA player (Florimon) and a 34 year old player that has been hurt and out of the league, also on a minor league contract? That is a tough pill to swallow. Well where does that leave someone like me? Like the quote in the movie Brokeback Mountain, I wish I knew how to quit you. But I can’t. I have been sold on the farm system and the hope of the future. I do vote with my feet to an extent. If we had an ownership group that wanted to break even each year and ratched up payroll to $115-$120M and field a more competitive team each year, I would probably be a 10 game a year guy. In the meantime, another year of I hope Corriea, Willingham, and Pelfrey start out hot so we can trade them and build for the future! Is it me, or is this getting a little old? http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/ https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/

When I first heard that Mauer was moved to 1st, I was thrilled. Then I started to wonder, why first base? We have Arcia and Willingham in the corners. Mauer seems to be a better athlete and certainly has a better arm than both. Sano is at 3B and has been described as a project there. I can't imagine him being a better athlete than Mauer, even at 30. I hear Sano has a good arm, but I am giving Mauer the nod there as well. I can see Mauer playing 1B when he is 35, but he is 30 years old. The only thing that makes sense to me is 1B being a temporary position. We want Arcia and Sano to stick where we have them today and we want Willingham to audition in LF so we can potentially trade him to the NL. It seems like the best place, both offensively and defensively for Mauer would be one of those three places. Is it just a matter of time before he is moved again?

No prospect is a sure thing, but I don't see a situation where Buxton is not an 8-10 year MLB player. Top prospects from a few years back, like Marte the 3B for the Red Sox/Indians totally flopped and was out of baseball. Buxton's speed and arm will not dissapear barring some freak injuries. So you should get plus range/arm defensively out of him and the ability to steal 40 SB. That should be a given and if for some reason he hits .260-.270 with no power he should still be our starting CF. I don't think that is a likely situation, but the intriguing thing about Buxton and Sano maybe that they are so talented their floor would still be an average to valuabling MLB player.