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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I can't disagree that is a risk. Some minor injury to his arm, shoulder, knee, whatever is now an excuse to hold him back until next years deadline. Is it really a shoe in that he makes the team in April? Pelfrey will be back and he really battles his tail off, a real veteran out there....
  2. tobi0040
    Just because he is a good pitcher doesn't mean he would not beneift from a fall audition. He should make the 2015 team either way, but don't we wan't Meyer to be the best pitcher he could be and keep improving? it seems like that should be a priority, over evaluating our 38th, 39th, or 40th person on our 40 man next year or figuring out right now who has the inside track on the #5 starter role next year or who will be 1st or 2nd in line next year. These are not decisions that impact the long term health of the organization. Our handling of Meyer could.
  3. tobi0040
    The point was the difference between 4.4 BB per 9 and 3.5 BB per 9 (where we would not be having this conversation), is about 1-1.2 walks every other start. As has been outlined before, Meyer's pitches per inning are about on par with Pino, Darnell, and May. Should we really be worried about taxing the bullpen with our record? Should that be altering any decisions?
  4. tobi0040
    Looks like a duck, talks like a duck, walks like a duck......it is a duck, Spot on.
  5. tobi0040
    Sorry to pile on. But RJ's numbers at AAA in his last full season were 8.81 K per 9 and 5.72 BB per 9. Both quite a bit worse than Meyer's. His BB per 9 numbers over the first four seasons were much worse than Meyer's are likely to be (4.9 to 6.8 per year). RJ's K numbers were 7.95 year 1, then just a tad over 10 the next 3. Yes, it is a comp to a HOF guy. But Meyer's numbers now are better and I would argue over the next four years his K numbers project to be about the same, with much better BB numbers......and RJ still put up a sub 4.00 ERA because he has excellent stuff, like Meyer. I am not saying that Meyer will have the same career as RJ, but it puts to ease some concerns I would typically have
  6. tobi0040
    it isn't clear to me how 90 pitches a game over the last month and over the next month at AAA is better for his arm than in the big leagues. I don't think anyone has suggested the Twins go over their innings limit for Meyer, just that those should be up here to further his development.
  7. tobi0040
    Logic would say that he will allow more hits, HR's, etc. against MLB hitters. Any pitcher would. I believe all of these metrics in the big leauges will trump every pitcher we have brougt up since Liriano in 2006. So a career 3.7 BB per 9 in the minors and the 4.4 this year is not enough to hold him back. Heck, I would argue that if we were concerned about the BB rate, bringing him up for 5 starts and proving to him that he needs to get his BB's under control is the best thing for his development.
  8. tobi0040
    In addition to a very low HR rate. If he had 3.5 BB per 9 and 8 H per 9 instead of 4.5 BB per 9 and 7 H per 9....somehow he would be ready. Note that the BB is one base and the additional hit maybe 2, 3, or 4. The point is that with the typical Twins pitcher, walk rates are very important. Alex Meyer is not the typical Twins pitcher.
  9. tobi0040
    Outside of a social anxiety disorder, triggered by large stadiums....what type of information could the Twins have that is not financial? I am really struggling to even speculate what they could be. The "he is only five starts from being done" thing doesn't make any sense to me. He is only five starts away because they have delayed him this far and even if he is only five away, wouldn't value exist in having him put on the jersey, walk to the mound and get those 5 starts up here?
  10. tobi0040
    I am already pissed because this reeks of a financial decision over a development decision. He can pitch 5-6 IP, 1-2 ER, and 6-9 k's at AAA until the cows come home.
  11. tobi0040
    Yes, Yes, and Yes. None of these theories make any sense, so the Twins have a different motive. They are blowing a great opportunity to get the nerves out and get some experience under the belt of a guy that will undoubtedly be pitching in game 1 of the next Twins playoff game.
  12. tobi0040
    Many different theories have existed. The super 2, the walks, the pitch count, "inconsistency", the terrible three starts where he gave up a total of 7 ER, none have ever made sense to me other than maybe super 2 (which has passed). Most have really been people making excuses for the organization. What has been constant? Alex Meyer is the most talented pitcher within the entire system, IMO. Clearly the most talented of the pitchers at AAA or that have recently been moved up. His ERA, k numbers, and GB rates show that he has had nothing to prove in AAA and his stuff projects the best at the MLB level. Something has never smelled right about the whole thing, I have concluded that the Twins want to bring up all of their key guys together. Meyer, May, Sano, Buxton, Vargas, and maybe Rosario. They believe this will be good PR as well as allow them to keep them under control at the same time. That is the motivation and it is really pathetic.
  13. tobi0040
    Great points about Randy Johnson. The M's were rewarded by bringing him up and the command got better in time. I also think the Twins as an organization stress walks too much. When you have an organization with guys like Liam Hendricks and Kevin C., Mike Pelfrey without good stuff. Walks are extremely important. These guys are going to give up a ton of hits, not strike guys out, and give up HR's. Alex Meyer's worst BA against is this years .225, it has varied between .206 and .225. His HR rate this year is .64 per 9 innings, by far the worst of his minor league career. When you have a guy that is going to get out 77.5% of hitters, going to strike out 26-27% of them, and will give up an HR about every other start.....a "really high" BB per 9 of 4 or 4.5 amounts to one additional BB about every other start over an OK 3 per 9. This is really a silly reason to keep him down. To piggy back off the RJ Analysis in his first four MLB seasons. Here is RJ's BB/9 numbers that were cited, I added his ERA that year to the right. I will take that in the Twins rotation. BB/9 ERA 5.38 - 4.40 4.92 - 3.65 6.79 - 3.98 6.16 - 3.77
  14. tobi0040
    Yeah. Too bad for May last night as well. He gave up 4 ER in 6 IP. Now he needs 7-8 consecutive shut outs before being promoted.
  15. tobi0040
    It seems incredibly simple to me. In addition to probably being less talented than some of the young guys, Burton, like Guerrier is not going to be with this club when we are good again. So replace him for someone who might. I remember the thread before the year that talked about expectations for the year and what success would look like. If my memory serves me correct, I remember everyone hoping we would be 3-5 games better, but nobody really cared. What seemed unanimous at the time was the franchise moving foward by the development of 8-10 guys (Arcia, Hicks, Gibson, Meyer, May, some ot the pen guys, Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Kohl). A "successful year" would be those guys getting to the big leagues or taking strides in getting there. Given those conversations, I am surprised that a good chunk of the site is OK with the Twins lack of promotions. Yohan Pino, Darnell, Johnson, etc. 3 good young relievers still in AAA.
  16. tobi0040
    It is kind of funny how an organization with such a bad major league team can have such high standards for promotions. May, Meyer, Achter, Guerra, and Tonkin have to really be wondering what is going on.
  17. tobi0040
    Are you 100% sure you want this on the Twins? He needs more time. Last 7 starts: 5.2 IP, 2 ER 5 IP, 1 ER 6 IP, 0 ER 6 IP, 1 ER 6 IP, 2 ER 6 IP, 1 ER 6 IP, 1 ER If I was him, I would be irate.
  18. tobi0040
    The Twins should not be concerned about fielding the best CF now at the expense of the future. I would rather lose 1-2 additional games this year to potentially win 1 or 2 more a year in the future. This franchise lacks a long term vision. Nothing is more important on a team that is in the bottom 3rd of the league. Not having a vision impacts your ability to get out of this group.
  19. tobi0040
    Meyer is now at a 3.05 ERA, 106 IP, 10.2 K per 9. WHIP is 1.28. If his next start is not with the Twins, I don't think we see him this year. He won't be pitching into September. I find it mind boggling that we have used 93 IP on Pino, Johnson, Darnell, and Pelfrey. None of these guys will serve in any capacity other than a AAA filler for the Twins. This was a perfect time to break him in, get the nerves out, and see how his stuff matches up and adjust.
  20. tobi0040
    Way less than I thought and I am happy. One less hole to fill next off-season. Likely not going to spend any money on the rotation, catcher, CF, 3B, 2B, or 1B. So a nice upgrade in the OF/DH or two.
  21. tobi0040
    Hearing Austin Jackson and Smyly...plus
  22. tobi0040
    Dear IT team, Looks like I was dead wrong here, DELETE DELETE DELETE
  23. tobi0040
    I just don't see it. Their system had Castellanos and Ray in the top 100 last year. Neither is exactly on par with the Wil Myers/Odorizzi package. Castellanos, Smyly, and something? I think the Rays do better in the offseason
  24. tobi0040
    Yeah...in the ballpark with guys making $10-11.75M a year in that stat as well. Milone has a career ERA + of 100. Arroyo 103 ERA+ (11.75M) Feldman 95 ERA + (10M) Nolasco 91 ERA + (11M) Seems like we basically went out and got a guy that may put up the same numbers on a 3 year, 5-8M deal (3 years of arbitration until he is a FA in 2018) You have a rotation of Nolasco, Gibson, Meyer, and Hughes plus a rookie (Milone or May). The rotation will be at about $26M with Pelfrey sitting in the minors somewhere. Looks like some money will be left over for the lineup.
  25. tobi0040
    With Lester and Lackey going this early, I think the folks at ESPN/Fox need to act like Price might get moved today to keep people engaged. I doubt he moves.
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