tobi0040

Very funny, good times.

So Pino was not good enough to start in the rotation at Rochester. Every team has had a chance to claim this guy multiple times. He is closer to 31 than he is 30 and has a career ERA in the minors of 3.77. After 50 some innings of ridiculous LOB % and BABIP, he jumps over Meyer to the big show. Thanks jokin. Appreciate you pointing that out!

I agree wholeheartedly. I work for a company that fired our CEO a few months ago. He was kind of a stubborn guy that put the kibosh on major initiatives for years. As a result we were somewhat behind our competitorsin technolgoy, innovation, etc.. With him gone, we have re-explored many of the things and are moving forward to a better tomorrow. I see parallels between the company and the Twins. I think Gardy is stuck in his ways and the best way for the Twins to catch up is with a new manager and a fresh look. I am thinking saber metrics, third catchers, how we overvalue defense, the need for veterans around, etc.

Absolutely hilarious. Here are a few more. BTO- Battling Tail Off GAI - Getting After It RSI - Really spinning it Example, Mike Pelfrey may have had a 6.00+ ERA over the last two years, but his BTO is off the chart. You need vets like that to really battle.

I am happy with how Terry has stacked the minor league system and happy that in August we are clearing room for guys. Key guys seem to be promoted in the minors as well. But it is hard for me to say they are making all the right moves because I keep coming back to Alex Meyer. No player may play a bigger role in turning around this franchise than Meyer. I say that with respect for Buxton and Sano. However, we have had one of the worst starting pitching ERA in the league for three years running and it will take a dramatic leap in that category to really improve the club. Meyer will play a huge role in that. Our AAA rotation at the beginning of the year was Meyer, May, Pino, Darnell, and Johnson I believe. The only one that has not yet been up is Meyer. With a rotation of May, Gibson, Nolasco, Hughes, and Milone the rest of the way Meyer won't be up unless someone gets injured. The only reasons I can come up with why Meyer has not been up is we want to evaluate the Darnells, Johnsons, etc. to see who we should keep as AAA depth next year. Or as the article alluded to, we are hoping to flip one of them. We could also sell them to an Asian team. Or we don't want to make a spot on the 40 man. These are all penny wise and pound foolish reasons, IMO.

Development more than evaluation, IMO. Also I think we stress defense too much. Pinto, Polanco and Santana at SS for example.

I really, really hope Meyer is in the rotation out of camp. No way Peflrey outperforms him in ST. We have seen too many scholarships handed out. It is these types of decisions that keep us from winning 74+ games next year as well

I could be convinced regarding Berrios. I tend to be more conservative with predictions. So the distinction between Meyer and Berrios is the track record, Meyer has 3+ years of great numberse. Berrios has one, albeit maybe better than any year Meyer has had. The fact that he has done it at such a young age is very encouraging too. I think Arcia will click too. think if he can put up OK numbers against lefties he will be hitting 4, 5, or 6 for us for a long time, we will find a place for him. He is young too. I wasn't thinking TJ was going to determine whether or not Sano could stick at 3B. He has had a ton of errors, and keeps growing. I am very high on him regardless of where he ends up. I agree with you regarding Polanco, it is just a matter of if the Twins accept less than a gold standard defensively at short. Historically I believe they would rather have a guy that can get to every ball versus a guy that will let 15 go through, but have another 45 hits. Doesn't make sense to me but it is what it is.

I still don't see how he isn't with the Twins until then. I guess part of that is I don't see him as a .250 hitter with 2 HR a year or whatever. If he comes back to any level of normalcy, it is hard to see how he isn't at .280/.360 type guy at least. He won't be replaced at that point. I also don't think he would be allowed to re-work his contract in order to take less money. It is my understanding that was not allowed in MLB.

Very interesting. I think people do expect Mauer to be something else, but you are right. He is a cheese pizza. Hopefully he does come back to his old .320, 10-12 HR, 80-100 BB type of player. That isn't a bad pizza.

The 2016 Minnesota Twins Some of the young players have emerged and a few others are close or knocking on the door, I thought it would be a good opportunity to look at the 2016 roster (and get a free pizza). Position Players - Near Locks: 1B – Joe Mauer – Joe Mauer will be under contract thru 2018 and it is really hard to see a scenario where Joe is not with the team. His contract is next to immovable, even if he was having a typical .330, 10 HR pace. He, of course is not. I have never been a huge proponent of playing a guy to play for someone else and the Twins aren’t going to do that. My person view is that the Twins view Joe's contract as part player contract, part marketing expense anyway 3B/DH Miguel Sano – Sano should break through in June of next year and be a fixture on this team. Even at the low end of his range, .250 and 30 HR, some BB’s, he will hit his way into the lineup. The best case is 3B, otherwise he could DH or play corner OF as a long shot. CF – Byron Buxton – I was arguing with my friend about the likelihood of Buxton flopping. He is in the camp of prospects fail and some truth exists to that theory. My only caveat was barring a serious injury, this kid will be the CF for the Twins. That may be as early as spring training next year, but more likely June or August/September of next year. My point was that Buxton is going to provide plus defense (both range and arm) in CF and he should be able to steal 35-40 bases even if for some reason he struggles to get on base. Given that, even if he hits .250 with 10 HR, he should provide value from that position. I know his ceiling is much, much higher than that all around. I think Carl Crawford offensively (.300, 15 HR, 60 SB) with much better defense. C – Kurt Suzuki, I felt I had to put Kurt on here because he is still under contract. Whether he is starting or splitting we will find out 2B – Brian Dozier – With talent coming up at the position, the Twins could trade him and he would provide a ton of value. I would just rather have a 20-20 type 2B that plays good defense at a reasonable price on our team Position Players – In the mix Arcia – He is young and has potential with his bat. The issues thus far are left handed pitching and where he will play. He could DH obviously, but he may run into competition there. His odds are better if his defense in the OF improves. Rosario – Rosario has hit too well to not be in the mix. But the issue for him is position. My understanding is the Twins appreciate that he tried to become a 2B, but it didn’t really work out. He is in the mix for a corner OF spot, but will need to hit enough to justify the position. Hicks – Hicks is in a similar position as Rosario. He isn’t going to play CF and he may struggle to hit enough for a corner OF spot. He looks like he could get on base a ton if he could only hit about .260. I think Rosario and Hicks are in competition for one corner OF spot. We likely can’t have two softer hitting/good defensive players in the corners. Both should be able to stick as a 4th OF. Vargas – He is in the mix and having a great year. I just can’t put him as a lock given he may find a crowd at the DH spot and he may be the least flexible defensively. Prior to this year, he didn’t look like he was going to hit enough for the DH role Plouffe – In some ways, Plouffe’s future is dependent on whether or not Sano can stick at 3B. I think the Twins will have a tough time finding a better 3B if Sano can’t stick. If Sano does stick at 3B, I think Plouffe would be a great bench guy as he can play multiple positions and hit lefties very well. It would just be a matter of whether or not he would provide more value via trade Santana – He has hit well, but it is hard to see him sticking in the outfield on this team and it is hard to know how the Twins feel about him at short stop Polanco – I also don’t know how the Twins feel about him at SS. His best path would be if Dozier gets traded. Unlikely Pinto – I just don’t think the Twins will ever give this kid a chance at catcher and I don’t think he will hit enough for DH Gordon – I don’t believe he will be quite ready in 2016 Starting Pitchers – Near Locks Hughes – I really loved the signing and I think even if this year is on the high end, he will be a valuable member of this rotation Gibson – Kyle has taken a step forward this year. It would be nice to see some more K’s and I think those will come in time given his minor league numbers Meyer – Barring injury, this kid is going to be special Nolasco – Still under contract and hopefully he rebounds. I don’t think we would be able to move that contract if he doesn’t and I doubt we will have five pitchers that are better. Especially if you think at least one of the “locks” is hurt. Starters – In the mix Berrios – I did not put him in the lock category. I wanted to, but I just hope this year was not an aberration May – I am higher on May than most people are, but his numbers the previous two years were not great at AA. He has the stuff, control maybe an issue but I think he will likely figure it out. If he fails as a starter, I think he could excel as a reliever a la Perkins. My guess is he would throw upper 90’s and he has a good breaking ball Milone – He has a good track record and career ERA across three seasons. So he has to be in the mix regardless of how fast he throws Unlikely Kohl Stewart – I don’t think Kohl will be quite ready, although I am high on him Thorpe – Probably a tad early, he may break through in 2016 Relievers Perkins – Still under contract, hopefully still healthy and getting batters out Burdi – I think this kid is going to be special. Granted he was probably in the wrong league and he was recently promoted, but he had 25 k’s in 12 IP at Cedar Rapids Relievers – In the mix Frankly, too many to name and they could come from our minors, failed starters, or free agency. It is hard to speculate 2 years out. Tonkin, Guerra, and Achter should for sure be in the mix though When putting this list together, one thing that I find interesting is payroll. The only players at this point that will not be in their rookie deals are Mauer ($23M), Dozier (say $6M), Perkins ($5.5M), Suzuki ($6M), Nolasco ($11M) and Hughes ($8M). So you have $59M plus a bunch of rookies. Pretty interesting and room to supplement through free agency and lock up players early.

I agree, Kevin was what we could have hoped for. It is just that we needed better and he is what we signed. Not his fault.

Last 15 starts: Meyer 76.2 IP, 2.47 ERA, 86 K's. 6.6 H per 9. 4.5 BB per 9. 10.2 K per 9. May 86 IP, 2.72 ERA, 79 K's, 7 H per 9, 3.66 BB per 9. 8.27 K per 9. One metric favors May, by a total fo 7 BB's (in more innings). ERA, K's, and hits favor Meyer. All in WHIP is basically a wash, May 1.18 versus Meyer 1.23. So I don't buy they decided in Meyer and switched to May based on performance. Just like the Pino arguments that were made....it is silly to look at one year and throw out their entire MILB numbers: Meyer 2.96 ERA, 7.1 H per 9, 10.3 K per 9, 3.7 BB per 9 Pino 3.77 ERA, 8.6 H per 9, 8.1 K per 9, 2.2 BB per 9 May 3.92 ERA, 7.7 H per 9, 4.4 BB per 9, 10.5 K per 9

Here are Meyers numbers in his last 15 starts: 76.2 IP, 2.47 ERA, 86 K's. 6.6 H per 9. 4.5 BB per 9. When will this madness stop about he hasn't pitched well enough or pitched his way out of contention? Pitch counts? If the Twins have access to a calculator they could have figured out how many pitches he would have thrown by 8/1. If the Twins had an agreement that he was coming up 8/1, he would be up.

Just a refresher on his stuff. I found a FB in the 93-94 range with heavy sink. A hammer curve and a straight change. From MLB: Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curve: 50 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50 The Twins loved May's arm strength when they got him from the Phillies in the Ben Revere deal. They're hopeful a strong Arizona Fall League showing can help him reach a ceiling that has previously been elusive. May has always been more of a thrower than a pitcher, but the raw stuff is still there. He has an above-average fastball, and while he can't command his breaking stuff, he does get swings and misses on it when ahead in the count. May's changeup looked better than it ever has in Arizona. Add in improved mound presence, and the AFL version of May looked like the starter everyone has envisioned. The Twins don't have a ton of starting pitching in the upper levels, so they're going to try to hold onto May for as long as they can, knowing he has the power arsenal to succeed in the bullpen if necessary.

BTW, where is Spirit of Vodka Dave? He has been talking for 6 weeks that it was a done deal, with inside source that Meyer would be up as soon as the calender turned to 8/1. Saturday will be Meyer's 2nd start in August at AAA.

I think Carl Crawford in his hay day when I think of Buxton. .280-.300, 15 HR, 60 SB, 10-15 triples. The difference is defense, Buxton plays a more important position and has a much, much, much better arm.

"This is not an attempt to open up old wounds from the past or berate the organization for a decision that probably still haunts them to this day, but the comparison is uncanny" Love it and I agree. This one has been talked about at length.

Yeah, but both Pinto and Morales saw some reps with the big club, so I figured they passed all the tests. Definitely tough work though and it is a good thing to have a lot of them.

I have a hard time getting overly excited about catching prospects. Seems like we always have a few that can hit and have decent reports defensively, then at some point the Twins lose all trust in them. The two that come to mind are Pinto and Jose Morales. The same could be said about short stops.

What if Meyer has some minor injury next March or April? They get to baby him for a month or two, then rehab, etc.

I hope you are right, but I just can't discount the fact that this could all be about dollar bills.

Well, maybe he would not throw the change in a 3 ball count. But maybe the change has led to 2-3 additional 3 ball counts per start? Even 1-2 additional 3 ball counts could lead to an additional walk every other outing and the increase from 3.5 to 4.4 BB's every 9 innings.

Logically, it would seem plausable that he would struggle to locate a pitch he started mid-season at age 24-25. Certainly more so than his other pitches he has thrown his whole life. If pitch fx data existed for minor leaguers that may be telling. I am not sure it is available though. I am thinking percentage strikes/balls by pitch type.

I don't know of a single franchise that would still have Meyer down in AAA. Some would maybe start him in the pen, others in the rotation. Some would have brought him up before the super 2 deadline because they don't care. Most would have brought him up right after. But I truly believe every other franchise would conclude he has nothing to prove and they would want to futher his development by testing him up here.