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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Yeah, they have been bad for awhile. But they had the same record with a collecton of young players that were gaining experience. We had a series of them blocked or playing somewhere in the diamond that they will never play again. Most have their minor league system rated better as well. The comparison was not really the point I was trying to make though and probably took away from it. The Twins never acknowledged a rebuild and made very non-rebuild type moves. Everything the last 3-4 years should have been in the lens of a rebuild. Had they done that, I think we would be better now.
  2. tobi0040
    I think we need to distinguish between two different things. When did the rebuild happen and when should the rebuild have happened? As noted, the Twins had the 4th oldest pitching staff in baseball this year, year four of 90+ losses a year. Signing guys like Pelfrey and Correia on one and two year deals, Jared Burtons, and taking low ceiling fliers on Bartlett and Kubel and simply not rebuild type moves. Even all the free agents we have let go, none were moved for a meaningful piece. Or how about playing young players that need work defensively out of position? I think the Twins never fully embraced a rebuild because of the timing with the stadium. The Houston Astros embraced a rebuild and are in a better place as a result. The Twins did not want the payroll to go too low and tick people off. Instead they chose to not be honest to themselves and the fans and acknowledge the reality of the situation. I think this dip has lasted longer than neccesary as a result. The other harsh reality is, had they acknowledged a rebuild maybe their manager would not have been fired.
  3. tobi0040
    I think you could get Kemp for nothing and have the Dodgers pick up $5M a year. So it would be like going out and signing Kemp to a 6 year deal at $15M a year. It would be an option for me, but something tells me we can find a better alternative to uprade LF (and I don't think the Twins want to go out 6 years on a guy that age, injury concerns, etc.) In the last few years, the White Sox have found Carlos Quentin and Eaton and did not give up much either time.
  4. tobi0040
    This could be just a statement thing and the next manager could have conditions on his hiring, like you need to hire Molitor and Bruno.
  5. tobi0040
    I could list off at least four reasons why we have no choice but needing to add Lester or Scherzer....but it will still be a huge shock to me if we actually did it. Maybe this is just a tad of optimism on my side, but maybe the days of having a huge gap between what the Twins should do and what they will do is closing?
  6. tobi0040
    This is how this would appear from my empoyer: Terry Ryan is pleased to announce the following: After a long and successful career, Ron Gardenhire has announced his retirement, effective immediately. We thank Ron for his many contributions. In retirement, Ron will enjoy spending time with his family, traveling, and fishing.
  7. tobi0040
    I don't want to give up prospects that are top 5-10 for a rental either (even a two year rental). The Twins have money to spend right now. So giving up Buxton or Sano and then having to pay a guy $150M is silly given you have three top level guys on the market this year. Sign one of them without giving up anything. I do like the Royals approach and acknowledgement that they needed more than prospects....just don't like exactly the way they went about this move.
  8. tobi0040
    Yes, quantity over quality. Every GM knows that.
  9. tobi0040
    Depth and redundancy are different things. In the case of Pinto, my belief is that the Twins have no intention of using him as a catcher and he looks to be the 3rd best hitter out of these three. Also behind Sano and Arcia if they can't hold down 3B and LF.
  10. tobi0040
    kemp is tempting in a swap with Ricky, if we get that salary down to about $15M a year. Then it is close to neutral given that we lose 11M and add 15M and a rooke starter (Meyer) instead of buying a LF. His deal goes out 5 years though. Kemp's OPS the last 5 years: .760, .986, .906, .723, and .852 I don't see this happening, so hopefully Terry is looking for a guy with average to above average defense with at least an adequate bat (.280 with 15-20 HR). I would also target a guy that hits righties very well. Plouffe may get bumped off 3B sometime between April and June. He has always hit lefties very well. We could platoon in LF and not have to give up the farm.
  11. tobi0040
    I don't know him. But from what I can tell. Making a speech or sitting on tv for half an inning tells me he would rather be anywhere else in the world. The payroll tells me he is not going broke trying to field a great team If you take a step back, it is the self made guys like cuban, jerry jones, and daniel snyder that seek out and buy a team to inflate their ego's and they are extremely competitive. You can tell when they lose they are dying inside. They love being the face of the team. The pohlads inherited 2 billion dollars and a baseball team. Very different dynamic
  12. tobi0040
    The only reason I can pinpoint keeping the team is some vow he made to his Dad. He does not like the limelight, is not competitive, does not need to feed his ego, and the value of the team has risen a ton. Please sell.
  13. tobi0040
    Max turned down 6-144 before the season started (24 a year). He has been healthy and dominant again. No reason to think that offer would not still be there, with bidding driving it higher.
  14. tobi0040
    SD. I think if we had clarity that Sano was a DH and Vargas will always rake here. I would move Sano for cole in a second. But not until we have clarity.
  15. tobi0040
    But you have to give up prospects too. Hamels is a very good pitcher that would require Sano or Buxton. I would rather have Scherzer and 6 @25 a year, and Buxton than Hamels for 4 @ 25 without Buxton. Basically choosing to give up Buxton and not have Max two more years.
  16. tobi0040
    Out-earning pay and meeting the intent of a contract clause are two very different things. If we had an ounce of foresight, this $500K would be a goodwill investment for Hughes and others. I think even if we are the highest bidder, certain free agents would not sign here because they would be worried the team will not make the investments in other players. This could be a small step in improving that perception.
  17. tobi0040
    I think that is an overly simplistic view. He did pitch well enough to earn it. If Hughes was like Suzuki and pissed and moaned about playing time all year he would have stayed in for a few batters here and there and got to 210. If it was not for rain, which is out of his control, he would have earned it. If you look at the intent of the clause, he exceeded the threshold in my opinion about what he gave the Twins this year. And if you take a step back, you want to keep your employees happy. Especially one that you will likely engage in long term discussions with, potentially as early as this offseason.
  18. tobi0040
    I kind of changed my opinion a tad too, but in the other direction. I thought it would be a nice gusture but the charity would be okay. I think they should pay the guy. The intent of putting that clause into the contract was to reward him for staying healthy and pitching effective enough throughout the course of the season that he gets to 210 innings. Given 34 starts, that is not missing a start and averaging 6.1 innings per start. By all accounts, he has exceeded what we were hoping and he had a great year. Not only did he give us innings, but he gave us effective innings. I think the fact that he is not causing a big deal about it makes me want to give him the bonus even more. That is called class and setting an example. If he was making a big deal of it many would call him selfish.
  19. tobi0040
    I really loved the article. The Twins could talk themselves out of a lot of moves by the logic "well firing Gardy is not going to make us a playoff team next year". I liked how you noted that it is going to take many things to right this ship. The only thing I believe would be a bad idea is Buxton breaking camp with the Twins. He was overwhelmed last spring and really didn't play. He probably needs to get in a routine again before the added pressure of the big stage. Regarding Pelfrey, I think it would be a nice symbolic move to cut him. Logic would suggest try him in the pen and I would not be shocked if the Twins broke camp with him in the rotation. But if Terry Ryan wants to say noboy is on scholarship, then cutting a guy that has shown nothing but horrible results and injury for four years in a row would send a message that we are going to break camp next year wth good players. I think it makes sense to keep Ricky and not dump him. This year was an anomoly for him. Moving him would require us to pay him to pitch for someone else next year. My hope is that we have a new piching coach as well next year. If we sign a very good pitcher and Ricky return to the guy we thought we were getting, we are better by two spots in the rotation.
  20. tobi0040
    I think it would be a nice gesture. But I would be okay with the donation I would be okay adding 2 and 26 to his deal. The crazy thing is I think hw would do it
  21. tobi0040
    Viewing cash flow out of their pocket as something that should be a consideration here is silly, IMO. On several fronts. A - the value of the team went up almost $400M B - They are making money on an annual basis every year C- If you buy a bigger house, of course your maintenance costs go up. $15M a year in maintenance on a $500M stadium is 3%. The equivalent of $6,000 a year on a $200K house. They knew this going in and it was still a great deal for them, the numbers were crunched and this made sense and they moved forward. So I don't want to hear complaints about upkeep. D - I assure you revenue went up more than maintenance expenses This is not spin, these are facts.
  22. tobi0040
    The Twins did a good job broadcasting that they paid excess construction costs out of their own pocket. Ths is yet another distortion of reality and spin job. The rough numbers on the stadium was the Twins put up $150M and the tax payer put up $300M. Then the Twins kicked in another $15-$20M and told everyone how great they were. Meanwile, the value of the team went up over $400M+ since the stadium. Example.....If I put a gold deck on my house and get the gold for free. I pay $5K in labor and the value of my house goes up $50K.....should I complain about the $5K I had to pay in labor?
  23. tobi0040
    I think the Twins can either be pro-active and lower prices for next year, or they can wait a month when nobody comes, then cut them. I think it will look much worse if they wait until the season starts.
  24. tobi0040
    I think the stars and moon need to align for this team to be competitive into September next year. I really don't see us trading for a top pitcher and it would cost Sano or Buxton to get one via trade, so I just don't see that either. If I am right, we are basically then bringing back the same players and asking 2-3 rookies to improve the team by 15 games or so.
  25. tobi0040
    I agree that the Pohlads may re-trench and I also believe it may be worse than the Twins think. Scaling back would be yet another slap to the fan base and tax payer, IMO I talked to my friend who is cancelling. He said he has three couples next to him and all four sets have been full season ticket holders since 2010. 2 sets are cancelling and another is scaling back to a half of 20 game pack. He also brought up another negative dynamic. A drastic reduction in season ticket holders will mean fewer tickets being dumped on stub hub for less than face value. So the casual fan, who is also discouraged will have to pay more to see the team play. That is not a good thing. Going to get real ugly.
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