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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    The BA is only telling part of the story. He had 19 HR in 60 games at AAA with an OPS around .920.
  2. tobi0040
    It is March 2012. Coming off a 65 win team. Your ownership group has given you no budget for free agent acqusitions and wants you to rebuild. You have the #2 pick in the upcoming draft. Here are your top minor leaguers, according to BA. The number one and three guys are 19. The #2 guy is wildly overrated. The number 4 guy is coming off a .720 OPS year in high A. #5 is 20. The only real prospect of a pitcher had Tommy John 3 months earlier. 1. Miguel Sano, 3b/ss 2. Joe Benson, of 3. Eddie Rosario, 2b/of 4. Aaron Hicks, of 5. Oswaldo Arcia, of 6. Levi Michael, ss/2b 7. Liam Hendriks, rhp 8. Kyle Gibson, rhp 9. Chris Parmelee, of/1b 10. Brian Dozier, ss/2b What is your plan to get this team to .500 with a realistic chance upon improving that to contention in four years? You even get the benefit of hindsight. I just don't see a path.
  3. tobi0040
    I agree here. The issue with waiting until we have a "need" is that you are comparing a rookie that will likely struggle (Sano) with a guy in his prime at close to peak value (Plouffe).
  4. tobi0040
    I agree about Rosario. If he can get to the .750 OPS range I think he is an asset on this team. Having a natural CF play LF would be a huge defensive improvement. The question will be whether or not he has more value via trade, as CF or 2B would provide more value somewhere else than LF here. I think he has to get reps and produce before we have any clarity.
  5. tobi0040
    I think most are louder about Buxton, giving the nature of his year. But between now and June we will have 30 AZ fall league games and 50 or so minor league games. If he plays like he did in 2013 I think pretty loud.
  6. tobi0040
    Buck went 0-4 with a BB and SB (error as well). Eddie went 2-4 with a SB
  7. tobi0040
    My goal is to be in contention for the world series. I just outlined for you that we could take our current team and sign everyone of the guys you advocated for, payroll would be $30M more than it will ever be, and we are basically a .500 team. So for me, now is not the time to go all in. What we need is cost controlled young players to come up and produce. If two years from now, we have this type of production from these guys a few vets added to the mix and we could easily be a playoff team, especially given where the Tigers will be at payroll and age-wise: Buxton .270, 15 HR, 50 SB, great defense in CF Sano .260, 30 HR, 80 BB Meyer, Berrios, May 180-200 IP each, 3.50-3.80 ERA (Or just two of the three)
  8. tobi0040
    We had an $85M payroll and won 70 games. Here is the relevant data on the guys you listed: Cruz 4.7 WAR $14M Vargas 2.4 WAR $9M Kazmir 1.7 WAR $11M Drew -.3 WAR $10M Ervin 1.2 WAR $14M Napoli 3.2 WAR $16M Terry Ryan could have NOT signed Pelfrey and Nolasco, payroll would have been $68M. Then signed every one of these guys. We would have won 83 games and had a payroll of $142M. Sometimes folding is the right move. Has it been a long frustrating four years? Yes....but we were that far away. As painful as this has been, I would rather have 70 wins with a payroll starting in the 60-70M range, some wiggle room to add and young players playing than an 83-81 team with a payroll at 142M, young guys blocked all over the place, way over our cap and dialing it down.
  9. tobi0040
    MLB.com has them. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/
  10. tobi0040
    I think there is a very good chance the Twins would make that trade. The M's, um....no.
  11. tobi0040
    DrJim, That is exactly what I meant, thank you. A sustainable drive at competing for the playoffs. What that means in Twins speak is you need a young core of players that are cost controlled for several years. Given where this team was in 2011 signing three free agents and bringing payroll up to the max range was not going to get us where we wanted to go. We needed a longer term view that was going to take time.
  12. tobi0040
    Trust me, I get your sense of frustration and urgency. But I think it is too early to conclude he has been a failure. I am going to make two assumptions that are mine based on belief alone, with no way to prove it. 1- Ownership was unwilling to invest in free agents for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and wanted payroll to come down while we rebuild. 2 - Terry was brought in to bring back a sustainable winning team. Given those, the only way Terry could have sped this rebuild up was by drafting college juniors and seniors over high school players. These typically get to the majors quicker but in many cases have lower ceilings. I think we will be served better off in the long run by taking Buxton, Kohl, Berrios, and Gordon over lower ceiling college players.
  13. tobi0040
    I think the Revere and Span trades were savvy and not neccesarily made because we were going to be bad. Terry saw a market where only one good CF was on the market and 3-4 contenders thought they were a CF away. I think those were great moves he deserves credit for. The not high draft picks could add Burdi, Gonslaves, Walker, Rogers, Hicks, Turner, Garver, Swim, Reed, and Murphy. Some talent in there. I think it is ironic that some are saying Ryan does not deserve credit for the Smith guys, others are saying Ryan deserves blame for how bad it got under Smith because Ryan had influence. Both cannot be true.
  14. tobi0040
    I completely agree about Buxton. The risks outweigh the benefits here. The Twins staff said Buxton was over-powered in spring training last year. Then he went and played a total of 31 games at an OPS of .702. Sano has at least had 67 games with some success (.915 OPS) at AA, with 19 HR.
  15. tobi0040
    I just think in this day and age, a believer in applying numbers to the game should be a requirement. Doug's comments were discouraging. I could not support a guy that is only "open" to new ways of thinking. I am guessing Gardy would say he is open too.
  16. tobi0040
    I think it will by Molitor as well. I think one or two future manager types on the bench makes snnse. But I just don't know how they can't bring Brunansky back as the hitting coach. 5th in runs with that offense?
  17. tobi0040
    We will never know the inner workings/politics of it all. Here are my thoughts: Terry Ryan could fire Deron Johnson if he wanted to. In my experience, not many things happen in this world without your boss on board. Whether that be in baseball or corporate america.
  18. tobi0040
    That assumes he has no input. My gut tells me he has to at least approve and does scout them all personally.
  19. tobi0040
    I am a believer in ths meme for a few reasons. Most importantly, I think Terry was brought in to rebuild this team and had a clear mandate to do so internally. He was not given the payroll for any free agent signings. So to criticize the guys like Correia or Pelfrey as major flops seems to be a tad off base. I think he also had to rely on getting innings from AAAA types. While blessed with three draft picks in the top five, these picks are never locks. Buxton, Kohl, and Gordon look like really good picks. Specifically the Buxton pick over the arm we all throught we desparately needed (Appel, Zimmer, or Gausman). In 2012 we also walked away with Berrios, Walker, Melotakis, Rogers, Muren, and Hicks among others. Also signed Thorpe this year. In 2013 we stole Gonslaves, got Turner and Garver late as well as Alex Swim. In 2014, Burdi was a steal. Batts, Cederoth, Murphy, etc.looks like another good one. I also believe the Meyer and May trades are going to pay off for us. He has done about as good of a job turning the system around as we could have asked. I think we went from mid 20's to top 3.
  20. tobi0040
    Hopefully that came up in the interview. That is beyond concerning.
  21. tobi0040
    I agree completely. If he was engaged he would say whatever he thought. But it is that loose cannon trait that makes the team not call him and I don't blame them for that.
  22. tobi0040
    Same here. On a side note, I mis-spelled Doug's last name so bad, that it took my third attempt for Google to offer a suggestion.
  23. tobi0040
    Agree on the authenticity part. But I am not sure Ozzie is the best example. I think the Twins could have a credible search without including him at all.
  24. tobi0040
    I am of the belief that our next manager is almost a lock to be Molitor or Doug. I think from a PR perspective, we simply need to interview outside to check a box. I have no way of confirming that external guys did not have a fair shot, only a way of confirming I am wrong if they go exernal.
  25. tobi0040
    I agree with you about the from afar part, parsing words, etc.. But we are lunatic fans and this is all we have to go on. I also agree the GM plays a huge role in costructing the roster based on SABR type metrics. But lineup constrution and platooning are on the coach too, and being open to and driving defensive shifting shows me that Molitor views the game as an evolving one and he seems more open to me. Admittedly from afar.
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