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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I completely agree about winning and losing, a team that sniffs .500 next year, driven by a big free agent signing and young players coming up would stop much of the negativity. The issue is I think you have 3 FA pitchers that can help us and whether or not the Twins will do that. I think Max and Lester get 6-8 year deals (Lester is almost a lock to the Red Sox). CC received an 8 year deal with a 9th that vests when he was 29 I believe. Verlander received a 7 year deal when he was 30. When it comes to those guys, a high AAV 4 year deal is a pipe dream because they are going to get $24-25M a year on the long deal anyway. Shields is going to get 5 years IMO at $20M. So a 4 year deal with more a year is probably less attractive than a 5 year deal. 4/90 is not better than 5/100 IMO. Ervin is probably the most likely, but is he really an elite pitcher and does he make us much better? His ERA+is 93 this year and it was 74 three years ago (sandwiched by a very good 127). He has the making of another Nolasco type conract.
  2. tobi0040
    I typically go to 3-4 games a year, including two with my family of four. I went once this year with a friend and that was 100% based on it being a day game and popping over to TF on a nice day instead of working. So it is not just the season ticket holders. I kind of wonder if they will be pushed to starting the year with Meyer or bringing up Sano/Buxton early.
  3. tobi0040
    I have a friend that says the Twins don't sell baseball or entertainment, they sell hope.
  4. tobi0040
    Of the four people that I personally know with season tickets, two have not renewed and another is on the fence. One of the couples actually stopped going to their games and have trouble selling them on stub hub. This franchise needs to do something to get people interested. The two that did not renew received a Brian Dozier life size cut out, followed by a phone call saying it was not too late to "upgrade". I completely agree that firing a few assistant coaches and keeping Gardy is not going to be enough. I think fans want to see him gone and they want to see better pitching. Whether that is via trade or signing a top free agent starter. I just wish we had an ownership group that did not need to pushed into adding top talent or firing a manager that needs to be fired. It is always a financial decision.....if renewal rate drops below x, spend money this offseason.
  5. tobi0040
    Someone else said it on another thread. I am not writing Hicks off, but I am not banking on him either. Doesn't seem like he gives a rip, to be honest. Has to be frustrating for the Twins. The guy was handed the CF job. They stuck with him through very bad play. He is late for things, showed up not knowing who the pitcher was one day, doesn't sound like he watches much tape.
  6. tobi0040
    Yeah, can we sub "talent" for "depth". I am not sure what type of depth the Tigers have. But it doesn't matter.
  7. tobi0040
    You really have to dig deep to make the case for him. ERA wise, his last good year was 2010, before that 2008. Before that never. Those two years had pedestrian xFIP's.
  8. tobi0040
    Yeah, defesive are in the first inning of providing value, IMO. Espeially player specific values. Here is just one example. Carlos Gomez defensive WAR by year, according to baseball reference: 2011 - 1.8 2012 - .6 2013 -4.6 2014 - .5 How could it possibly vary so much?
  9. tobi0040
    So Mauer is 3rd in the AL at 1B. Escobar is 3rd in the AL at SS. Plouffe is 4th in the AL at 3B. It does not say where Dozier ranks, but notes he is not top two. Lets say he is average. If you throw the catcher spot out, when the ball is put in play, it would seem like a very good infield defense. Wouldn't that at least partly offset the outfield? Maybe our overall team defense is not absolute worst in the league?
  10. tobi0040
    "His 3.5 million in incentives are for starting not relieving but the Twins got him for less guaranteed in case they moved him to the pen." The last thing the Twins should be worried about is Pelfrey getting cheated on that 2 year, $12M deal we gave him.
  11. tobi0040
    Yes, Yes, and Yes. We don't need to go 10-20 in April.
  12. tobi0040
    I completely agree. If we really, really wanted him he could have been had on a one year deal. I really don't see anyone giving a guy a two year deal coming off a 5.40 ERA or whatever it was.
  13. tobi0040
    Here are my two cents, I don't think many people used his injury has an excuse to pick on his contract. I and many others hated the Pelfrey signing initially. I thought it was an extremely low upside move and frankly a try out and rehab assignment for a Boras guy. Pre-injury, Pelfrey had been in the league for seven years. He had a career 4.50 ERA in the NL. His ERA was under 4.00 in two years, driven primarily by a high LOB %. In those years, 2008 and 2010 his xFIP was 4.45 and 4.31. Then, it was mind boggling IMO that we gave him a two year deal after his first one year, whether he came back early or not. Regarding a move to the pen, I am fine with that. Maybe it could work. The fear is that they give him a role because of his contract and keep a more intriguing arm in AAA.
  14. tobi0040
    While true in most cases, we saw the Rice video and AP pictures coupled with him admitting to using the switch. Regardless of what a court decides, that is enough for me.
  15. tobi0040
    I don't think he was saying this is media created. But rather a pendelum effect to a degree. PED's were ignored so now the media covers everything real time. I also think technology has allowed the media to cover these events in more detail. Anyone with a phone can now be a reporter. More things leak out beause of that and social media. So in the past you had accusations of something, now you have a video, pictures, commens from friends or family, etc.
  16. tobi0040
    I think this was a really great article that hit on many truths. They shoud not be role models because they are good at sports, but you can't stop a little kid from adoring a star play on the biggest stages and excel. Be cheered on, adored by fans, in commercals, on clothes, interviewed after the game about how great it felt to hit the big HR or the game winning shot. Just a personal note here. I had the same heroes growing up. Michael Jordan, Kirby, KG, and Mike Modano. But there was my mom. A single Mom who worked two jobs so my brother and I could eat. As parents we need to try and explain to our kids what and who is/are important. Eventually we grow and mature and so does our view of who we should look up to.
  17. tobi0040
    I guess I misunderstood what you were saying then. The part about not having the player that can carry us for stretches at a time being a big componenet led to my 1 or 2 player rant.
  18. tobi0040
    It is bigger than one player though. We are 63-87. If we added Clayton Kershaw (7.63 WAR) and took out Nolasco (-.4 WAR), we would be 70-80 right now. On pace for 75 wins and 87 losses. Assuming our CF is replacement level, adding Trout as well (7.76 WAR) would make us 83-79. Detroit has 84 wins right now wth 12 left. WAR is not perfect, but it can help us with perspective.
  19. tobi0040
    Not that this was intended for me, but I think the difference between a good manager and a bad one is 3 wins a year, max. The question is, is Gardy the good manager that will add 3 wins? I don't think he is. I believe he is behind the curve in platooning, playing guys out of position, advanced metricss, and lineup construction. And then you have the losing the DH fear. I personally don't see anyone blaming Gardy for 100% of the last four years. The lion share of our issues has been starting pitching, without question. But I just think people think that Gardy is closer to the problem than the solution. That is certainly what I believe and given the threads, believe that lies within the majority.
  20. tobi0040
    Yeah, they just need to give spots to young players and see what we have, or sign clear upgrades and let the younger guys compete for fewer roles.
  21. tobi0040
    I agree that pitching should be #1. By far. Absolute best case, this team is better in four places through young players. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and May. They need more talent than this. My ideal offseasn would involve signing a top pitcher and good LF. These have to be clear upgrades. No signing is better than a re-tread. Hoping a guy we signed on a minor league deal gets back the guy he was 3 years ago is not good enough. Hope is not a strategy. Absolute best case, this team is better in four places through young players. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and May. They need more talent than this.
  22. tobi0040
    I see the rotation and lineup better next year, but only margially. This will still be a bad team, no doubt. Next year I see Meyer emerging and Nolasco being better. Gibson and Hughes maybe regress a bit, but are still good (Hughes) and OK (Gibson).
  23. tobi0040
    Given the comment about Mauer to the OF, I think this is aimed at me. Just wanted to note that I completely agree our pitching plays a huge role in the defense. I cited a correlation between the two and said that bad pitching results in hard hit balls. Even cited our pitching getting better as one of the ways our defense gets better.
  24. tobi0040
    Hicks would have to be miles better and hopefully that .280 average holds up! Small sample size, I get it.
  25. tobi0040
    I can't argue that he is not older or taller than Arcia, although I am not sure that being 6-2 makes someone a better OF than someone that is 6-5. But right now my money is on Mauer in a foot race. We used to have a kid that was slow and when he would run after a ball, the coach would yell "unhook the plow". That is what I want to yell when I see Arcia chugging out there. This was a long time ago, but Joe was the national football player of the year and averaged close to 20 points a game in basketball as well. An adjustment period would exist, no doubt. But I think he would be a better OF than Arcia. I really do.
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