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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Kab, this is just like fantasy football. You can just take three guys that don't start for you and bundle them for a really good player. Get excited for a second, then get a text back from the other guy asking if you are high. The comedy of the proposed trades is one of my favorite things. Somehow, guys that could not make our team (Arcia and Nolasco), releivers that are no good (Duensing) and failing prospects (Kohl) can be packaged for a top 10 catcher or #2 starter. Don't ruin this for me.
  2. tobi0040
    I agree whole-heartedly. Especially in the case of Nolasco. He is unlikely to help the team and sometimes you need to swallow a bad deal if you want to play the free agency game.
  3. tobi0040
    I think you look at the catcher market and Plouffe is an option to trade. But I would not get our hopes up too high here. The fact that the current options are pay a ton of cash for Weiters (plus a pick), pony up top prospects for Lucroy, or sign a 38 year old AJ is a sign that this market is really, really thin. 4/60 for Weiters is not a salary crippling move in my eyes. I have a hard time seeing how he is not the best catching option we have in 3-4 years. You get into an issue when you have a guy like Nolasco who is making that kind of money AND is not a starter. Then it becomes an issue.
  4. tobi0040
    I would want the Twins to vet other alternatives and to see who is available and what the asking price is. If we conclude that Weiters puts us 30+ runs better than Suzuki and nothing else is really available, I think you part with the pick and sign him. No other roster spot is a bigger opportunity at the moment and arguably more thin around the league. And we have a ton of prospects right now. The Royals made a series of aggressive moves and they won the world series. Even making a deep run is success in my eyes for these types of moves. I think this would help us do that.
  5. tobi0040
    The realities are this: We have Zuke for another year at $6M and he is not really a starter at this point in his career. His OPS was .610 and he threw out 15% of runners last year We could probably contend next year with a better catcher. That is more of an opinion. The catcher position is the one that offers the best hope for improvement. That is fact. Teams just don't trade away young, good catching prospects. We have absolutely nothing in the pipeline, next year or three or four years out We are not signing Weiters and giving up a 1st round pick We will either trade for Lucroy or sign a guy like AJ. More likely AJ
  6. tobi0040
    This is very similar to my thoughts. He is talented enough to be a better utility guy than guys like Nunez. And has some chance to taking back the SS job. His trade value is not high and he won't cost much. So I think you pencil him in as your utility guy and give him the chance to prove he can do more.
  7. tobi0040
    This is a no brainer. Trade him and Ricky Nolasco for Clayton Kershaw
  8. tobi0040
    I think you have Meyer about right. We have a pretty good system and it is hard to put a soon to be 26 year old who still struggles with fastball command much higher. High school, three years of college, and four years of minor league baseball under his belt.
  9. tobi0040
    The only hypothetical trades I have seen involve Nolasco. Which aren't happening from the Padres perspective. Hedges could be a good prospect, so the Kepler piece comes close to cancelling out Kepler.
  10. tobi0040
    Chris Davis at DH and a league average catcher has to be worth 30+ runs over what we had last year
  11. tobi0040
    But you are talking about a guy that has gone five years in a row with a sub 4.00 ERA. I get he is aging and declining. But he is not really a guy you pay to go away. He is under contract but he will be one of their five best starters without question.
  12. tobi0040
    The only other Noah Tobin I know is a theatre guy in Boston. Nobody is scared of either of us.
  13. tobi0040
    Nolasco has no trade value. So you are asking them to give up Shields and Hedges for Kepler. Just not happening. We are stuck with Ricky.
  14. tobi0040
    Here I thought Mike Sixel was someone new. I just saw the number of posts and put two and two together. A quick google of Mike Sixel found this guy. I don't think this is you. But if it is, I am sorry about every disagreement we have ever had. You were always right and I was always wrong. I will never disagree with you again. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mike-Sixel-49473
  15. tobi0040
    Wild thing did admit to using PED's during the filming.
  16. tobi0040
    Law was the biggest proponent of this. He was very low on Berrios but has seemed to reverse course this year. Posters threw out Pedro a lot, but he would always fire back and say that you can't comp every guy under 6 feet to one of the most dominant guys ever
  17. tobi0040
    Also, the Blue Jays only had Price for 74 innings. Other than that they had four guys with FIP's in the 4.20 to 4.40 range.
  18. tobi0040
    I would go after Gray IF he would sign a deal that buys out 1-2 years of FA and they are overwhelmed by quantity, i.e. no Sano, Buxton, or Berrios. The odds of that happening are very slim with these pre-conditions. Just thought I would note that Gray was the 65th rated prospect at his high point. Not to say that every guy in that range has the same first three years as Gray. But at this point in his career Berrios was thought of higher.
  19. tobi0040
    We are not comparing apples to apples here. The 62M for an international free agent for example also pays the player for six years. In my hypothetical, the team that pays 40-50M for Sano also has to pay him for the next 6-7 years to play there. 3 ARB years is going to be another 40-50M My broad point is that younger players have an inherent value because they make nothing.
  20. tobi0040
    Very few things in life are less productive than arguing about the definition of "ace". I will just throw out numbers and we should all just make our own conclusions about the definition of ace. Last year, he was 9th in ERA, 26th in FIP, 21st in WAR, and 51st in k/9 among all qualified starters. He added 4 wins to his team. The guy is pretty good as far as I am concerned. Baseball reference says he hits ARB for the first time in 2017, but don't think that is right. They have been off on that in the past.
  21. tobi0040
    The best way to approach these would be, what would a team pay for the rights to a really good, young player that is controlled? If the Twins could sell Miguel Sano's rights, what would other teams pay? I would argue he maybe worth something like 40-50M given how good he will be and how little he will make the next 6-7 years. So when we start throwing in a TON of good young players it quickly does not make sense relative to what the FA will cost.
  22. tobi0040
    I think you both make good points. Ideally, you aim for both. Denard Span was a guy that would get on base 35% of the time. No real power. And he was fast. That combination does not exist on this roster so it becomes a process of elimination. Sano and Dozier are the only guys that are going to hit 65 or more 2B, 3B, and HR a year. Those guys are hitting 2 and 3 for me. The fact that Dozier is a better runner than Mauer does not offset all the solo HR's he will get leading off and hitting after 8-9, IMO. When I look at what is left, I just don't see a better high OBP low slugging guy that is fast. Plouffe does not get on base. Escobar was at a .309 OBP last year. Suzuki, nope. Hicks maybe some day, .323 OBP last year. Rosario, .289 OBP last year. and so forth. Seems like most agree though, Mauer at #3 is indefensible. Hope the Twins agree. I would rather have him at 6 or 7 than 3. #1 is ideal for me unless we add someone.
  23. tobi0040
    Agreed that he can't hit 3rd anymore. He is a classic lead off hitter, or #2 hitter in my eyes. Looking at the rest of the team, he will end up top 3 in OBP and lowest 3 in slugging. The only guys ahead of him in OBP last year were Sano and Dozier, who should be 2 and 3 in the order.
  24. tobi0040
    One of the best catchers, yes. But anyone could have predicted that his catching would catch up to his bat and he was likely not a catcher the last half of the contract. And also clear to most he was never going to have another season like 2009.
  25. tobi0040
    You never go into a negotiation absolutely needing to do anything. You have to have a point at which you say no. His agent knew that we were cornered and took advantage of it. This was a poker hand we really blew. We incorrectly calculated what Mauer would have ultimately accepted, IMO. He wanted to stay in MN. The whole Boston/NY rumors were just that. I honestly believe if Joe felt respected and was looking at $170M he would have taken that and stayed here. Had the Twins said, we really want to keep you here. We will rip up your last year and give you 7/170....Joe would have said yes. We could have went out 7 years instead of 9 (8 years contract plus his last year of his old deal). In fact, after the matter Joe's agent was pushing for 8/200 and his agent came back to Joe and said 8/184 is all I can get, they won't move anymore and Joe said let's sign. That is what he was trying to do, get as much from the Twins and then stay here.
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