tobi0040

You kind of wonder if a market niche exists where you can get quality players from rebuilding/poor teams on shorter deals. If I was the GM and concerned "with years, not dollars", this would be an avenue to explore. For example, Shields received 4/80 a few months ago. He is still a pretty good player and it sounds like he would have been available with the Padres taking back salary. Mark Buehrle is another example, one year into his contract with Miami. If the Rockies ate 30% of Tulo's contract, 5/70 seems like a significant discount to what he would have received as a free agent. It doesn't mean it is a good deal that does not have risk. But in an world where Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez makes significantly more than that it would seem a decent place to look. Now of course you give something up in the form of players or prospects, but the players that move tend to be of less quality than everyone thinks originally. Frankly, I am surprised we have not done more of these deals.

I think a combination of a lot of these things, as well as we were very hesitant to take on his contract. Guessing as a matter of curiosity we talked Tulo, but were never serious.

Story of the pen. Not enough talent, so everyone is playing out of role and worse than they should be. The kicker is we are literally one good reliever away from everyone going back to where they should be and improving the pen quite a bit. If we had a good righty, say Benoit we could use Perkins and Benoit in the 8th or 9th, whichever was best based on matchups. Then you have Jepsen against righties and O'Rourke against lefties. May moves back to where he should be (pen) and the rest of the guys are pitching in games that are out of reach.

I find three guys at least comparable to Jepsen last off-season who signed in the ballpark I threw out Jepsen 3.85 career ERA. Coming off 2.85 and 3.21, FIP 4.22 and 4.14. Comps: Jason Frasor 1-1.7M. Career 3.49 ERA, coming off 2.66 and 2.57, FIP of 3.28 and 3.37 FIP. Cotts 1-3M. Career 3.99 ERA, coming off 4.32 and 1.11 ERA, FIP of 3.58 and 2.17. Casey Janssen 1-5M. Career 3.49 ERA, Coming off 3.94 and 2.56, FIP of 4.14 and 2.74. This is Terry’s biggest issue. He dumpster dives and in the end has to give up more to fill the hole he created. Example, Tim Stauffer. He gave him $2.2M for 14 innings. That is elite reliever type money on a per inning basis. He can’t help himself from signing these guys like it is some game. Moving forward, I really hope guys like Burdi, Chargois, Reed, etc. can come up and be good set up guys or this is going to just keep happening. The worst part is you now mis-cast Trevor May to also fill this hole. Milone goes out and now we have Duffey come up instead of May shift back to the rotation.

Two thoughts from me First, guys like jepson or better are available every offseason and can be had for 2-6 or 2-8. Do that instead of Boyer, fein, and/or Stauffer and you are not in the position to give up anything for them Having said that and where we are now, scouts are not in love with Hu. Even the mid season rankings haven't moved him up. So given where we are an if we don't view him as a good future starter, then this is not a bad deal for 1.5 years of who is now our best set up guy.

That is why Ryan needs to be a scout and not a GM. The second he gives a guy some money, he is playing come hell or high water.

Admittedly, I didn't look at his home/road splits or trends. But if we step back, he is "trending" at 8 K per 9. No starter in our rotation right now has one with a 7 handle on it. And in the context of who we are getting, Shields 4.14 ERA if you take out his best two starts should be compared against Nolasco's, who is at 20 IP and 18 ER when you go through the same exercise. Ultimately I totally respect your opinion here. Not in love with Shields enough to block anyone. You would take him for free but realize that won't happen. The frustrating thing for me the last few days is this world in which Nolasco is going to be in a trade for an actual average to good player, Reyes, Shields, etc. Someone who a team could at least be intrigued by talking yourself into about well...they were good 1,2, years ago or whatever.

Here are some stats on the pen. I did not take the time to parse out May and Pelfey's time in the pen. I left them off for this purpose. In summary, our pen is 12-16 with a 4.00 ERA (129 ER in 290). Obviously the closer is going to have more opportunities to lose the game than a mop up guy. But we are four games above .500. We would be 8 with a .500 pen. I don't even want to know how many inherited runners from the starters our pen has let up. I am guessing 89.6% or so. Pitcher Wins Losses IP ER ERA O'Rourke 0 0 9 1 0.00 Perkins 0 3 41 11 2.41 Boyer 2 4 42.2 13 2.74 Pressley 3 2 27.2 9 2.93 Graham 0 0 47 19 3.64 Fein 2 4 31.1 16 4.6 Thompson 1 3 32.1 18 5.01 Duensing 3 0 26 1 6 5.54 Stuaffer 1 0 15 11 6.6 Thielbar 0 0 5 3 5.4 Tonkin 0 0 11 7 5.73 Meyer 0 0 2.2 5 16.88

First, I don't buy this meme either. But I think Mauer's bat has slowed down to the point where pulling is not really an option anymore. The OF defense he faces confirms this. If he could pull it down the RF line he could run to 3B backwards.

I am not as concerned with what is Polanco's best position long term. I am more concerned with who should our SS the next 1-2 years be. In my eyes he is at least as good of an alternative over Santana and Escobar. I would like to get his cup of coffee before moving him. The other names on here have way too much upside to be included in a trade for a reliever. If we get a catcher or SS that is another story. But I don't move Kohl Stewart, Arcia, for Polanco for a reliever. I could maybe move Arcia for a dominant reliever signed the next 1-2 years. Kohl....I get that he is not missing many bats. But we are talking about a guy with good stuff that is still raw. He is 20. His ERA is 2.72 in the minors. He started the year as in the 25-35 prospect range by most publications.

After signing Nolasco and Santana is successive off-seasons...I would be shocked if we signed another starter. Especially since you have the most talented guy in our system dominating AA and AAA and May rotting in the pen. My prediction, Terry Ryan will likely make one trade, after July 31. It will be a reliever who is between 37 and 45, who throws about 89. Some guy that has a 3.99 ERA and 5.10 FIP. His BABIP against will be .220 versus his career .300. What would I do if I was the Twins. I would either address the pen, SS or C long term via trades. If not I would make some moves internally. Trade for Beniot if the price is reasonable. Polanco is my SS. Pelfrey is in the pen, May is in the rotation for now. Berrios is next in line. Move up a reliever from AAA. Yesterday, Dick said that the Royals were below .500 this time last year. That doesn't mean go all in for me, but I think we have moves internally that make us better. No reason to wait.

The Padres have been a little crazy lately, but I doubt they view Shields as such a burden right now that they are going to effectively swap him for Nolasco, dumping him to avoid paying him 3-33 (even with a prospect attached) For one, it is the same GM that signed this deal like six months ago. People don't typically like to admit they were wrong that quickly, especially since he has a sub 4.00 ERA. If that really was an offer, I don't know how the Twins would not take a guy that has averaged 3.75 WAR a season the last four years for Nolasco. Just doesn't seem realistic, even if you accept that he is going to decline each year. When the alternative is Nolasco just about anything looks like a million bucks.I would take that deal in a heartbeat assuming you keep your top 8 prospects or so. Then I would move either May or Gibson for the best catcher that is 6-12 months away or who is in a rookie deal. Move Pelfrey to the pen and tell Duensing to take a hike. His numbers this year, 133.2 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 9.97 k/9, 3.16 BB/9. He has had a start with 7 ER and two with 5 ER. Said another way, he has been a sub 3.00 pitcher in 19 of his 22 starts. .

Benoit is due 8m next year. Actually not terrible if you look at his numbers the last five years. Just view it as 6-7m only, and the right to watch him get holds instead if guys like Boyer and that one guy we got from San Diego blow leads. He Must not have been very memorable.

Crazy how a guy can go from one of the best SP in free agency. Get a four year deal that is not really that crazy. Have an ERA sub 4.00 and now the team has to take back Nolasco to get any prospects for him.

May, Santana, and Gonsalves was superior to what they got, IMO. Gonsalves alone could be ranked where the top prospect in that deal was (#80 or so). They would have asked for Polanco instead of Santana and that package too would have been much better

Terry has gone all in a few times on HUGE trades. Mulvey for Rauch in 2009? Ramon Ortiz for Matt Macri in 2007? Moving the chips in the middle. You gotta pay to play is his motto.

I am not sure we should be modeling our strategy after the Blue Jays. Don't they have a history of "going for it" by taking their payroll to the max and then realizing they are an expensive .500 team and being stuck for years? Mark B., Reyes, BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett, Dickey, etc. Does Tulo make them a contending team? I don't think so. They are 12th in ERA in the AL. Frankly, they are doing exactly what I hoped the Twins would not do. Go all in on a crappy hand.

The irony of that KC/TB deal is the secondary pieces have provided a lot more value than people thought. Although, I am not giving up on Myers. He had an OPS of over .800, OPS + of 120 this year prior to getting hurt. Since the trade, Odorizzi has put up 295 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.5 K per 9. Controlled for four more years. I think KC got lucky with Davis. They targeted him because he was a cheap back of the rotation guy. Much like Perkins, something changed when he went to the pen.

I think Tulo's value was over-rated by most on these boards. Over-rated based on the 5-100 left on his deal and his injury track record. We can make fun of the GM all we want. But he probably heard from 10 teams and took the best deal he could find. If Terry had offered Berrios or Gibson, plus all the names some threw out the Rockies would have done it. One can assume like offers were not on the table.

I would like to see Benoit. Great track record, making $8M next year. Gives us a really good 8-9 innings. Play matchups in the 7th. However, if the demands for a guy like that are really high, say Kepler, Kohl, etc....it is hard for me to fault the Twins because they can sign a guy like that in the off-season on about a 2 year commitment. What do I expect? A reliever that is no better than Duensing or Boyer. Then we hear about how he is a veteran and been around and will really help us.

No.

MLB.com had Berrios 24th and Hoffman 69th. Law didn't have Hoffman at all in the 100, Mayo had him around 80. Since the pre-season, Hoffman has a 3.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 6.1 k per 9. Granted he is coming off TJ, but those numbers aren't catapulting him anywhere IMO. Berrios probably has upped his cause. 9+k per 9 with a 3.08 ERA in AA and promoted. A 4.00 ERA in his first taste at AAA, looks like he is figuring out the league now.

I think you maybe short changing his 2012 a bit. His BABIP was actually below his career clip. His oWAR ended the year at 4.7. That is a decent guy to slide in as your DH. He won a silver slugger and at the deadline he was on a pace of 43 HR. He ended 8th in OPS and WAR in the AL. 3rd in RBI. 6th in adjusted OPS+. 7th in HR. He won a silver slugger. In 2014 after a steep decline he was moved for a prospect that was 9th in the Royals system pre-season and 16th at the time of the deal. That is a system that minorleagueball had 6th best at the time. I am guessing Josh would have fetched a top 10 prospect in a good system. Teams knew he was going to come off the peak, but I don’t know how his stock would not have risen from the prior offseason.

I think it is tough to impossible to know what teams were able to part with. In the rental phase I think teams don't really care at all about the salary in most instances. The pro-rated amount is usually not too bad. In the case of Willingham I think his contract probably had some value. Prior to hitting FA he had 29 HR but that was quite a bit higher than the previous years. Then he had 27 on 7/31. So that type of pop, 125-140 OPS+ could slide into the DH spot if teams had doubts about him in LF. Generally I agree with you but this situation was a little unique. It seems like if he had hit FA after that year he would have received more than 2/14

I think he had a ton of value. At the deadline he had .271 avg, .951 OPS and 27 HR. 2 years @ $7M a year left.