tobi0040

Regarding #3, I would like to introduce a new term. That should be called being “Marlin-ed”. A friend of a friend works for the Twins and this was a huge concern when we received calls about Willingham 3 months after he signed his deal and why we didn’t seriously consider moving him.

Obviously we can't give up much of anything unless he waives his opt out (I think you are saying he has one)

I think the last few years going multiple years for him was an issue, given the elbow issue he has had in the past. Teams went year to year at $14M, he turned down 3-33 at one point. And his agent also over-played his hand two years ago asking for 5-90 or something crazy. Now, he is absolutely un-tradable. The PED’s may have explained why he never needed TJ and some may not know if his past stats are really accurate.

I am not sure how familiar you are with Minnesota. Allow me to explain. We complain six months of the year because it is too cold. Then summer rolls around and we complain that it is too hot and muggy. We run the AC and stay indoors. Kind of how we operate. In baseball terms we spend years complaining about seeing our players leave even though they often leave with really bad contracts. Then we give Joe Mauer $184M and then instantly complain when he is hurt, moves off catcher, or doesn’t hit enough HR’s. So please let us complain about not getting Tulo. Don’t rain on this parade. The enthusiasm of the trade (that won’t happen) will last until he hits into a double play or misses one game. Then we will spend five years complaining about all these aging veterans.

If I'm a GM, I would rather be on the Rockies side of the table on the Tulo or Berrios, Polanco, and Kepler deal. I will draft and develop a guy, get him up through 30 (peak production), flip him and start over. That is a much better formula for long term success than the Twins side here. Personally, I think the Twins have too much money already tied up in aging players. We have $50M locked up in immovable players (Mauer, Nolasco, and Ervin). As good as Tulo has been when healthy, he has a shot at becoming immovable with another injury or two. The irony here is as you get payroll and roster spots locked up in 30+ year olds you need young cheap players to step up. So I see these three for one deals as hurting you on both ends. Berrios, Polanco, and Kepler are close to a lock in my eyes of helping the Twins.

The one example just happened to be the one team in twelve that won the WS. Two comments FIrst, Their playoff rotation was Lincecum (3.43 ERA), Bumgarner 3.00 ERA), Cain (3.14 ERA), and Sanchez (3.07 ERA). In no way comparable to ours. Second, the Giants may not regret it, but the Giants may regret giving up Wheeler and the A’s probably regret giving up Addison Russell.

Huh? This is a really bad case of cherry picking. Gomez was about right, although pre-2008 he was #52 by BA and #65 by BP. He was in the majors and no longer a prospect. His OPS plus was 55 in his 58 games up to the time of the trade At the time of the trade (pre-2009), Guerra was not rated. Pre-2008 he was #35 by BA and #79 by BP. He then went out and put up a 5.41 ERA at high A that year and fell off all lists. Humber was last rated before the 2007 season, 26 by BP and 73 by BA. He was a nothing-burger when we traded for him. So you basically had Gomez plus three un-rated players. Berrios is top 30 on some lists and Polanco is a borderline top 100.

True. But I think the next five years you take Tulo over Polanco, which is a smaller gap IMO and more importantly lose Berrios over our 6th best starter.

But a trade and FA are mutually exclusive when you take on $100M via trade. The 10th reason why this deal won't happen. If you are Mr. Pohlad. You have been burned with injury on the $23M Mauer deal post 30. Burned on the $14M Nolasco deal post 30. Taking on $100M for Tulo seems crazy to me. From his ages 25-29 seasons (prime), he missed roughly 275 games.

I would be excited if we traded for Tulo. I just don't think it would push us to the WS this year with Pelfrey in the rotation, Kurt at catcher, etc. I would be excited but the track record of trading really good young, controlled cheap players through their prime plus other pieces for 30+ year olds making $20M a year is not good. That has been a losing bet more than a winning bet. It is not the way in which you build a team for the long term. Especially a guy that missed a ton of games through his prime.

That is just it. The last 12 deals didn't really propel a team to become a WS champion and most if not all of those teams had a starting point of a more talented team than we have right now. Now those pushing for Tulo could argue it is a five year deal. Admittedly that is diffferent than most of these rentals. I still don't like that deal for the money and cost of prospects for a 30-35 year old who has been hurt a ton.

I went back to 2010 and looked at the biggest trade deadline deals. I found 12 deals (none in 2013). A few of these names don't seem marque now but were at the time. Dempster was sporting a 2.65 ERA and Bourne was a .766 OPS CF. Year Player Team Result 2014 Price Tigers Lost round 1 2014 Lester A's Missed playoffs 2014 Jeff S. A's Missed playoffs 2012 Dempster Rangers Missed playoffs 2012 Pence Giants Won WS 2012 Greinke Angels Missed playoffs 2011 Jimenez Indians Missed playoffs 2011 Bourn Braves Missed playoffs 2011 Pence Phillies Lost round 1 2011 Beltran Mets Missed playoffs 2010 Lee Rangers Lost WS 2010 Haren Angels Missed playoffs A few takeaways from me. One of the 12 buyers won the world series. That would be the Giants in 2012 with Hunter Pence. He put up an OPS of .671 with SF and a playoff OPS of .670. So his contributions to that world series were not exactly huge. The other takeway is that these deals are not symmetric. Look at the Mets giving up Wheeler for a Beltran rental. Now this could be the poster boy of bad trades, but you are giving up potentially 6-7 years of control of a really good young pitcher for a rental. That is the type of deal that could really backfire. As I think about JO Berrios, similar long term risk. The Dodgers had Pederson on the table for Price but the Rays liked the Tigers offer better. I don't think the Twins are really in a position to make a move right now and give up a ton. I would swap May for Pelfrey, Polanco for Santana and get the best stop-gap catcher out there that won't cost a ton. I don't think we have the type of hand right now to go all in, especially since the odds at winning the pot have not favored doing so.

I think having may in the rotation instead of pelfrey, over the last five or so starts, and next five would have a bigger impact than any trade would.

We don't have that need. Rumor is we are working on a 5 year extension for Hunter.

Those sweetheart deals usually give more money up front to give the player an incentive to sign. Tulo thru 2020. Mauer thru 2018. Ervin thru 2018 and possibly 2019. Nolasco thru 2017. Even if we could sign Sano and Buxton. What about a 31 year old Dozier, Berrios, May? I just don't agree with the notion that taking on $100M for Tulo doesn't prevent something in the future. Tulo means roughly 90M locked up per season for 6-7 players.

well past 33? Does that mean they played the position well (good), past the age 33 or well past age 33, meaning like Jeter until he was like 39.

I don't know anyone that thinks Gibson will accumulate 40 WAR before he is 30 like Tulo did. That is not the quesiton though. It is more complicated than that. Gibson might make $25M in the next five years which will be his prime. Tulo will make $100M in the next five years, which is not his prime. A better question would be, if we had $100M to spend would you rather have Gibson AND $75M to spend or Tulo from ages 31-35/36. Or, would you rather have Gibson and the ability to sign Sano to a sweetheart deal in the next year or two, or Tulo from 31-35/36.

This trade is proposterous. Clippard last offseason was traded for a guy that can play SS with a career .732 OPS. That is Clippard alone

It appears you are correct. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/limitations-war/ So Tulo has been a 4.4 WAR player from ages 22-30. Safe to say we are still not getting a 5 WAR player from 31-35/36. Not as drastic though.

Dave, he is not a 5 WAR player. Can we please stop acting like these numbers will translate away from Coors? In almost exactly half his games this year he has a WAR of 2.2, with the following home and road splits: .883 OPS at home and .827 OPS on the road. It is safe to say if you doubled his road WAR up to this point his total WAR would be in the 3’s. For his career he has averaged 4.5 WAR per season if you take out his 25 game rookie season, from ages 22-30. Now his WAR on a 162 game basis is higher but shouldn’t we consider all the time he missed? He is more likely to miss at least as much time in his 30’s. Here are his career home and road splits: Home: .323/.395/.956 Road: .277/.349/.819 I can’t find home and road WAR, but it is safe to say that the home numbers are well over half the annual 4.5. So we can safely assume that through his prime he has had a WAR in the 3 range per season. I am not even remotely interested in taking on 5/100 for a guy that is almost 31 and will start with a 3 WAR and decline from there. Let alone give up 7 years of control of our best pitching prospect in the process. If we have an extra $100M laying around we can find something comparable on the FA market next year or from another team trying to get out from under a bad contract.

What is relevant is we are trading for a short stop that is almost 31. He would likely be our DH in a year or two. So now we have a DH making $20M who will be in the .800 range for OPS. The value has plummetted quite a bit.

Ramirez's career OPS is .869. Tulo's road OPS is .819.

Tulo's career OPS on the road is .819. That was accumulated during his prime. It is safe his OPS the next 5 years will be lower and he is likely to be injured more than he has, which is a lot. We would be effectively giving up on a borderline Top 100 prospect (polanco) AND likely have to part with a package centered around one the best two young pitchers in our system (JO or Gibson). Both are cost controlled through their prime which is invaluable. Further. If we had a spare 100 million last off season we could have signed Hanley Ramirez who has a career OPS of .869. 50 basis points higher than Tulo's road OPS and we would not have to part with good assets. Lastly. Roughly 90 million would be committed to a bunch of players in their 30's save dozier and Hughes. IMHO that prevents keeping a talented young core a few years from now because we have 32-35 year olds. It should not be the case but it is. Lastly part Two. If we are going to part with crazy young players and take a huge salary back, I cast a vote for hamels. Not tulo. He has been healthier and does not have home park question marks.

Is that realistic though? I think the Twins would absolutely factor in what we have in obligations as well as potential upcoming obligations into taking on a $150M deal.

The numbers here are not perfect but should be within a ball-park. We have all these threads out there suggesting we should extend guys right now. Sano, Gibson, and Plouffe the most common. We had some really high numbers thrown out already for Buxton and I am sure we are a year or two away from the chatter about extending Berrios and May. With that top of mind, I come up with about $95M in commitments to 7 players if we add Tulo. Most that go out 3-4 years (5 for Tulo). Save Dozier and Hughes, these guys are all on the wrong side of 30 already. So I would hate to be in a position that we can't afford to lock up someone like Sano, Berrios, or Buxton if they prove to be a stud through their prime becaue we are paying a bunch of 34-35 year olds 2016 Mauer (23), Tulo (20), Nolasco (14), Ervin (14), Hughes (12) Dozier (7.5), Perkins (5). $95M for 7 players. I have a bias against one trade for one player that blows through farm assets and payroll assets at the same time. We should think about what a 5 year $100M contract on the free agent market next winter would look like. Because you can spend the money there without giving up a Gibson, Berrios, etc. Additionally, Tulo is not a SS for that entire contract and his road .819 OPS will decline.