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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I think you can lose a game in the 7th, as easily as the 8th or 9th. We have certainly seen that this year. It is part strategy, but managers with better players tend to make the best decisions. Molly's choices here don't always make most sense, but five of the seven tools in his toolbox are not good tools. One of the good two appears to be playing hurt and it shows.
  2. tobi0040
    Okay. I am guessing you can find five that are not helping right now and won't be on the 40 man next year. If we really want to live on the edge we could go into the rule 5 with guys like Darnell or Thompson unprotected.
  3. tobi0040
    Would anyone here shed a tear if the Twins lost the likes of _________(insert 15 players from the 40 man)
  4. tobi0040
    I am tracking. But I wanted to add that sometimes when he initially misses, he doubles down and extends liabilities. See Pelfrey.
  5. tobi0040
    Even in the Johan case, we drafted him and then worked out a trade with the Astros. In doing so, we did not need to keep him on the MLB roster and use up a spot. His first year he was able to pitch 48 innings in AAA and work on his change up. Graham has been a very different and costly experiment.
  6. tobi0040
    To further your point. How many guys In this pen are actually on the team next year? Hopefully only Perkins and Jensen. So overworking them isn’t going to be a huge concern of mine.
  7. tobi0040
    The May decision was baffling. But the pen falling apart was entirely predictable from the off-season. No team will ever contend with the innings allocated as follows: Tim Stauffer 15 IP. 6.60 ERA JR. Graham 57 IP. 5.05 ERA (most innings in pen) Thompson 32 IP. 5.01 ERA O'Rourke 14 IP. 5.00 ERA Duensing 34 IP. 4.67 ERA Fein 43 IP. 3.71 ERA Boyer 48 IP. Sub 3.00 ERA, awful peripherals. We are 3 games out of the WC race. We would be 3+ ahead with a decent pen. All we had to do was sign a guy like Jepsen in the offseason vs trade for him, then allocate the Stauffer and Duensing $4.9 M to one pitcher actually worth that much money.Two pitchers actually worth $2.5M would have been okay too
  8. tobi0040
    We can't be criticizing Buxton's 37 AB when Hunter has had an OPS in the .540 range the last 24 games. Or a .644 OPS since 6/1.
  9. tobi0040
    In 37 AB, 1 hit is equal to 27 basis points on his BA. He hit .198. Two hard hit balls at someone a foot the other way and he is a .250 hitter and nobody says he floundered up here. I completely agree.
  10. tobi0040
    I think Plouffe would likely provide more value via trade than in a super utility role.
  11. tobi0040
    But we could say the same about anyone stuggling. If they only played way better that would be great. To me the more important thing is who is more likely to play better over the next five or six weeks. In that scenario Hunter is rarely used.
  12. tobi0040
    Hunter's OPS since 6/1 is .644. He has slowed down big time. Not a real shocker there. He is 40.
  13. tobi0040
    Here is where it gets tricky. I whole-heartedly agree with you. If we signed a veteran guy to be the 4th OF that was cheap, had a low ceiling but could step in if other guys flamed out that would in theory be a good idea. The reality is you can't give this franchise guys like Mike Pelfrey, Torii Hunter, or Shane Robinson. They have repeatedly proven to trust veterans more than prospects, even when the prospects are playing better. Robinson has 160 AB's this year and literally nobody has been injured in front of him. We kept Pelfrey in the rotation over May and Berrios. Up until a few weeks ago Robinson had a .610 OPS. Since 6/1, Hunter has a slash line of .205/.261/.384/.645 and has received 240 AB's. Pelfrey and Milone are seeing double the innings of May. Just No.
  14. tobi0040
    I sincerely hope we won't be adding an OF this off-season. Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, Kepler, Walker, etc. Just no.
  15. tobi0040
    I agree he has room to improve and is adding value now. Still could in the future. But the .417 number is going to fall a ton.
  16. tobi0040
    1. Miguel Cabrera has a career BABIP of .348. Evenly split .348 vs. right and left handers 2. Miguel Cabrea >>>>>>> Aaron Hicks Aaron Hicks will not over any length of time have a BABIP of .417 in any matchup
  17. tobi0040
    My initial thoughts were identical. I am guessing Hicks and Rosario play better defense out there with a similar bat, and less expensive too.
  18. tobi0040
    Can swing between DH, LF, and bench. You can get by with Arcia in LF with a ground ball pitcher on the mound. Like Gibson.
  19. tobi0040
    Two of our other four OF can play CF. So too can two INF in a pinch. Sugar Shane. Great guy. Good teammate I am sure. But it is time. Looking out to next year, we could break camp with Hicks, Buxton, and Rosario in the OF mix. Please, please don't reserve a roster spot for a weak hitting versatile OF that can't hit. We have enough versatility.
  20. tobi0040
    Agreed on all fronts. And I am not sure why we need Buxton's loyalty to the AAA team. He has played on the big league team as long as he has at AAA this year.
  21. tobi0040
    I was at the game, that was a truly brutal play in CF.
  22. tobi0040
    I am not sure why we would wait until the AAA season ends. Not the right priority IMO.
  23. tobi0040
    A ton of people had Mark Appel #1 on their draft board and a lot of GM's would have gone with Appel or someone like Gausman who was viewed as a ML starter in short order given the MLB need. I don't think drafting Buxton was a lock. Regarding Sano, we offered him the most money. So we absolutely should give the GM's credit for that. We placed a number of $3.5 on him and it was higher than anyone else. That is the definition of good scouting.
  24. tobi0040
    Yeah, not a bad thing that other guys came up and played well. That is what has happened. I will say that if we plan on moving Plouffe and having Sano DH, I have a tough time finding a better DH than Arcia, especially against righties. So 80% of the time we get a .780 OPS or so out of that spot. I will take it. I could see a plotoon against righties where we throw Arcia in the OF when someone like Gibson is pitching, a ground ball guy. That is more what I would consider rather than what the Twins will do.
  25. tobi0040
    Let’s take a step back. We win 95 or so games in 2010 with a $115M payroll. The next year with the same roster we keep payroll at $115M and we win like 62 games. It is an aging roster, most of the key guys are 30+ and want a fair amount of money. Our farm system is in the lower 1/3 of the league and the key guys, like Sano and Gibson are not ready. Ownership decides to tear the team apart and rebuild with an emphasis on rebuilding a sustainable team. Given the situation I think that was the right move to make. That roster/farm system was not going to go from 62 wins to 92 wins in a year or two. We were too far away. Let me first say that I don’t like everything Terry did. But he was brought into rebuild the team to a sustainable winning team. We have the second best farm system and several of those guys have stepped up. It is hard for me to sit here and say he failed at completing his task.
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