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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I am not confident that he can improve the BABIP number though. His bat has slowed and teams are not worried he will take balls down the RF line. So the 3 OF play in about 70% of the field and catch a lot of balls that fell earlier in his career.
  2. tobi0040
    I wish this headline was available two months ago. Put Berrios in there.
  3. tobi0040
    If all I was looking for was a home run or bases clearing hit in the 9th with 2 outs, ABW might look lost in 80% of those instances. And he still might provide that HR 10% of the time. The question for me is he more likely to do that than Vargas, or current options like Nunez? I think you can make that case.
  4. tobi0040
    In fairness, we are talking about a very limited role and looking for a very specific thing (A HR or 2B).
  5. tobi0040
    He has hit 62 HR, 3B, or 2B the last year in 533 AB. So there is a 11.6% chance he clears the bases in a bases loaded, 1 or 2 runners on scenario late in a game (and another 19% he hits a single or takes a walk) Arcia is at about 8% in AAA. Vargas is at 10% in the minors this year.
  6. tobi0040
    I think part of the rehab process is removing yourself from the game altogether and give your brain a break. Even catching without fear of a foul tip may go against that advice.
  7. tobi0040
    My list: Berrios to the rotation. Fryer just so we can pinch hit (we should be able to now though) Chargois - throw him in the pen. Walker - After the season is over in AA, who better to put in the bottom of the 9th, down 3 runs with two runners on and 2 outs?
  8. tobi0040
    I think you could do this exercise with almost any team. Fun to think about but hard to draw any conclusion. Boston Red Sox - Lester, Ellsbury, Victor Martinez (2010), Josh Reddick, Jed Lowrie, etc.
  9. tobi0040
    While we still have Duensing, anything is possible.
  10. tobi0040
    My guess is Milone if moved this off-season. He may actually have some value. The peripherals are not great, but he has a career 3.94 ERA. Three years of control (per BR), He will probably cost 3 years and $15-20M. That contract value has to look somewhat appealing relative to the FA market.
  11. tobi0040
    Terry just called me and asked my opinion. The Twins starters have been adjusted based on my feedback. Gibson-May-Berrios.
  12. tobi0040
    I looked at the Wild Card standings and noticed some really bizarre run differentials (relative to wins and losses). I bolded a few of them. Yankees 69-57 +50 Twins 65-61 -8 Rangers 64-61 -32 Angels 64-62 -6 O’s 63-63 +51 Rays 62-64 -20 Tigers 60-66 -48 Indians 60-66 -16 WS 59-66 -58 M’s 59-68 -91 Red Sox 58-69 -41 A’s 55-73 +10
  13. tobi0040
    Someone needs to move to the pen or get hurt. I would really like to see this kid. I think he could help us.
  14. tobi0040
    Yeah, and that is fine with me given three immovable deals, May, Gibson, and Berrios. We need to get better in the pen and catcher.
  15. tobi0040
    Some truth to this logic, but the fact that the numbers needed to be 50% vs. 10% shows me the rotation is way more valuable. The other side of this is you can't just move guys from the rotation to pen and back at will based on short term needs. Especially for a young player looking to establish himself. Further, why were we blindsided by the depth/talent level of the pen?
  16. tobi0040
    Jimmer, But this way we keep the development going for Milone and Pelfrey, key building blocks for us.
  17. tobi0040
    Spot on Brock. Taking your most electric arm that throws multiple pitches and moving him to the 7th or 8th inning guy is not a smart organizational move. Many good relievers are failed starters, like Perkins or Wade Davis. But May did not fail. Big difference. We should also discuss the opportunity cost of each, a starter and reliever. At 2/15 or 3/15, you can sign a really good set up guy. A #2 starter is a 4-5 year and upwards of $15-$20M a year proposition.
  18. tobi0040
    It could turn out that Sano could inflate the market for Bryant in arb. Sano has 11 HR and a .978 OPS in 184 AB. Bryant has 19 HR and a .843 OPS in almost 500 AB.
  19. tobi0040
    I think that is a good point. But Boras almost always goes year to year and takes his guy to market. If the Twins do that with Sano he is a 6-7 year player for us and nothing more. So naturally a Sano deal is before a Bryant deal anyway. Or he will be fitted for pinstripes, Dodger blue, or eating clam chowder.
  20. tobi0040
    I can't argue with #3. But Manny signed a year after A-Rod. Manny actually had a higher career OPS than A-Rod did at the time. His $20M a year to Cabrera's deal in 2014 is about 3% a year. Cabrera in 2007 had an OPS in A-Rod's range (.967 vs. .935) and he was 25 at the time. Again $20M a year. I think people get carried away about salary inflation. Case and point, Harper and $500M. His career OPS is .883 vs. Stanton's .909. Stanton received 13/325
  21. tobi0040
    I was initially excited, but then learned he is a free agent next year We needed to do this in July. But we probably didn't give anything up. So I am not going to get upset about it.
  22. tobi0040
    From the 60's to the 90's that was the case. But the high end has not moved much annually since 2000
  23. tobi0040
    I don't know that the time value of money concept really applies in most sports contacts. That assumes the players are saving a majority of their salary and investing it wisely. In practice that seems to be the exception. I am guessing what happen in most cases is the team owners calculate the value based on NPV analysis and prefer to backload the contracts. Conversely, players typically want their riches up front, not because they have a financial advisor ready but because they want to buy things.
  24. tobi0040
    Salary inflation at the top end is not very well understood. Most think it is much higher than it actually is. In 2000, the highest paid player was A-Rod at $25M. It took seven years for another contract for a position player to top that one, A-Rod Again at $27.5M per year. It took seven years for the top player to get paid 10% more. Fast forward seven more years, the top position player is Miguel Cabrera at $29.2M per year. It took another seven years to move the top salary 6%. If the inflation from A-Rod's $25M in 2000 was 8% per year, the top player in 2007 would have made $42.8M and in 2014 $68M. Now the risk of Sano becoming a markedly better player than Cabrera and A-Rod is very low. That is why throwing out numbers in the $30M range per FA year seems like we aren't getting a real discount. Just prepaying the guy and taking all the risk.
  25. tobi0040
    Ideally the twins could go more like 10 and 100 and entice sano by overpaying more in the front years. Is the deal laid out really saving the Twins much money? I just don't see the value in "certainty", when you are locking him at Stanton or Trout rates. I suppose you effectively sign him to a FA deal in the 3-68 range, which is something that wont' be available later. You get fewer years but not a huge annual discount. I do 10-100 if I was the twins because his floor is incredibly high. 10 and 100 averages to 10m a year. Have we any doubt that his bat alone is going to be worth that as a DH, even if he does not become a perennial MVP candidate? give him 600 AB's and he will hit 30 HR and walk 80 or more times. That is an incredible floor and makes it very unlikely this would backfire.
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