Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

tobi0040

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,776

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    10

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    The difference between the Twins and teams that do it right is that they construct their roster with this strategy in mind. But I would argue that the Twins could plattoon a lot more than they do. Joe Mauer is not an elite hitter anymore that needs to play 150 times a year. Plouffe against righties is not a no brainer that needs to be started everyday. And a $24M commitment over four years to Park should not lock him in as your everyday guy. Buxton is probably going to take days off to clear his head after a bad couple of games in a row (where Rosario can slide to CF). So 3B, RF, LF, DH, 1B could become positions that are less static. I am not suggesting Mauer sits against lefties or Plouffe against all righties. But if you give those guys their positions 120-130 times and mix and match the rest we could likely score more runs. I think the Twins are too traditional in their thinking
  2. tobi0040
    Yeah. If he heads north like most expect.... I think the Twins are right if he progresses nicely at the big league level this year. I think they are wrong if he struggles for a long period of time and it hurts his confidence/development. There were at bats Hicks had where he walked up and just knew he was going to strike out. The Twins need to put him in AAA before ever reaching that point.
  3. tobi0040
    You have to be smart about your 25 guys, no question. Other teams have done it. You can typically find corner OF guys in the $2-4m range that can play each corner, sometimes guys that can play in the infield as well that have nice splits and mix and match them. Super utility types. But it would take getting rid of this, player X is making this much and needs to play every day mentality. When I was 10 we were at Disneyworld and my Dad made us all eat at Norway because they had a buffett. Of course Norway has terrible food and we had to "get our moneys worth", so my brothers and I ate about ten pieces of lefsa. It was gross but we did it. We paid our money so we had to do it. The Twins are going to do the same with Park. They made a 4 year commitment so he will hit against righties even though our team would be better off if Arcia did.
  4. tobi0040
    Jorgens, In addition to Santana, you have two or three guys starting that can move to SS or CF at any time. With that flexibility, we need to allocate a bat on the bench. The fact that we haven't platooned more is sad. This is really math. Nothing more. But when the twins invest money in a guy they want to "get their money's worth". Like Park for example. A DH platoon of Park and Arcia would be great. But we won't do it.
  5. tobi0040
    Regarding the Twins deciding between keeping 2 or 3 lefties, I have a tough time seeing them breaking camp with three.
  6. tobi0040
    We are looking at different metrics. It could be that Hamilton is faster for 90 feet and Buxton for 270. But they use the scale from home to first because you probably get many reads a year. Timing a guy going for a triple creates a small sample.
  7. tobi0040
    My buddy had another. "Buterrible"
  8. tobi0040
    I have read this from a few different sources now. Billy Hamilton breaks the 20-80 scale for speed. Notice on the second link, 80 speed is 3.90 seconds to 1B for a lefty. Billy was clocked at 3.3 seconds. So it is possible that Buxton has 80 speed but Hamilton is much faster. Scouts commonly refer to Hamilton as having 90, or even 100 speed. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24479824/billy-hamiltons-sprint-to-1b-may-be-record-even-better-hes-hitting http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwik1v7s3cDLAhUI92MKHTJJDDQQFggkMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fathletewealth.com%2Fscouting%2F&usg=AFQjCNGhN7hEgELaMZXFPDhyLYwuIYJbjQ&bvm=bv.116636494,d.cGc http://fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com/2013/10/22/billy-hamilton-2014-fantasy-baseball-value-steals-vince-coleman/
  9. tobi0040
    Buxton gets a lot of comps to McCutchen and I have heard Trout too. I think those are off base. Those guys are .900 OPS guys with loads of power. Trout is a 30-30+ candidate each year and Cutch has been in the 25-25 range each year. I think Buxton’s offensive upside will look more like Carl Crawford in his prime. 10-15 HR and 50-60 SB while being among league leaders in 3B. That with plus range and arm make him a really great player. Still needs to figure out the breaking balls before that becomes a reality though.
  10. tobi0040
    Also both right handed (throwing and hitting). So four total similarities.
  11. tobi0040
    Gomez has had a pretty weird distribution though. He is a two time all star. But 13 of his 23 WAR came in just two seasons (of 9). And about half of his WAR is dWAR. I think Buxton can be at least the defensive player that Gomez is and I think Buxton has the ability to put up a more consistent offensive production than Gomez has. I hope after 9 seasons Buxton has more oWAR than 12 or so. I think he will.
  12. tobi0040
    I think it comes down to is he going to learn to hit breaking stuff in AAA or here? I think the nice thing is he can still contribute on defense and base paths while he figures that out.
  13. tobi0040
    Part of that was the talent though. May, Pelfrey, and Nolasco weren't pitching deep in games. Our pen was lower third and we had J.R. Graham on the roster all year and could use him about once a week if the situation was just right. But these are GM issues too.
  14. tobi0040
    But we come back to the same issue, on another thread folks were adament that the GM provides the 25 guys. If the 25 guys have a bench of a catcher and four 160 pound utility players than the PH numbers are going be awful with few opportunities to replace a guy with an upgrade
  15. tobi0040
    That is because the Twins have un-necessary anxiety about 2-3 players getting hurt in the same game. They have always prioritized their bench based on defensive flexibility. Heck, Suzuki started 123 games last year and his .610 OPS was deemed an upgrade to the tune of 3 PH at bats last year. The other issue we have is we have guys hurt for 7-10 days and we don’t put them on the DL. We are never pulling Sano out of a one run game because we want a defensive replacement. Rosario in LF will rarely ever get pinch hit for, especially by someone like Nunez, Murphy, or Santana. Mauer, Plouffe, and Dozier are never going to be pulled. Park likely won’t either. Buxton, Rosario, Santana, and Escobar can play all OF positions. Arcia and Sano can play the corners. Plouffe can play 3B and 1B. Escobar and Santana can play SS, Dozier could in a pinch. So the 4th OF needs to be a bat and we could probably add another like Quentin over Nunez.
  16. tobi0040
    The Pirates have gamed the system in the most obvious manner. They offered Polanco a 7 year deal while he was still in AAA and would not call him up if he didn't sign. It maybe a coincidence and clearly not as blatent it was intentional, but deGrom and Syndergard debuted for the Mets on May 7 and May 14. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24552994/pirates-offered-prospect-polanco-whos-still-in-minors-a-7-year-deal
  17. tobi0040
    Ricky's agents comments are pretty funny. Did he miss the 5.51 ERA in 2014 across 159 IP? And his comments about not going quietly to the pen, what a joke. If I ever get a huge payday and wildly under-produce, I am not going to make demands or act like a child. It would be nobody else's fault but mine.
  18. tobi0040
    Your post sounded dismissive of a 2.1 WAR player. I was just pointing out that guys like this have value. It was probably also speaking to your post with frustrations about others suggesting he will be nothing more than a fourth OF. That was Mis-guided
  19. tobi0040
    Of course there were assumptions built in. Assuming the same rate seems to me as the fairest way to do it. I found it interesting that the Royals only had three position players above your "solid starter" metric last year. His 2.1 would have been the 5th best player on the team that won the WS. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&team=7
  20. tobi0040
    The aging curve for hitting is about 6-7 years earlier than 34 based on wRC+. And these FG charts don't even factor in defense. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/
  21. tobi0040
    Between Rosario, Buxton, Santana, and Escobar on the roster, we have all the defensive flexibility that we need. The priority for the 4th OF should be a bat. Arcia makes a nice bench bat and can play against righties
  22. tobi0040
    During the 2014 draft I remember Peter Gammons saying he was surprised that some guys that need TJ were drafted (or recently had it). He specifically said that after having TJ, a pitchers arm will last about seven years before needing another. I think two nuances exist regarding looking at statistics. First, a vast majority of TJ’s have happened within the last seven years. So many of those guys would not have needed TJ the second time yet. Secondly, the track record of pitchers returning and being effective after two TJ’s is virtually non-existent. So it is quite possible that pitchers have received the diagnosis of the second TJ and simply retired. They would not be counted on these stats. As it relates to Gibson, he had TJ in 2011. Another reason why we should be in no rush to secure his 2020 or 2021 seasons (9-10 years after his TJ).
  23. tobi0040
    During the 2014 draft I remember Peter Gammons saying he was surprised that some guys that need TJ were drafted (or recently had it). He specifically said that after having TJ, a pitchers arm will last about seven years before needing another. I think two nuances exist regarding looking at statistics. First, a vast majority of TJ’s have happened within the last seven years. So many of those guys would not have needed TJ the second time yet. Secondly, the track record of pitchers returning and being effective after two TJ’s is virtually non-existent. So it is quite possible that pitchers have received the diagnosis of the second TJ and simply retired. They would not be counted on these stats. As it relates to Gibson, he had TJ in 2011. Another reason why we should be in no rush to secure his 2020 or 2021 seasons (9-10 years after his TJ).
  24. tobi0040
    Hughes will be 29 this year. Ervin 33. If they are both likely to decline, I am not sure what the rush is to secure Gibson's age 32 season. And Gibson may have a better season next year than those guys, but he can have that season here without an extension.
  25. tobi0040
    I said he is a #3 starter. And I said in terms of upside, he is behind Berrios, Hughes, and Ervin, making him 4th in terms of upside. I really would not mind a gibson extension if his arb ended at 28. I would not do it, but I would not care a lot. But at 31 it seems really unnecessary and color me hesitant to lock up another lower upside starter to a long term deals.
×
×
  • Create New...