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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Good stuff. I thought he had a few really good at bats yesterday. When he had two strikes last year it seemed like a gauranteed chase at a slider way outside. It looks like he is chasing that pitch less. Heck, he has an OPS of .857!
  2. tobi0040
    Very interesting article SD. Thanks
  3. tobi0040
    I like the gift card analogy a lot. To add, you are not going to get a gift card with a huge amount of value on it. ABW's power is intriguing. But let's take a step back. He will be a 24 year old in AAA for the first time. He came off an 844 OPS and red flags about k's, BB's, and OBP in AA. So that probably translates to a 750 OPS guy up here, which is not terribly awe inspiring at DH.
  4. tobi0040
    Especially since baseball is not a sport where the better team wins almost every game. The 2004 Tigers have the worst record in years and still won 26% of their games. The 2012 Bobcats went 7-59. The 76ers were close this year. The 2008 Lions were winless.
  5. tobi0040
    AL Cy Young. 1. Price 2. Sale 3. Archer 4. Keuchel 5. Gray Note, I think Sale and Archer will have the best numbers but won’t be in the hunt and will get penalized for a lack of wins. Not sure why the voters care about the wins like they do, but they do. AL MVP. 1. Trout 2. Correa 3. Donaldson 4. Cain 5. Betts I think Trout has gotten to the point that he wins no matter what his team record is (provided he has the best numbers). AL ROY 1. Snell 2. Park 3. Gallo 4. Berrios I would love to put Buxton in here but I am not overly confident in that right away. He could be sent down, or battle the first few months and turn it around mid-season. If either of those happen he probably doesn’t end the year with the type of numbers that warrant votes. Park on the other hand could hit .250 with 25 HR and that would warrant a lot of votes. Unless of course some don’t really view him as a rookie and vote for him.
  6. tobi0040
    Guessing the caveat is if they are producing runs. That has always been his focus.
  7. tobi0040
    And at the time of promotion, Sano had 66 games at AA in 2013 under his belt with a 913 OPS (with a 47 HR pace)
  8. tobi0040
    You are right about his hands, but he needs to holster them a bit. He k'd on that pitch yesterday that was about a foot high and 6 inches inside. That will be his thing, he is able to get to pitches others could not. But he needs to show a little restraint. The most extreme example is Vlad Guerrero. Man he was talented but I bet he could put up even better numbers if he chased less and made pitchers come to him. I remember he hit a double on a pitch that one hopped to the plate.
  9. tobi0040
    Yeah. Walker finished AA with an OPS of 807 last year. Sano was dominating to the tune of 915 and 918 there in his stints.
  10. tobi0040
    I may go Twins. Sano and Buxton are going to strike out a ton. Sano was at 35 percent last year. Buxton was at 34, and 36 this spring. . Park struck out 25 percent last year in Korea, and Dozier has the Twins record.
  11. tobi0040
    The interesting figure would be the gap between pitcher K's and hitter k's. One could assume the Twins have been bottom five the last several years (our hitters k more than our pitchers).
  12. tobi0040
    I am curious what your expectations are for Perkins then. Do you expect another down-ish year for Perk or do you just see Pressly as that good this year?
  13. tobi0040
    If Given the reps, Sano, Buxton, and Park could top 148 this year.
  14. tobi0040
    The Royals pen made a huge difference though and the Twins pen is miles away from that team. They were 2nd in pen ERA (and top heavy so they could really close out games). The Twins were 23rd and really didn't address it this offseason. I equate the "you can win the WS without a good rotation" to "you can win the SB with Trent Dilfer as your QB". While both have been proven true, they need further analysis. The Royals were slightly above average with the bats but really excelled everywhere else (pen, bases, and defense). Just like the Trent Dilfer needs to be qualifed with, so long as you have one of the best all time defenses.
  15. tobi0040
    Further, he was a CF who is now in the corner. So he has plus range there and showcased his arm last year. This projection seems automated to me, without a ton of analysis or thought behind it.
  16. tobi0040
    I think Rosario will edge his OBP towards 300 and I think Pecota has his slugging too low.
  17. tobi0040
    I find it hard to look at the starting rotation and state the era of pitch to contact is dead.
  18. tobi0040
    I think we need to chill on Bonds. Had every top 30 or 40 player taken steroids, it is hard to tell how good they would have been. Think of Babe Ruth or Ted Williams on steroids. Objectively, only 70 of Bonds career 162 WAR were before the age of 31. Apply a normal aging curve and you have a 100-110 career WAR player who ends up 20-30. About to be passed by guys like Pujuls.
  19. tobi0040
    I think age kills you a few ways. Injuries, you can't play the way you used to, and defense. This is a team that is going to be like the Bulls and Celtics without the rings and I think last year was just the first year of the cycle.
  20. tobi0040
    So my memory about the first two deals was off. The word "bench" was also a little off, if you remove his games with 1 AB he played in 13 games in April, 14 in May, and 22 in June. Giambi was released after playing in 50 games and his season was described as "injury riddled", so one can assume that Ortiz played more than planned based on injuries initially. I don't want to get caught up in the details. The fact is every team had a crack at him and he signed for very little and was not an everyday player. Given that and Terry Ryan jokes about how big of a miss this was, I think it is about time for Papi to bury the hatchet.
  21. tobi0040
    The best advice for Papi would be to see a therapist. Seriously, it has been 14 years and he has gone on to win multiple championships, make a ton of money and be about as well liked by a large city as you can find. Don't be that guy that is still complaining about his first marriage 15 years ago. He also isn't the first guy that was overlooked by the entire league (Papi signed a minor league deal with Boston, started in the bench and then signed a 2 year deal for a total of 4 million). I don't hear guys like Jose Bautista, Chris Davis, or even Sammy Sosa dwelling About how other teams screwed up.
  22. tobi0040
    I agree it will be a balanced division but the only team I have a really hard time seeing in contention is Detriot. They were 15th in runs. They add Upton but lose 102 games from Cespedes. Simply put I think they could be in the cellar 3-4 years.
  23. tobi0040
    Well. I had them at about 79 last year and they won the World Series. So I am taking over this year.
  24. tobi0040
    I think the issue is we don't have a future starting MLB quality catcher in our system. Period. I think the Twins lack of investment here (picks, FA signings, international prospects) signals they were not really thinking they needed one for several years. I think they thought Mauer was going to catch longer even though it was the other way around. Or they thought s guy like Pinto was their guy even though they never seemed sold on him.
  25. tobi0040
    I think Sano has 7-8 WAR potential at 3b, assuming he is not a complete hack defensively (although I have to think he has to be better with the glove at 3b than RF). Plouffe puts up a 720 to 740 OPS but by shifting Sano to LF, Plouffe's offense should be judged against a corner OF. He comes sort of expendable in that scenario and as the market dictated this winter, 3b were not in demand. I think instead of stubborn approach about value, you make moves to maximize wins. The move should have been Plouffe for a good reliever. I mean look at how little we gave up for Jepsen. Then you keep May in the rotation. I think we would be better at 3b, the rotations and pen.
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