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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    ESPN ranked the top players for 2016, using "70 ESPN experts". The list featured one Twins player, Miguel Sano. I was very surprised that he barely made the list at #96. I think he is massively underrated. Heck, I have seen Sano in the 20-30 range in fantasy rankings among position players. The ESPN list had relievers like Wade Davis in the low 20's. Rizzo and Bryant were 25-30, and Correa was 16th. I just don't see the gap between Sano and these guys as this wide. I could see him leap some of them this year. The top 10 is not out yet. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/2016BBTN100_20-11/players-ranked-20-11
  2. tobi0040
    We should be well past that point. It has value from an entertainment standpoint though.
  3. tobi0040
    If Rob Anthony has evaluated Murphy and thinks he has not peaked, take it to the bank.
  4. tobi0040
    Yeah, the guy is un-tradeable. I bet they say no to an offer of Buxton, Sano, and Kepler. Not many teams have three guys like that to offer. If we still had Duensing, maybe it gets done.
  5. tobi0040
    I would agree, maybe a band of .735 to .770. Most of that OPS based on slugging, with 22-28 HR and a bunch of doubles.
  6. tobi0040
    On a side note, it will be interesting if Nolasco complains about not making the rotation (7.35 ERA and 1.91 WHIP). At least Pelfrey had semi respectable numbers last spring when he whined
  7. tobi0040
    Pressly
  8. tobi0040
    Under.
  9. tobi0040
    I would go Mauer 1. 338 OBP last year and 9th in slugging. He lacks speed but is the best fit we have Dozier 2. Tons of doubles and extra base hits. Can knock Joe in 38 percent of the time. Sano 3. Your best hitter needs to hit 3.
  10. tobi0040
    Escobar had an OBP of .309 last year. His career is .303. We can do better leading off.
  11. tobi0040
    Here is the 538 article http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-the-odds-of-texas-am-comeback-over-northern-iowa/
  12. tobi0040
    Yup. I have never understood how starting 0-1 all the time is a good strategy. Especially when the cookie he lets go by in the first pitch is often the most predictable and hittable pitch he will see.
  13. tobi0040
    The issue with Mauer's slugging returning is that the OF shift has taken away a lot of hits and specifically extra base hits. It seems that the league has really figured out that they can ignore about 20% of the OF and put three guys in the other 80%. I think Mauer's bat speed as he ages makes it really hard to adjust to the OF shift. Especially when the OF shift is accompanied with pitching him away.
  14. tobi0040
    I think these are realistic high end numbers save the slugging. His career slugging is .451. He had 8 seasons during his prime with an OPS over .800, most well above. His slugging his MVP year was .571. I think .400 would be about as good as we could hope at this point (.371 and .380 the last two years). He was never a power hitter, but the OF shifts have eroded his slugging as well IMO.
  15. tobi0040
    I am a believer that you put your best hitter #3. That is Sano. But even if you put Sano #4, Mauer was 8th in OPS and 9th in slugging last year, but 2nd in OBP (behind Sano). So if he is in the .750 range he is in the middle of the pack from where a lot of guys were last year but skews higher on the OBP side, I put him #2. If he hits like last year he should not be near the top of the order at all.
  16. tobi0040
    Unfortunately this has been a no brainer for a few years now and he has stil hit #3. If he can get in the .750 range it would be a long way in helping out the lineup.
  17. tobi0040
    On a side note, if they are interested in moving Sonny Gray and he would sign a 4-5 year Gio Gonzalez type deal, we should seriously consider it. We have a ton of pieces in AA/AAA. Depending on how things shake out between here and July, we could have excess bodies at positions.
  18. tobi0040
    Pretty crazy that you can have a 10 WAR player and have Vegas saying 81 wins. I mean, every team starts in the 65-68 range.
  19. tobi0040
    You forgot about Worley. He is awesome. In all seriousness, Revere would have been a corner OF here and has a career .687 OPS. I think management knew he would get squeezed out here, although they probably thought it would have been earlier than they thought. I would rather have May right now than Revere
  20. tobi0040
    His ERA+ was 150 in 2002 and 148 in 2003. 4.1 BB per 9 in 2002 is high, but his WHIP was still solid at 1.22. He was striking out 11.4 guys per 9. It is not as dramatic with May because May is not going to be Johan Santana, but you just can’t have this type of talent in the pen when you have 5.00+ ERA types in the rotation. It is all relative.
  21. tobi0040
    The troubling thing here is you have a guy that is arguably a top two or three pitcher in franchise history, who made 13 relief appearances in 2002 and 27 in 2003, while less talented veterans like Mays, Milton, and Rick Reed were in the rotation. In 2002, Mays and Milton had ERA's of 5.38 and 4.84. In 2003, Reed was at 5.07 and Mays was at 6.30.
  22. tobi0040
    Smart organizations tend to defy expectations. They didn't last year obviously, but they can next year. They were 14th last year in runs and they usually have 1-2 players emerge from the last seasons trade. This year it could be Sean Manaea. He had video game numbers in AA last year and is turning heads this spring.
  23. tobi0040
    I am going off memory here, but wasn't there a arbitration or control issue with Johan? I thought we were keeping him in the pen to garner additional control. That the cut off back then had an innings component to it. I just tried looking on the google with no avail. I am probably not remembering this right.
  24. tobi0040
    Good point about the defense. It sure seems like the Yankees have followed the Royals playbook with OF defense and the pen.
  25. tobi0040
    Balance our roster was important. The other piece is bat relative to the position. So it isn’t fair for us to say, Hicks had a higher OPS than Ryan, therefore it was a bad trade. Using 250 AB qualifier, the top catcher had an OPS of .849 vs. the top LF at .886 (Posey and Colabello). #10 was Mccan at .756 and the LF Khris Davis at .828. #20 was the catcher Joseph at .693 vs. LF Coghlan at .784. On a side note, never thought Colabello would lead the league in LF OPS.
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