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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    These numbers just don't make sense to me. You only do this if you use the leverage of gauranteed money and raises above rookie and arb levels to get a significant discount in the out years. Throwing out numbers like $25M in the FA years does not accomplish this. I think you are basically just prepayinig a guy and restricting your options, not protecting any downside by doing this. It also assumes Buxton is going to be Mike Trout. That is a HUGE assumption. His offense will likely look more like Carl Crawford in his prime than Mike Trout (30-30, .950 OPS) I would give Sano a lot money (not as much as you have) because I can confidently say he is an above average major leaguer. I think the others will, but I don't know for sure.
  2. tobi0040
    If Dozier was a stock I owned I would sell it. This will likely be its peak value. The problem is Polanco in 2016 would likely result in fewer wins this year and probably next year as well. I hope we are in contention both years and we are in the winning baseball games business.
  3. tobi0040
    There is a big difference between mentioning he is the son of big league player and citing "big league bloodlines" as a positive attribute. The Twins have repeatedly done that (your article does not). Here is a quote from Deron Johnson. Frankly, in all the sports I have followed and the many sons that have been drafted, the Twins term "bloodlines" is something I have not seen anywhere else. “(We liked) his ability to play shortstop. We think he’s offensive. He’s got a really good swing. I think he’s going to have power down the road. He’s going to stay at shortstop, in my mind. He’s got great work ethic. Great kid. Big league bloodlines with his brother and his dad. We expect big things from him.”
  4. tobi0040
    Rosario's OPS last year was higher than Plouffe's and higher than Plouffe's career average. So if we are looking at a 24 year old with six more years of control vs. a 30 year old with one more year at $10M, I hope we are finding a new home for Plouffe. My gut tells me the Twins would go down this path, with the big IF being a belief Sano can play 3B. I am not sure they think he can so it would be a moot point. Then you probably have to flip Rosario or Kepler.
  5. tobi0040
    Right, but his high school to pro transition is no different than any other high school player. So if we are putting stock in bloodlines, than shouldn't we have expected him to transition more smoothly than players whose Dad and brother who his are? On the one hand we bring up bloodlines as a positive and on the other we glance past sub league average hitting out of a top 5 pick. I just can't square this circle
  6. tobi0040
    Wouldn't bloodlines and being around the big league atmosphere be most helpful during the transition from high school to the pro's? Wouldn't we expect him to have a leg up during the first 1-2 transition years?
  7. tobi0040
    If Eddie is putting up anywhere near what he did last year, I don't think he is bumped by Kepler regardless of how he is doing in AAA. At that point, someone is moved. I hope it is Plouffe. I have no illusions of Plouffe netting a return anywhere near equal to what Kepler or Rosario would. But the thought of having an OF of Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario with Sano at 3B and control of all for 6-7 years is what I am excited about. Add in Berrios, Gibson controlled through his prime, Dozier here another three years. I think we have something here for another long run.
  8. tobi0040
    This seems to be a theme here, but I don't really get it. I would not be shocked if he regresses or has a few slumps, but Rosario is going to provide plus range and arm in left he will have good share of extra base hits. Outside of 2014 in the suspension shortened year, he has always hit.
  9. tobi0040
    If we move Kepler we better fetch a really good player back. If Kepler is crushing AAA in 2-3 months, the expendable player that gets moved has to be Plouffe
  10. tobi0040
    Span's career OBP and slugging are .353/.395. Quite a bit better than Gordon's in A ball and rookie league .335/.362. Span did put up a similar OPS at 19/20, but really turned it on the next year at 21. In A/AA .307, .377, .364.
  11. tobi0040
    Yeah I get the sense that if we looked at these four guys objectively and removed where they were drafted, last name, etc. and just looked at numbers, league, age, and tools it would not be so cut and dry in favor of Gordon. Top prospects seem to get the benefit of the doubt for about two years. Most rankings had Gordon fall about 35 spots this year. Without a real modest improvement at the plate this year Gordon might be outside the top 100 a year from now.
  12. tobi0040
    Possible, but in my opinion unlikely Gordon has a .750 in the majors. Most prospects see their numbers go down as they advance, not increase.
  13. tobi0040
    Possible, but in my opinion unlikely Gordon has a .750 in the majors. Most prospects see their numbers go down as they advance, not increase.
  14. tobi0040
    Possible, but in my opinion unlikely Gordon has a .750 in the majors. Most prospects see their numbers go down as they advance, not increase.
  15. tobi0040
    Fangraphs has him 5th in WAR from 2013 to 2015 among SS. And .666 is not in the low .600's. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  16. tobi0040
    Maybe, I just hope that with the crop of SS we have in our system, the one that is the major league SS for the next ten years is not just sort of OK at everything. A meh kind of player.
  17. tobi0040
    The problem with a guy like Gordon is, he is going up against two guys that may excel at something that more than make up for their issues. If Polanco could put up a .750 or .800 OPS maybe you live with a ball or two getting through. A. Simmons has a career OPS of .666 an yet has a WAR of 17 across four seasons. So if Vielma can improve his bat a little bit maybe you live with it?
  18. tobi0040
    Yeah. I don't disagree that from a prospect ranking perspective, Gordon should be rated higher. But based on numbers alone, both Polanco and Palacios have put up better numbers and everyone agrees Vielma has the best glove. So for Gordon the cream is not really rising within his own system. So the "ceiling/floor" article suggesting he has all star capabilities and that his floor is an MLB player, or that he could become Barry Larkin could be reined in a little bit.
  19. tobi0040
    Buxton: Ceiling all star CF. Top of the order bat, 35-50 SB, and defensive game changer. Floor: Defensive stud with 35 SB and a .260 hitter. Still a really good player. Gordon: Ceiling. Above average defensively. League average bat. I don’t see him as an all-star. You have Lindor and Bogarts in the AL. Floor: Does not make the major leagues. Kepler: I buy 20/20. I am not sure if that is an all star though in the OF. Ceiling: 4th OF. Totally agree.
  20. tobi0040
    At this point it doesn't look like Gordon has separated himself from the other SS within our farm system (Polanco, Palacios, and Vielma). Is that fair?
  21. tobi0040
    I would rather take a guy like Kolek who may have a higher chance to flame out. But he could be one of the best SP in the league. I am just not sure Gordon was ever going to be a top 3 SS in the league. To me it shouldn't be will the guy make it to the big leagues at five overall. It should be, will this guy be a difference maker.
  22. tobi0040
    Here is the issue for me. Simmons debuted at 22 and posted a WAR of almost 3. Lindor debuted at 21 and posted a 4.6 WAR season in just 99 games. Bogarts debuted just before being 21. He posted a 4.6 WAR at 22. Starlin Castro posted a 1.6 WAR at 20. And here we are, looking at Gordon. The article notes that he has not posted an OPS above .700 between rookie ball and low A. It notes that he has two HR and will likely not see a meaningful increase in his third year. And he will likely not see an increase this next year. And nobody really expected a quicker path to the big leagues because nobody really expected him to exceed these numbers to a great degree. I think it begs a few questions, is this the appropriate risk/reward at number five overall? At what point do we expect the bloodlines to help Gordon? If someone from the Simmons, Lindor, Bogarts, Gordon group is going to become a hall of famer like Barry Larkin, wouldn't the other three have a much better shot?
  23. tobi0040
    I can't get on board until I see better production out of Gordon. He has 800 plate appearances in the minors and the lead-in is still about his Dad. He has shown virtually no power and the article suggests he won't this year based on the league and does not expect him to reach AA this year. I will openly admit I have a few biases here that impact my view of Gordon. -Bloodlines mean very little. -When I hear a guy will develop more power, they rarely do. Joe Mauer was going to develop more power. So when I see a guy that has one HR a year I think we are kidding ourselves that they will likely be a 15 HR a year guy. -I thought this pick was way too safe at #5.
  24. tobi0040
    Many of the trades thrown out on this site are like fantasy football trades. Take two guys who are not quite good enough for a roster and hold little to no value (like Arcia). Before dropping them, group him together with another guy you are going to drop and propose a trade. Nobody in my league will accept my offers like that anymore.
  25. tobi0040
    I think we had a little brother, big brother issue against the Yankees. They knocked us out in four of six trips, with a 2-12 record Outside of NYY, we beat Oakland once and they beat us once. And we lost to the Angels who won it all.
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