tobi0040

Yes. I meant when Berrios is 24 or so, locking him up through 30-31 would be ideal. My standard is if you are very sure this person is going to be one of your five best, his arb ends while he is still in his peak, and he has the potential to really break the bank to the point we can't afford him. Then you look to extend. Gibson is probably one of the best 5 on the 2020 Twins but I am not willing to bet 30 million on it, especially to secure his age 32 season.

Well Mike, I am not saying that I would never sign anyone. But if Berrios is up here at 22 and a FA at 28-29 and looks like a #1 or #2 starter, that is the type of guy I throw money at. He is much more likely to break the bank because he is much better and will hit FA at a younger age. I think back-testing this thought process is a decent exercise. As far as I can tell right now, the Twins have done several of these deals. Johan, Baker, Mays, and Blackburn. I know I am likely missing a few. By my tally we are 1 for 4 and the one was a Cy Young winner before the deal. Blackburn, Baker, and Mays never reached the OMG they are so good and expensive I am glad we paid them four years early part. Tough to speculate exactly on the contract. but Mike Leake has a career ERA+ of 101 (Gibson 91) and he signed for his prime years at $16M a year. So I don't think Kyle Gibson is going to be commanding $20M or more post-peak (age 32), even four years from now. I think the risk averse move is to sign him thinking you are going to be saving money down the road. But I think it is prudent to calculate roughly what we think we are saving and weigh that with the risks, i.e. he goes backward from here, gets hurt, or we have more talented guys around. We can afford the additional arb money without having another contract. We already have Nolasco for two years, Ervin for three, Hughes for another four, and Berrios controlled for another seven. In my opinion, Gibson's upside is 4th among those guys (Hughes and Ervin have had better years and Berrios has much more upside). Not to mention May, Meyer, Jay, Gonsalves, Thorpe, etc.

But pitchers that you sign on 3, 4, and 5 year deals often times don't pan out either. We have two or three examples on our 25 man roster right now. Scott Baker was given a four year deal. Basically league average for the first two years. Above average the third year through 130 IP, then missed the rest of the contract. Joe Mays and Nick Blackburn were pretty bad too after we gave them a similar contract (Mays was actually an all star before the deal). So you have risks to these deals. I am not sure those risk warrant pre-paying a guy you have controlled anyways through 31. Is it worth saving maybe $1-2M a year in arbitration and having the option on a #3 starter at $15M a year?

2014 was an outlier for him. It was half a season after an embarrasing 50 game suspension. His OBP from 2010 to 2013 (.343, .397, .347, and .350). And I guess i don't get the 4th outfielder part. He had 1.7 WAR in 122 games with the OBP at .289. Had he played a full season he would have been about a 2.1 WAR player. That is not a fourth OF. He was 25th in slugging across all MLB OF with 300 or more AB's. Not LF, all MLB OF. If he does anything like that he can have a lowee OBP and be a fine player. Just like Cespedes in 2014. His OBP was .301 and he had a WAR of 4.1.

A year after Danny Santana was a left fielder, a month after Santana was an infielder again and Miguel Sano was a right fielder.

Rosario is always going to have a good slugging though. That has been his MO. He had 46 extra base hits in 122 games. With his doubles-gap type power and speed he should leg out 10 triples a year. The others are going to be doubles. He can have an OBP of .320 with that type of slugging, range, and arm and be a regular above average OF. A meager 20 basis point improvement on his OBP is completely reasonable.

If Sano signed a 15 year contract and was a DH the whole time, how many in the top ten would he have?

I see this Gibson deal as a no brainer the other way. In arb at 3-18, I am not sure how much money we think we are saving here. Same with $15M in his first year of FA. At most, we are saving $5-10M worst case. He is never, ever going to be David Price. With the glut of prospects, guys we have shifted to the pen that could come back, and guys we already have under contract, is Gibson worth it? His career ERA+ is 91, with one year above league average (last year at 108). He has already had TJ once. I think you target guys who could become top players and who will hit FA during their prime. Sano and Buxton are guys that fit that criteria. Gibson who becomes a FA at 31/32 does not for both reasons (age and upside)

We already have Gibson controlled through his prime (31). I don’t think he is ever going to be a guy that is going to be a $20M pitcher. And we already have too many veterans with contracts, I am not sure I add another. We have a group of guys in the minors with arguably higher ceilings in Berrios, Jay, Gonsalves, Kohl, and Thorpe. Meyer and May not be done starting too. I just see no reason. I could be talked into it for Plouffe if we have concluded there is no way Sano sticks at 3B.

I thought Sano was number 1. Guessing you have Gobson and Berrios

I am learning that we don't have many extension candidates. I like Rosario, but we have a ton of corner OF talent that needs to be sorted out. Escobar also has a little more to prove and we have a ton of talented SS in the minors.

For the record Thornton signed a minor league deal. His ERA was 2.18 last year with a ridiculous 480 OPS against lefties.

Well, that was the initial logic. We are talking about a guy six years from FA and comparing the out years to the FA market and recent comps. If we are just looking at free agents position players in a vacuum, I think Cano and Pujols are the most recent highs, at 10/$240 each. So free agent contracts have been going down since 2000. I will take the under on Bryce Harper at $40m It seems like the logic here is Buxton will be a top 5 or 10 player AND salaries are going to explode. This could be a recipe for a bad contract because you could be wrong a few different ways. Especially since he has not looked competent at the plate yet and salaries over the last 15 years at the high end have not moved a ton on an annual basis.

Alex Rodriguez signed for $25M a year, 15 years ago. He signed for $27.5M seven years later. Mike Trout's FA number is $33M and signed 8 years after A-Rod's contract. The rate of growth was higher on a 10 year government bond during these times than they were on the rate of growth on the high end of MLB position players. And I have been hearing about new revenue and its impact on salaries for at least three years

6/24 isn't that much more than he is likely to make. He will make $1.5M the first three years. Josh Donaldson made $4.3M in his first arb year. The record raise above that is about $7M. A few pitchers have made upwards of $20M in year three but they seem to make a little more than position players for some reason (in three minutes of google searching) So worst case I don't think Buxton would be leaving a ton of money on the table. He seems like a humble kid that may prefer the certainty of not worrying about money.

Last Year: First 39 AB .189 avg, .501 OPS, 37.5% k rate Next 40 AB .237 avg, .545 OPS, 40% k rate Final 63 AB .190 avg, .604 OPS, 27% k rate The k rate in the final AB's is encouraging. But obviously a small sample here.

There was this other guy too. Played primarily for Montreal, Boston, and the Mets. Great stuff. Should have won the MVP in 1999. Berrios looks like Deebo compared to him.

I would argue that being afraid of a guys arm, based on his reputation is a good thing. We don't know exactly what he is. So I don't know why so many seem confident he is going to flop this year.

It is admirable to hear these things about Glen. You give a guy that kind of money and he knows what is important in life. Regarding the extensions here. I see very little point in doling out 6/24 and not getting some free agent years for Buxton. I would rather see it start more like 6/27 or 6/30 and buy out FA1 and tack on an option or two. I would also wait until at least July to see where he is at.

I am not willing to say the 800 AB's Escobar had prior to last year mean absolutely nothing. Dozier has more of a track record. You think he will decline. He very well may. But given we are going off one year, I am not convinced Escobar had a bit of an outlier last year.

I am not following this part. Last year Eduardo beat Dozier .754 vs. .751. But both a three year look and career look give Dozier a fair edge. And Dozier steals a bag or two as well.

Agreed. "cost certainty" is not a huge deal. Especially since the amount we gave Dozier was pretty close to what he was likely going to get anyways. You are just locking in future payroll and prepaying a guy. You lose flexibility and protecting the downside risk.

We have been hearing about new money now for awhile and yet, Clayton Kershaw received a deal that went out 7 years and it was about 10% higher per year than the deal A-Rod signed nine years ago. I don't think it makes sense to average these deals, given that they make $500k a year for three years and gradually go up from there. That is more or less locked in. I would certainly be open to buying out 2-4 years of Sano's FA years and be willing to pony up a ton of cash to do it. Like you said a year from now we will know more and can re-evaluate Buxton. But I don't want to give anyone $25M a year in the process if it can be avoided. We have a ton of leverage right now.

I am very excited for him. I don't buy this pitchers have to be between 6-2 and 6-6 garbage. I will take his stuff, control, and composure over an extra two inches. It is a no brainer to keep him down 13 days. I fear it becomes longer if everyone is is just OK. I hope we do what the A's did when they bumped Milone who wasn't really pitching that bad

The guy had 15 triples, was among the league leaders in OF assists and had nearly a 750 OPS in his first cup of coffee as a 23 year old. Plouffe will likely decline. It is what 30 year olds do.