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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    But relievers are still the cheapest position to fill and one you can with the shortest commitment. O'Day was the cream last year and signed for 4-28 and he is good. Mid-level starters are still signing for $10-15M on 4-5 year deals.
  2. tobi0040
    I am not saying that he deserves no credit at all. I think he had a detailed 2-3 year plan for the Cubs and has executed that plan flawlessly. But I took the comment of “copy everything the Cubs do” as more broad than just the draft and wanted to point out that he has a luxury we don’t have (payroll). If you were taking just about the draft I think you are right. None of his free agent signings in Chicago have really been shrewd deals. Lester at $25M. Heyward at $17.5M. Lackey at $16M. Zobrist at $10M. Dexter Fowler at $8M. I am guessing these are closer to overpays than great bargains. But like the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, the Cubs are now a team that can go out and sign almost anyone they want and overpay without crippling the team. Had he gone to a team that can’t be a top 5 payroll and had success I would have been more impressed.
  3. tobi0040
    I think Theo has done a really good job timing his picks and signings for a sustained run. And that meant taking colllege hitters that didn't require a 3-5 year investment in the minors. For the Twins and the amount of talent most think they have coming up, a similar strategy would make sense for the hitters we draft (college vs. high school). I just have a tough time giving Theo too much credit. Because a good part of his plan involved timing those picks with huge free agent signings. And that is not a luxury we have. Their payroll went from $92M in 2014 to $171M this year. Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, Lackey, and Fowler will make $76m this year.
  4. tobi0040
    For pitchers I think you draft stuff. So whatever our scouts think post TJ or those other guys correcting. Just rather take that type approach than a first round pick like Wimmers. 90-91 with great control.
  5. tobi0040
    I am not saying you are wrong, but it seems like that is the report every year. At some point we are going to need to stock up on catchers. Whether that be an early draft investment, an international signing, etc. They just don't hit the free agent market very often and I can't remember the last time we invested in the position.
  6. tobi0040
    BLOODLINES!
  7. tobi0040
    The only wrench is the no trade is his contract. I know he does not have a no trade clause, but he took a discount to stay in MN and the Twins know it. Right, wrong, or indifferent I think that played a role
  8. tobi0040
    I love the draft coverage. Thanks Jeremy. I like the idea of taking a 1-1 talent 15th overall. All the picks are a crap shoot, so give me one with that type of upside. Any potential catchers at 15? What is the catcher position depth and talent in this draft?
  9. tobi0040
    There is a good study on the closer phenomenon. Salaries have skyrocketed with this newly created position. But conversion has remained constant over time.
  10. tobi0040
    More importantly, a GM that understands he needs something called insurance. Not Fernando Abad, or Buddy Boshers. Or Casey Fien for that matter.
  11. tobi0040
    It was not very tactful. But if my wife dealt with public insults thrown my way as I was working through an injury and/or going through a rough patch in my career I could see a similar, emotional defense
  12. tobi0040
    He has made $14M and is owed another $12M. So I don’t think a Porsche is a sign of lavish spending. My understanding is he is not going to be a guy that is broke a year after retirement (two of my good friends know him very well and attest to this)
  13. tobi0040
    Yup. He has faded the last two years. His 7+ ERA down the stretch could have been the difference for us. And Jepsen played out of his mind and was due to fall back to earth. You can question whether you wanted to anchor a bunch of fringe players around these two as your studs, on a pen that was 23rd in ERA last year.
  14. tobi0040
    I hope so. But I am getting out of the prediction business, both of when a guy comes up and what he does when he gets there. Been drastically wrong on Meyer, Burdi, Buxton, and 2016 Sano.
  15. tobi0040
    Story for NL ROY is looking like a great pick. He hit his 5th and 6th HR today.
  16. tobi0040
    Yeah, but in the 2008 and 2009 drafts for example, this was before RP's started getting more expensive. You could sign a set up guy for 2 years in the 4-6m range. So I don't get why you use the 27th pick on Carlos Gutierrez for example. Bulock and Tootle 70th and 101st overall. If all players in this range are a crap shoot (which they probably are), I would favor a catcher, SS, or starting pitcher so if they do turn out you get more value, harder and more expensive roles to fill, etc.
  17. tobi0040
    Yeah, a fly to the OF, or a groundout to the right side has the same impact as a sac bunt anyways. I don't have the video but when I watched it, seemed like he was more interested in bringing the third baseman in than taking off to 1B. I could be wrong though.
  18. tobi0040
    Yeah. The Sum of the Twins position players last year was 11.8. Not much more than Mike Trout. And our pitchers were 16. So that assumes a AA team would win about 55 games (83 games - 28 war). So in theory, You could take a AA team and give them Trout, Kershaw, and Harper and they could win 83 games.
  19. tobi0040
    Bird, I agree about the drafting but would contend their draft strategy could have been better. The biggest issue I have is the amount of early picks we have used on relief pitchers. Pretty staggering of you start about 2007. Lots of supplemental, second, third rounders. It is the cheapest position to fill in FA and to date very few have panned out.
  20. tobi0040
    Thrylos, Maybe a happy medium between the number system used and and the exponential system proposed. Here is a list of all time prospect rankings from two years ago. This is hindsight, but I think it is fair list. Several busts were on here. If Alex Rodriguez was a 75 or 80, he is clearly more valuable than the Twins 29th and 30th best prospects ( 2 40's). Or you would rather have Rodriguez and 3 40's over 5 40's or even four 50's. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/11482/top-50-prospects-of-the-draft-era
  21. tobi0040
    Really cool stuff. I think keeping to a teams top 30 makes sense. You will likely get noise trying to measure a teams 30th through 50th best prospect and they rarely pan out anyways. The only suggestion I have is to award more points for players in the 60-70 range. These guys pan out more and are difference-makers. This system suggests two 40's are better than Seager and that is just not a trade the Dodgers consider
  22. tobi0040
    I think the logic is you can find someone to have an .800-.850 OPS and DH. If we gave Quentin those reps this year he may. Or you find some former corner OF that is aging. So the combo of that guy at DH and Sano at 3B is going to yield far more wins than Sano at DH and Plouffe's .720 OPS at 3B.
  23. tobi0040
    If Sano goes from 6 WAR to 3 WAR by moving from 3B to DH, I am not sure how the team wins more. Plouffe had 2.5 WAR last year and is likely declining. So now our 3B and DH have fewer wins than just Sano at 3B. After seeing Sano move around and his general size, I have went from pinning this on the Twins to pinning it on Sano. The belly flop play yesterday, seeing his size, etc. I think the Twins concluded he was not sticking at 3B for more than a year or so and was likely not good there this year anyway. I think they were probably right.
  24. tobi0040
    The other thing I don't get is with 0 outs, why you sac bunt the guy over to 3B. You have three cracks at a single to score him and many times an out moves him over to 3B anyways. I don't give up an out there. It "worked", but I think you lower your odds at a multi run inning.
  25. tobi0040
    Yup. I am starting to believe the Twins have no choice. It is a shame. Take Edgar Martinez. From 90 to 92 he played mostly 3B, had an OPS of .830, .817, and .948 and averaged 6 WAR a season. Then, the so called best DH ever played 12 seasons at DH. His career OPS is .933 and he averaged a WAR of about 3 per season as a DH. He ended his career with only 57 WAR. Quite low for a .312, .418, .515 career. 300 HR, 1,300 BB's, 1,300 RBI's. 8,700 AB's across basically 16 full seasons.
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