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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    My scenario for Meyer was an either, not both. I think Nolasco pushes Pelf to the pen soon. Either Milone implodes OR Nolasco is still hurt and after a few more starts it is clear he is. To me, this reeks of the Scott Baker situation a few years ago. The guy is not right, hasn't been for a long time. Complains and we tell him to pitch through it. Then low and behold he we realize he is hurt.
  2. tobi0040
    I am not going to pay huge attention to ratio's after 15 innings. If Gibson was pitching for the Royals, his LF makes the catch and his pen doesn't let two runners score after he leaves (one on a wild pitch). Scratch that, any other LF makes the catch.
  3. tobi0040
    Gibson's career FIP is 4.18. I keep him around.
  4. tobi0040
    2 Scenario's Nolasco bumps Pelfrey to the pen shortly, which bumps Thielbar or Boyer. In 2 weeks, the odds are good that Milone falls apart or it is clear Nolasco is still hurt and needs something done. Enter Meyer* *assuming he continues to have an idea of where the ball is going.
  5. tobi0040
    Gunn started another thread. Let's combine here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17793-alex-meyer-is-having-a-good-game/
  6. tobi0040
    Agreed. I was going to say 3 in a row. They don't need to be as good as today. Just three in a row without a complete disaster on the BB front. Like 5-7 BB per start.
  7. tobi0040
    5 IP. H. 3 BB. 9 K.
  8. tobi0040
    Meyer is dealing so far today............... 4 IP, 1 H, 2BB, 7 K.
  9. tobi0040
    Can we trade for Trumbo and put him in CF?
  10. tobi0040
    Too bad nobody saw this coming.
  11. tobi0040
    Agreed the Twins deserve some blame here. He is totally exposed in LF. But if he is hot dogging it in the pro's, he does to. By my count, he has had at least three plays now that should have been made and were not. I count at least two more that would have been tough plays, some LF's would have made them but his route and angle gave himself no shot whatsoever. We have only played 13 games. At this pace, he would blow 37 plays and not make another 25 that other guys will make At the end of the day, the Royals LF mkes somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 plays that our LF does not (assuming he does not make 10). That impacts the standings. I just hope when the Twins are evaluating young pitchers, like Gibson, May, and hopefully Meyer they factor in the OF defense and they don't end up sending these guys down because they have a high-ish ERA that is inflated by the OF. Last year Hughes ERA was a run higher than his FIP. Well if the young guys have an FIP in the 4.25 range and an ERA in the 5.25 range, they don't need to go down and work on anything. We need to make the DH playing LF an actual DH.
  12. tobi0040
    Arcia is a DH. Until that happens, he will be an embarrasment in the outfield and start many more 3 run innings.
  13. tobi0040
    We all have different definitions and perceptions of what an "ace" is. So this will always be a very difficult subject to find consensus. My definition: One of the top 20-25 pitchers in baseball. Phil Hughes was an ace last year by that definition. He was 6th in FIP and 5th in WAR. For his career, his ERA is about 3.90 when you back out his innings in the new Yankee stadium, which are clearly an outlier. Is he an ace? It depends on where he goes from here. Does he repeat 2014 or is more of the 3.90 ERA guy, which is more of a #2 or low #3 in my book.
  14. tobi0040
    I prefer the word "earned" to "deserves". As in, Mike Pelfrey deserves a spot in the rotation because he has a contract and he has x innings in the big leagues. It has a legacy or entitlement connotation that doesn't sit well with me. Well, has Pelfrey earned the spot? Is he one of the best five starters we have? Those are different and better questions IMO. As it relates to CF, the issue is we don't have anyone that has earned that spot. We have handed the position to 5-6 players over the last 2-3 years and nobody has earned it, save Danny Santana who we don't view as a long term CF. Buxton has played a total of 11 games above A ball. In the 10 this year he has an OPS of .580. He clearly has rust to shake off from last year. It is nonsensical to promote him now, even with other bad options because you don't want to ruin his confidence and he needs to work through the rust in AA. I think Rosario is actually closer than Buxton. He has played 160 games above A ball. While his OPS of .680 above A ball is not ripping it up, he does have 60 extra base hits in those 160 games and would provide adequete defense. I would like to see his average and OBP rise, but I am also less worried about ruining him long term.
  15. tobi0040
    I usually look at these reports to see how Sano and Buxton did. Any way you could add their stats regardless of if they were a highlight of the game? Would others find this valuable?
  16. tobi0040
    I am guessing if you look at the top 60 prospects, 35 or so were pitchers (MLB.com actually had him at 40 at that point). Assuming 10-15 or so are in AAA and another handful in rookie leagues. He may have been one of the few of the bunch that had ace type potential. For example, Gibson was ranked #34 at one point (BA in 2010). I don't ever remember ace type projections from him.
  17. tobi0040
    Took me a second to get this. It was worth the wait.
  18. tobi0040
    Send him down.
  19. tobi0040
    They could have been in the same OF. But I don't know that Willingham or Arcia in 2014 would have had the Twins in crisis mode of we need to take a SS in AA and make him my CF. I think the move was made in response to really, really bad CF play that with Span we likely don't make. But we will never know. I agree on the combination of assumptions/potential miscalculation regarding Span. The potential contribution from Meyer over the six controllable years was well above the 6-9 WAR Span was going to add to this team (net of the alternative). That was the gamble. Before that trade TR had made comments that teams just don't trade good pitching prospects in AA and AAA. When they get that close they want to hang onto them. So he thought the best upside was in A ball.
  20. tobi0040
    Glad he was able to work out those kinks in the minors and now he is ready.
  21. tobi0040
    I don't really see how Span was a lot of wins better in 2014, unless you are saying we could have had both Santana and Span in the OF (Santana's WAR was actually higher than Spans in 2014). I think the reality is Arcia would have had a full year and we didn't move Willingham until half way through the season. I think we had lingering doubts about Span and his concussion. He missed 90 games in 2013 and another 30 in 2014. The OPS of .687 and .737 his last two years here was not unbelievable. I am guessing that impacted his value at the time. But you won't get me arguing that TR does not undervalue defense. Hard to argue with that one.
  22. tobi0040
    My understanding is MLB puts together a comprehensive list of every major drug out there and determines which has a banned substance in it. I think you would see guys fighting these. Ervin's reaction for example was everyone else's. I didn't knowingly take it but I will serve my sentence.
  23. tobi0040
    We started the discussion based on not making the Span trade and having Span in CF. So I was comparing Span versus what we had. The initial complaint was that we made that trade without having a replacement. My point is the same as your conclusion. Span was a few wins better in 2013 and a wash in 2014. To me, Meyer's upside was and still is worth that risk.
  24. tobi0040
    My guess is the four are linked to the same guy, who sold them stanzanol and said he altered it in a way to fool the test, a la Bosch and Conte. Three of the four are from the Dominican....
  25. tobi0040
    I agree. think it is really important to bring guys up, even for a little period of time. Get the jitter out and see how they stack up an what they need to work on. The 10 games May had for example, I think that is really great for his development going into the off-season.
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