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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    If Sano sticks at 3B, I think a trade of Plouffe is what will happen. Because of the value they provide at 3B (which you outline). The main reason why I think it will be Plouffe that is moved is age and cost. Sano is 22 and he will likely be a productive MLB player all the way through his 5-6 years of control. We could have him before and through his prime. Plouffe is 29 soon. And Plouffe is probably one of the 7-10 best 3B in his prime. Many project Sano as a top 3 or so, with the bat.
  2. tobi0040
    I think the Twins are a new GM away from quantifying the impact of defense to runs, then to wins.
  3. tobi0040
    I think Plouffe would be a great super utility guy, for a few reasons. Arcia is a comlplete liability against lefties, so you swap out his career .601 OPS for Plouffe's .807. And Joe has missed about 170 games over the last four years. And maybe Plouffe's ability to play almost every position in a pinch would allow us to add an actual bat on the bench. Of course you weigh this with what you can get in a trade.
  4. tobi0040
    Yes, he was. And he was really good for a really long time. 17 - # of seasons with more than .800 OPS. 10 - # of seasons with more than .900 OPS 4 - # of seasons with more than 1.000 OPS 7 - # of seasons with more than 40 HR (2 over 50) 9 - # of seasons with more than 5 WAR 3 - # of seasons with more than 8 WAR Career .284 average. .370 OBP. .538 slugging. .907 OPS. 136 OPS +, 630 HR. The crazy part is he missed 400-500 games or so, many in the 32-35 range. He would have had a shot at Ruth's 712. That would have landed him second all time in my book (behind only Aaron).
  5. tobi0040
    Do you think the Twins would give 25-30M over three years to a guy that doesn't play the same position every day? I think the Rays would and I think it may make sense for the Twins if Plouffe can play LF and RF (in addition to 3B and 1B). But I really don't think the Twins would ever do that.
  6. tobi0040
    I live in a world where the Twins aren't paying super utility guy that kind of money. And if they did it would take money away from another area
  7. tobi0040
    I agree completely with this analysis and neither of these outcomes translates to we need to extend the guy now. The last thing you want to do is give him 7-9M a year to be a super utility guy that only plays 120 games.
  8. tobi0040
    Plouffe's offensive numbers represent a top 10 3B. Throw him in LF and they no longer are in that grouping. So the danger is you lock him up at 3B rates and then move him to LF. Basically the same thing we did with Mauer. We paid an elite catcher to move to 1B and be average-ish.
  9. tobi0040
    We need clarity on Sano first. If Sano is our 3B Plouffe could play somewhere else and add value. But it would hurt his overall value to the team. So we should wait on signing him. No need to right now.
  10. tobi0040
    BA's top 50 from 10 days ago. Aiken is 14th! http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/top-50-draft-prospects/
  11. tobi0040
    I think Gardy would be about the last guy the Cubs would hire. They ponied up big time for Maddon, really the opposite of Gardy (Gardy was a free agent at that point).
  12. tobi0040
    I understand what you are saying. They are young for the league in most cases. But we have the second best system in all of baseball and 11 of the guys in our top 20 (by my count) are on this team. At the end of the year most of these guys are going to need good stats to move up the chain and help out the Twins. Those stats should somewhat translate to W-L. So I think this teams record will be a decent proxy for how the minors look. I think Sano and Buxton will shake off the rust and help a ton, but I will watch the record of this team throughout the year. Prospects 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, and 19 from MLB's list. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/prospects/index.jsp?c_id=min
  13. tobi0040
    I think it would really take the stars and moon to align for him to land another manager role. I don't think he is a good fit in todays game.
  14. tobi0040
    I get your logic and the pick would have a ton of risk associated with it. But the upside IMO is likely better than anything left at #6. We need to keep him mind, he is a 6'5 lefty that some scouts said had four legit pitches as an 18 year old. Including a 95 mph fastball, and really good breaking balls and a good change. So even if he backs off that he was starting from a really, really good spot. In my opinion, you gamble a bit and take high upside starters in the draft. Because you need good pitching to win and the draft is the best avenue we have to acquire it. We are never going to sign an ace on the free agent market.
  15. tobi0040
    I am more concerned about the lookouts losing record. I know it is early and hopefully as buxton and Sano pick it up, that reverses. But if the team with half our prospects in a loaded system can't dominate we are in trouble.
  16. tobi0040
    Agreed. Most had him head and shoulders above Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Gordon, Schwarber. A $4M investment here for a potential stud pitcher with six years of control seems like a good gamble. If the medicals are terrible and/or we think someone there has similar upside, then no obviously.
  17. tobi0040
    I get the overall point. But the 6th pick has much less of an 80% shot of having the career of Ervin. You can go back and look at past drafts and sometimes not even remember the names of guys in the top 10.
  18. tobi0040
    Someone also made the comment of hearing what scouts have to say. Especially with whispers of him struggling with breaking balls. He may be able to put up a good overall line in AA, but if scouts say he is having a tough time with the few pitchers in AA that have big league breaking balls.....then the overall line doesn't mean a ton. He is going to see breaking ball after breaking ball in the big leagues. I think the guy is going to be really good eventually. Let's just not rush it.
  19. tobi0040
    I would also say the Twins are more risk averse than other teams. Personally, I don't know that we will pay a guy $4M that may need surgery.
  20. tobi0040
    I just did the same thing for pitchers. It was actually lower. 22.19 for average and 22.3 for median. I excluded Yu Darvish's debut age in those calcs. Name WAR Debut Age 1 Clayton Kershaw 14.7 20.2 2 Felix Hernandez 11.7 19.3 3 Adam Wainwright 11.4 24 4 Max Scherzer 11.1 23.6 5 David Price 10.6 23 6 Corey Kluber 10 25.4 7 Chris Sale 9.9 21 8 Jon Lester 9.1 21.3 9 Jordan Zimmermann 9 22.9 10 Anibal Sanchez 9 22.3 11 Cole Hamels 8.8 22.3 12 Jose Quintana 8.3 23.3 13 Madison Bumgarner 8.1 20.1 14 Yu Darvish 8.1 25.7 15 Stephen Strasburg 7.8 21.9 Average 22.19 Median 22.3
  21. tobi0040
    I would say I was also stunned at some of the names. Ben Zobrist? I don't know that he would have been in the first 50 guys I named.
  22. tobi0040
    Lot of nuances with this data. I would suggest that starting with players that were top prospects or really good 1-2 yeas in and then had it, and following them. You have so many guys on the fringe or in AAA with some experience. If they have the surgery and don't return to the big leagues, than I don't think it applies. Same with guys that are in their mid 30's and have it, then retire because they don't want to go through it.
  23. tobi0040
    I looked at Fangraphs and tallied up the top 15 position players by WAR from 2013 and 2014. The average debut age is 22.7, median 22.66. So as many are after 22 than before. I have to admit this is an earler debut age than I would have thought (granted pitchers are probably a little later). In the case of Buxton, a debut of this year would be 21 with a throw away year. He certanly will debut before he is 23. Player Debut Age Mike Trout 19.95 Andrew McCutchen 22.66 Josh Donaldson 24.4 Carlos Gomez 21.5 Miguel Cabrera 20.1 Matt Carpenter 25.5 Robinson Cano 22.6 Ben Zobrist 25.1 Adrian Beltre 19.2 Paul Goldschmidt 23.9 Buster Posey 22.5 Jose Bautista 23.5 Alex Gordon 23.2 Evan Longoria 22.5 Hunter Pence 24 Average 22.70 Median 22.66
  24. tobi0040
    I am just speaking to the just wait and hope it gets better strategy, pre-TJ
  25. tobi0040
    True, but that is only part of it. The other part is the worry that they won't be as good after TJ. In the case of the guys mentioned....they are still really good and even after TJ get drafted higher in a re-draft. The other thing is those other teams wasted a year and a half of control in the cheap years on these guys while they rehabbed (Stras, Harvey, and Liriano to name a few). That would not happen in the case of Aiken.
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