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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    More shifting, platooning, bringing Perk in the 8th inning. I also think it has gone un-noticed, but Arcia was sat a few games even prior to the injury (guessing Molitor is fed up with the defense). I don't think Gardy would have done any of these things. Completely agree with Die Hard, very hard to quantify these things. But I think they have helped.
  2. tobi0040
    I don't recall him throwing 95. Here are his average fastballs by year: 2008 - 91.2 2009 - 90.6 2010 - 90.8 2011 - 89.7 2012 - 90.4 Agree with your conclusion. Between his fastball and cutter he was throwing a fastball 70+ percent of the time. His career swing and miss rate was 5.3%. Even with the low k's, Gibson's career is 8.3%.
  3. tobi0040
    Blackburn's career average fastball was 90.6. But the biggest thing is the other stuff. I think Gibson's slider and now change are better than Blackburn's non-fastball.
  4. tobi0040
    Agreed. I think the Twins have two things going for us right now. Really good, cheap prospects and some payroll wiggle room. If we traded, say Sano and Berrios for Cole Hamels I think you kind of use up both assets that we have for one player.
  5. tobi0040
    Gibson's sinkng fastball is usually 91-94, average this year is 91.8.
  6. tobi0040
    I think Gibson can be a 2 or 3 and he could end up being our 4th best pitcher. Controlled through 31. I think he is a good piece moving forward.
  7. tobi0040
    Agreed that you can't plan around a Howard or Trout like entrance to the big leagues (MVP's early on). But if Trevor Plouffe is worth $4.8M in arb2, then I think Buxton could be worth $7-8M without setting the world on fire in arb4. And I think if you are his agent that amount goes almost dollar for dollar to any extension they sign, along with the potential risk of him being north of $10M. I guess you can put me in the camp that he is not up before the deadline.
  8. tobi0040
    I think labelling a starter by a number is a bit arbitrary, since nobody agrees on the scale. But for simplicity sake, he was in the 42nd percentile in basically his rookie year. By definiition, that would be on the border of a #3 or #4 starter (20-40th percentile). You and I seem to disagree on if he will improve from that point. I think he will. I have already seen his pitches move more and him mix in a pretty solid change-up. But we will have to let that part go. As far as him being up late, he was a few starts from being up at 24, which is pretty early for a college player. Then he had TJ.
  9. tobi0040
    Nonsense, on pace for and a lock for 89.37 wins.
  10. tobi0040
    I highly doubt his peak ERA will be the 4.66 he had last year. It was an interesting read. But the data set of a pitcher starting his career at 21 does not really apply to Gibson. The FIP on the graph was lower than first six years of the pitchers career than it was in his first year (pink line). Now they are concluding that is because that is when the fastball starts the velocity decline. It could also be that the pitcher has a better feel for getting hitters out once they gain experience. I see a trade off between these two. A 39 year old pitchers fastball velo decline will more than offset his age/experience for example.
  11. tobi0040
    Using the same 100 IP, he was 43rd among the 74 AL Pitchers. About middle of the pack (42nd percentile) in the toughest league in effectively his rookie year. Most pitchers have careers that are much better than their rookie year.
  12. tobi0040
    Here is my understanding of the various deadlines. If true, I think it would cost the Twins way more than a few million. If I have this correct, we won't see Buxton until the second deadline passes. The first deadline, 12 days into the season gives the team an additional year of control (7 years instead of 6). In the case of Bryant, the Cubs get an additional year of control. They pushed his free agency off a year. The second deadline, usually about mid June takes the one additional year and makes it an arbitration year instead of a rookie year. Promote before second deadline, 500k, 500k, 500k, arb 1, arb 2, arb 3, arb 4. Promote after second deadline, 500k, 500k, 500k, 500k, arb 1, arb 2, arb 3. Swapping a fourth year of arbitration for a $500K deal could be $10M. Plouffe is near $5M now I think in arb 2. Ryan Howard was over $10M years ago. Papelbon avoided arbitration one year at $12M. Even if we want to extend him well prior to that, the what he could make without the extension would certainly be a negotiation point.
  13. tobi0040
    HIs HR/9 numbers over the last two years, .6 and .5 are very, very good. That is over 200 IP.
  14. tobi0040
    Wrong team! The Pirates did a very similar thing with Polanco though. Just not quite as obvious.
  15. tobi0040
    The Twins have the pieces to get Cole Hamels. But we are not trading Buxton or Sano for him.
  16. tobi0040
    To question #2. Yes. Danny Santana won't be a center piece for Hamels. And I think Nolasco has negative value right now.
  17. tobi0040
    You can throw the Pirates in there too. Last spring, they offered Springer a 7 year deal prior to making his debut and when he rejected the deal, they sent him to AAA. Most believe he would have made the team had he signed. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24493001/report-george-springer-rejects-seven-year-23-million-offer-from-astros
  18. tobi0040
    Fangraphs has only 66 qualified starters with an ERA better than 4.00 last year. Only 29 of those were in the AL. If you have 75 starters in the AL he would be in the 62nd percentile at a 4.00. I also don't understand why an ERA of 4.00 is optimistic. His career FIP is 4.17 in his first 250 innings.
  19. tobi0040
    He is on pace for 1 HR every three starts and about 3 total XBH per start. 55-60% ground balls, most don't sneak through. It will take hits in bunches to score multiple runs off him and he is giving up less than one hit an inning. So I think we are over-emphasizing k's here. My personal take here....but the pitch to contact guys we have had in the past are much different than Gibson. He is throwing 91-94 with some movement on his fastball. It sinks. And his slider has a lot of movement too. His stuff is better than the guys we have been accustomed to, but I think he is being grouped in with that bunch based on one stat. But the guy is missing the barrell of the bat.
  20. tobi0040
    Especially when you have a track record of over 200 IP and an FIP of 4.18
  21. tobi0040
    His ERA is 2.97. It will end the year higher than that. No doubt. But I think he can be around or sub 4.00
  22. tobi0040
    These are valid points, specifically about the breaking ball. We need our scouts to confirm that he won't be exposed against major league breaking balls.
  23. tobi0040
    I think you can look at this two ways. On the one hand, if he continues to get only 2 K per 9 innings the luck will run out. The flipside, nobody is making good contact on his pitches and he is getting a lot of ground balls. So if that keeps up he will be just fine. Maybe not 2.97 ERA, but he will have a good year. His fastball and slider move enough to make awkward contact, but hitter are getting a piece of them. He seems to miss the strike zone on the slider so pitchers don't offer at it a ton. And the change up looks really good, not a swing and miss pitch yet, but it seems to confuse hitters and keep them off balance. The stats tell me he has only given up 2 HR in 36 innings. In his last four starts (26 IP), he has only given up 17 hits and has GB rates of 55%, 61%, 59%, and 56%. The double plays should continue with those GB rates. Only 10 extra base hits (1 HR and 9 2B). FIP and xFIP are heavily skewed towards strike out pitchers and punishes guys that get weak contact. Mariano Rivera had a fair amount of K's, but he is the poster boy for weak contact. His FIP is more than a half a run worse than his career ERA. Brandon Webb was an extreme ground ball guy, his FIP was .23 higher than his ERA.
  24. tobi0040
    I think this statement needs a caveat. Not too long ago, they were regarded as the cheapest and/or ownership group with very little integrity and as of lately have made decisions that counter that reputation. Remember 2012 when he basically traded every player on his team making more than the minimum.
  25. tobi0040
    Now that you mention that. He needs to be up by June 6.
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