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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I guess I don't get the contract at all. His numbers to date are not league average. I know he is young. But now that you have given him $22M a year, what is your upside? According to Cot's, the only pitchers that make more annually are: Kershaw, Max, Lester, Verlander, Felix, Greinke, CC, Lee, and Hamels. Porcello has a long way to be in this club. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/
  2. tobi0040
    ERA+ by year: 114 85 87 93 96 116 Career 98. Last year he had career years in BABIP, HR/9, and LOB%. He gave up 4% fewer hits compared to his BABIP and stranded another 3.6% of his runners. He saw a 16% reduction in his HR to FB rate.
  3. tobi0040
    Pretty interesting. The market has moved up in such a way that guys with effectively league average numbers in some cases, Porcello, Bailey, etc. are 5-100 guys. Cole looks like a real steal because he is hand down better than these guys.
  4. tobi0040
    I think Cole's deal adds value to him rather than brings his value down. Since he signed that deal, Kershaw signed for over $30M. Max signed for $30M. Verlander and Felix signed 7 year deals in the $27M range. Heck, Rick Porcello and his 4.30 career ERA signed almost the same deal that Cole Hamels has (4-80+). Any deal for Cole at this point is going to revolve around a top prospect in return. I don't think they are going to be blown away by quantity.
  5. tobi0040
    I think the NBA would be more competitive than you think as well. Wiggins is averaging 16.5 points a game. Jabari Parker was averaging 13. Nerlins Noel is averging 10 points and almost 2 steals and 2 blocks a game. These guys are all rookies. So you put Towns, Okafor, and Kaminskey on the front line and I think they are somewhat competitive against the Timberwolves or Knicks. They don't win a 7 game series, but i think they sneak a win here or there and play competitive games.
  6. tobi0040
    16-4 seems off to me. That would mean the Twins win 128-34 over the course of a season. If a "replacement player" is a player from AA, that would mean the Twins current roster has 94 WAR on it (without adjusting for this being a really good AA team).
  7. tobi0040
    This year is not going to be fair. This is essentially an all-star team.
  8. tobi0040
    We don't know. No doubt about that. My statement was based on the course of the next year. But I think you are underestimating how low the bar is in certain instances. Like Jordan Schafer. He has had 1,225 at bats across six years and has racked up an OPS of .621. The consensus top 1-2 prospect in the game who is sitting in AA should be able to exceed that production right now. If he can't exceed that production, he is wildly over-rated. Plouffe vs. Sano. The last three years tells me Plouffe is a .250, 15-20 HR, 40-50 BB guy. His OPS should be around .700 to .750 (career .722). I think Sano would hit .230 and likely end up with more HR's and BB's given his profile, so I think his OPS ends up higher than Plouffe's. Defensively, no doubt Plouffe is better. And I think you will see over the course of the year, 1-2 starters from AAA bump guys off the rotation and 2-4 bullpen guys as well.
  9. tobi0040
    I think we tend to agree in most cases. Just not this one! I am all for more drug testing, but don't see any risk whatsoever to this incentifying teams to somehow rig a drug test. I just don't see a team attempting that. If one ever did, they would find it extremely difficult to ever attract another free agent. So I guess I don't much care that teams have an incentive here You make a fair point about one failed test doesn't mean his entire career is a lie. But I would rather a team make the call based on the situation at hand. In this case the twins could elect to opt out or keep the existing deal. i think the current rules amount to a crapshoot for teams. It impacts teams and non cheating players negatively, while providing an incentive to players to cheat, as contracts are irrevocable. FWIW, I also think players that lie about their age should be penalized harshly. If a team gives a 27 year old a 5 year deal and then find out he is 29, they should have the option of voiding the last two years of the deal as they thought they were getting ages 27 thru 32. Not 29 thru 34 At the end of the day a 16 year old that is really 18 is taking the job and livelihood away from a legitimate 16 year old. similarly and less dramatic, Ervin likely cost someone money this offseason. Roster spots are fixed and payrolls are probably relatively fixed as well.
  10. tobi0040
    I view this as a very black and white thing. You go to a job interview and lie about your experience, they can fire you later if they find out. George O'Leary comes to mind. The guy said he had a degree that he did not have. Ervin Santana's stats are a lie. He is not who we spent $50M on. He was "durable" because he was cheating. He didn't lose velocity as games progressed, as he aged, etc. becase his body was artificially healing better than everyone else. Those stats are a lie as well. The risk of losing money should be on the player that ponders cheating, and not just the lost money during the suspension. Not the team. The teams don't know who is cheating or not, players that cheat know they are cheating.
  11. tobi0040
    Here is the issue for me. What Ervin tested positive for only stays in the system for 3 weeks. So in this scenario you can take it every off-season to help your arm and body recover (what i suspect he was doing) and then simply not take it 3 weeks before you sign a deal and have a test.
  12. tobi0040
    The testing authority is independent from the team though. So it would be quite the conspiricy IMO for a team to go out and get a player to fail a test. Not to mention teams would likely influence the other way if they could (not wanting say, Ryan Braun to test positive and miss 80 games). To my knowledge no team has been accused of trying to hide a falied test. They usually find out about the same time the rest of us do. If you limit it to PED's versus drugs of abuse I would be 100% for it. GM's and owners have tough enough jobs as it is drafting and signing the right guys. They see a guy, make a huge investment like Ervin Santana based on his numbers and performance he put up in the past that was probably aided by illegal drugs. One of the things that stood out for the Twins was his durability. Well, we aren't going to get that durability. The margin for error is very low for teams like the Twins. We can't afford 5 year deals that are a total sham. Baseball should try and protect their product. Not to mention, voiding these deals would be a deterrent for the scumbags to begin with.
  13. tobi0040
    I agree completely. I would like to see the players to band together on this and push the union for rights for teams to void these deals in the event of a failed test (PED only). After all it is the non-cheating players that are hurt the most by cheaters.
  14. tobi0040
    I don't know about soundly defeated. I think the minor bullpen is clearly superior. Without question. Sano would put up better numbers than Plouffe this year. No disrespect to Plouffe. I think Sano hits more HR and takes more walks. Given that Plouffe has never been an OBP guy, I think Sano plays better. Buxton would put up better numbers than Schafter this year. May would put up better numbers than Pelfrey this year. Meyer or Berrios could put up better numbers than Milone this year. That is several rosters spots.
  15. tobi0040
    I don't know about soundly defeated. I think the minor bullpen is clearly superior. Without question. Sano would put up better numbers than Plouffe this year. No disrespect to Plouffe. I think Sano hits more HR and takes more walks. Given that Plouffe has never been an OBP guy, I think Sano plays better. Buxton would put up better numbers than Schafter this year. May would put up better numbers than Pelfrey this year. Meyer or Berrios could put up better numbers than Milone this year. That is several rosters spots.
  16. tobi0040
    If you made an all star team among AA and AAA, I think you can assemble a roster that at least competes with the Twins. The pen is hands down better. Better outfield. Better at 3B. A wash at a few other positions. Better at 2/5 of the rotation. Rotation Berrios, May, Mayer, Wheeler, and Rogers. Pen Burdi, Reed, Jones, Achter, Oliveros, Pressly, and Tonkin Outfield Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler DH Hicks INF Sano, Polanco, Levi, Hicks DH Walker Catcher Pinto/Turner
  17. tobi0040
    That makes sense, to line up May with the starts of Pelfrey and Milone. Milone will go Friday and Pelfrey Saturday, which would line up with Rochesters games 2 and 3.
  18. tobi0040
    When do they start and hat is the pitcher lineup?
  19. tobi0040
    When doctors prescribe you or I steriods, they are typically a measured dose, for a specific instance (like you twisting your knee) , and for a short period of time. Not to mention most are illegal unless prescribed by a doctor. When an MLB player seeks these, very few of these safeguards exist. And I think that it is about an edge. So if Wistrol was legal, the Ervin Santana's of the world would seek something that works harder and is more effective than the Wistrol everyone else is using
  20. tobi0040
    I am sure a reasonable explanation for this exists. For instance, maybe Ervin does not like taking pills. So one day his wife is crushing up his legal medication and his dogs Wistrol into applesauce, and then simply mixes up the applesauce. If I had a dollar every time I took ate a hot dog from the fridge and it had a heart worm pill inside it....
  21. tobi0040
    jimmer, In the two innings I watched last night, the announcers talked a great deal about how big the strike zone was all game and for both sides.
  22. tobi0040
    Can anyone explain why pelfrey was picked over May? The twins know may is better and I thought we threw in the towel on pelfrey in the rotation.
  23. tobi0040
    Nothing will change unless teams have the option to void a contract after a failed test And why shouldn't the twins have this option? We signed a guy because we thought he was something he wasn't.
  24. tobi0040
    Two years in a row. Right before the season my optimism gets a nice kick in the junk (Sano last year).
  25. tobi0040
    I can't rule out a spot start where a guy is a late scratch or a double header. But I think Milone had a head start for the reasons you mentioned. But I think they want Meyer in the rotation and had he showed he was clearly the bettter pitcher it was his job. I don't think you trade for Alex Meyer just to keep him in AAA (I know you are not saying that). But it is up to him now. He needs to show some fastball control.
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