Teflon

Will only depend on Sano staying healthy, striking out about 30% less and having other teams align their defenses as if there were no tendencies on him yet.

Miguel Sano had a freakishly high (unduplicatable) .396 batting average on balls in play last year (Babe Ruth's career BABIP was .340) but Sano still only managed to hit .269 because he struck out 118 times (!) in 80 games. It's hard to envision an MVP season for Sano with a BABIP that is sure to drop 50-75 points coupled with 200+ strike outs while also trying to learn a new position.

Mauer has put up a .273/.342/.455 slash line in Spring Training so far and has only struck out 3 times in 38 at-bats. While the BA and OBP aren't vintage Mauer numbers, an .OPS returning to .800 along with the lower K rate have been encouraging. To any of TD's visitors to Fort Myers this spring - do you get the impression that Joe is looking more like his old self or am I reading too much into this? (Also realizing there are probably not as many "Mauer Shifts" put on by opposing D's in spring games)

We saw Rosario's batting average on balls in play fall from the Kirby Puckett like levels he put up through July (.360) to numbers closer to league average (.300) in August and September as defenses and pitchers became more familiar with him. Rosario would need to put a LOT more balls in play in his at bats (that is to say strike out a LOT less) for there not to be a fall-off from last year's performance - let alone the improvement you're anticipating. I love watching Rosario play. His triples are a thing of beauty and he is a mensch on defense. I really hope he can cut down on his K's enough to stay an everyday player.

Little-known fact - Verne Ruhle, pictured on your rookie prospect card with Minnesotan Paul Siebert, surrendered the only home run Tom Kelly hit in his big league career. (5/26/1975)

Sorry. I should have said David LaRoche or his son - or his son's son. Edit - I forgot to ask if Ricky Nolasco's son hangs around the Twins clubhouse much.

Fun article. Pitch to contact was a much better concept with Jaques Jones, Matt Lawton, and a young Torii Hunter in the outfield to catch Radke's offerings than it was with Delmon Young, Ryan Doumit or Chris Parmelee to catch Nick Blackburn's.

Nothing against Dave LaRoche or his son, but you can see how this would be a problem, can't you? The White Sox either have to have a double standard for who's allowed to hang around in the clubhouse (Okay to Dave's kid, No to 'Turtle' from Melky's posse) or else allow the same kind of access to anybody the other players want with them as well.

and Dave Goltz doesn't hold a barbecue.

I'm afraid that if Buxton improves too much the Twins will trade him for a mediocre National League pitcher.

People - baseball contracts are guaranteed. This is a pointless topic unless you have a time machine - and then only pertinent if you've exhausted all the other time-machine related quests like killing Hitler and buying up Apple stock.

in 2013, Nolasco's most frequent pitch was a very good slider that induced a lot of ground balls and swings and misses. (Fangraphs) After coming to the Twins in 2014, either due to injury or very bad advice, his most frequently used pitch has been a below-average four-seam fastball hitters generally tee-up - although his slider was still effective when he was able to throw it. If Nolasco is able to throw his slider again, he could be okay. If not, he has no value over replacement pitching.

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2010/11/19/9ULHEmQ8.jpg My best comparison to successful outfield with a similar sized player to Sano would be the Pittsburgh Pirates when Dave Parker was in right. Parker was listed at 6-5 230 but was perceived to be larger. (Photo above suggests the same) Parker won 3 consecutive Gold Gloves because he had a deadly howitzer arm and, with Omar Moreno covering more area than Verizon in center, didn't have to have exceptional wheels. (We also have one of those Moreno-like center fielders, come to think of it.) Sano only needs to make sound decisions and accurate throws out there. (Be sort of an anti-Oswaldo Arcia) and this could work, fine. Not the ideal asthetic, I agree, but serviceable. What you DON'T want is for your center fielder to also have to cover ground to the other side - which he won't have to with Rosario or Kepler.

Batting orders are sort of an OCD thing. Aside from not making it too inviting to pitch around a good hitter and to limit the potential for too many consecutive lefty-lefty or righty-righty advantages when the opponent goes to the bullpen, the main consideration is really just to get your most productive hitters (runs created or OPS or whatever) the most at-bats - not some order that produces a perfect 1 through 9 aesthetic. (The Twins scored just as many third and fourth inning runs as first inning runs last year.) Sano needs to be in the top three. Mauer not in the top three. Go from there.

The return on investment to an owner of a professional sports franchise isn't derived from the bottom line of the year-to-year operations but in the obscene return on investment in the subsequent sale of the franchise. The average MLB team is worth 1.2 billion dollars. The Twins are probably worth a little less than that- say 900 million. Considering Carl Pohlad paid Calvin Griffith $32 million for controlling interest in 1984 - which correcting for inflation would still only be about $73 million - means that the Twins have earned the Pohlads a 1200% return. The Pohlads also received a (mostly) publicly-funded stadium which coincidentally sits in the middle of a bunch of property they own. It's hard for me to look at the Twins and not see the franchise as a diamond-encrusted golden hot dog stand that gets free government surplus buns, buys day-old wieners and charges customers $2 for a mustard packet. This is why rich people are rich, I guess.

Whoever was influencing player decisions in 2015 was doing something correctly. The Twins gave up 77 fewer runs in 2015 than in 2014 which is why they improved 13 wins. On defense, four players had defensive wins above replacement values of minus 1 or worse in 2014. Of those, only Oswaldo Arcia was back with the club in 2015 and he didn't come close to playing enough to be his usual calamity in the outfield. Result - overall defensive wins above replacement for the Twins improved 5 games. On the pitching mound, Twins pitchers get credit for the remaining 8 additional wins as Ervin Santana,and Kevin Jepsen were acquired, Kyle Gibson's role increased, Tyler Duffy emerged, and Trevor May, Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey pitched more effectively. Also, Kevin Correia, Anthony Swarzak, and Sam Deduno passed into Twins history and pure good luck limited Ricky Nolasco to only 37 innings.

http://www.baseballessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ab90a0a11eaa73fd83ed1eae905baae4.jpg Ron Gardenhire spent a quiet 2015 away baseball with the only significant mention of his name being as a possible replacement in Detroit when rumors surfaced about Brad Ausmus being fired. When Gardy and the Twins parted ways, he owned a 1068-1039 record, although his career was really two distinct chapters - the first 9 years in which his teams were 147 games over .500 and the last 4 years in which his teams were 118 under. As baseball becomes more and more focused on analytical methods to augment traditional scouting and slowly rewrites it official "book" does Gardenhire still garner interest as a potential big league manager?

The most pragmatic solution would be to have somebody other than Mauer at 1B in 2016 - preferably Park. Sano then plays DH where his defense and body mass index isn't an issue, Plouffe stays at 3B where he's become serviceable, Rosario and Buxton man left and center while right could go to anyone who can a.) expediently get to balls hit out there and b.) bat .260 with 10 HRs to account for the loss of Mauer's current production. (Actually Max Kepler is probably there now) Too bad that Mauer's contract is such a detriment to putting together a better lineup with this group of players- although the Twins front office could have helped matters by not acquiring more square pegs when they have round holes.

Speaking metaphorically, while having a smaller leak in the bottom of the boat is a better option than a bigger one - having no leak should actually be the design.

If Mauer would have would have played from 2001 to 2004 at FSU he would have been in the 2005 graduating class of QBs that featured Alex Smith from Utah, Aaron Rodgers from Cal and Jason Campbell from Auburn as first round NFL selections. Easy to imagine Mauer beating out the likes of Adrian McPherson and Chris Rix at FSU and being at least as good a draft prospect as Jason Campbell who was taken 25th overall by the Redskins.

Of course this raises the question of whether he'll be shown in sunglasses on his Hall of Fame plaque. I was originally 50-50 on whether the beard would be present, but now with the shades, my guess if that his Cooperstown image will be sporting the full "Walker Texas Ranger" look. http://img.ifcdn.com/images/025795829d8351cb128b3192fd6a263ad2240f17d5ac61fad619f91aed89870d_1.jpg

Wasn't Byung Ho Park a Gold Glove winner in Korea? Why wouldn't he start ahead of Mauer at 1B on an all-defensive Twins team?

Or was the Quentin signing really a clever ploy to dissuade the St. Louis Cardinals from bothering to hack the Twins scouting data?

Thanks for your comment, Willi and for posting the video from the 1975 World Series. (It was good to hear a snippet of Curt Gowdy, too.) There's a really good SABR biography of Luis Tiant at the link below that also describes Tiant's reunion with his parents in 1975 after 14 years of separation: http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/2212deaf

http://www.clevescene.com/images/blogimages/2009/04/29/1241034084-tiant.jpg 1968 was a pinnacle of pitching in the Major Leagues. Denny McLain won 31 games for the Tigers and Bob Gibson compiled a legendary 1.12 ERA for the Cardinals while throwing 13 shutouts. Easy to miss when browsing through the performances from that year was a Cleveland pitcher who went 21-9 with a 1.60 ERA, 264 strikeouts and only 152 hits allowed in 258 innings. When seen today, those numbers could easily be mistaken for something from the back of a Sandy Koufax baseball card - but those impressive pitching results didn’t belong to a Brooklyn-born lefty but a Cuban born right-hander named Luis Tiant. When Castro took control of Cuba, Luis was a 19-year old playing in the Mexican League. Being outside the country when the island was seized meant he could continue his career in baseball but also meant that he would not be able to return to his homeland or see his family again for many years. Tiant was signed by the Indians organization and pitched in the minors until 1964 when his 15-1 record for the Portland Beavers of the Pacific Coast League made it clear that the 23-year-old Tiant was ready for the big leagues. (Tommy John and Sudden Sam McDowell were also on that Portland pitching staff and would join Tiant with the Indians that year) Luis pitched in 19 games for Cleveland in the second half of the 1964 season making 16 starts and going 10-4. Over the next three seasons with Cleveland, Tiant was only 35-31 but led the American League in shutouts in 1966 and in strikeouts per 9 in 1967. In 1968, it all came together for Tiant. After a slow start to the season (1-2) Tiant shut out the next four opponents in succession, including a three-hitter against the Twins on May 19th. By the end of June, he was 12-5. The first start for Luis in July would be at home against Jim Merritt and the Twins. Merrit would be tough that day, limiting the Tribe to no runs and only 4 hits over 9 innings. Tiant, however, was masterful that day. He kept the Twins off the scoreboard for 9 innings as well, striking out 16. In the 10th, Rich Reese led off with a double to right for the Twins and Frank Quilici sacrificed him to third, reaching first base safely on a fielder’s choice. Tiant struck out the next batter, catcher Johnny Roseboro. Twins manager Cal Ermer sent in Rich Rollins to pinch hit for shortstop Jackie Hernandez. Tiant struck out Rollins. Jim Merritt, the pitcher, was due up next and Ermer chose not to pinch hit. Merritt had been impossible to solve for Cleveland that day and Ermer wanted to have him for the 10th. Tiant struck out Merritt. Tiant had come up with three strikeouts in the tenth to keep a shutout in order after having a runner at third with no outs. Merrit took the mound for the bottom of the 10th. Indians left fielder Lou Johnson led off with a single and took second on shortstop Cesar Tovar’s miscue on the play. (Tovar had played at third base all day and had just moved to short after Ermer pinch hit Rollins for Hernandez.) The next batter for Cleveland was catcher Joe Azcue who singled in Johnson to win the game. Tiant had a 10-inning shutout with 19 strikeouts. Luis continued to pitch great through July, improving his record to 17-6. August was a different story, Tiant struggled. He lost three starts and pitched in three no-decisions. After pitching a complete game on August 10th, he made 5 consecutive early exits, the last three all being less than 6-inning efforts. On September 9th, Luis Tiant took the mound at Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington looking for his 20th win. He would once again match up against Jim Merritt. Minnesota got on the scoreboard early as thirdbaseman Graig Nettles homered in the bottom of the first. That would be all the scoring for the Twins, however, as Tiant only surrendered four more hits and struck out 16. Cleveland had no problems with Merritt this time around and won handily, 6-1. After picking up his 20th win, Tiant was shelved by the Indians for 12 days before making a two-inning relief appearance against the Angels. Following that, Tiant made one last start on September 25th. It was a gem – a 3-0 blanking of the Yankees in the Bronx although barely 5,000 were on hand to see it. Tiant held the Yankees to a single hit that afternoon (Mickey Mantle) and struck out 11. In looking back on Luis Tiant’s 1968 season, he led the American League in ERA, shutouts, and fewest hits per 9 innings. He was third in strikeouts behind his Portland/Cleveland teammate Sam McDowell and the Tigers’ Denny McLain. (Denny McLain took home both the Cy Young and MVP awards.) When applying newer metrics, Tiant was clearly the best starting pitcher his league, however, leading the AL in Adjusted Pitching Wins, Base-Out Runs Saved, Win Probability Added, and Fielding Independent Pitching.