TwinsTerritory

I don't think there's any doubt he's better than Berrios, but if the Twins are serious about winning a championship you need Berrios and another "ace". Plus Berrios is hopefully going to be around for a lot longer than 3 years.

I just posted on the Shelby Miller topic about the same article. This is definitely something the Twins should consider if they could get him for that package of players, but I think the Marlins would want more (maybe Kepler, Gordon, and Stewart). I don't think this happens because there are too many risks with Fernandez: *He's already had a couple arm injuries, including Tommy John *It sounds like he may be a major malcontent, which isn't something the Twins seem to be willing to deal with *He's a Boras client, so you get him for 3 years, but there won't be a contract extension and it's very unlikely the Twins could resign him as a free agent Maybe if there willing to reunite with Ricky

Someone mentioned Jose Fernandez above and then I saw this on ESPN this morning: "4. Minnesota Twins No, you're not getting Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton, but could the Twins add Fernandez to go alongside Jose Berrios, who will debut early in 2016, to finally give them some strikeout arms in the rotation? If the Twins aren't willing to part with those three guys, a deal would have to start with outfielder/first baseman Max Kepler, who hit .322/.416/.531 at Double-A. Shortstop Nick Gordon, Minnesota's first-round pick in 2014, could be reunited with his older brother. Right-hander Kohl Stewart, another former first-round pick, didn't produce big numbers in Class A, but he's the kind of power arm the Marlins like to take chances on." This was an article on trade fits for Fernandez. Here is one time we shouldn't have to argue about whether the pitcher is an "ace" or not. A healthy Fernandez is one of the 5-10 best pitchers in the game. Like Miller, he also has 3 years of team control left. He's a Boras client, so there is very little chance of a contract extension before free agency (and almost no chance of resigning him as a FA). Would you be willing to part with Kepler, Stewart, and two top 30 prospects to rent Fernandez for 3 years?

If that is the asking price, I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'm guessing the Braves are looking for more than that. I might be way off, but I was thinking it would be more like a top 5 prospect and two other top 25 prospects. Maybe something headlined by Kepler.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts on trading for Shelby Miller. He's not necessarily an ace, but he's probably as close as the Twins could get this offseason w/o shelling out $150M. Miller begins arbitration this year, so he is under team control until 2019. The Braves appear to be looking for prospects so they can contend in their new stadium. Is this something the Twins should consider? What would a fair trade look like?

If Trevor Plouffe is a Minnesota Twin in April, I'm really interested to see how creative Paul Molitor can be. Is he more Ron Gardenhire or Joe Maddon? Below are lists showing potential Twins starts by position and total season starts (ignoring injuries since they will happen, but are impossible to predict). Could this work? Would Molitor try to make it work? These lists make a bunch of HUGE assumptions, but here are some of the biggest: *Sano can play palatable OF defense (better than Kyle Schwarber) *Park can hit major league pitching (over .250 with power) *Buxton is ready to hit major league pitching from game 1 *Arcia and Santana are better than last year, but probably not as good as they were in 2014 Catcher--Suzuki 81, Murphy 81 First Base--Mauer 120, Park 42 Second Base--Dozier 150, Santana 12 Shortstop--Escobar 130, Nunez 16, Santana 16 Third Base--Plouffe 130, Sano 32 Left Field--Rosario 140, Arcia 20, Nunez 2 Center Field--Buxton 140, Santana 22 Right Field--Sano 100, Arcia 50, Santana 12 Designated Hitter--Park 100, Mauer 20, Sano 20, Plouffe 10, Arcia 10, Dozier 2 Total Games Started Sano 152 Dozier 152 Plouffe 142 Park 142 Mauer 140 Buxton 140 Rosario 140 Escobar 130 Suzuki 81 Murphy 81 Arcia 80 Santana 62 Nunez 18

My idea of where to go next if I'm Terry Ryan. Using some estimates this would put the payroll at about $112 million (not including the Park posting fee or the cash from the Padres). #1--Trade Nolasco to SD for Melvin Upton Jr., Brandon Maurer, and cash ($3M) Both teams dump bad contracts that don't fit on their roster and the Twins pick up a reliever for taking on more money. #2--Trade Plouffe to LAA for Jose Alvarez, Joe Gatto, and a low level prospect This assumes TR is bluffing about Sano playing outfield. Twins get a solid lefty for the pen and one of the Angels top SP prospects #3--sign Shawn Kelley to a 3/$13.5M contract Has put together a nice run and is a little cheaper than the big RP names on the FA market Opening Day Roster Lineup 1. Buxton CF 2. Mauer 1B 3. Sano 3B 4. Dozier 2B 5. Park DH 6. Rosario LF 7. Arcia RF 8. Escobar SS 9. Murphy C Bench Suzuki C Upton OF Santana UTL Nunez UTL Rotation 1. Santana 2. Hughes 3. Gibson 4. May 5. Millone Bullpen Perkins Jepsen Kelley Maurer Alvarez Tonkin O'Rourke AAA (waiting for spot) Duffey Berrios Meyer Kepler Polanco Vargas

Fair enough! Would the Mets consider DeGrom or Syndergaard instead? In my mind they're all #1 starters and I'd package Dozier for any of the three.

As the Twins wrap up a season of growth, much will be expected in 2016. It's not like Terry Ryan to make big changes, but he has to at least look into a few potential trades. Here is my attempt at figuring out who he is most likely to trade, teams that may have interest, and potential trades. I'm sure most of you will disagree, so let me know what you'd do instead. I have pretty thick skin, so feel free to rip these potential trades to pieces!! 1. Ricky Nolasco Reasoning: This would obviously be a trade to dump the most disappointing free agent signing in Twins history. In order to get rid of Nolasco, the Twins would have to take back a terrible contract or include prospects. They may be better off eating the contract and releasing him if he can't pitch effectively next spring. Maybe a NL team looking for starters would give Ricky another shot. Trade Partners: Padres, Dodgers Potential Trade: Nolasco, Plouffe, and Polanco to the Padres for Upton Jr., Norris, and Benoit Very difficult to even come up with a logical proposal, but the Padres would probably want/need to include either Upton or Shields in any offer. The Padres get a left side of the infield, the Twins get a catcher and bullpen arm. 2. Trevor Plouffe Reasoning: With Sano up and too young to be a DH only, the Twins will want him to play 100 games at 3B in 2016. Plouffe's value may be as high as it will ever be. Trade Partners: Red Sox, White Sox, Padres Potential Trade: Plouffe to the Red Sox for Brock Holt, Deven Marrero, and Austin Rei The Red Sox get a 3B as the move Sandoval to 1B. The Twins get "All-Star" utility player Brock Holt who can play all over the field giving them some flexibility. Marrero has seen his stock plummet, but he may still end up being a major league shortstop. Rei gives the Twins more depth at the catcher position. 3. Brian Dozier Reasoning: It's possible that Brian Dozier has hit his peak and his value may never be higher. The Twins could consider trading him for the right package of players. Trade Partners: Mets, Yankees, Royals Potential Trade: Dozier, Polanco, and Kepler to the Mets for Matt Harvey, Kevin Plawecki, and Thomas Szapucki I know this trade has a 0.001% chance of happening, but maybe the Mets are sick of drama and decide to trade from their starting pitching depth to get the young position players they need. The Twins get their ace, a top young catcher, and a 19-year-old lefty with some upside. (I know this leaves the Twins super thin up the middle, but if they did this they could sign a guy like Zobrist or Daniel Murphy to fill the whole for a couple years) 4. Kyle Gibson Reasoning: Gibson has shown growth, but he soon turns 28 and will probably never be better than a #4 starter on a good team. If the Twins can't get rid of Nolasco, Santana, or Hughes and they need to make room for Duffey and Berrios, Gibson could be good trade bait. Trade Partners: 1/2 the league could probably use Gibson as a #4 starter at the right price Potential Trade: Gibson to the Yankees for Gary Sanchez and Domingo Acevedo Behind Tanaka, the Yankees have a lot of question marks. Sanchez is blocked by McCann for the foreseeable future and Sanchez has lost some of his luster as a prospect. Maybe the Twins can get Sanchez to care about defense and he can platoon with Suzuki in 2016. Acevedo is a huge (literally, he's 6'7" 240) wild card that may never figure it out, but could be dominate if he does.

Considering how payrolls are rising, is $130M really a crazy number for a midsize market? It would probably move the Twins from about 20th in payroll up to about 13th (just above the Royals). Is this roster a 90+ win roster? C Wieters/Suzuki 1B Mauer/Plouffe 2B Dozier SS Polanco/Escobar/Santana 3B Sano/Plouffe LF Rosario/Plouffe CF Buxton RF Hicks/Arcia SP Grienke, Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Nolasco, May, Berrios, Duffy RP Perkins, Jepsen, Fien, Achter, Tonkin, Meyer, Graham, O'Rourke, Pressly

I intentionally didn't answer my own question on here because I wanted to see if my thinking was off, but I actually agree with pretty much what everyone said on here. Weiters is the only guy on the list that I'd have much interest in, unless we're going after an ace. Next question, would signing Weiters and one of the "aces" make the Twins a legitimate contender/favorite in the AL Central in 2016?

Although I'm generally an optimist, games like tonights leave my mind with lots of time to drift off into 2016. Assuming the Twins are not likely to sign any of the big name free agent pitchers (Price, Cueto, Grienke, Zimmerman) and they probably aren't going to be in the market for an outfielder (Upton, Heyward, Gordon, Cespedes), how would you rank the following players if you were making Terry Ryans offseason wish list? Matt Weiters Ian Desmond Scott Kazmir Jeff Samardzija Mike Leake

As we ring in 2015, here are my super optimistic predictions for the Twins big turnaround season. #1--Alex Meyer gives the Twins no choice but to make him the #5 starter by having a great spring. As the season progresses, he has some struggles but throws 160 innings with a respectable 4.00 ERA before being shut down in September. #2--Aaron Hicks has another good spring and earns a trip north as part of a CF platoon, but slowly progresses to the point that he collects 450 AB and shows some signs of figuring it out at the plate with a .730 OPS. #3--Trevor Plouffe gets off to a hot start with 8 home runs in April. He continues to play solid baseball and despite 18 home runs at the All-Star break, he is omitted from the AL All-Star team. He does have a busy break however, as he is traded to the Padres for a couple of prospects as they attempt to overtake the Dodgers and Giants in the NL West. #4--Miguel Sano follows the the Kennys Vargas route and comes up in July. After a hot start, he has some struggles and strikes out too much, but still manages to hit 14 second-half home runs and shows that he can handle 3B defensively. #5--Ricky Nolasco rebounds and he and Ervin Santana each give the Twins over 190 innings pitched at a sub-3.75 ERA. Despite trade rumors, Nolasco is not traded at the deadline as the Twins decide that they are ready to compete for a playoff spot in 2016. #6--Mike Pelfrey locks up a bullpen spot in spring training and after starting as the long reliever, he slowly gains Paul Molitor's trust and becomes a solid 7th/8th inning option. After clearing waivers, he is traded to the Tigers in late August for a mid-level prospect. #7--Despite allowing a few more walks, Phil Hughes has another solid season and makes Terry Ryan look brilliant for locking him up long term. Hughes makes the All-Star game as a last minute replacement for Masahiro Tanaka who blows out his elbow in his last start before the All-Star break. #8--Because of Aaron Hicks development, Danny Santana is allowed to play SS everyday. Despite a drop in BA, he becomes a more patient hitter which allows him to keep his OBP above .350. As the leadoff hitter, he steals 30 bases and adds 10 home runs. #9--With Joe Mauer's twin daughters finally allowing him to get a good nights sleep, he has his best season since 2009. He hits "only" .325 but adds some pop with 20 home runs and 100 rbi. However, most online commenters still feel his contract is preventing the Twins from being competitive. #10--Oswaldo Arcia continues to put it all together and leads the Twins with 28 home runs while hitting .275. He's a defensively liability, but gets to move back to right field after July 31st because Torii Hunter agrees to waive his no-trade clause and the Twins send him to the Cubs as they make a push to win the NL Central. The trade allows the Twins to call up...............Eddie Rosario to fill the LF spot. #11--Byron Buxton stays healthy and shows why he is the top prospect in baseball. Despite clamoring from the fan base, the Twins don't call him up until rosters expand in September. Buxton proves to be ready for the show and the Twins pencil him in as there center fielder for 2016. #12--Glen Perkins makes another All-Star game and leads an unspectacular, but solid Twins bullpen. With very few other needs in the 2015-16 offseason, the Twins spend some free agent dollars to sign lefty Antonio Bastardo and righty Wade Davis to team with Perkins, Fien, Burdi, Tonkin, and Thielbar in the bullpen. #13--Brian Dozier has another solid season with a low BA, but high OBP. With Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon having great seasons in the minors, the Twins elect not to to lock Dozier up to a long term deal and instead head to arbitration in the off-season. #14--Kennys Vargas has some struggles early in the season and the Twins decide to send him down to AAA because they need to find more at bats for Josmil Pinto. Pinto begins the season getting at bats at C/DH three days a week, but by hitting .280 with significant power he gets the majority of the DH at bats when he isn't spelling Suzuki behind the plate. Vargas absolutely rakes in AAA, but doesn't come back up until September due to a lack of available at bats. This creates a good problem as the Twins enter the off-season with a stockpile of young hitters. #15--The Twins beat the Tigers on the last day of the season to knock the Tigers into a one game tiebreaker with the White Sox for the AL Central title. The win is also the 81st of the season for the Twins. After an 11-win improvement, the Twins are the popular sleeper pick to win the AL Central in 2016. Here's to having a lot more fun watching the Twins in 2015!!

Just because I like being different, I'm going with Trevor Plouffe and Ervin Santana.

In my opinion, the Twins are on the right track. They have done a few things the past two years that made me scratch my head (2 years for Pelfrey, Bartlett/Kubel experiment), but I think they have to build back to respectability as the prospects make there way to the majors. Three things really stuck out to me while reading this thread. #1-The Twins have signed too many "average" starting pitchers. I just don't agree with this. The Twins need as many "average" starters as they can get while they hope that the minor leagues provides "top of the rotation" starters in the coming years. In my opinion, good teams have 6-7 guys that they can send to the mound with confidence. This has not been the case for the past 3-4 years, but I think they have set themselves up nicely in the years to come. 2015 Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, Milone, Meyer, May 2016 Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios 2017 Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios 2018 Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios, Stewart #2-The Twins undervalue defense. At this point, I have to agree with this. It appears the 2015 OF defense will be terrible and the IF defense will be average at best. The only counterpoint I could make is that if some of these young players with big bats develop, it will be fairly easy to trade power for defense/speed. #3-The Twins are shooting for .500 instead of shooting for the World Series. I can't disagree with this, but I would argue that you have to get to .500 before you reach the World Series. Sure they could have tried to dump Nolasco (selling low) and Pelfrey (not gonna be any takers) and then went after Scherzer instead of Santana, but I just don't think that would be the way to go (or realistic). With the new TV money rolling in, the Twins will have money to spend on a "true ace" in a year or two if they are ready to win a World Series and need that guy. Most likely their next "ace" is named Meyer, Berrios, or Stewart and the Twins next playoff team will be starting one or two of them in the postseason with guys like Santana and Hughes as #2, #3, or #4 starters. It's easy to use hindsight to question what the Twins were thinking, but on the whole I think Terry Ryan has them on the right track. Now the only question is, will enough of the prospects (Arcia, Vargas, Pinto, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Stewart, Meyer, Rosario, Burdi, Gordon) develop to make 2015-2024 look like 2001-2010 (hopefully with a lot more playoff success)?

Unless May or Meyer absolutely dominate in ST, I would guess that Milone gets the #5 spot in the rotation, May and Meyer are in AAA, and Pelfrey is in long relief to start the season. By June, there is a good chance that a starter is ineffective and another is injured so both May and Meyer are in the rotation.

Since the only true leadoff hitter the Twins have will likely be in AA, I would leave Santana in the #1 spot until he shows that he can't handle it. I would put Hunter in the #4 spot to start the season and make Vargas or Arcia (or Sano) take that spot from Hunter. As far as the bench goes, I could see Escobar getting 3 starts a week at 2B, SS, and 3B. Pinto can get a couple starts behind the plate each week with a few at bats in the DH spot. Schafer will likely get 2-3 starts a week throughout the OF and Nunez becomes a pinch hitter with occasional starts in both the IF and OF if necessary. 1. Santana SS 2. Dozier 2B 3. Mauer 1B 4. Hunter RF 5. Vargas DH 6. Plouffe 3B 7. Arcia LF 8. Suzuki C 9. Hicks CF Bench: Escobar, Schafer, Nunez, Pinto

At some point, I hope the Twins will be forced to move Dozier down in the order, but for now I'd love to see the line-up look like this on an everyday basis: 1. Santana 6 2. Dozier 4 3. Mauer 3 4. Vargas DH 5. Arcia 9 Hopfully by mid-2015 the Twins have to go with something like this: 1. Buxton 8 2. Mauer 3 3. Vargas DH 4. Sano 5 5. Arcia 9 6. Dozier 4 7. Suzuki/Pinto 2 8. Plouffe/Hicks/Rosario 7 9. Santana 6

I just don't see the free agent market being very good and I think 2015 needs to be a year where young guys play. Here would be my analysis of the Twins needs and potential options. Starting Pitching Targets: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields Very unlikely that this happens, but these would be the only starting pitchers I'd target since everyone else on the FA market looks like mid-rotation filler and we have 6 decent SP options already (Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May, Millone) along with some AAA filler (Pelfrey, PIno, Darnell, Johnson). Relief Pitching Targets: Andrew Miller I don't see the Twins targeting a reliever unless the decide not to offer arb to Duensing. In that case, I could see them looking at a left-handed reliever and Miller is probably the best option. Catcher: None With the resigning of Suzuki there won't be a move at catcher. Corner Infield: None We are pretty set at 1B/DH types and Plouffe is good enough to hold down 3B until Sano is ready. Middle Infield: Hanley Ramirez This is never going to happen, but he is the only guy I'd view as a major upgrade over Santana (or even Escobar for that matter). Corner Outfielder: Yasmani Thomas, Melky Cabrera Not a lot of options here, but the I would take a serious look at Thomas and Cabrera. If I were Terry Ryan, I think Thomas would be my #1 realistic target in free agency. It will be very interesting to see what his market is considering how well some Cuban guys have played. Cabrera is still only 29 and has been pretty good in 3 of the past 4 years. Outside of these 2, I just don't see much that is an big upgrade over guys like Parmalee. Center Field: Denard Span, Colby Rasmus, Grady Sizemore I really think the Twins start the year with Santana at SS, so that leaves an opening in CF. Even though many will disagree, I'd like to see Hicks come up in September and get one more shot next spring. I still think he is part of the future. If they Twins disagree, I could see them going after the likes of Span, Rasmus, or Sizemore on a short deal. I'd love to see the Twins sign Yasmani Thomas and Andrew Miller. I think the two of them would fill needs in the short term (Miller) and long term (Thomas), while not blocking any real prospects.

While there have been injuries (Buxton, Sano, Mauer), disappointments (Hicks again, Nolasco, Arcia), and slow promortions (May, Meyer), I think the season as a whole has been a decent transition year. There have been some pleasant surprises (Santana, Suzuki), some progress (Dozier continuing where he left off, Gibson, Plouffe being decent), and some guys getting some MLB experience (Santana, Vargas, May). I really think next year will continue the transition and turn this club into a .500 team that is ready for a playoff push in 2016. If I were the GM, I'm not sure I'd add any veterans unless a good deal is to be had. Here would be my 2015 opening day roster, followed by top prospects called-up in season. IF-Suzuki, PInto, Mauer, Vargas, Dozier, Santana, Escobar, Plouffe, Nunez OF-Parmalee, Hicks, Arcia, Schafer SP-Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, Meyer, Millone RF-Perkins, Fien, Thielbar, Pressley, Tonkin, Swarzak, Duensing Prospect in-season call-ups (in order of call-up): May, Sano, Burdi, Rosario, Buxton

I agree in the case of Bartlett and will never defend their decision to bring him to MN in April. That had Gardenhire stubbornness written all over it!

I agree with that concept, I guess I just don't know that there was anyone that was ready (development wise) and performing at such a high level that they would necessarily feel this way. You could make an argument for guys like Pressley and Parmalee taking the spots of Guerrier and Kubel, but I don't know that they're super young guys that are part of the solution either. They have both had plenty of chances as well. On the other hand, keeping Presley over Bartlett clearly would have given us a better 25 man roster and chance to be more successful. In my mind, Meyer and May are the two guys that are being held down too long but that wasn't due to any of these signings, it's due to the Twins refusing to push a starting pitching prospect (which is extremely frustrating to me).

I know I will get ripped to shreds by many for this post and I'm okay with that:D, but I do think there is something to be said for having some veterans around. Teams and organizations that are successful over the long haul generally have some players that may be past their prime, but are still there to show younger players how to be professionals. As a high school coach that has had fairly successful teams over the past decade, I can say there are times that I've had extremely valuable players that see very little time on the field. Seniors that work hard and are always prepared can teach younger players, even though the younger players are more talented. I know high school sports are not the same as a major league organization and this isn't an apples to apples comparison (it's not even close), but I firmly believe that some of this is true even at the major league level. I would guess you could go through every MLB roster and find a player or two that probably aren't as talented as someone that they have in the minors, but they chose to keep the veteran around. I believe that a guy like Guerrier has had value to the organization this year from being around young guys in spring training, to AAA, to the big league team, despite the fact that we probably had plenty of AAA pitchers that have more talent. If a guy like Guerrier can have an influence on young players and still be relatively productive in a certain role, it was a successful signing in my mind. Very shortly after his release, this tweet came out from Brian Duensing: "I'm gonna miss @mattygrrr he's the guy who taught me how to be a professional. A guy I really look up to. Good luck bub." Having said all of that, the organization obviously needs to weigh all of these things that can't be measured with performance on the field. That is where I see the difference in the Kubel, Guerrier and Bartlett decisions. Kubel had produced relatively recently and did so in April while also by all accounts being a "good clubhouse presence" (for lack of a better term). Guerrier came up and was relatively productive in a small role and the team obviously felt he was a "good clubhouse presence". Keeping Bartlett, on the other hand, caused us to have to release Presley and push Hicks again while providing zero indication that he had any value on the field. That in my mind is the difference. Go ahead and fire away!!:shoot: