TwinsTerritory

So with the opening day roster apparently set (barring a waiver pickup the next couple days), what is the best case scenario for the Twins? This is based on the assumption that the Twins are not (by some miracle) playoff contenders in 2014. 1. The young (and semi-young) guys in the line-up play well. We really need to hope that Pinto, Dozier, Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson show that they belong in the big leagues. 2. A few veterans play well and can be used as trade chips in July. It would be great if we could flip Willingham, Corriea, and Burton for anything of value.I'd include Bartlett and Kubel, but that is probably asking way too much! 3. The revamped pitching staff can bring some stability and keep the anemic offense in games. If Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfrey can put together solid seasons, we won't have to go into next off-season looking for as much pitching. 4. The young guys at AAA and AA are ready to contribute at some point in the year. If Meyer, May, Tonkin, Rosario, (and maybe Buxton) can get their feet wet at the major league level, they may be ready to be real contributors as soon as next year. 5. Miscellaneous other good news. *Mauer is healthy, fresh, and hits 15-20 home runs to go with his .325 batting average. *Sano comes back at 100% and hungry to be our 3B next April. *The young prospects (Stewart, Berrios, Thorpe, etc.) continue to develop quickly. If most of those things happen, this just may be a more optimistic place to visit 12 months from now.

So the Tigers have added 8 years and $248 million to the 2 years and $44 million they already owed Miguel Cabrera. I know he's been one of the best (if not the best) hitters over the past 8-10 years, but this seems like the type of contract that will give the Tigers a lot of headaches starting about 5-6 years from now. I love watching Cabrera hit, but this sounds like good news for the Twins. Hopefully this contract will be an albatross for the Tigers during the prime years of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, etc.

I couldn't agree with this more. Plug Colabello into the 25th spot and you have a mix of young guys getting a shot (Hicks, Arcia, Pinto), veterans that could be traded if they get off to a good start (Willingham, Corriea, Burton), and some younger guys in the minors ready to come up if needed (Gibson, Meyer, Tonkin, Santana, etc).

Taking a slightly different approach, here would be my thoughts on a successful 2014 by position. C--Pinto shows he can hit at the major league level, handle the pitching staff, and a starter for years to come 1B--Mauer stays healthy and hits for a little more power without the wear and tear of catching. 2B--Dozier proves the 2nd half of last year wasn't a fluke and he's going to be an average to above average major league 2B. Rosario comes back from his suspension and continues to progress defensively at 2B. We enter 2015 with 2 guys capable of playing that position. SS--Florimon and Escobar play good defense and show enough at the plate that we can compete with them hitting in the 8 or 9 hole in the line-up 3B--Plouffe starts to show some consistency, especially in the power department. It would be great if he could take hold of playing time at 3B/1B/DH once Sano is ready. Sano's arm is healthy and he either breaks camp in MN or is up by June. Once up, he can handle 3B defensively and shows some power even if he struggles with his BA/OBP early on. LF--Willingham is healthy and has a season close to 2012 so we can get something significant in a trade in July. CF-Presley develops into a solid 4th outfielder. Hicks earns a spot in MN out of spring training or by mid-season and shows enough at the plate that he is someone we can count on for years to come. Buxton continues his fast rise and the Twins have to seriously consider a September call-up. RF--Arcia is able to be more consistent at the plate and adequate in the field. Becomes someone we can slot in the middle of the line-up for the future. Parmalee shows something at the plate that forces the Twins to keep him in the line-up. DH--Some combo of Kubel, Parmalee, Colabello, and Ploufee provides the Twins with a solid lefty/righty combo. SP--Nolasco provides solid innings, Hughes flashes the ability that made him a top prospect now that he's away from New York, Corriea is solid and brings something back in July, and Pelfrey continues work back to pre-Tommy John levels and has some trade value. Gibson forces the Twins to find a rotation spot for him. Deduno, Worley, and Diamond pitch well in spring training and either head north or bring back some low level prospects. Meyer starts in AAA, but is ready for the rotation by July when Corriea is traded. Trevor May shows he can stick as a starter and gets as September call-up. Berrios, Stewart, and Thorpe continue to develop and progress in the system. RP--Almost everyone here just needs to pitch as well as they did last year. Starters pitch better so we don't see as much of the middle relievers and more of Fien, Burton, and Perkins. Tonkin finds a spot in the bullpen and continues to progress. If 75% of those things happen, the Twins win at least 75 games and everyone on this board smiles more by next February!

Good question! The only problem I see with waiting a year is that he is now a free agent and it only takes one desperate team. By trading for him now, the Twins would have a little leverage. There is always some value to a long-term security, especially for a pitcher that can blow out their elbow and never see the big pay day. As far as Hicks and Rosario are concerned, I see them as good prospects that have a 50/50 chance of being MLB regulars. In my mind they each have about a 50% chance of being a solid major league player, so we're basically trading a left fielder for a top end pitcher (and we send Corriea back because we don't need 8 starters and it saves us a little money).

I didn't know the rules about trading Rosario either and I couldn't find them anywhere. Could he be a PTBNL?

It's a cold day and I have the day off from teaching, so let's pretend that you're the new Twins GM. Where would you go from here? Here's my grand plan (in a world where nobody gets hurt and all prospects live up to their billing). Please bear in mind that as the Twins GM, my goals are as follows. 2014--progress, 73-77 wins 2015--above .500, competitive into August/September 2016 and beyond--playoff contender/participant 2013-14 Off-season *Trade Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and Kevin Corriea for Homer Bailey *Sign Bailey to a 6 year/$95 million dollar contract that buys out his last arbitration year (he is going to make about $10 million in 2014 through arbitration) *Trade Worley & Diamond for low-level prospects (one of them can stay if Deduno starts on the DL) 2014 Opening Day Roster 1. Presley CF 2. Dozier 2B 3. Mauer 1B 4. Willingham LF 5. Kubel DH 6. Arcia RF 7. Plouffe 3B 8. Suzuki C 9. Florimon SS Bench-Fryer, Parmalee, Escobar, Mastroianni SP-Bailey, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Deduno RP-Perkins, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Swarzak, Thielbar, Pressly 2014 Payroll Estimate: $90 million 2014 Summer *Trade Willingham, Pelfrey & Burton for prospects *Call up Sano, Gibson, Pinto & Tonkin 2014 September Call-ups Buxton, Meyer & May 2014-15 Off-season *Sign Nick Markakis to a 3 year/$30 million dollar contract *Resign Suzuki to a 1 year/$2 million dollar contract *Don't offer Duensing arbitration 2015 Line-up 1. Buxton CF 2. Dozier 2B 3. Mauer 1B 4. Sano 3B 5. Arcia LF 6. Markakis RF 7. Plouffe DH 8. Pinto C 9. Florimon SS Bench: Suzuki, Parmalee, Escobar, Presley SP: Bailey, Nolasco, Meyer, Hughes, Gibson RP: Perkins, Fien, Tonkin, Thielbar, Swarzak, Deduno, Pressly 2015 Payroll Estimate: $95-100 million This would leave the Twins with control of almost everyone heading into 2016 and plenty of money to get a free agent or two. Now that I've killed an hour, feel free to rip my plans (or make positive suggestions)

Line-up 1. Presley CF 2. Dozier 2B 3. Mauer 1B 4. Willingham LF 5. Kubel DH 6. Arcia RF 7. Plouffe 3B 8. Suzuki C 9. Florimon SS Bench Fryer C Parmalee 1B/OF Escobar 2B/SS/3B Mastrioanni OF Rotation Nolasco Hughes Corriea Pelfrey Worley Bullpen Perkins Burton Fien Duensing Thielbar Swarzak Diamond DL Deduno* AAA Hicks, Pinto, Meyer, Gibson, May AA Sano, Buxton *If Deduno is healthy, move him into the rotation and Diamond or Worley is gone on waivers

Surprised me a little too, I thought he'd get closer to 10 years, $300 million. Barring injury, I would guess there is a really good chance that he becomes a free agent or gets an extension in 5 years.

Assuming no more FA signings, I'd guess the following. C-Suzuki 1B-Mauer 2B-Dozier SS-Florimon 3B-Plouffe LF-Willingham CF-Presley RF-Arcia DH-Kubel Bench-Fryer ©, Escobar (2B/SS/3B), Parmalee (1B/OF), Mastoianni (OF) SP-Nolasco, Hughes, Corriea, Pelfrey, Worley RP-Perkins, Fien, Burton, Duensing, Thielbar, Swarzak, Pressly DL-Deduno Trade-Diamond AAA (and ready for a call if needed)-Pinto, Hicks, Bartlett, Colabello, Gibson, Meyer, Tonkin

I would agree on Buxton. I'm as anxious as the next fan, but I just don't see any way he is on a Twins roster by August. In the most unscientific way possible, I've put together the following percentages for his arrival: April-August 2014: 0.1% September 2014: 4.9% April/May 2015: 25% June-September 2015: 65% After 2015: 5%

April 1. Presley CF 2. Dozier 2B 3. Mauer 1B 4. Willingham LF 5. Arcia RF 6. Plouffe 3B 7. Kubel/Parmelee/Colabello DH 8. Suzuki C 9. Florimon SS August 1. Hicks CF 2. Dozier 2B 3. Mauer 1B 4. Sano 3B 5. Arcia RF 6. Kubel/Plouffe DH 7. Pinto C 8. Presley/Parmelee LF 9. Florimon SS

In my opinion there is a fine line between the Twins spending money because they have it and working to improve the team. When it comes to starting pitching, the Twins have spent some money and have clearly upgraded their options, however they only need 5 starters at a time (obviously depth is important too). I personally liked the Nolasco signing, if he becomes or #2 or #3 in the near future. I'm not as convinced that we needed to sign Hughes and Pelfrey. With the new TV money, I would have liked to see the Twins sign one of those two and bring in a bigger name either this offseason or next. There is a lot of talk about playoff contention on this site and the year 2015 seems to be the consensus of many. I'm not sure that this 2015 rotation puts the Twins in playoff contention: 1. Nolasco 2. Meyer 3. Hughes 4. Gibson 5. Pelfrey/Deduno/Worley/Diamond On the other hand, 1 more big name would look a lot more like a playoff-contending rotation. 1. Tanaka/Garza/Jimenez/Bailey/Scherzer/Shields 2. Nolasco 3. Meyer 4. Hughes or Pelfrey 5. Gibson/Deduno/Worley/Diamond

I agree that Plouffe would be a nice bench player that could play some corner infield and outfield. In a perfect world Willingham and Corriea will get off to good starts and can be traded. Then the Twins line-up might look something like this in August. 1. Hicks CF 2. Dozier 2B 3. Mauer 1B 4. Sano 3B 5. Kubel DH 6. Arcia RF/LF 7. Pinto C 8. Florimon SS 9. Presley/Plouffe/Parmalee LF/RF Bench: Plouffe, Escobar, Suzuki, Parmalee SP: Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Deduno, Gibson (I think Meyer is at best a Sept. call-up) RP: Perkins, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar, Tonkin, Swarzak

I actually wouldn't have minded it if they had signed Johnson, but it sounds like he really wanted to go to the west coast so we probably would have had to overpay to get him in MN. Then Baer would have ripped the Twins for overpaying for another mediocre pitcher.

On Hardball, Bill Baer ranks his top 5 and bottom 5 offseasons so far and has the Twins in the bottom 5. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/29/ranking-the-worst-off-seasons-so-far/ While I can see why some aren't extremely positive about the future of any of our free agent signings, I don't understand how what they've done can be considered bad. He suggests we should have saved the money from signing all 3 starters and gone after Tanaka. That's fine, but the money from those 3 combined won't be anywhere near enough to sign Tanaka and even if we did save money to make him a big offer where would we be if he got a bigger offer elsewhere or just doesn't have any interest in playing in MN? Doing that seems like it would be similar to what Seattle did with Cano and he ranks them last for trying to improve by spending all their money on one player. With where our payroll is and the prospects we have coming up, I just don't see where any of our signings made us worse or tied up money that we will need in the near future. P.S. While I'm ranting, his list of the top 5 offseasons is even more baffling to me. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/29/ranking-the-best-off-seasons-so-far/ He seems to be basing most of his top 5 (excluding the Cardinals at #1) rankings on two things: 1. Assumptions that the Yankees and Tigers are still going to sign more players. (I'm sure the Yankees will, but I don't know how he factors into current rankings). 2. Teams that have been successful in the past must be smart now. He seriously questions much of what the Rays, Tigers, or Rangers have done, but figures it will work out because they have solid teams. I agree all 3 have great teams, but I don't know that it makes their offseasons great.

I think the verdict on the Revere trade is still out. Revere has time to prove to be a solid, if unspectacular, major league centerfielder. May and, to a lesser extent, Worley still have a chance to be solid major league pitchers. On the other hand, I think Terry Ryan would do the Span trade over again 10 times out of 10. Span is at best an average major league outfielder while Meyer has a chance to be a #2 starter. A top of the rotation starter is way more valuable than an average outfielder.

It seems to me that Deduno's health is the wild card. If he's healthy, I think he has a big lead in the competition for the 5th spot. That would probably mean that either Diamond or Worley is in the bullpen and the other is on waivers. If Deduno goes to the DL, I'd guess both Worley and Diamond make the roster as 5th starter and long reliever. I can't see Swarzak or Duensing being moved into the rotation and I don't think there is any way that Meyer makes the team out of ST. That leaves Gibson to go to AAA and wait for a spot. I appreciate what Albers did last year, but he is a AAA lifer that gets a few starts when a team has injuries.

While Terry Ryan has surprised so far with his spending, I would be shocked to see any more big signings. I'd love to see a couple small signings that would set the Twins up to make 2014 a great transition year into playoff contention in 2015. I'd love to see them sign Corey Hart and John Buck. These two would allow them to ease Pinto into the majors and make Willingham a full-time DH. Doumit could then be a utility player and bench bat. 2014 Line-up Opening Day 2nd Half 1. Presley CF 1. Hicks CF 2. Dozier 2B 2. Dozier 2B 3. Mauer 1B 3. Mauer 1B 4. Willingham DH 4. Arcia RF 5. Hart LF 5. Hart LF 6. Arcia RF 6. Sano 3B 7. Plouffe 3B 7. Ploufee DH 8. Buck C 8. Pinto C 9. Florimon SS 9. Florimon SS Be-Doumit Be-Buck Be-Escobar Be-Escobar Be-Parmalee Be-Presley Be-Mastroianni Be-Parmalee SP-Nolasco SP-Nolasco SP-Hughes SP-Hughes SP-Correia SP-Gibson SP-Deduno SP-Deduno SP-Worley SP-Worley RP-Perkins RP-Perkins RP-Burton RP-Fien RP-Fien RP-Tonkin RP-Duensing RP-Duensing RP-Thielbar RP-Thielbar RP-Swarzak RP-Swarzak RP-Diamond RP-Diamond Mid-season Trades: Willingham, Doumit, Corriea, Burton September call-ups: Meyer, Buxton, May, Rosario

While Anderson has a lot of upside, I don't know that I would give up one of our top 6-7 prospects. How about a package of lesser prospects? Considering Oakland's budget constraints and desire to dump some salary maybe a package like Kepler, Diamond or Worley, and another low-level prospect would get it done? Not sure if Diamond or Worley could stick in Oakland though.

I agree with much of what has been said, so that leaves a few questions. #1 Are the Twins still seriously considering giving Pelfrey a contract? That seems illogical unless they are ready to lose at least 2 of Diamond, Deduno, and Worley (edited from earlier when I mistakenly typed Gibson). #2 Would they put any of the 3 in the bullpen? I just don't see that being a great fit, but it may be a better option than letting any of them walk. #3 Do any of the 3 have value in a small trade? Maybe for a low level prospect?

Yeah, I just didn't want to take them off because who knows what the Twins will do with the #4/#5 spots in the rotation. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gibson start in AAA and Diamond/Worley/Deduno fight for those 2 spots out of spring training. I don't think any of them can be ruled out, but I do understand that 1 or 2 of them probably aren't in the organization in the near future.

I'm going with 75-87, but I'll take 85 wins in 2015!

Now that we've seen Terry Ryan start to spend some money, we have a better feel for what the Twins are thinking. The next question is, how does this play out this year and long term. I've included a 2 year/15M contract for A.J. I would prefer Saltalmachia for a little more money, but it appears the Twins are locked in on AJ and we can afford him for 2 years to platoon/mentor Pinto while also serving as DH occasionally. I really like how this shapes up for this year with the future in mind. We can look to trade Willingham, Doumit, Corriea and Burton at the deadline for some young players to stock the minors. This would free up room for Sano, Buxton, Meyer, etc. to come up during the season. Without being too optimistic, I could see this team finishing a little under .500. Maybe 75-87? Looking forward to 2015, I really like how the roster looks and it appears there would be room in the budget for 1 or 2 big signings (maybe a #1/#2 starter if guys like Gibson/Diamond/Worley/Deduno don't pan out and a position player at middle infield or corner outfield). If Sano, Buxton, and Meyer live up to expectations, this team could be above .500 and in the wild card race into August/September. Potential 2014 Opening Day Roster C: Pierzynski (7.5M), Pinto (0.5M) 1B: Mauer (23M), Parmalee (0.5M) 2B: Dozier (0.5M) SS: Florimon (0.5M), Escobar (0.5M) 3B: Plouffe (1.5M) LF: Willingham (7M) CF: Pressley (0.5M) Mastroianni (0.5M) RF: Arcia (0.5M) DH: Doumit (3.5M) SP: Nolasco (12M) SP: Hughes (8M) SP: Correia (5.5M) SP: Deduno (0.5M) SP: Gibson (0.5M) RP: Perkins (4M) RP: Burton (3.25M) RP: Fien (0.5M) RP: Duensing (2M) RP: Pressley (0.5M) RP: Swarzak (1.2M) RP: Thielbar (0.5M) Others: Tonkin (0.5M), Diamond (0.55M), Worley (0.55M), Fryer (0.5M), Hendricks (0.5M) Total Payroll: $87.55M Potential 2015 Opening Day Roster C: Pierzynski (7.5M), Pinto (0.5M) 1B: Mauer (23M), Parmalee (0.5M) 2B: Dozier (0.55M) SS: Florimon (0.5M), Escobar (0.5M) 3B: Sano (0.5M) LF: Hicks (0.5M) CF: Buxton (0.5M), Pressley (0.5M) RF: Arcia (0.5M) DH: Plouffe (2M) SP: Nolasco (12M) SP: Hughes (8M) SP: Meyer (0.5M) SP: Deduno (0.5M) SP: Gibson (0.5M) RP: Perkins (4M) RP: Burton (3.4M) RP: Fien (0.5M) RP: Tonkin (0.5M) RP: Thielbar (0.5M) RP: Pressley (0.5M) RP: Swarzak (1.75M)Others: Rosario (0.5M), May (0.5M), Diamond (0.55M), Worley (0.55M), Fryer (0.5M), Hendricks (0.5M) Total Payroll: $73.3M