TwinsTerritory

While we patiently await a blockbuster trade of Suzuki or Plouffe (sarcasm intended), let's see who can guess the 2017 opening day roster. Below are the game rules and scoring. Entries accepted until October 1st. Winner receives a fake article on the Twins Daily forum naming them as the "2017 Most Intelligent Twins Fan of the Year". 1. List the 25 players on the opening day roster. 2. List the batting line-up on opening day. 3. List the starting rotation in order (opening day starter, game 2 starter, etc.) 4. Name the closer as of opening day. Tie-breaker: Name the highest paid free agent the Twins will sign and include total contract cost (i.e. Wilson Ramos $90M) Scoring 10 points for each correctly named player on the roster (250 total points possible) 25 points for each correct spot in the line-up (225 total points possible) 15 points for each starter in the correct spot in the rotation (75 total points possible) 50 points for naming the closer to open the season (50 points possible) Total of 600 points possible

My prediction, 2 trades today. One is expected and the other a surprise. Suzuki and Abad to the Indians for SS Erik Gonzalez Gonzalez is a 24 year old that may never be great offensively, but plays good defense and is probably ready to see what he can do at the major league level (but is blocked by Lindor) MLB.com has him as the Indians #9 prospect (after the Miller trade). Twins can always try to resign Kurt in the offseason if they don't think Murphy or Garver are ready. Nolasco and $12M to the Dodgers for C Keibert Ruiz The Twins eat 2/3 of Nolasco's remaining money and get a lottery ticket catching prospect in 18 year old Ruiz, a rotation spot for Berrios, and a small amount of salary relief. Dodgers get some rotation depth for about $5M over this year and next.

10 days have passed and quite a few things have changed. We have a new (interim) GM and some team's situations as buyers/sellers is becoming more clear. Here are my new moves for the next 6 months. July Trades Ervin Santana and Alex Meyer to the Red Sox for Michael Kopech--The Twins run out of patience with Meyer and package him with Santana to get the Sox to give up one of their best prospects in Kopech who immediately slots in as one of the Twins top 5 prospects and gives hope for a Berrios, Kopech, Jay top 3 in the rotation by 2018. Kurt Suzuki and Fernando Abad to the Indians for Francisco Mejia and Yandy Diaz--After the Indians fail to pay a king's ransom for Lucroy and Smith from the Brewers, they settle for the Twins combo. Mejia is young, but projects as an everyday catcher in a few years and Diaz may be ready to take over at 3B as soon as mid-2017 when the Twins decide that Sano is a DH. August 1 Call-ups Jose Berrios JR Murphy JT Chargois August Trades Tommy Milone Trevor Plouffe September Call-ups Pat Dean Jorge Polanco Byung Ho Park Alex Meyer Mason Melatokis Trevor Hildenberger Jason Wheeler Alex Wimmers September/October Hires/Fires Fire Dave St. Peter (or "promote" him to some special position that doesn't make baseball decisions) Hire Kim Ng as President of Baseball Operations Hire Jason McLeod as Executive Vice President/General Manager Off-season Trades Brian Dozier to the Dodgers for Grant Holmes, Willie Calhoun, and Angel German--The Dodgers are looking to upgrade at 2B with Chase Utley a free agent and the Twins need to find a spot for Jorge Polanco. Holmes is a top-100 prospect and gives the Twins another high end starting prospect. Calhoun is currently playing 2B, but may profile as a 3B/OF with patience and good power. German can hit upper 90s, but hasn't learned how to pitch yet. A 20 year old, he could develop into something special with improvements. Free Agent Signings Wilson Ramos Mark Melancon 2017 Opening Day Roster C--Ramos, Murphy 1B--Mauer, Park/Vargas 2B--Polanco SS--Nunez, Escobar 3B--Sano OF--Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, Grossman, Santana SP--Gibson, Berrios, Nolasco, Duffey, May (Hughes) RP--Melancon, Pressly, Kintzler, Tonkin, Chargois, Rogers, Hildenberger (Perkins)

I don't totally disagree, but if the Twins play Murphy and don't think he's the answer in 2017 they will only have two options. #1-sign Ramos or Weiters to a huge deal #2-sign a retread like Suzuki, Herrman, or someone else to a 1-2 year deal.

I did some of this in another post, but here are my potential trades for Kurt. I also included a dream deal at the end for those of us that are wishful thinkers! *Suzuki to the Rangers for infielder Josh Morgan. The 2014 3rd round pick is 20 years old and the Ranger's #9 ranked prospect. Morgan can play 2B/3B and maybe even SS. Could be a potential 3B when Sano makes the move to 1B full time in a couple years. Rangers have also made some attempts at turning him into a catcher which is intriguing for the Twins. *Suzuki to the Astros for RHP Albert Abreu Abreu is a high-upside gamble. He has the potential to be a 1-2 starter, but he also has some control issues. 20 years old and a few years from the majors. *Suzuki to the Indians for C Fransisco Mejia Mejia is the Indians #8 ranked prospect and is probably 2 years away. Switch hitter with a strong arm and adequate defense. Having a good year at high-A, so the Indians may not be willing to give him up for a rental *Suzuki, Santana, and $15M to the Red Sox for RHP Michael Kopech and 3B Michael Chavis Kopech is the Red Sox #5 prospect and a VERY hard throwing righty that could be a #1-2 starter as soon as 2018. Chavis is the Red Sox #10 prospect and a 2014 1st round pick. A solid bat that is still working to learn 3B. He may be ready to play 3B when Sano makes the inevitable transition to 1B/DH in a couple years.

After Lucroy, I see Vogt, Norris and Suzuki as being the next best options (unless someone has money to burn on McCann).

In my view, a smart front office would do the following: 1. Trade Suzuki to the highest bidder (be aggressive now, instead of waiting 3 weeks) 2. Let Murphy play for two months 3. Reevaluate in the off-season and if necessary resign Suzuki or someone similar to a 1 year deal.

I was erring on the side of caution simply because it drives me nuts when people want to trade Abad or Nolasco for a top 100 prospect! I understand what you're saying, but I just don't see us getting much for anyone that we want to trade other than Dozier. I see 5 levels of trade chips, unfortunately very few are going to bring much back in return. #1--long term, high value to other teams under a reasonable contract (Dozier) #2--short term value to other teams but long term contract with considerable money owed (Santana) #3--questionable value in short or long term, but cheap (Nunez, Grossman, Escobar) #4--short term rental with little value (Suzuki, Plouffe, Abad, Kintzler) #5--no value (Nolasco, Milone)

Since everyone would like to trade everyone except Sano, Kepler, Buxton, and Berrios , I'll get more specific on who I'd like to get in return. I know the odds of getting one right is about a million to one, but it's fun to read up on other team's prospects! I think the Twins hold on to Nunez with no obvious replacement ready in the minors. *Kurt Suzuki to the Rangers for infielder Josh Morgan. The 2014 3rd round pick is 20 years old and the Ranger's #9 ranked prospect. Morgan can play 2B/3B and maybe even SS. Could be a potential 3B when Sano makes the move to 1B full time in a couple years. Rangers have also made some attempts at turning him into a catcher which is intriguing for the Twins. *Ervin Santana to the Marlins for LHP Jarlin Garcia The Twins (smartly) decide to eat a small amount of the money due Santana and get the Marlins #3 prospect in Garcia. Garcia is not a top 100 prospect, but he is a lefty that could crack the rotation as soon as next year. *Fernando Abad to the Indians for SS Willi Castro Castro is only 19 years old and a project, but has good speed and defensive skills. With Lindor and other SS prospects, the Indians are willing to part with their #20 prospect. *Trevor Plouffe to the Mets (in August after he clears waivers) for LHP Josh Smoker Smoker is a true roll of the dice as he is 27 years old and played in the independent league in 2014. The down side is he would take up a spot on the 40-man, but the reason he's worth a gamble is that he's left handed and can touch 98 mph. The Twins aren't getting much for Plouffe, but Smoker could come up in September and the Twins could see what he's got. Sadly, there are no takers for Ricky Nolasco so he stays with the Twins until they decide to DFA him next June

Yeah, I missed that. I was thinking he could go down yet this year. At this point, Polanco could probably stay at AAA for the month of August and leave Santana on the roster. Polanco could then come up when rosters expand.

It's true they don't have many, but they do owe Hughes $13.5M and Park $3M, plus the option or more likely buyout on E. Santana. I agree that money shouldn't really be a huge issue until about 2020 when a bunch of these young guys are into their arbitration years.

I like a lot of this, but I wouldn't keep that many "Twins" guys in coaching positions. I like the idea of Doug with Redmond as a bench coach, but I'd go find my other coaches in successful organizations.

He's obviously a fringe guy that could be gone. In this scenario, he would be in AAA in August come back up in September. If he's gone next year, that's fine with me. Just not sure who's ready to replace him in my scenario unless you sign a guy, but I'm not sure the point of signing a guy if it's not going to be a major improvement.

Let's pretend that Terry Ryan steps down tomorrow and you're named the GM of the Twins. What's your plan for the next 9 months? I'll start with mine so that you all have some mistakes to learn from (or something to mock)!! My Plan Call me an eternal optimist, but if I get hired as the next Twins GM I'm not looking to tank for 3 years. I'm looking to be more competitive in 2017 (wouldn't take much) and expecting to make the playoffs in 2018. As awful as this season has been, the circumstances surrounding the Twins haven't changed that much since the end of 2015. Let's look at this step-by-step. Step 1: Where are we at? Catching: Huge hole with no clear answer other than crossed fingers (Murphy, Turner, etc) Corner Infield: Pretty set at the corners with Sano at 3B & some combo of Mauer, Park, Vargas at 1B Middle Infield: Dozier is solid at 2B and Polanco is probably ready. Huge questions at SS with Nunez, Escobar, Santana as options and other guys probably a couple years away. Outfield: 2/3 looks set with Buxton & Kepler. Are Rosario or Grossman the other 1/3? Can Walker or Palka become major league outfielders? Starting Pitching: We've got some veterans (Santana, Nolasco, Hughes), a couple of guys that are probably as good as they're going to get (Gibson, Milone), one top prospect that's probably ready (Berrios), a some big question marks (May, Duffey, Meyer), and some intriguing potential in the minors (Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart, Thorpe, Romero, Jorge) Relief Pitching: This is a scary area with virtually no healthy veterans and a bunch of promising young guys in the minor leagues. Step 2: Where are our biggest strengths/weaknesses? Strengths: Not much!!! I guess we seem to be in decent shape in the outfield, at third base, and at second base. Weaknesses: Catcher, shortstop, starting pitching and relief pitching in the near future Step 3: How do we get better for 2017 and make the playoffs in 2018? There are basically 3 ways to get better. I've ranked them according to importance in my mind. 1. Young guys develop: Everything else is a moot point if Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Kepler, etc. don't continue to make huge strides. Here is what I do to help this happen: *Play the young guys! *Call up young guys to take the place of the guys I trade/DFA (see below). My 25 guys look like this in August: C: Murphy, Centeno 1B: Mauer, Vargas or Park 2B: Dozier, Polanco SS: Nunez, Escobar 3B: Sano OF: Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Grossman SP: Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Berrios, May (Dean until May is stretched out) RP: Kintzler, Pressly, Tonkin, Rogers, Ramirez, Chargois, Meyer *In October, I'm hiring a coaching staff that I believe can do the best job of developing these guys and I'm making it clear that I expect them to play. I'd give strong consideration to Doug Mientkiewicz, but otherwise I'm going outside the organization. 2. Trades: The Twins have few major league trade chips with value, but here is the who, what and when of my plan. *Plouffe, Nolasco, Milone, Suzuki, and Abad get traded in July/August for whatever I can get. If eating salary helps get anything in return, I would do so. *Dozier gets traded to the Dodgers in the offseason for a package of young players. The Dodgers don't have much at SS/C, so I'm targeting a top 100 starting pitching prospect and a couple lower level prospects. (Dozier for Frankie Montas, Brendon Davis, and Kyle Farmer) *Either Nunez or Escobar is traded in July/offseason if I can get the right prospect back, but otherwise they stay and man shortstop/utility roles in 2017. *Ervin Santana is not traded. I'm planning to be more competitive in 2017 and make the playoffs in 2018. Santana can be a part of that and I don't have guys ready to take his place or real options in the free agent market this year. 3. Free agents: This winter's free agent class is terribly thin so there isn't much help coming, but I'd make two significant moves. *Bring back Wilson Ramos: Ramos is a fairly young free agent and coming off a career year so I'd have to overspend, but the fan base needs to see that things are changing and what better way than bringing back a guy that never should have left. *Sign a closer: The young guys need someone to finish games and Glen Perkins probably can't be that guy. I probably can't afford the top two guys, but I'd sign one guy off this list: Kenley Jansen Aroldis Chapman Mark Melancon Jonathan Papelbon 2017 Major League Roster: The real goal is development, but hopefully while winning more games along the way. I believe this roster can put together a respectable season and maybe even make a run at .500 if things go well. The payroll would probably take a small jump with the free agent signings, but falls somewhere in the $110M range. C: Ramos, Murphy 1B: Mauer, Park or Vargas 2B: Polanco SS: Nunez, Escobar 3B: Sano OF: Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Grossman, Santana SP: Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Duffey, May (Hughes) RP: Melancon, Kintzler, Pressly, Rogers, Tonkin, Chargois, Meyer (Perkins) Well, I made my attempt at fixing the Twins. Let's hear what you've got!

At the start of the conversation I thought each team only protecting 15 players would leave some pretty good players for the expansion teams. After checking that list from 1997, I was mistaken. Not very many players that had long (or successful) major league careers.

I would divide this into 4 groups. The first 3 groups seem like no-brainers. The 4th group would be my toughest decisions. Group 1--The elite young guys that would be chosen in a heartbeat if left unprotected. 1. 3B/DH Miguel Sano 2. OF Byron Buxton 3. SP Jose Berrios 4. OF Max Kepler Group 2--The veterans that have proven to be MLB caliber starters. Even an expansion team needs a couple guys that fans have heard of. This is assuming that Mauer must be protected. This is a disappointingly short list!! 5. 1B Joe Mauer 6. 2B Brian Dozier Group 3--The second tier of prospects that may very well get picked. Some of these guys have had some struggles or injuries, but they're too valuable to risk losing. 7. SS Nick Gordon 8. SP Stephen Gonsalves 9. IF Jorge Polanco 10. RP Nick Burdi 11. SP Kohl Stewart 12. RP JT Chargois Group 4--The tough decisions. In my world, here is where you're doing a lot of guessing (what route will the expansion team take, who has the highest ceiling) and making decisions about when the Twins are building for. I'm an optimist and think that things can change very quickly with a few young guys developing, so I'm keeping a couple guys that I think can be part of a playoff team in 2018. 13. RP Trevor May 14. SP Kyle Gibson 15. SP Tyler Duffey Who do I expect to lose? Here would be my next 9 players. Following Seth's rules, I could protect 6 of these guys as the draft went on and I'd likely lose 3 of them. 16. OF Eddie Rosario 17. OF Adam Brett Walker 18. IF Eduardo Nunez 19. RP Taylor Rogers 20. SP Lewis Thorpe 21. RP Alex Meyer 22. OF Daniel Palka 23. SP Fernando Romero 24. RP Ryan Pressley

My last roster spot went to Park, but he could certainly go to AAA for a month or two and be replaced by a 13th pitcher or Danny Santana.

My 10 goals for the next few months if I'm GM. 1. Trade Plouffe, Abad, Nolasco, and Jepsen for whatever you can get. *These guys have no value heading into 2017. (Edit: as I've typed, Nolasco and Jepsen have pitched today. Just release both of them, no one will give us anything) 2. Test the trade market for Dozier, Nunez, and E. Santana. *No point in giving away Dozier, Nunez, or Santana, but if you can get the right package pull the trigger. 3. Move Sano to 3B (5 days/week) and DH (2 days/week). *He's not an outfielder and never will be. Find out if he can handle anything other than DH. 4. Stretch out May and get him in the rotation by August. *We know he can be a pretty good reliever when healthy. Find out if he can be a pretty good starter because they have more value than pretty good relievers. 5. Continue to give playing time to Buxton and Kepler. *I know Buxton is struggling and Kepler will slump eventually. They need to play through it and gain experience. 6. Call up Murphy, Polanco, and Rosario. *Figure out a way to get them in the line-up 4-5 days a week and try to figure out what they can do. 7. Get Berrios at least 10 more major league starts. *I don't see why he can't work on the same things whether at the ML or AAA level. 8. Call up Chargois and Meyer. *They're 25 and 26 years old. Let them sink or swim. 9. Don't let Suzuki get to his vesting option. *I don't care how good he's been for the past 2 weeks, he won't be a part of the next Twins playoff team so there's no reason to have him here in 2017. 10. Figure out 2 or 3 free agents that can help the Twins win the next few years and be aggressive early in the offseason. *This is a very week class, but maybe Ian Desmond and Kenley Jansen. My August roster assuming that Plouffe, Abad, Jepsen, Nolasco and Nunez are gone: IF: Murphy, Suzuki, Mauer, Park, Dozier, Escobar, Sano, Polanco OF: Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Grossman SP: Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Duffey, Milone RP: Meyer, Pressly, Chargois, Boshers, Rogers, Tonkin, Ramirez, Kintzler

Park and Buxton (with Rosario not suffering a sophomore slump a distant 3rd) are absolutely the two biggest X-factors in this whole equation. Having said that, Here are my April and July line-ups assuming the two of them are having success. April 1. Dozier 2. Mauer 3. Sano 4. Plouffe 5. Park/Arcia 6. Rosario 7. Escobar 8. Suzuki/Murphy 9. Buxton July 1. Buxton 2. Mauer 3. Sano 4. Plouffe 5. Dozier 6. Park/Arcia 7. Rosario 8. Murphy/Suzuki 9. Escobar

Vargas is an interesting case to me. If Park proves to be a major league caliber baseball player, is there really any scenario (outside of a Park/Mauer injury) in which Vargas is valuable to the Twins? Mauer would really have to struggle to lose a spot in the line-up and by the time that happens there is a good chance that Sano may have to transition to a 1B/DH type. This leaves me with a couple questions (both with the assumption that Park can hit). 1. How many options does Vargas have left? 2. If Vargas rakes at AAA, does he have value in a trade?

You stole a few of my ideas, but here are my 5 surprises for 2016. 1. Ervin Santana comes out of the gate strong and has 12 wins and an ERA under 3.00 at the All-star break. He doesn't make the All-star team which upsets many Twins fans and #smellbaseball is a trending topic in Minneapolis for about a week. 2. Byron Buxton breaks camp with the big league team and after a slow start, winds up hitting .290 with 15 home runs and 45 stolen bases. He runs away with AL rookie of the year honors. 3. Alex Meyer is sent down to AAA in April, but comes back soon and ends the season with an ERA under 2.50 and a K/9 of over 10. He also picks up 10 saves in August/September after Glen Perkins is traded to the 1st place Indians at the trade deadline. 4. Miguel Sano learns to play a decent right field and it has no impact on him at the plate. He finishes in the top 5 of the American League in each of the following categories: Home runs: 39 (5th) Walks: 105 (4th) Intentional walks: 15 (3rd) OBP: .380 (4th) OPS: .930 (5th) RBI: 111 (4th) Strikeouts: 218 (1st) MVP voting: 5th 5. Eduardo Escobar is the Twins 2nd All-star representative (along w/ Sano). Escobar shows that the 2nd half of 2015 wasn't a fluke as he hits .275 with 16 home runs and an OPS over .760 Bonus offseason 2016 prediction: If you read #3 above, you realize that I don't think the Twins will be in the race throughout all of 2016. However, with the progress made by Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and other young players, the Twins are the trendy pick to win the AL Central in 2017 and Vegas puts their over/under at 91 wins. Posters on Twins Daily are livid that Terry Ryan doesn't break the bank to sign Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman, as they are sure that they are the two missing pieces to a 2017 world championship.

To sum up my point of view: *I'm not Terry Ryan's biggest supporter and I wouldn't have been upset if he left with Gardy last year. *Most fans have short memories and want immediate results that aren't very realistic. *I'm willing to give TR another 1-2 years to show that he can surround the young talent with veterans. *I'd much rather have a little patience like the Twins than have some hyper aggressive GM that treats a franchise like a fantasy team (see AJ Preller and the 2015 Padres) For a fun read, check out this July 2012 article about Dayton Moore. http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/7/18/3166552/dayton-moore-and-historic-levels-of-losing As a tease, here is part of one quote from the article. "the idea of the Royals contending and winning the World Series in 2014 requires quite a bit of squinting and praying that the pitching staff issues will work themselves out by then."

Those need to happen in the next year or two. If they don't, I'll agree that Ryan is different than Dayton Moore and should be replaced. However, right now, what TR is doing looks very, very similar to what Moore did between 2006 and 2012.

By the way, Dayton Moore also inked these contracts. Gil Meche 5 yr/$55M (in 2006 when $11M was a lot of money) Jeremy Guthrie 3 yr/$25M Looks a lot like the Nolasco and Hughes signings to me.

You simply have a different view of what aggressive means. The Shannon Stewart is virtually identical to the Royals' trade for Zobrist. Dayton Moore hung on to guys like Moustakas and Hosmer while they struggled and preached patience. I'm guessing you could find a million forums from 2011 that rip Moore to shreds for doing exactly what Terry Ryan is doing right now. I'm all for ripping TR to shreds if Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc. show they're ready to carry this team to the playoffs and he doesn't do anything in July or next December.