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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Good post. Some good and noteworthy suggestions. Some good follow up from the crew and some good laughs. Ted Williams? Bobble head and ice pack days? Really? Priceless! Lol I really love this year's team. We are not where we need to be yet. But we're watching young players, mostly, from inside the organization and recent additions really growing in front of our eyes. The team is competitive most every game, giving them a chance, and keeping us around .500 so far, with room for more. Arcia and Willingham back helps a lot. Mauer being Mauer would help a ton. SS is no longer a black hole. The rotation is taking shape. Just need one more starter. Hate to say it as I want to avoid the whole AAAA player format, but maybe Johnson in place of Correia, for now at least, until later in the year when May, Meyer, Darnell may be ready for their shot? Where I'm going to continue to disagree is with some mass firing of Gardy and half of his staff. Unconvential to say the least, especially during the season, and I feel unwarranted. (note* I am not excusing some major off season blunders made) You can call me a homer if you wish, but I honestly don't understand the vitriol towards members of our staff. I don't always agree with Gardy. Never have, never will. But like Kelly, he plays his whole roster. When given decent talent, he's won, and won well and often. And his players are very loyal and enjoy playing for him. I don't feel he's suddenly just lost the ability to manage. More talent to work with this year than the last three, suddenly his team is competitive again. The Twins employ a philosophy similar to the Dodgers and Orioles that proved successful for decades: run a complete system from the minors to the majors, hire good people, and promote good people from within. Yes, you need some fresh blood here and there, no question. But it's a proven formula as long as you guard against stagnation. Both Ullger and Vavra have had quality success at the milb and ML level previously. They've earned praise when the Twins won, and like Gardy, are chastised over the past poor few seasons. And I just don't understand all the Anderson angst. From Kelly and Such to Gardy and Anderson the Twins have enjoyed quality bullpens for most seasons over 20+ plus seasons, using talent from within and without. It's almost been a trademark of Twins teams. Ask Detroit how hard it is to build a bullpen. But this is due to what? Luck? Or the bullpen coach? Nope. When the Twins have been walking to score runs this season Bruno and the lineup have been praised. The Twins, historically, have been amongst the most stingy teams in the league season after season in allowing walks to the opposition. But we can only complain about a lack of strikeouts. Who was the pitching coach for part of Radke's career, as well as CyYoung winner Santana's and young phenom Liriano's breakthrough, before injury, and a couple solid seasons before his head got turned around? Until Hughes this year, Gibson and Nolasco potentially, what SO potential pitchers has Anderson really had to work with in the rotation the past few years? And to those of us that love Deduno, who has harnessed his wild abilities to make him a quality ML SP, as long as he's healthy? Perkins has been groomed in to a top closer. Burton found new life here. So has Fien. Duensing and Thielbar are becoming/have become a dual LH relief combo that most teams would kill to have. For whatever reason, Swarzak has struggled this season. But who's been the pitching coach the past few seasons when he's been almost indispensable at times? We could rant at times about pitchers provided for our staff, moves made and not made. But I don't feel the blame falls on Anderson. Just my opinion.
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Article: Twins Playing Over Their Heads, But That's OK
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Playing above their heads? Yes. Perhaps. At least at times. Kubel and Colabello provided a huge lift for the first month. An unexpected lift, and compensated for early injuries to Willingham and Arcia. Now they are back, Colabello down, and Kubel gone soon. Wonder if he will accept an assignment to Rochester with the idea of trying to find a little more magic left for a late season call up? Regardless, Fuld will take his spot soon. If not, probably Romero, who I said in ST not to fall asleep on. So many great posts here, I'd love to just copy and paste to make the perfect commentary. Lol This team IS interesting, and fun to watch most days simply because unlike so much of the time the past 3 years, they are actually competitive and in games. Winning and a chance to win is a good thing! The bad is obvious, starting with injuries in the OF. Mauer not yet hitting like Mauer. Correia and Pelfrey regressing and not pitching like last season or expectations, Hicks' struggles, the SS situation. Nolasco being inconsistent so far. The good is actually pretty darn good. Dozier improving and proving himself. Plouffe is really starting to grow up. Pinto is the real deal, just needs Gardy to put him in the lineup 80% of the time and C a little more as the season goes along. Suzuki, healthy, a change of scenery, playing about every day, even with expected regression, is doing a great and clutch job. Escobar, finally getting his chance, is proving he's a solid ball player. Despite struggles, Hicks is still better than last year, is maintaining a surprising OB, and with work and a change to only batting RH, might be worth watching over the rest of the season. Santana is really intriguing! No doubt the kid has things to work on, but he's been a spark and breath of fresh air who actually seems to have an idea at the plate, doesn't appear lost, and is anything but intimidated. Hope nobody reminds him he's a rookie and isn't supposed to be playing like this. And playing is a key, like Punto, he needs to play. Hughes is throwing the best of his career. I'm not sure we should be surprised, but what a great story. Gibson has been good, occasionally excellent. A few growing pains sure, but that's to be expected. Deduno is back where he belongs, has looked solid, and will probably be even better as he stretches out. Nolasco has shown flashes, won tonight, and betting he begins to turn the corner really soon. With injuries and some disappointments and inconsistencies, the team has still been decent and playing .500 ball. Not saying we're going to make a playoff run, but with Arcia and Willingham back, SS settling down, four solid to good starters, Mauer hopefully clicking the way Mauer does hopefully soon, Dozier, the youngsters growing up...yes...this is an interesting team to watch. Health, a couple moves that still need to be made, this team has a very good chance of finishing above .500 in my opinion. -
Article: Twins Draft Preview: Mock Draft v.2.0
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Am I the only one still in on Turner? A possible steal due to a good but not great season who was supposed to be a top 3 pick who could slide to us now. Older, more experienced and closer to the majors than Gordon and with more speed. Anyone? -
Actually, I really like the lineup except for one thing, no Pinto! I fully support the long standing Twins tradition of everyone playing. It keeps the whole roster involved and sharp. And I get Nunez playing against his former team. But take Nunez out for Pinto, and I really like the way it sets up overall. However, while not a bad move in general, I'm not sure about Dozier in the 2 spot. In theory it might provide him with more RBI opportunities, but he's doing so well at lead off I hesitate moving him from there. I still like him at 1, and mix and match Santana, Escobar, Hicks and even Nunez on occasion at 2.
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Perhaps I'm a homer at heart, but not going to agree with the firing of most of the staff. A big, big Gardy fan even though I have disagreed with him at times. And to be fair, he's been handed a short deck at times this season as well as the last 3. I've seen a slight switch in the Twins this season in regard to moving to the younger players, and pulling the trigger faster when needed on under performers. Examples include Bartlett, who was cooked if he didnt retire, riding Thielbar and Tonkin early on until Tonkin's recent demotion, demoting Florimon and giving Escobar his shot, keeping Pinto, promoting Santana over Bernier, and there are a couple other examples. My problem with Gardy is simple though, you have to get the kids in the lineup most days. They have to play! And while Tonkin's recent struggles might mean some time at Rochester is warranted, not a big fan of the Guerrier promotion. Really? Guerrier over Pino or just letting Tonkin working through things? I guess a shot to a veteran just to see what you might get isn't all together bad, as long as he's on a very short leash. Also a huge fan of Kubel, but it's time. A fan of what Guerrier once meant, but there isn't much left, despite getting his FIRST SO in today's game. Pinto just about every day. Escobar just about every day. But you've got to play Santana just about every day as well. Pelfrey and Correia need to move on, in whatever manner that implies or takes place. The question there is who fills that #5 spot in the rotation. Right NOW, I hesitate to promote Meyer or May. I think they, and the Twins, are better served by another few weeks to a month at Rochester. I keep saying not to fall asleep on Darnell, though I'd also like to see him get a few more starts and innings. For the short term, what about Johnson? I don't want to play the AAAA player rotation game again, but, he's having a second strong AAA campaign. Could we give him a shot for a month or so while waiting for other prospects to further get ready? Could he really be any worse while we wait?
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Not going to bash Herrmam. I think that's unfair. Couple years ago Baseball America rated him our best milb C defensively. He's a good enough athlete, with experience at other positions, to develop in to a decent bench player. That being said, I don't want him up! He needs time at AAA to work on his hitting, which projects to decent with some contact and gap power with occasional HR power. But he can't develop in to much of anything if yo-yo'ed constantly. And unless I have just forgot something, in all the time Gardy has managed, and had Mauer and Redmond in the lineup, I recall a single game we had to uncover the DH. Suzuki has done everything expected of him and much more. No reason for him to lose the starting gig at this point. But as Seth said, if playing 7 games, Pinto can catch 2 of them, DH at least 3 if not 4 of them. With Hammer and Arcia back up, we actually have the makings of a regular, full time roster. Guys like Santana also have to play. But this thread is about Pinto. And Pinto is not only a part of our future, his not a AAA player. He is one of our top performers this season. It's downright negligent and ridiculous for him to not be in the lineup in once capacity or another most every day.
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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Mock Draft v.2.0
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Soooo torn as to my preference. Hate to state the obvious but Aiken and Rodon hands down, either one. If my arm were twisted, I'd go with Rodon because of his maturity and ability to rise quicker. But, of course, there is probably only something like a 5% chance of either of them sliding to us. I liked Kolek initially, early in the season. But I have lessened my opinion on him as the season has ground down, and I've read more reports on him. A mid to high 90's FB that can hit a 100 is very intriguing to state the obvious. But a lack of control and questions surrounding all of his secondary pitches concerns me. I'm afraid he could end up as a tease. No question the potential is outstanding, and he as a good, large frame that would seem to indicate the velocity is real and can be maintained. But there is a litany of really hard throwers who remain just that over the course of years of baseball prospects. And am I the only one who worries about an 18 y.o. arm already throwing that hard consistently. Jackson, if he's really the hitting prospect he's reported to be, especially if he sticks at C is a great option. No offense to Pinto, but another top offensive C in the system, at least a few years away, is not only not a bad thing, but it's one of those premium positions where it's hard to find a real quality 2-way player. Again, I just don't think there is much of a chance of him lasting to pick 5. I don't think you gamble at #5 on Hoffman and a complete recovery. But it is tempting. Freeland is very tempting with his stuff and being LH. But there are some questions about delivery and follow through. I believe Nola is my choice if we go pitcher. He's been a top and clutch performer in a major conference on major stages his whole career. He's gotten better each year. Not only that, but it appears he's even getting better as THIS season has gone along. If Jackson is gone as expected, that leaves Gordon and Turner as the top position players available. Gordon is reported to be a potentially excellent defensive player. That's important. However, I'm not thrilled by the scouting grades I'm seeing. Perhaps I'm being naive, but for the 5th pick in the draft, do you make the move on a young man who seems to grade 60-65 in his categories? Think about the grades on Buxton and Sano for instance, even though Sano was an amateur signing and not an actual draft choice. Does Gordon at 5, even projectable, compare? Two months ago, Turner was figured to be a top 3 pick who all Twins fans were hoping and praying could somehow slip to 5. A very good season, then a great season, but followed by a good season this year has had him sliding. He rates, or has rated, as a plus hitter and OB performer with plus-plus speed and SB ability. If he can be a good, solid defensive SS, he has real top of the order potential. At worse, a nightmare at the bottom of the order to opposing teams. All this being said, my choices are Nola if we go pitcher, Turner if we go position player. These are real talents, with projectable ability, with college age and experience on big stages in quality leagues. -
No, no and no. Not because its a bad idea. It really isn't. Ultimately, it might be Dozier's best spot. Time will tell. But at this point, especially with a lineup that is scuffling lately, I don't make the move. I don't make it because until recently, it's worked pretty well. And to me, it messes with one special thing that IS working with Dozier at the 1 spot. What I still maintain you do is move Escobar to 2 behind Dozier, and ahead of Mauer in the 3 hole, where he has hit most of his career. Arcia, Willingham, Plouffe and Suzuki hit behind in some combination. Dozier stays where he's been outstanding, Mauer hits where he's used to, and then you bring up what should be some RBI hitters. You might even bat Hicks and Santana in the 2 hole depending on the matchup. And isn't baseball all about matchups? I think that would deepen the lineup overall.
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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Kyle Freeland
DocBauer replied to Eric R Pleiss's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I love this guy. And I'd love for the Twins to snag him. But there's just no way, at this point, you take him at #5. I feel some are falling asleep on Darnell as a possible solid LH starter for us. Kind of reminds me of an Alan Anderson for long-time fans. Nothing great in his arsenal, but solid stuff with control and an idea how to pitch. Though hopefully, with a more sustained career. The Twins have some LH arms in the system to keep an eye on. But other than Gonsalves, who I like very much and feel was a steal, I feel we're lacking a high-upside LHSP. But I think Nola is the way we go for pitching, assuming Kolek is gone. Otherwise, I think we look at Gordon or Turner at SS. Both are reportedly true SS's who don't need to change position. I hear the younger Gordon has great upside to be excellent defensively, and good offensively. But I have to confess I'm not excited by him when I read scouting reports. I keep reading his scaled report card as 60-65 in his skill set. I know this ranks above average in all areas, and there is room for improvement, but no 70's or any 80 compared to the likes of Sano and Buxton at the #5 pick makes me pause. Two months ago, Turner was a top 3 pick that everyone dared dream might fall, somehow, to the Twins at 5 with promises of a good glove, good hit, good OB SS with outstanding speed and SB ability who could help a team at the top of the order. Perhaps quickly. And now, after two great seasons, he has a disappointing "good" season. Am I missing something here? Or could he be a huge steal at #5? -
Scoggins lowers the boom on Twins/Hicks situation
DocBauer replied to jokin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Tons of great feedback! Am I pronounced as wishey-washy if I see and appreciate both sides to all the arguements? A few thoughts. Not just speaking of Hicks at this time, but can we please use this example to temper some of our expectations toward prospects, even top prospects? The Trouts and Harpers of the world are very rare. Going back further, Griffey and A-Roid come to mind. Hope and excitement had many calling for Sano and Buxton to be up this season by the all-star break. And there have been calls for Meyer to have been called up a couple weeks ago. No matter how talented the player, And his sky-high ceiling, there are still learning curves involved. BTW, some have argued that Hicks should have been ready after 5 milb seasons. But, he was a HS signing. Gomez was up after only 3 seasons, but didnt hit until his 5th ML season. And Hunter spent all or part of 7 seasons in the minors. So there is no exact time table. 2) Losing Mastro and Presley is really not an issue. Presley is a AAAA journeyman who gave us a decent month or so. Mastro never would have been exposed if not for his bad ankle injury. To this point, he just hasn't been the player he glimpsed to be in 2012. And trading both Span and Revere have proved to be good moves so far. Meyer and May are very, very talented young pitchers having very good seasons at Rochester. In fact, each, in their very first taste of AAA, despite some uneven performances, are probably exceeding expectations thus far. Not based on talent and potential mind you, just at having hit AAA for the first time. Would anyone undo those two trades if you could? As far as the OF situation as a whole, I will give Gardy, his staff, and the FO a slight mulligan here. Slight. NOBODY goes in to a season expecting to lose BOTH starting corner OF's the first few weeks of the season, and a quality 4th OF. It just doesn't usually happen, and can't be planned for, really, or expected. And let's be honest here, the Twins have hovered around .500 despite issues at SS and the OF, getting quality production in the interim from Colabello and Kubel that nobody expected. In fact, tip of the cap to what those guys did for us the first month, and Gardy and his staff to piece together lineups that at least sort of worked. What I don't excuse, and haven't in previous threads, is a general lack of attention to any sort of real depth being made available! Trade Span and Revere! But don't go in to 2013 with only Hicks and Mastro as your sole options. And after what happened in 2013, even if you try to make some sort of excuse, don't you dare head in to 2014 with Hicks, wounded Mastro, and a so-so journeyman Presley as your only options! Who else were you banking on for ML or milb depth? Kubel? Parmelee? I don't care how big a stud Buxton is and will be, or the overall depth of some good prospects for the OF in A ball, those guys aren't ready yet. There is simply no excuse to have come in to this season without one more solid 4th OF/CF option available, and even another AAAA corner OF who could at least be called up and expected to play the position. I believe blaming Antony is a mistake. He got thrust in to a situation. Ryan is still the guy in charge, and was through the bulk of the offseason. And Gardy as the field manager has to take blame too. I just don't know what they were thinking. Despite all the good they do, have done, etc, this one is a black mark. 3) Whatever ultimately befalls Hicks in regard to his conversion to an exclusively RH hitter, I think it's the best and smartest move. Now, for it to happen during the season at the ML level is a different story open to debate, which is exactly what we're doing here. On the surface, yes, this should take place at Rochester, at least initially. But that luxury doesn't exist at this time. Further, I have to ask and wonder at this point, with his time at the ML level, limited though it may be, is he perhaps better off working with Bruno and/or Molitor at this point anyway on a daily basis? -
Just a clarication in my previous entry, something got cut out accidentally, I was referencing Arcia when I commented I felt in my heart he had borderline stud potential and it was way too early to pigeon hole him as a DH so early in his career. Sorry for the error.
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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Experts Weigh In
DocBauer replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There is no doubt Kolek is talented and tempting. In the long term, might just be the best player available this entire draft. But there is some concern weight wise and secondary stuff. Great reports on Jackson, especially if your are willing to be patient and leave him at C. And I wouldn't be opposed at all to that approach. If the teams before the Twins pick smartly, accordingly, aren't looking for a bargain sign to spend more later, I see it coming down to Jackson or Gordon as a position player, and Nola as the best arm available. The baseball draft has always been, still is, about the BPA even more than other sports due to the minor league development time. However, that doesn't mean you don't draft based upon organizational need. You can never have enough pitching, and I love Nola, but considering the overall depth of pitching talent in the minors, I wonder if SP is our top priority for this draft. The potential of Gordon is excellent in all phases. But while I hate to play a numbers game with a talented youngster with potential that is hard to quantify, I'm not seeing or hearing the equivalent potential of a Sano or Buxton. I know this isn't exact, fair, or ultimately accurate necessarily. But it is what we have to work with. And my pick would be Trea Turner. A month of so ago, everyone was jonesing for the Twins to pick him if he fell to us. A good but down season this year has him falling down the board. But previously, we were talking about a college SS, who might move quickly, who cold field and was a legit SS, who could hit, get on base, provide some gap power, and could run like the wind. It might be a somewhat surprise pick, but I think I'd go with Turner at 5. -
For now, Fuld is out of the equation. I'm sure the Twins know more than we do and have a better idea of what to expect in the fore coming days or weeks in regard. IF Sizmore were waived, and Fuld still on the outside as it appears, I'd say go ahead. We need that other option, probably. But in my honest opinion, I think we've crossed a line with Hicks. I honestly think we've gotten to the point where working at the ML level, working with theTwins coaches, possibly platooning a bit, will be best for him. No offense to our coaches at Rochester, but much like Gomez, I think he needs experience and coaching at this point. Arcia seems more than ready. After the SF series, he comes up and Herrman goes down to get the everyday play he needs. Willingham is getting closer. Maybe a good week? Two at the most? Santana seems the most obvious choice so that he can play every day. But not only is he playing decently, and I'd like to see him more at SS, but at the moment he's probably our best backup CF option. So that leaves Kubel, a veteran with a good start but possibly on fumes now, Colabello, a journeyman struggling lately, or Nunez, a young inf. option deserving of opportunity. Three possibles who deserve time, but also deserve or could be replaced. Pelfrey, despite a half-way Ok start at Rochester, is not ready. Really, really hoping Tonkin comes back strong soon to replace Guerrier and that trades and/of DFA eliminate Pelfrey and/or Correia.
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Love threads like this as we are rebuilding, filled with hope, and I love playing with lineups. I think Plouffe might have potential as an OF for us, if not a DH and super-sub at several positions. Parma just might be figuring out and could be a starting OF, platoon partner, DH, even a LH 3 position super-sub similar to Plouffe. And I believe with all of my heart is a very good player to potential stud who will make his mark at one of the corner OF spots for two reasons. One being he's WAY too young and talented to say he's only a DH at this point. Give him a little time. The kid has already flashed a ML bat at 21 for goodness sake. Hate to be the cautionary voice of reason here, but, I am going to be anyway. Sano's injury stinks big time! But it is not the kind of injury, generally speaking, that should be alarming for a young position player. But it has set his development time frame back. And to expect him to be the starting 3B in May 2015 is probably unrealistic. Which keeps Plouffe there for now. There is nothing serious about Buxton's wrist injury, just nagging and disappointing. I'm not saying he can't be our starting CF by May next year, but he's never had a single game or AB above high A thus far. He's the top prospect in baseball for a very deserved reason. Let's just be a little realistic, let him get healthy, get his legs under himself, get his timing down, and conquer AA first. No matter impatient I am to see him patrolling CF at Target field, I'd honestly be happy to see him kick butt at AA this year, maybe with a cup of coffee at AAA to end the season. As of right now, Hicks is your starting CF to begin the 2015 season. And while on the subject of Hicks, the last thing I'm going to do here is rehash every argument about him that's already been stated by myself and over half the contributors here at TD the past week or so. He got promoted too soon. He's a very talented former to 100 prospect who was untouchable just a year ago. His career has been compared to, almost eerily in comparison to Hunter and Gomez. Carew has been in his ear, as has been Antony and Gardy recently. And don't kid yourself, so has been Bruno and Molitor. We've seen a few early results. Let's see how it plays out. But again, WAY too early to give up on or pigeon hole this kid. Now, Rosario IS an interesting thought. I don't want to mess with Dozier, but I'm also not opposed to the now established Dozier taking a shot at SS if Rosario shows something at 2B. And when the suspension is lifted, I would keep him at 2B for now. Why wouldn't you? He could end up there. He could have increased trade value at 2B if that's the direction we move. Or he could end up being an OF who can also cover 2B. But even if he converts fully to the OF and never plays 2B again, what do you lose be playing him there for now? A conversion back to the OF should be short and easy. And I absolutely disagree that he doesn't have the bat for the OF, or corner OF. He will only be 22 this season. He has advanced a full level every season through only 4 seasons, and has never repeated a season at any level. His quad slash over those is a very impressive: 308/359/517/876. The only negatives you could possibly find with his numbers is a little higher OB to compare to his batting average, and the ability to translate his quality speed to a few more SB's. But these are also things that can be coached and worked on. He's an excellent athlete who can flat out hit. I've read articles where some doubt his power potential. 21 HR's in 2011 at Elizabethton when he went head to head with Sano for league leading numbers. He had 13 in 2012. Is he a true power hitter? Probably not. But again, only 22, ready to hit AA again soon, then hopefully AAA, never repeating a level, I'm not sure we know yet what his power potential may be. Like Sano and Buxton, I'm being realistic and not expecting to be ready for May 2015. But all the tools are there to be a big contributor, all around offensively. It has never been written that a corner OF has to be a bomber to be a major offensive contributor. In fact, I'm reminded fondly of Micky Hatcher in the 80's doing a fantastic job in LF as the Twins #2 hitter. He produced Avg., OB, some extra base power, and the ability to move runners. Rosario could be this and much, much more. But again, it takes some time. For 2015, to start at the very least, Arcia in a corner, Hicks in CF, thinking Parmalee might actually be figuring things out, might be at least a part of the equation. This leaves room for a Colabello, or a Plouffe depending on lineup. Thinking we might be a half season away from having the primary OF we want.
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Article: The Maturation of Trevor Plouffe
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Plouffe has equally frustrated and intrigued me the past few seasons. We have seen him mature slowly but surely as a milb player. We have seen flashes of a real MLB bat with power, along with maddening inconsistency. Despite some poor errors, I've never been as down on his defense as others. Perhaps I missed what others have witnessed, but when I've watched him in the field I've seen a decent glove, decent range, and a good strong arm. I am not yet convinced he's a good choice as a number 3 hitter, as he's been used so far this season. But I have to say that even after his recent dip and struggles, I've been pleased and surprised that he's still been maintaining contact and a good OB. And his doubles production has been very pleasing. He's one of those guys I've been maintaining, as Christie alluded to here, that needs those referenced 1500-2000 AB's to get where he needs to. I'm still really unsure what his ceiling is. A doubles machine with some OB and decent defense with a little homer power? Or does he truly have that 20+ HR power he has flashes along with that decent defense and good OB he's starting to show. I know this much, his approach and seeming comfort level at the plate is vastly improved. And his defense also appears to have reached another level. Give Plouffe all the credit in the world for working on his game and making himself a better ball player. Not going to annoint him, just yet, as an integral piece to the future and this rebuild. But whether at 3B with Sano moving, which I don't see, or 1B, OF or super utility, he's making a real arguement this year to be a part of things. I also believe this is yet another example of Bruno's outstanding work. While Plouffe's ceiling is still in question, I believe he has raised his floor somewhat significantly. -
Article: Are we giving Aaron Hicks a raw deal?
DocBauer replied to Greg Logan's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not denying the Twins haven't handled Hicks very well. Been beating that drum for two offseasons now. But so many former Twins who are better than what we have but didn't want to pay them? Could definitely argue about a big mistake about Hunter. Smaller arguement about Cuddyer. But who else? -
Herrman goes down to play every day again. And hopefully he continues to rake down there to get him ready for September and 2015 where he just might to prove to be a really good asset. But his yo-yo-ing is hard. That makes room for Arcia. Hammer...I'm not convinced Santana goes down. No question the talented youngster needs to play. So far, Gardy's done a decent job of doing that, though I think he could do better. So far, the kid has played well. More so, he hasn't looked out of place or intimidated. And that may be more important than his production in the short term. Right now, he's also our best option as a backup CF, as Fuld might be on the Koskie-Morneau-Mauer concussion injury train. More than likely, Nunez moves back down. At least for the now. I'm not ready to just give up on Colabello. He's defied all that could be thrown at him until recently. But for Kibel, it might just be time to admit he's done. He had a good month or so left in him, surprising everyone, but ultimately, there's just nothing left. Any move here allows Hammer to come back up. (Though not ready yet) Pelfrey is a different matter. He's had one decent AAA start. He's been as bad or almost as bad as Correia so far. Are you really going to pull Deduno out of the rotation for him? I know he's only had an appearance or two, and I know the Twins wanted to give hm a shot, but the G-man needs to go. Nothing he's done in the minors or majors indicates he has anything left. Perhaps this offers room for Pelfrey. At least until Tonkin kicks butt and is ready to come up again. Seconf half of the season, at this point, traded or just cut loose, no really good reason Correia and Pelfrey aren't both just gone in favor of Meyer, May, Darnell or even Johnson. Tonkin will be back. If and when Fuld is ready to come back, Santana might move down. It's also possible Colabello goes down to make adjustments, or Kubes could just be done. This would also allow Nunez to stay. Month from now, however it plays out, expecting and/or hoping Correia, Pelfrey, Guerrier are probably gone. Tonkin back up in the pen. One of the affor-mentioned pitchers fill out the rotation. Fuld comes back healthy and recovered, this means Santana sent down, Colabello sent down, or Kubes DFA.
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I'm really believing to believe Plouffe has a future with the Twins. The next Cuddyer? Hmmmm. Wait and see about that. Like your idea here Stringer, see where you're headed. But I'm not convinced that Sano, even fully healthy which I expect, will be ready to take over 3B immediately. Think Plouffe may still be there. I still maintain real belief that Buxton will rake enough the rest of this season to warrant a real shot at the starting CF job next season. Arcia will definitely flank him. Call me an optimist, but have a really good feeling about Parmelee turning a corner and maybe being the other corner OF.
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Thank you for this post. Well thought out and thorough. EVERY relief pitcher has bad outings that can inflate their numbers. A bad stretch of a couple games can really distort numbers. See Burton last year at one point. But Fien has been borderline outstanding since signed. Obviously, this is yet another sign that Anderson stinks as a pitching coach. (tongue, obviously, firmly planted in cheek)
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Article: Are we giving Aaron Hicks a raw deal?
DocBauer replied to Greg Logan's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To echo Jokin....THIS. I ran through Hicks' milb stats and compared them to Gomez and Hunter both to satisfy my own curiosity. While Hicks has not completed his second year in ML ball, I also looked at first couple of seasons of the three. I posted those comparisons in another Hicks thread, and to be honest, I just don't have the ambition to post them all again here. LOL In brief, Hunter spent the most time in the minors, Gomez the least, which was probably a mistake considering his 4+ year struggle to establish much. Other than SB numbers, Hicks out performed the others in Avg/OB/Slugging and OPS in almost every category. I used these other two in comparison for obvious reasons, they were both Twins, Hunter signed by the Twins, Hunter sent down by the Twins after his debut, and because others have been using them as comparisons. Look, I know milb number comparisons are not a be-all or end-all. But they are a good reference point to use in this situation: 3 athletic, multi-talented young CF's employed by the Twins who encountered rough spots early on, who were all top 100 prospects, and all 3 probably promoted too soon based on potential, need, hope and want. Interestingly, Hunter didnt really produce until his age 24 season. And his age 25 season showed real improvement. Gomez's best season was his first at age 22, followed by three other non-descript to poor seasons until showing some real life at age 26, his 5th year. (With Milwaukee unfortunately) And Hicks, still early in his second season, is 25. This not any sort of exact science! But the numbers and parallels are very interesting. I think there is no doubt Hicks was rushed due to hope, talent and need. And I'm not going to rehash the bungling situation in CF the past couple of season by the FO. And numbers simply can't measure the progress of every single ball player and pigeon-hole them in to a formula. That would be stupid, short-sighted and unfair. And I simply can't address comparable defensive metrics, production and potential. But I hope this provides some interesting perspective at least. Give the kid a break, enjoy the ride, watch what the coaching staff can do with him the rest of the season and hold out judgement for now. -
Article: Twins Draft Preview: Aaron Nola
DocBauer replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Isn't it funny how the perception of draft prospects changes after a few weeks to a month or so. (The recent, later than normal, NFL draft is a perfect example with Bridgewater as a target). Just a month or so ago, most everyone really, really held out hope SS Turner would SOMEHOW slide to #5 for us. Now, he's being treated almost as an also-ran because his good senior season isn't as good as his last two seasons. I think you always draft, to a degree, based on team need. In baseball, it's not just at the ML level. With very little exception, anyone drafted in the baseball draft, unlike the NFL or NBA where you hope to plug in fairly quickly, is going to be at least 3 years away from filling any holes and contributing. But unlike the other two sports, you're not just drafting for ML club need down the road, but more due to lack of depth at specific positions within the entire organization. Obviously, the more prospects at a given position, the better chance one is going to develop and stick. That being said, with the vague nature of player development within baseball, I think you have to be very cognizant of the BPA. Similar to the Vikings when they chose the likes of Randy Moss and Adrian Peterson, for example. Each of those years, the Vikings didnt have a real need for either of those players, but they were supreme talents who could make an impact, and did. For example, with the Twins, if the best player available at #5 this year was a stud 3B, even though we have Sano, would you pass on him to take a "lesser" talent to stock another position? It's an interesting discussion and dilemma. Especially because whoever it is, even if they turn out to be what you hope, you aren't plugging them in to 2015. You can never have enough pitching. Guys get hurt, guys don't develop. Failed starters can end up making good to excellent relievers. Perkins, Duensing, Swarzak would be just a few recent examples for the Twins. Now, I don't know if Nola's arm has been abused in college or not. Always a big concern when drafting college arms, especially the top arms. If healthy, I really like Nola for his experience, fortitude, and stuff and potential. And I really like his delivery. I'm surprised from his numbers that his control doesn't have a higher rating. Seems like a little better control with his breaking pitch, whatever it might be, with his FB and change, he very well could be a very solid/good #2-3 who might climb quickly. Love it. But that being said, overall, when examining the top talents of the BPA at #5, and organizational depth, is a pitcher like Nola the best pick at this time? Have read that Johnson's proposed move to the OF instead of C is not due to his ability to stick at C, but simply to move his bat more quickly along. Gordon offers great bloodlines, a solid (possibly not great) set of overall skills along with great defensive ability. And everything I've ever heard or read about Turner would seem to indicate he is a legitimate SS who doesn't have to move. Gordon might have the best ceiling, Turner the more proven player at this point, with even better speed, who can reach the majors quicker, and thus might make him a "safer" choice. Turner's only problem may that he's having a poorer season than the past two, whether that be injury, being pitched around, or just bad luck. Again, a month or so ago, we would all be clamoring for him to be the pick if available. The Twins actually have a few decent C's to watch the next couple of years besides Pinto. With patience, Johnson might be better than all of them. The Twins also have a few intriguing prospects at SS in Santana, Polanco and Goodrum who might settle the position for the long term. Gordon might be better than any of them. Turner might just be a quicker to rise and safer pick. NOT to knock his ceiling potential. His "down" senior season is still good, as has been his career, as is his potential. Push come to shove, my short list at pick #5 is Nola or Turner. -
Are we giving Aaron Hicks a raw deal?
DocBauer commented on Greg Logan's blog entry in Bloop Singles
Yes. At this point, yes. Wish I could copy and paste some interesting stats to provide perspective and thoughts I posted on another thread. They reside in the Hicks switch hitting thread if interested. Its just to early to rush to judgement when he's learning and was jumped straight from AA. -
Pi(c)tcher These Rotation Options Soon
DocBauer posted a blog entry in A Realistic Fix to the 2014 Twins
Is it actually possible that for the first time since Santana was a second year player in the bullpen pounding at the door to be let in to the rotation, that the Twins may soon have too much depth in the rotation? Cough or snicker for a moment if you must and then consider the following: Nolasco is still a relatively young veteran SP signed for production, innings and consistency for 3 more years after this. He's coming off a couple solid seasons and his very best season. And after a rough start to this year, he's looking very much like the player we thought we were signing. The even younger and more talented Hughes is looking like a borderline stud. He's pitching like, or better, than hoped, and might be really finding himself with the Twins, and away from NY and Yankee stadium. (Is it too soon for an ironic, sarcastic "Anderson sucks" reference?) In his first full, completely healthy and one assumes unlimited season, Gibson is looking very much like the player we've been waiting for and wish we had had last season. Late bloomer Deduno, he of the best SP numbers on the staff last season before injury, is back in the rotation where he seems to belong, and off to a good start. Again, I worry about total IP limitations on him, but he just might be the best 170 IP, 28 starts #5 starter in baseball. Correia is gone at the end of this season, if not before. Unless he pulls some real magic out of his cap, Pelfrey may be following him out of town. Even if he does rebound somewhat, he might be gone for a bag of balls or nothing else as the Twins can not only afford to eat his contract next season, but there may simply be better options available as early as the second half of this season. As the numbers stand as of today, AAA Rochester is brimming with a trio of arms that should be ready soon. May: 3.35 ERA, 43 IP, 30 H, 17 BB, 47 SO, 1.09 Whip in 8 starts Meyer: 3.79 ERA 40.1 IP, 31 H, 21 BB, 49 SO, 1.29 Whip in 8 starts Darnell: 2.32 ERA, 31 IP, 26 H, 11BB, 33 SO, 1.19 Whip in 6 starts Two top, hard throwing prospects with big frames, IP and SO potential each having great success in their first seasons of AAA. Yes, they are young and have things to learn and work on and probably need more consistency. But numbers and reports don't always lie. And these two represent the best two top pitching prospects the Twins have had since probably Garza. And while each could most certainly be ready for serious competition in 2015 SP, I would argue that each may just be ready by the second half of the season. Yes the Twins want to win, and we want them to do so. But it's a very real possibility that either, or both, of these young men will give us the best chance to do so soon. After all, we are in rebuilding mode aren't we? And there is no question that talent and potential of May and Meyer blow away Correia and Pelfrey. But don't fall asleep on Darnell. The former top 10 pick doesn't throw as hard as May or Meyer, but reports have him consistently in the low 90's, left handed, never a bad thing, and according to recent reports from Darnell himself here at TD in an interview, gaining further comfort and confidence this season with his curve and change. His milb numbers don't look awesome at first glance, but the Twins did push him hard his second season, pitching at 3 different levels. His 3rd season was spent entirely at AA with mixed results, however, it was his first full season at the level, and only the second season of 3 where he was allowed to stay at a level. He has held a 3.41 ERA through his first 4+ seasons and a 2.55-1 SO to BB ratio. Still only 25, already with a cup of coffee with the Twins this season, interrupting his AAA season, working what may or may not be his first full season at Rochester, he's having the best season of his young career. Correia gone end of year if not sooner, Pelfrey's Twins career hanging by a thread with the ability to cut him loose.....are we looking at Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Deduno, May, Meyer and Darnell by next season? Or the second half of this season? -
Article: Revisiting Aaron Hicks and Switch-Hitting
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is a roughly accurate, admittedly not 100% stat break down for consideration. Read a lot of posts pertaining to Hicks, he is definitely a hot topic, and grew very curious about some numbers. Just some comparable numbers to chew on, digest and ponder. Player A. 5 primary season in the minors: 275/380/426/806 Ages 18-22 Player B. 3 primary seasons in the minors: 277/345/397/742 Ages 19-21 Player C. 7 primary seasons in the minors: 269/334/418/752 Ages 18-24 *Player C's stats somewhat skewed by a big half season plus after milb demotion As intelligent and well informed as everyone is here at TD, I'm sure most can recognize a pattern here, all three players having played with the Twins previously, and probably even some very good guesses who the players might be. Player A: Hicks Player B: Carlos Gomez Player C: Torii Hunter Now, SB wise, Gomez blows Hicks and Hunter away. Otherwise, as milb numbers go, Hicks's milb career rates ahead of the other former Twins in virtually every category. Is this a be-all tell-all? Absolutely not. But every prospect starts somewhere. And I think this comparison is important as people blast and rally against a still very young and inexperienced Hicks. Further, for better or worse, Gomez was promoted very early, seeing extensive action as a 22y.o. I've read arguements how he compares better to Hicks due to said early promotion. Considering the results, I have to disagree at this being a positive. For what it's worth, his composite numbers for those 4 seasons, ages 22-25 were: 240/289/364/654 with his best season being the first. Not exactly earth shattering. Hunter's first 2 seasons, comparable at age 24&25 were: 268/314/394/708 with his second season numbers better than his first. Hicks' first season: 192/259/338/597 So far this season: 198/339/271/610 Nothing about this is meant to excuse the Twins for not addressing alternatives for the CF situation last season and this one. Nor is it meant as a precursor that Hicks will also achieve future all-star status. And it is definitely no excuse for Hicks not to work or prepare properly as has been pointed out be Gardy. However, it is interesting to remember how Gomez struggled his first few years, as did Hunter, like Hicks, being sent down to the minors after his initial ML appearance. In fact Hunter and Hicks might be a better comparison in regard to promotion and demotion. And as last reminder, Hicks was promoted, certainly too early, after his AA season. (Quality though it may have been) And again, milb numbers are a guide but not a guarantee. But I find it interesting that Hicks, a former top 100 prospect, deemed untouchable as recent as 2012, had better overall milb stats than Hunter or Gomez. Yes he needs work offensive and defensively. But the recent re-post of cutting Dozier at this time last year, coupled with these numbers here, might offer up some perspective that frustration should be tempered with some patience as well. -
In agreement with Kab and Jokin on several points. Surprised and very, very pleased by Suzuki so far. No doubt he will have a difficult time maintaining what he's done so far. Even for this year, hard to see it continuing to next season. But not only has he done a fabulous for the team this year in many respects, including still allowing Pinto to come along, but there is no sense at this time that his trade value would be worthwhile. FYI, Gladden made a comment over the weekend that Suzuki had some hand issues the past couple of seasons that may have limited his ability to hit properly. Now, in reference to Suzuki's trade value, I mean no disrespect to him. He's an experienced, quality veteran player well thought of. But I believe his value to the Twins is greater than what a return may warrant. I may be wrong, but a few down years hitting before this season, not a power hitter, could the Twins really receive a quality, high-end prospect to make a trade worthwhile? I think the Twins have some pretty good C prospects in the lower minors, but not ready yet. And as I've stated, I'm a Herrman fan. Again, don't feel he's ready yet as he's done a lot of yo-yo-ing the past couple of seasons. Not only has Pinto been very productive this season, but I think he's been decent behind the plate. Hopefully he continues to grow and learn and is indeed ready to take over by next season. But you still need a solid backup. I'm not sure what it would take to extend Suzuki. But considering the Twins positive financial situation, it would hurt nothing to sign him for another year or two at another 2.5 or 3M per would it?

