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Everything posted by DocBauer
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At his age and with his stuff, and a good contract, I see no reason to trade Perkins at this time. Not every closer can expect to pitch as long and as well as Rivera did, obviously, but healthy, most top closers have shown the ability to pitch at a high level until 34-36. I see Perkins as an anchor for this team as it continues/completes it's rebuild over the next couple of years.
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Yes! Still very hopeful for Pinto to turn in to a solid everyday player. I have to say when he was the #1 to close out 2013, I didn't think he played that poorly. Which is why I give pause at times this year when I hear comments about work needed, or others who might doubt him. I am right there on the Twins catcher depth. Turner, especially if he can hit just a little to go with his defense and OK power potential, Garver might be an even better prospect. Navaretto and Swim are very young, but it appears the potential is there. Also agree Koch may be a sleeper. He's got some potential with the bat, and might make for a nice backup. Thrylos and I are both on the Herrman bandwagon. I simply don't know why there are those who dismiss him so strongly. He's a solid athlete, much better than average compared to most catchers, and has a solid line-drive LH bat with some pop and occasional power. Baseball America certainly has said nice things in the past, as was pointed out. The only reason I can find for any negative perception is he was promoted early, didn't flash, and was thus dismissed. And honestly, I'm glad Fryer is up now instead. I believe it allows Herrman to play daily and not be yo-yo'ed like he has been the past two seasons, something I've mentioned before. I have advocated the Twins need for a veteran corner OF with some power and RBI potential to replace Willingham next season, as well as a solid, decent fill-in CF who might slide in to a 4th OF option if/when someone else emerges. Unless we trade a prospect or two, I'm not sure we have the ammunition to get anything in trade for that corner OF. But could we find that CF this year as a trade target? Someone stuck on a roster or at AAA just waiting for that next shot?
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Mid Season: Time to Examine 2015 Rotation
DocBauer replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I sure hope someone isn't eliminated due to TJ or other serious injury. I know it happens, and it sure has happened to a lot of other teams this year. I'd like to think the baseball gods owe us a few marks in the positive column. Im a huge Berrios believer and fan, and I do believe he'll see AA at some point this second half. But as Diehard points out, he doesn't have to be placed on the 40 man this next season. With the guys ahead of him at the moment, his young age, and no 40 man pressure at this point, it makes it that much easier to bring him along. But wouldn't it be fun if he forces the issue at some point. Id love to see both May and Meyer up and permanately in. Most of us were surprised, I think, when the Twins kept Gibson out of ST. I think a lot of us were simply resolved they'd stick with Diamond or someone else stubbornly until proven wrong and Gibson was recalled. Keeping Gibson has been one of the best moves of the season, and it's paying huge dividends. Would the Twins keep both May and Meyer at the same time? Would they feel comfortable keeping two rookies in the rotation from the get-go? Would it depend on one or both of them performing at the ML level this year? I think the Twins have shown a grudging willingness to cut bait on certain players and their contracts before, but I believe Pelfrey will definitely come to camp. If healthy finally and throwing well, is he a shoe-in to give another veteran influence? At least initially to see how things play out, or as a trade option? -
Hey Gang, I did one of these a week or so ago regarding the 2015 bullpen. It was a little early, granted, but with so much trade speculation and other commentary, it felt appropriate at the time. We we have now reached the half-way point of the ML season, just shy of the All-Star break, but beyond All-Star and half-way points of the minor league season. And not only has there been consistent trade speculation, but also mentions of the Future Games and the June minor league SP of the month and runners up. I think it's an appropriate time to look ahead to 2015 at this time. What we know: Despite a couple of rough outings recently, Hughes has proven to be a tremendous addition to the ball club. He has proven to be anywhere from solid to dominant. He's been mentioned as deserving All Star consideration, and deservedly so. While perhaps not ACE caliber, he has been a revelation for the Twins staff, especially considering the caliber of SP's the Twins have marched out to the mound the past few seasons. And the best part is, that despite the mentioned couple of rough starts recently, which virtually every pitcher encounters, he's not only still relatively young, but under Twins control for two seasons beyond this one. Gibson, as you might expect, has also had a few 50-50 stretches so far. But he's also flashed real ability, real dominance at times, and for the most part, seems to have recently conquered his road woes with a couple of excellent performances. There is a level of consistency he's still striving to reach, but in his first full season of SP at the ML level, the results have bordered on good to excellent. It remains to be seen how high Gibson May climb, and perhaps he arrived too late to achieve true elite status, but don't forget that 2013 was his "comeback" year from surgery where he tried to re-establish himself. And despite a split year overall, he made the club this year despite many believing he'd start the year initially in AAA. Nolasco was actually considered the Twins biggest FA prize, not Hughes. While never dominant, he is a solid, productive innings eating SP with periods of almost dominance and excellent perifferals who spent several seasons with losing ball clubs. He has lacked anything regarding consistency so far this season, but just recently has probably his best start of the season. And considering his career norms to this point, you'd expect real improvement. And with another 3 years locked up after this one, he's not going anywhere. Ultimately, that could be a good thing. This leaves 2 spots in the starting rotation for 2015 with Correia gone. Top prospects May and Meyer have show real flashes this season, both in their FIRST seasons of AAA. May, until his recent, reportedly mild, calf strain seemed to be on the fast track to promotion. Some speculated it would come to pass just after the Futures Game, of which his appearance is now in question. He has an ERA below 3 in his first shot at AAA, a Whip of only 1.13, more SO's than IP, fewer hits than IP, a 2.5-1 SO to BB ratio while averaging more than 6 IP per start. Meyer has had a little more up and down season thus far, though largely successful. He has been amongst the IL leaders in SO the entire season, has allowed 12 less hits than IP, and has an ERA of 3.46 and a Whip of 1.32. His BB are higher than preferred, but still maintains a 2-1 margin of 93-39. He had a rough stretch recently which brought about much speculation regarding injury and tired arm syndrome, only to see him put up two consecutive solid starts. His talent and potential are almost unquestionable. Logan Darnell, a 6th round pick in 2010, is a young 25 y.o. LHSP overlooked by some. He has had a solid but mostly non-descript minor league career until 2013 where he was excellent at AA New Britain before a solid second half season at Rochester. Thus far, ignoring a fairly impressive cup of coffee with the parent club that lasted all of 3 innings, he is having the best season of his young career. Thus far, he has a 3.12 ERA on the season with a .250 BA against, a 1.41 Whip, fewer hits than IP, and a solid 2-1 SO to BB ratio. Perhaps not as impressive overall as May and Meyer, but solid, and like them, his first full season in AAA and only 25 y.o. Kris Johnson is a 30 y.o. who should maybe be dismissed as a journeyman career milb player. Except, 2013, where he lead the IL in ERA, and 2014 might actually be the two best years of his career. For 2014, he's been a stalwart of the Rochester staff with a 2.86 ERA and 1.24 Whip. He also has a 2-1 SO to BB ratio and has allowed 76 hits in 91 IP producing a .223 BA against. I wouldn't pretend that Johnson is the same kind of prospect as May or Meyer, and in fact, the younger Darnell is also a better overall prospect with little doubt. But whether as a starter or role player, I'm not sure Johnson should be ignored. And what about Pelfrey? He rushed back from TJ surgery in 2013. He and the Twins both admit that. For a while last season, he pitched consistent and well before his arm tired. But it was that stretch, and belief in a stronger one year later post-surgery performance that lead to his new 2 year deal, ill advised or not. So two years removed from TJ and his latest, much more minor surgery, by the wayside, is he a potentially solid option for one of the five spots? How does all of this shake out? Do the Twins make an unexpected move? Is there another surprise you anticipate?
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I am old school and patient when it comes to prospects. With little exception, I disagree with promoting kids above their age/experience level to prevent sudden loss of confidence if they encounter sudden difficulties. There is a reason baseball has multiple levels for advancement. But there are talented prospects that come along that simply defy normal parameters. And despite his age and only 15 starts at high , Berrios is one of those rare prospects that are simply ready sooner than later. I dont get lost in potential and believe he'll be in the rotation 2015, or even AAA to begin the season. But at this point, I believe he's forced the Twins hand, and he's ready for New Britain.
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Wow! Not a convert on Berrios, just a believer who is eager and surprised leading to greater conviction. Oh my, forget the religious overtones there. LOL (Bull Durham church of baseball reference going through my head. Lol) Did you mean International League? Or did you mean Eastern League?
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No one wants to be next year's Kendrys Morales (or Drew)
DocBauer replied to PseudoSABR's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Oh Wise One, I do not disagree with a single point made here. But a few points: In regard to Hunter, while an option, and a favorite player of mine, I offer him as an example. Pride be damned, he's reaching the end of the line, and he knows it. And the last year of any contract is no indicator of true market value unless the player is in top form, and usually 30 or younger, or early 30's to be sure, as teams are paying for what's to come, and not what might be left in the tank. The Tigers didn't give Hunter the contract they gave him expecting a 14M all star player in 2014. It's the way contracts are simply positioned. You end up getting value, hopefully, the first couple seasons, and often overpay the last season or two. It's common practice and we all know this. No matter my love of Hunter, I'd rather have Cuddyer if available. But again, these are just examples. I also mentioned 2 year and 1 year with an option as other examples of potential signing contracts. The reality is, once you get past the big name FA's every year, there are always bargains to be had. Some are poor, some OK, and some steals. It's up to the FO of any team to try to make that determination. And also, every year, for various reasons, there are those veteran players who are available on 1 year make good contracts. The Twins have money to spend without blowing budget, and also shave nearly 12M just with Willingham and Correia alone being gone. I am certainly not opposed to the Twins spending big money on a big FA signing, but I doubt, for various reasons, that this will happen or prove prudent. And while I greatly value the depth of talent in our milb system, and feel we're a good year away from trading any top prospects for that final piece or two, I would not be opposed to a trade for a young or young-ish, productive corner OF. Logic and personal preference simply dictate to me to go the FA route on 1-2 year deals to supplement and bridge. And I believe and advocate we look at the best available FA options for a year or two to provide those options at CF, (where Rosario, and maybe even Santana and even Hicks might compete until Buxton is ready), and especially an OF corner where we need a productive and solid player until CF is settled, and another talented prospect, possibly even Plouffe, is ready to take over. -
Brock, agreeing with you for the most part. And I think I might be the loudest voice here at TD to preach and pronounce patience. And I realize how young Berrios is. People get so obsessed with those very, very few kids who leap to success at the ML level by other 20-21 year olds that they want the Twins to have a player do the same. Or multiple players! My goodness, before the season even started, there were those speculating that Sano, Buxton and Meyer would be fixtures! But I have to say, I think there's something special about this kid. Even at 20, with only 15 starts, I think talent and production set Berrios apart and demand a leap up to AA. I'm willing to cool my previous comments about his next start being at New Britain, but, there doesn't honestly doesn't seem to be anything holding back said promotion...soon. I am NOT saying majors in 2015, or even AAA. After all, forgetting his youth, there are other quality arms in the system ahead of him at the moment. I just feel this kid is really ready for that next step.
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Great post. Is your cheek OK from your tongue being so firmly implanted there? LOL We simply don't get to see kids like Berrios pitch. Maybe there is something we're missing. I truly get how young he is, and wanting to escalate him too quickly. And maybe his competition is being fooled, but his control is off enough they are worried what would happen at New Britain. Maybe his slide or holding runners on needs work, or whatever. Maybe the Twins are simply perplexed about who he replaces at New Britain, and who replaces him at Ft Meyers. Regardless, this should be his last start in A ball...period. Berrios was downgraded somewhat in the draft for 2 simple reasons; he wasn't playing for a quality HS program on the mainland, and he didn't have an over 6' 200lbs. stature. But I bet if you could redraft again, he'd be a consensus top 10 pick, if not top 5. From the day he pulled on a professional jersey there hasn't been a negative word spoken about the kid. You've heard and seen nothing but arm talent, athleticism, great work ethic and attitude. I'm not going to fall in to the easy trap that says he's one in a thousand who can and should jump straight to the majors at his age. Nor will I fall in to a similar trap that says he should be a strong contender for the 2015 rotation. That is too far away for fantastic speculation, there are a couple outstanding arms in front of him, and these things tend to work themselves out anyway. But his next start absolutely has to be at New Britain. Absolutely everything about this kid and what he's done screams promotion for the next couple of months.
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Even if the Twins fall off a cliff, and for the record, I maintain we are a possible .500 team with the potential for a few wins above, not a real playoff contender, I'm not sure we're a selling team per se'. I seriously doubt Suzuki goes anywhere, and it has little to do with his resurgent bat, that will almost assuredly regress next season. And it's not because of his arm or the still early and debatable stat of framing pitches, but rather his experience handling a staff, and the way he has gained the confidence of our staff and coaches. As he has done throughout his career, he has proven the most important quality of being a C, and this is simply the ability to handle a staff. Guys like throwing to him. Even when he hasn't hit well, he's a far better hitter than the likes of a Butera. And he's always made decent contact if nothing else. Despite speculation regarding Pintos future, other than stating he needs some work, nobody with the Twins has ever said anything negative about the kid. They gave him a long audition last season, and while it would have been nice to see him get more starts behind the plate when he was up earlier, the Twins though enough of him to take him north out of ST. I don't know who what the starting splits will be next season, but we need 2 catchers regardless. And I don't know that there's a better option than Suzuki available next off season. I think the Twins have some very good, and some solid/decent C prospects in the minors, but they are all AA and below. I'm one of those who is a Herrman supporter, as a solid and versatile backup, but don't think he's ready just yet. Suzuki will end up re-signing, and it won't cost much. Regardless of how he finishes, this will turn out to be a bit of a lost season for Morales. That in itself may bode well for a possible re-signing by the Twins, assuming he enjoys his time with our favorite team and Target field. He's had a few injuries here and there, but is also only 31, 32 June of next year, and has a career slash of: .277/.329/.473/.802. He switch hits, and can be a consistent 30 doubles and 20 HR guy with 500 AB's. There is no question that Vargas has the potential to be as good or better, but he's also young, still in AA as of now, and a veteran of Morales' ability hitting somewhere in the heart of our lineup would be a real asset until Vargas proves to be ready. Now, Vargas May have some trade value, especially if he heats up. And the Twins could still sign him in the off season if they wish following said trade. But if he enjoys it here, and both parties are interested in continuing the relationship, you have to look at 2 important factors: 1) what kind of return can the Twins really receive if traded? 2) and once you answer point #1, are they better served having his production the rest of this season, and would that also make re-signing him easier? Some of the points made in regard to Morales also applies to Willingham. I don't know that the Twins are interested in bringing him back for 2015. In fact, I believe there may be better options that would serve us better. A strong second half to the season for Hammer vs what might be available next off season has to be correlated, along with what, if anything more than a 6 pack and a bag of balls Hammer might bring in trade this year. To be clear, I do not advocate bringing Willingham back for 2015. But if offers for him are generally worthless, I'd be in favor of letting him play the year out, contribute, and then let him walk, knowing we got all out of him we can, OR, if we strike out on anyone and everyone else to play LF next season, I suppose he could be a fall back option on a 1 year deal. But again, I think it's time to replace him. The question is, is it worth replacing him in July or next off season? Unless Burton continues what he's done the last couple of weeks, and even better, he just isn't going to have any real trade value IMO, unless someone believes and is desperate. I know there are those who don't like Duensing, but by himself, as opposed to part of a package, he doesn't offer enough to trade straight up, unless like Burton, you have a team who believes and is desperate. Now, I like Duensing, and think he's proven to be a pretty solid LH in the pen that a lot of teams would love to enjoy in their pen. But by himself, he's just not dominate or special enough to bring much return solely. Which leaves Correia as the one trade option that might actually bring something in return. Personally, after his performance last season, (peripherals and not W-L), I thought his best value was during ST when it seemed SP's were dropping like flies. SP is always a premium need, and it is almost assured that someone in either league will be looking for one more starter to fill up their rotation for the last couple of months of the season. And truthfully, despite mediocre ability overall, Correia is pitching quite well after a slow start, and a team looking for needed depth, or injury replacement, might be enticed by a solid veteran. I doubt the return would be high, but if the Twins lower their expectations, and accept a talented player in A ball, they might actually gain a decent prospect in a deal. To me, that's it, that's the reality of us as traders at the deadline. One decent trade option, one potentially decent option in Morales that we might be better keeping, and one "meh" option in Willingham.
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Shortstop and Center Field going forward
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Great entry! And right on. Hoping everyone read the Rod Carew articles. I mean, hey, it's ROD CAREW for goodness sake. But his brief comments concerning Hicks are interesting as well as very direct. For anyone who hasn't read yet, please do so. But in short, he mentions his belief in Hicks's immense talent and potential, but also speaks about questionable work habits and lack of proper preparation to achieve the level of play he's capable of. I was initially opposed to Hicks going down for 2 reasons: 1) who else was going to help fill CF, 2) was thinking we had passed the point where a demotion was going to do much good, and work with the Twins coaches might be the best approach. I have now changed my mind. I don't know what's going to happen with Hicks ultimately, but at this point, a big step back may be what he needs. AA or not, he seems to be swinging the bat a little better as of late, and has his OB still very high, which is a positive. And as Stringer points out, there is still a half season remaining. Rosario has me as intrigued as ever. Not only for his overall potential, (a multi-faceted LF who can do everything well if not great, and even back up CF & 2B), but as a temporary solution at CF for the Twins as early as next season. Now, this no reflection on Buxton, just a realistic look at our current situation. I still maintain the Twins need to sign a decent CF/4th OF option for next season, but Rosario might be in the mix as well. There is absolutely no question the negative affects surrounding his suspension, but he's not playing poorly, he seemed to handle AA well last year, and would already be at Rochester, if not Minnesota, by now if not for the suspension. A strong second half, very possibly some time at AAA, and some AFL or winter league time, he might be ready to fill CF next season for us. And by no means does any of this diminish Buxton, his talent and future, and deserved #1 prospect ranking, but that darn wrist injury is washing out at least half of his entire season. Once again, as said, there is still a half season left, and a lot of things can happen. But if he's healthy in the next week or two, can 2 months of AA and some winter action really get him ready to play CF for the Twins any earlier than mid-season? Even Santana could be a back up or fill in option. And Buxton is the future, hopefully soon. But even with that half season of possibilities ahead, a bright light is still shining on the need for some decent veteran to compete and help shore up the position for 2015. -
No one wants to be next year's Kendrys Morales (or Drew)
DocBauer replied to PseudoSABR's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Respectfully, I'm going to disagree with you here. Now, you're right that there are some names on that list that don't thrill me either. But there are some names I like as say, 1 year stop gaps, in the right scenario, possibly for 2 or 1 with a workable option. For example; while his numbers are down this season, how about Hunter "coming home" for an encore and taking one of the corner spots to replace Willingham. He'd replace his RH bat, still has HR power and RBI potential. And I doubt salary demands would be large. Cuddyer could be a similar option, for the same reasons, though I'm not sure if Colorado will let him go, of if he'd want to leave at this point. And NOT picking up an option doesn't necessary mean a player is washed up or worthless, especially as the aforementioned stop-gap option. It might simply be the option year is too pricy to pick up, or the team in question may have budgetary concerns, or a top prospect ready to take over. It's certainly not about blocking young Twins prospects who may be part of a long and successful run with the rebuilt Twins. It's about fill-in options to keep the Twins viable, help the young kids up maintain a winning attitude and approach, and even supporting the pitching staff. We must be realistic, especially with some of the unfortunate events that have slowed some of the Twins young talent this season. Walker is at A ball, Vargas at AA for the moment, Sano rehabbing, Rosario getting back in to form, Buxton trying to get 100% and back on track. To pencil in any of these youngsters as key components for 2015, ready to go day 1, or May 1st, etc, is just not realistic. -
Official: Joe Mauer to DL, Colabello back to Twins
DocBauer replied to Twins Daily Admin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You know, when I speak of the Twins having bad luck this season, I'm not talking about cry in my beer, "oh my, we'd be a real contender if it weren't for bad luck, damn the baseball gods!", kind of bad luck. There is the luck of funny bounces and the such. You hope you get more good than bad. But the one "luck" factor every team in every sport hopes for is just general good fortune in regard to overall team health. And there is no doubt other teams have had bad to terrible "luck" this season. And yes, Texas comes first to mind. But my goodness, at one point a few weeks back, the entire Twins 4 man OF was injured at the same time. And if Mauer's injury happened just a few days ago, right when he's hitting the best he has all season, the entire infield sans Dozier would be injured simultaneously. That's just crazy. Lousy timing. And hard to build any sort of lineup consistency as a result. Add to the fact that the Twins have 2 of the top 3-5 prospects in all of baseball, depending on who's list you look at, out for all to most of the season, guys that had a real shot to play in the ML this year, and a small bit of "poor us" wouldn't be out of bounds. Silver lining wise, however, we have had some very pleasant surprises at the ML level. And some good stories. Hopefully Colabello will once again be part of a continuing good story. And despite the loss of our top two prospects thus far, and a few other injuries, there have been some great success stories in the minors this year. If you time Mauer's 14 day DL out, it could mean a healthy, "lucky" second half of the season where we might actually build some consistency finally. Coupled with some warranted milb promotions, and a return to action for Buxton, and hopefully some late season DH action for Sano, we could be for some really nice second half treats to the season. -
No one wants to be next year's Kendrys Morales (or Drew)
DocBauer replied to PseudoSABR's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yep. Personally, if he enjoys his time with the Twins this season, I'd make signing Morales a high priority. I know not everyone agrees with this approach, but not every top prospect in the Twins system is going to be ready for a full time gig at the start of 2015. And we already have to sort out CF, at least in the short term, and probably LF as well. Forget that Morales has struggled so far. Not only is the sample size small, but he virtually came off the street and was plugged in the lineup. His career track history is of a solid hitter with legit power and RBI production. And he's not some mid-30 year old trying to hang on either. Work with me here. Dozier hits in one of the top spots next year. The other spot could be Santana, or Escobar, or a decent, solid, fill-in ML CF option that they MUST sign for temp/and or 4th OF work, with Rosario being a possible option if he has a strong second half of the year this year. (That 50 game suspension continues to hurt and haunt) Mauer has finally been rescued from the body snatchers that held him the first months of this season to hit like he should be, before his recent injury. UGH! But the real Mauer hits 3rd in 2015. And let's say it begins to really click for Arcia, which it could just any day now, truth be told. Then what? Look, I want Vargas to be our full time DH and backup 1B yesterday, just like everyone else. And I don't care that he's struggled the last week or so. There are always ebbs and flows to a season. But he's young, in AA, and even if promoted to Rochester for most of the second half of the season, and even if he rakes, are we comfortable he's ready for 500 ML AB's just like that? And what about LF? Unless it's a cheap 1-year deal, Willingham is gone. So who plays LF and provides offense from that spot? Parmelee has been teasing us this year that the lightbulb might slowly coming on, a dimmer switch that someone keeps messing with. But at least we're seeing something. Rosario? Maybe. But he could also be in the running for a CF option. And for now, he's still in AA, behind due to his suspension, and even with a quick promotion to Rochester, and a couple really good months and outstanding ability, like Vargas, we're talking about a very young player with little AAA experience that we'd be counting on. The Twins have the finances to sign that decent CF option to help out. And with guys like Willingham and Correia gone, they also have the finances to sign a quality corner OF to fill a spot in the middle of the lineup. With financial flexibility, and future trade possibilities, the Twins can afford to bring back Morales, sign that decent CF option, AND a vet corner OF without blocking the future for Buxton, Rosario, Vargas and Walker a bit further down the line. This would give them a mix of veterans and youngsters to build a solid lineup to go along with a solid pitching staff, further fortified with a large group of young pitchers nearly ready to supplement and contribute, and still allow the young kids mentioned, and Sano, to work themselves one by one in to the lineup in 2015, and early 2016 at worse. -
Shortstop and Center Field going forward
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
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Article: Twins sign Ynoa for $800k
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Prefacing my comments with a simple confession than I know absolutely nothing about the pool of international prospects available except for comments here and shared links and information. From what I have read, it sure sounds like a good signing, and a very good young prospect with a world of potential, key words being young and potential. I would have some doubt that the reports of 94 are accurate. Hope they are, but even a consistent 91-92 at 16 is pretty awesome. Forget coaching and consistent mechanics, just physical growth alone should add a few ticks over the next couple of years. I have to chuckle at debate and angst over top 30 rankings and where each player may sit. Unless you have a Sano-type talent, not sure how you rank 16 year old Latin country kids with any degree of accuracy. Every year right here in the good old USA you have professional scouts who hit and miss on college kids, much less 18 year olds armed with college scholarships. And the college coaches offering those scholarships miss at times as well. And some of the ones they get to come to school weren't even drafted, or were drafted in the 20's or later, and end up being top 10 round kids three years down the road. So I have to take these rankings with a full salt block, not a few grains of the stuff. And even if you could get all 30 teams to actually have a consensus of a top 30 list, you'd still have 30 teams, all with at least some available money, competing for at least one of these 16 y.o. kids, and trying to project him at least a season, if not two, from even reaching short season rookie leagues here. So I guess I agree with trying to put out the cash for a couple of the top projectables, quality wise, but then spreading the rest of your allotment out and around for quantity to see what might develop. -
I believe Polanco was sent back to Ft Meyers for one simple reason. It was easy. He jet-sets for a week, gets his cup of coffee, and then gets sent down to the most comfortable and familiar place he knows, temporarily I'd guess. Straight to AA sounds good, and might seem warranted and the surface, but back to FTM makes sense for a week or two. As was pointed out previously, Polanco was signed for his glove with some hitting potential. The hitting potential is showing signs of being a great reality. Defensively, he's been moved around, probably more than he should have been. Part of that has been due to the presence of the equally young and talented Goodrum, who some forget about. This season, the Twins have made a concerted effort to allow Polanco to be a fixture at SS. Personally, I don't worry much about his errors for a few reasons: one is his youth, he has routines to learn, two has been the position shuffling, three is that the majority of his errors came early in the season, four is that milb errors can be deceptive based not only on youth and learning, but also lesser quality infields, and even quality everyday 1B who might save an error or two. I do think its a bit amusing how we get wrapped up in promotions of young talent, both at the ML level and the milb level. The Twins get blasted for promoting the likes of Hicks too soon, when it doesn't work out, and then there is clamoring to quickly promote others. I don't know that there is an easy equation to follow, but there are not that many Trouts and Harpers of the world who are ready to explode so early. It doesn't mean a kid can't become an absolute stud, it just means they are all on their own time table. The Twins are very traditional and predictable with their promotions. They look for dominance at a level, as everyone does, but they also look for improvement. After all, would you really expect a young player to be promoted while raw and struggling just based on talent alone? The Twins have traditionally made a series of moves in their milb system about mid-season. And the milb seasons have just barely past their mid-season. There have already been a few promotions at the AA level, and the rookie levels just began to play. Give it another week, or two, and I beg you see a few more big promotions, stRting with Polanco and Berrios. Here is something to consider: the youth of the Twins top 10 prospects. Heck, even the top 20 prospects. Before the season even began, and unfortunate injuries hit, people were talking about 20 y.o.'s Sano and Buxton being in our everyday lineup. Everybody loved Polanco and doubted Santana, for example. But who has been one of the biggest surprises and catalysts for the Twins this season? I hate to say it again folks, but it's about enjoying improvement and being patient. I would love to see a comparison league-wide of top 10-20 prospects by age and experience. Meyer and May, 1st seasons in AAA, Rosario-suspended 50 games and never played above AA, Buxton and Burton- injured, never played above AA or high A, Santana- a few games at AAA before promotion and excelling, Polanco-high A before temp promotion, and only 20 y.o., Barrios-also only 20 and dominating high A. I could go on but won't and don't need to. There are big promotions of big talents coming soon. Wishful thinking doesn't give us a championship team of 25 and younger players. Now, if it's August and expected promotions aren't taking place, make the signs, light the torches, grab the pitchforks, damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead on the Twins front office.
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Good thread! And once again, just too many good and interesting comments and opinions to copy and paste them all. So going to just try to hit on some of them randomly. I love this version of the Twins. There is a completely different level of play and contention, a different vibe from the team if you will, from the past three year's teams. I think a lot of it is Hughes and Gibson. But it's also Plouffe and Escobar and Dozier and Santana and Suzuki as well. Even glimpses here and there from others. But I don't feel this team is a real playoff contending team this year. And I'm the eternal optimist! Lol. Now, with nobody running away with the Central, and a second wild card, could we be? Yes. Personally, before the season began, and even now, when I talk about the Twins winning, it's about being competitive daily, which we have been. Even on our recent road losing streak, disappointing as it was, we held our own most games, were in all games, and had a shot to win because we didn't give up, and were competitive. That's important! How many blowouts and games over after 3-4 innings have we endured the past three years? So to me, personally, winning is about competitiveness, building, re-tooling, and aiming for that .500 mark this year. Maybe even a couple games over .500 which would be huge. And if that puts in contention, so much the better. There are holes with this team, absolutely. Some are part of a natural progress of a rebuild. Some are poor decisions made by the FO, miscalculations or other. Overall, the biggest problem this team has faced in inconsistencies from series to series, week to week. Now, some of that can be traced to those holes. Some of it can be traced to young players, or players new to the team or league. But I think one of the biggest problems this season, in regard to said inconsistency, has been the injury bugaboo. Look, I'm not going to excuse the FO for a lack of planning for at least ONE viable, so-so ML caliber OF'er being available, but who could have anticipated Willingham, Arcia, Hicks and Fuld all being injured at the same time? Likewise, I still think the Twins made a major mistake in not promoting Romero when Plouffe went down, and messing with Escobar for the past two weeks. But again, who could see Plouffe, Nunez and Santana all being injured simultaneously? You CAN'T depend on luck in sports, and yet, every single team everywhere does. You can build depth in your team, regardless of the sport, and injuries happen everywhere, but starters are starters for a reason. And every single successful team generally has one thing in common, that is, the majority of their starters do just that...start. I am NOT saying the Twins would lead the division today, or be 2-3 games above the .500 mark...BUT...how many games better might they be with Willingham healthy most of the first half? Or Arcia, even with his streaky-ness? Or with Plouffe and Escobar and Santana not being injured recently? 2 games better? 3-4-5? Not sure it can be quantified properly, but don't tell me they wouldn't be better by at least a few games with better health and stability in the daily lineup. (Not to mention some imposter/body-snatcher pretending to be Joe Mauer who has recently been replaced by the real Joe Mauer. Along with health and a resurgence of Mr. Joe Mauer, I think Dave really hit some key points very well. Hughes, Gibson and yes, Correia, need to continue what they've done so far. And there is no good reason to believe they won't at this point. But Nolasco, a talented, solid and proven veteran needs to figure something out and step forward. Pino and Deduno, it appears, may both be nothing more than replacement level. And in that case, May could go a long way to determining the depth of our rotation. (This not to discount Meyer, Darnell or even Johnson) I hate to put too much pressure on, or too much faith in, a youngster like Santana, but in reality, the kid has been a catalyst and maybe the biggest surprise so far this season. He brings a real spark and some real offensive talent. I pray his injury heals quickly, and he doesn't get Rusty or lose the magic. As far as being buyers and making a trade to bring someone in, I have mixed feelings. Despite the overall short-comings in CF, I'd be very cautious. I simply wouldn't trade any important prospects at this juncture. However...it's an area that must be addressed next offseason, probably in FA. The reality is that Buxton will probably not be ready day 1, even if gets a strong second half in, and some quality AFL or winter ball. You simply can't go in to next season banking on him being immediately ready. Been there, done that, got burned. Even if Soriano continues to play well, gets a AAA call up, plays well, maybe even in a September call up and a good AFL or winter himself, and even if you re-sign Fuld, the Twins simply HAVE to come up with another solid CF/4th OF option to compete and provide depth/options. (Even with Santana as an option of sorts). So if there is someone out there than can be acquired now without a big payout, well, then you have addressed that need early and more power to us. As far as the next 2 weeks before the All Star break, I just don't know. But this streaky team is due. 10-4 is possible but doubtful. But I do think 8-6 is very reasonable. Again, we're due, Plouffe is back, Mauer is hitting better, the pen has been on a recent roll, and Escobar is back where he belongs.
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Article: Halfway Home and Hanging Onto Hope
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm having fun watching this version of the Twins. There have actually been some very pleasant surprises this season. In fact, I think overall, there's been much more positive, in the way of said surprises, than bad surprises. There have certainly been inconsistencies which have hurt. Way too much streaky play. To me, this season, a "hope" factor might be more about just hoping to get healthy and stay healthy. Not saying our team is a true playoff challenger this season. But there is no question to Willingham, Arcia, Plouffe, Santana, and to a lesser degree Nunez, Hicks and Fuld have had an impact on the overall day to day play of the team. So I am definitely clinging to hope of health. -
You wanted Trevor May? You can't have Trevor May...(yet)!
DocBauer replied to jokin's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
<picking up bucket of KFC AND Popeyes tomorrow just in case> and if you don't get that.......shame on you! Lol -
I am very pro Gardenhire, overall. Though he and I do butt heads on occasion. Though I suppose he doesn't realize this on a daily basis or concern himself much with it. At 56, Gardy is still a relatively young man. I see no relative signs of slowing down. But he has made comment in the recent past about wanting to manage the Twins, at least, until the signs of rebuilding and turnaround are apparent. In theory, the talent on the roster now, the deep talent in the minors that will hopefully explode on the scene soon, along with a little bit better luck in the health category, and the overall better competitive nature of this years team, has had some conjecturing when that step-down date for Gardy might be. Now, he might pull a TK this season, or next, and say its time; the team and it's future is solid and it's time to move on. Or, the team might be playing well, the top prospects are healthy and playing well, and he might stick around a little longer. Who could blame him? But since the subject has been broached, whether it be at the end of this season...next..or another season or two, who is the next Twins manager? I think Molitor would be an excellent choice, but didn't realize until recently that he's actually a year older than Gardenhire. And while I wouldn't say he couldn't or wouldn't do/take the job, I wonder at his past few years and wonder if he wouldn't just be happier as a coach or instructor now vs being the guy. Brunansky is 53 and a well respected hitting coach with a seeming ability to connect to his players. Doug Mientkiewicz, 39, and Jake Mauer, 35, are a pair of young former Twins, managing in A ball, who have shown success, moxy, and baseball management/coaching skills that could have them both fast tracking. The Twins may have missed the boat on Mike Redmond, who is already a big league manager with the Marlins at 41. Still, if things sour in Miami, as they have been known to do in the past, he may be an option. Matthew LeCroy is another former Twin who slipped through our fingers. The former C/DH is currently the Nationals bullpen coach. I believe he could be someone to watch. You can scoff all you want at the Twins general philosophy of staying and promoting from within, but most of the track history the past 25 years indicates that they generally surround themselves with pretty smart talent.
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Article: Kernels Nuggets: Thorpe Notches First MWL Win
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Man SD, you wet my appetite for Kernels baseball as well as ballpark food! How far away is Omaha anyway? I should have made it last season, but even with this being a bit of a down season, there is still good baseball, good prospects to watch, and good experiences to be had. I should try to plan a trip this summer with my father for some Kernels baseball. -
Did the headline get your attention? LOL This post is actually a little early as it should probably be closer to the actual All Star break in order to speculate on where we are in 2014 and where we might be in 2015. But I read an interesting stat today on the Twins website that caught my attention, in conjunction with several articles recently posted and discussed here on TD. And thus, I am jumping the gun a couple weeks early. The stat in question was this: going in to today's game, (Saturday), the Twins bullpen had an ERA of 2.04 the past 11 games. A small sample to be sure, but interesting. More so perhaps due to the recent road losing streak. I think all the more showing the frustration of the lineup to provide consistent run production. The title of this thread is not a misnomer. Over the past 25+ years! dating back to TK and Such in charge, through the current coaching and management of Gardenhire and Anderson, the Twins have enjoyed and employed bullpens that were consistently amongst the best in the league and all of baseball at times. A couple of times they lead us to a World Series title, several times they've helped us to division titles and the playoffs. And a few times, they might have been the only thing that kept us from losing a 100 games. We've enjoyed outstanding closers in that time running from Reardon to Aguillera, to Guardado, and Hawkins, a Trombley tossed in there, and Nathan, and now Perkins. Some of those names were outstanding setup men first, along with names like Berenguer, Atherton, Willis, Reyes, Romero, Swindell, and many others, including Burton up until this year. We've also found LOOGY's, and long relievers, some of which came from our system, and some of which seemed to come from nowhere. The way baseball has been played the last 25-30 years or so, a strong closer and bullpen has gained great significance for a team to win, make the playoffs, and reach the pinnacles of success. Back to this season, while the Twins bullpen is sadly amongst the bottom in team bullpen SO's, they rank an impressive and expected 3rd in BB. 7 teams have a better BA against, putting our .241 just about smack dab in the middle. But with a WHIP of 1.24 we are tied with the Red Sox at 4 just behind Tampa at 1.23, Seattle at 1.19, and the A's at 1.11. Despite some complaints, that's not bad folks. Even impressive I'd say. So with those numbers, and the impressive 11 game stretch, where are we really near the All Star break as we prepare for the second half of the season, and preparation for 2015, where in theory we're closer to contention? Despite having a slightly down season thus far, Perkins has established himself as an elite closer in a long and distinguished line. Burton has given us 2 excellent seasons overall. But while he has pitched better as of late, I think we all agree it would take an outstanding second half for him to come back. Matt Guerrier was a great Twin, has gotten his shot this year, and has probably had a better and longer career than anyone expected. But while his numbers don't seem bad when first looked at, he seems to be pitching on little more than guile and luck, and also would seem to be short lived. Fien has been a huge find, very reliable, and has almost gotten better and better. He might be better as a 7th inning guy, but he's also provided some very good setup work for us. I don't understand the hate for Duensing as he's largely been very dependable as a 7th and occasionally 8th inning LHer. Since his promotion last year, Thielbar has been anywhere from good to outstanding with a couple of "just can't get the third out/strike to finish things off" moments to gain full elite reliever status. I think it's very safe to say the Twins will spend FA money this offseason on a late 20's-early 30's proven reliever to replace Burton. Think a Crain-Hawkins type. And if this logical transaction takes place, then we enter 2015 with 5 of 7 bullpen slots essentially spoken for and filled. And while I would LOVE for the 2015 rotation to be strong enough for a 6-man bullpen, we will assume a 7 man pen for now. With 5 spots filled, theoretically, there are two spots available. Who fills them? There is nothing that states these final two spots must be RH. In the past the Twins have carried 3 LH's on occasion. (Perk is a closer, not an extra LH'er) And Gardenhire has often stated he wants the best pitchers he can get, regardless of handed-ness. From the starboard side the Twins would have Swarzak, almost a seeming lock based on past contributions, especially with a stronger second half this year, followed by a good ST next. But Tonkin and Achter are young relievers who can't be ignored. And Oliveras seems to have rebounded well from his surgery. He can't be ignored now that he's at AAA. Pressly has been very solid for Rochester this year, and actually has a year's worth of ML experience. And could Deduno or Pino prove capable of a bullpen spot? Possibly. From the port side, Darnell, Johnson, Ibarra, and even Thompson have to be considered. Thompson might be a bit of a long shot. And Darnell might have a real shot at a rotation slot if his second half of 2014 can match his first. I'm thinking Johnson is a typical late blooming LH, but limited to a a mid-long-LOOGY role. So with a single, quality FA signing, the Twins could enter 2015 with the bulk of their bullpen in place, with two strongly contested spots open. What say you?
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Understandable. But I'm not the least bit worried. I know it's low A, but still, the kid is only 18 and won't be 19 until near the end of November. Most kids his age would be in Elizabethton if not the GCL. Even forgetting the OK but probably slightly lower level of quality of baseball in his native Australia, plus making all the transitions he's had to make, it makes what he did last season all the more impressive. So now, despite his age and experience, he's at CR, where I think he should be, making the adjustments, and building on each start until his latest and best and first win. And I think Mauer and Arteaga are a great support system. Crazy young, as Brock pointed out, and should be a HS senior now getting ready for the draft, or just drafted, and already in the MWL. Hugely talented, patience required. What a steal! And kind of crazy he and Stewart are the two youngest players in the league. Just think about his new teammate in Burdi, a 20 something Junior out of college. He might end up being a fast tracker, but just that Thorpe is playing with and against kids 3-4 years older already. Wow!
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Was going to point out Eisenreich, which I had forgotten about. Was also thinking Puckett was straight from Visalia, forgot he had a little time at AAA first. I hate to repeat myself from another thread, but I guess I have to in an abridged version. Despite being a (former?) fan of Floriman with hopes, he is having perhaps the worst season I have ever seen. I doubt another team in baseball wouldn't have already DFA'ed him at this point, especially with injuries and the roster crunch. Escobar should have been left alone at SS and Romero should have received his first shot. Instead of messing with the entire left half of the infield, could have put a 3B at 3B, and hopefully gotten a little offense. And if you're going to bring up Polanco for a taste, even a brief one, can't he at least play a little bit? I mean, what's he going to do, play defense so much worse than Florimon that a hit, a walk, a productive out at least wouldn't compensate? And just a point, I don't put a lot of fearful value in regard to errors for a young SS simply because he's learning, working, playing on poorer quality fields, and might not always have the best fielding 1B receiving throws.

