DocBauer

I know he's young, at least experience wise, but damn he looks like a natural hitter! I could see Ft Myers to begin the season, (get in a groove, etc), but the Twins are heavier in pitching talent in AA and AAA than positional talent. There is real opportunity for him to begin at AA, or get there soon. I know we have a new FO, but the Twins have NEVER been shy about promoting from AA if they thought someone had the "it" factor.

Late to the party on this one, for various reasons, so probably won't get read anyway, lol. Nick...appreciate what you are trying to do here, but really, it should have been a slightly altered/different article that simply said: "Don't give up on 2018 before it begins". But I really do understand and "get" your points. However: 1] Losing Santana sucks, no matter how you spin it. We can't change his injury, but, I'd rather have 2-4 weeks during the season when May might be back, and guys like Gonsalves, Slegers, Romero and Jorge could have a couple AAA months under their belt. Not sure I buy in to the idea of no auto extension for Santana in 2019. We LOVE numbers in baseball...except for age. The truth is Santana has pitched as well, or better, overall, in his Twins career as he has ever pitched. Unless this injury truly affects his ability/performance, he could be brought back in 2019. That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, however. 2] I like additional IP and opportunity for the kids in spring. But will they face ML hitters or AAA/AAAA hitters? Experience is good for the kids, but they just aren't ready yet. 3] Who knows, maybe we dodged a bullet on Darvish. The Cubs were the one team that scared me, and damned if they didn't make the move I feared. We also may never truly know the Twins offer, but it sure sounds like the numbers per year were very close. The 6th year and opt out seemed to seal the deal. And I get we can't just get stupid in terms of numbers and details...but...to seem that close and not willing to bump up, or front load seems irresponsible to me. IMHO, this is the first time I've questioned the new FO. We will also never know, probably, how seriously Darvish really considered the Twins. That shouldn't just be swept under the rug either. As to my proposed alternate title to the article, I have NOT given up on 2018. Barring injury or sudden, unexpected regression, this lineup should be better in 2018. Sorry for those who wanted to lay out a pair of $10M per contracts, but the pen looms much better to me...with more help on the way. Plus, if Rogers, Pressly and Duffey can mature even a bit more, oh my! The rotation is still the issue. We ALL KNOW THIS. No secret. But how well did this team do last season with the rotation and pen they had and the numbers that marched through? Get Santana healthy. Watch Berrios...and Mejia...get better. See May come back. Gibson? SSS maybe, but something seemed to click the second half we hadn't seen before. And a couple of the kids could be ready later in the year. Silver lining? Not so much right now. Giving up on 2018? No way! The best news is the market is depressed for FA, and there are still some intriguing options out there to help. There is still the possibility of a trade, though I prefer to keep everything intact and spend the money. I'd sign Lynn or Cobb, whoever my scouts/advisors and myself seeing as the best fit for a fair contract and take a 1 year flier on someone else. After all, you can never have too much pitching.

Count me as a fan and believer in Kepler and his potential. And other than a FA filler, nobody is ready for a couple years from the system to replace him. POTENTIALLY,I could see Granite as a leadoff candidate and Dozier slides down. But Granite is still unproven at this point. While I'm not 100% sold on Archer, (I get IP and SO numbers), the overall ability and potential are there. He could be ready for that next step. But he's the only guy I'd even consider trading Kepler for at this point. Still rather offer up 4-5 quality prospects, maybe even Lewis. Not sure it would be enough, but I'd prefer to keep Kepler and the ML roster intact.

Didn't KC make 2 WS recently with a strong pen, good defense and solid offense? The Twins probably can't match their pen, but its better with more help on the way. They probably have a better offense. Need to deepen the rotation, even without a clear #1, IMO. McHugh is OK, but I think I'd rather sign a still solid, quality FA, lose the 3rd rounder, and keep the roster and system intact. For now anyway, and look at a future trade. The idea of Archer is a completely different animal. But what I will say is I'd rather keep Kepler and trade 4-5 prospects of quality...yes, maybe even Lewis...and not touch the ML roster. Much as I like Lewis, SS is pretty deep, as is the system as a whole, and if prefer that route if possible.

Disappointed and upset. As I stated in the other post, we'll never know the final offer or if Darvish really wanted to come here at all. (Honestly, I never thought he wanted to). Shame on the Twins if they close and didn't blink. That being said, I'm OK with a trade. I actually think I like Odorizzi more than Archer. Either way, I'm really not in on trading Kepler, and not just because I really believe in his game and potential. I'm also not sure there is anyone close to replacing him, which opens up another can of worms. To me, a trade is 4 or maybe even 5 quality prospects and keep the ML team intact. I much prefer money be spent at this point on either Lynn or Cobb. Honestly, I'm torn between both of them. They are not Darvish, but as I've stated before, they move the needle. 3 or 4 year deal or a 1 year to enter the market again? That's a different question. But I make the move for one of them. I then try for a 1 year deal on Garcia. Not interested? Then go to the next 1 year option. At this point, you lose a draft pick in the upper 20's. The system can afford that. You keep the roster and milb system intact for depth, competition, promotion and trade depth this year, next offseason, and you STILL deepen your rotation. You steel yourself for the temporary loss of Santana and any lingering issues, if they surface, and await a return of May. If nothing else, you help build a bridge to gain more time for Gonsalves and others to get ready. Can you imagine a couple positive signings and come mid season the Twins actually have enough depth to trade a pitcher, (Gibson or Mejia as possibilities), or milb players, relievers, or a combination thereof to add an important piece or two? Make a couple signings. Keep the system and ML roster intact. You help move the needle and build more depth. THEN you make additional moves as you can.

In principal, i agree completely. Payroll is low, overall, manageable even with the Darvish signing, and there is more payroll comjng off the books in tbe next couple of years. Do you realize the Twins could extend Dozier for 4 years, Mauer for 2, and STILL end up cutting their combined pay scheduled for 2018? The Twins are in a perfect (good) storm of opportunity right NOW. I'm OK with 5 years. I just don't think you really end up hurting yourself with regression vs expense that 5th season to shy away with what you probably get season's 1-4. I remain very Leary of a 6th season though, especially allowing maximum flexibility for other extensions that will need to take place in the near future. I think a 6th year option could make sense. If he pitches well enough to earn it, even with some regression, you have a viable SP to fill a spot that last season. I'd feel better in a contract that was maybe front-loaded though. Possibly front-loaded AND an optional 6th year that isn't outlandish to reach?

Despite being a pretty ardent follower of the Twins milb system, and intrigued by a ton of prospects from AAA down to last year's draft selections, 3 of the top 5 or so I have my eye on are Graterol, Thorpe and Romero. I see them being the same in many ways. Not the exact same pitcher. I mean, 2 are RH, Thorpe is LH, and both Graterol and Romero almost certainly have the highest ceiling. But Thorpe has some real talent, put up some really nice numbers early on and drew the watchful eye and commentary of several baseball people. All 3 have some real potential and all 3 had major injuries that cost them a load of time; Romero and Thorpe each lost 2 seasons and Graterol a full season plus. Imagine how close/closer they might be if healthy. Can't wait to see what they do this season!

Agree Nunez would be very smart. My only concern is, will a full and healthy roster, who plays 1B? Vargas would probably be gone in this scenario and that leaves Sano, which might be fine. Nunez is the better overall fielder, maybe/probably, with more overall versatility and the better overall hitter, but Reynolds really intrigues me. He might be the better roster "fit".

LOVE this post. Very smart. But we will continue to disagree on 2 pitchers better than Berrios. But that comes down to belief as well as cost and affect. Despite this unfortunate injury, I'm a believer in Santana, and never bought in to the theory his arm would fall off in 2018. He has pretty much performed as well as or better with the Twins than he ever has. (Obviously this minor injury clouds things a bit). Even with some regression, Santana is a very nice pitcher. And I believe Berrios will only continue to get better. Darvish is obviously a HUGE need and potential get. (Honestly, I'm not sure why he hasn't taken the best opportunity and contract and signed already), but some of the other options still move the needle for me, if the numbers make sense. But Darvish, (I hope), Santana and an improving Berrios does a lot for me. After that is Gibson, Mejia, and a few really nice prospects, (maybe not quite ready) plus the rehabbing May. Just not sure I buy in to another SP better than Berrios. But I could absolutely buy in to a flier/1 year deal at this point to offset any Santana issues. It would deepen the initial rotation and buy time for May and the kids. Who knows, might get lucky and have a flip asset.

I am not a modern day stat guy, though I DO somewhat understand them and their value. But WAR to me is always quite debatable. I am looking for my best chance to win on a daily basis. There is no way I can see any of the top FA pitchers providing only 2 more wins for someone like Hughes struggling in the rotation. Obviously, a very poor season or sudden resurgence from Hughes can change this. But said scenario would be almost impossible to predict. Still comes down to Darvish making a difference. And if not him, do any of the others stand out enough for a 3-4year deal vs a fuller and wait for May and the kids.

Initially, I was excited about Darvish but seriously doubted he'd actually end up in Minnesota, the closer we get to ST, the more I'm thinking the possibility is real. (And that possibility really should put a lot of the "Pohlad's are so cheap" stuff to bed-IMO) If you read between the lines and various opinions, as there is no definitive proof, it sure seems the Twins have the best offer on the table. Somewhere in the 5 years and $25-28M per area. Sure seems the Yankees and Dodgers are out for financial reasons now, and going forward. Darvish and his agent may not like their situation, but we are still talking 5 guaranteed years and a ton of money and security. I almost wonder if he and his team are thinking about a 1 year deal? Personally, as good as he is, I think that's a big risk. Read about an agent, I forget who, that is being outspoken for this market and is alluding to collusion. I'm sorry, but I find that laughable. With mid range payrolls being in the $150M range, and "power clubs" climbing in to the $190+ range, I just don't buy it. I think teams are just becoming a little smarter about some of these huge and long term deals we've seen the past few season's. I believe in Santana, even if he regressed a bit. There is a great article over at Puckettspond by Benjamin Chase that examines numbers while with the Twins, and where he has ranked in MLB during that time. It's interesting and impressive. I strongly believe Berrios is only going to get better. Mejia is young and talented. Gibson may or may not have turned a corner, but, he worked hard to change a lot of things. It seemed his approach/attitude on the mound was very different the second half of 2017. He's a bit of a wildcard, but I wouldn't get against him just yet. May IS a bit of a wildcard due to his injury, but the stuff and potential are there, he was looking really good before his injury. How quickly can he come back? And, of course there is a very reasonable chance that by the second half of 2018 we are seeing the early performances of Gonsalves, Romero, Littrell and maybe one or two more. This team really, really needs Darvish. A lesser, but still good arm, STILL moves the needle. But the way the market is shifting, it seems no-one is going to get the contract they want. It could indeed be a year for a 1 year deal opportunity. (Nothing says the Twins couldn't re-sign said pitcher). Arrieta may be risky, but the best choice, and possibly the most likely of the top arms to do so. After him, it's kind of a crap shoot. Cahill is only 29, but his first half of 2017 was the best he's looked in some time. Vargas had good years, and a great first half, but is 35. Did he tire the second half or pitch through injury? Or is just toast? I like the idea, I get the idea, and it could be smart and pay off. At least for the 1 year. I'm just not sure I like most of the options unless one of the "second tier" of Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb is willing to go this route.

I like Grossman overall, as a solid role player. If he could take his weird reverse splits the past 2 seasons and even them out, is like him a lot better. But I just don't see an improvement over him here. Then there is still the possibility of Vargas. Sano may have to DH some, allowing Escobar to play 3B. I just don't see a guy or need unless someone is available inexpensively to replace Grossman.

Sorry, maybe its a misprint, but how could Dozier, who i love, believe in, and would like to be re-signed, be worth $100M? $20-$25M per depending on years. What? Typo, right? Dozier is an iron man. All iron man are until they aren't. In any sport. But you can't predict those things. The Twins have a wonderful wealth of talented infielders coming up. But most, except for Gordon, are 2-3 years away. Dozier shows no signs of slowing down, and is an important part of this team both offensively, leadership wise, and is quality defensively. There is also a bit of a glut in MLB in regard to 2B available in FA and trade the next few years. This brings his cost down, I believe. With the continued development of Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc, trade and FA opportunities and eventual promotion, I still feel Dozier is a viable and important presence. What if he's signed for 4-5 years and plays the last 1-2 as a DH and super utility player? His value is about $14M per IMO. Even if you re-sign him for that, even if Mauernis also re-signed for 2 more years, which has been discussed, you still save money overall for payroll. Production, experience, leadership, potential flexibility, I'd love to sign him for about 4 years and $14M. Anything more, I trust in moving forward.

Darvish, no question, if the cost isn't just crazy. He's better than either, and there is depth here and more coming to a ballpark near you soon! Second: ONE of Lynn or Cobb. You still deepen your rotation and your chances. And did I mention the depth and the depth coming soon? No need for 2 contracts, loss of 2 draft choices, and block what you have.

Thank you Tom! Post of the year....thus far. Lol But seriously, this is awesome! There is just so much interesting and telling stuff here to sort through. A few hilights for me: 1] Pressly in routines. We comment positively, and some to es negatively, on veteran signings and a veteran presence here and there. But hearing him talk about being a young veteran, and still learning about routine from Belisle is telling. You can find fault with Pressly, or the staff, but what I read is a guy "getting it" because he heard a voice from a veteran who he connected with. 2] Gibson, we saw a different version the second half. He changed his delivery and his workout routine. He got sent to the minors twice. He was quietly, but also publicly, chastised on the mound by Molitor. He always had good stuff and was reported to be a really good guy. But it seemed like his whole approach and demeanor changed the second half. And he speaks about his mental change here. 3] Rowson on working with Buxton just speaks so much to something a lot of have commented on previously; he just seems to have been a great hire and a guy who really understands the basics and kniws how to communicate them, and work with each player individually. A lot of really good comments shared. Again, thank you!

100%. Slegers comes to mind as a possibility as well, just to name someone. But with his MLB experience, I'd feel more comfortable with Duffey in that role, if you're going to have someone for that spot, wouldn't you? At least, initially. I think Duffey is more than capable of being a 7th inning guy, for example. But as the bullpen seems to be shaping up now, there isn't room for the 9th or 8th innings for him. So if you're going to have that long/mid man, Duffey would seem the best choice. Part of me does wonder, I'll admit, about Duffey staying a SP and work that way in Rochester as insurance and depth. Maybe I just can't get over how good he looked the last half of 2015. Regardless, if the Twins want that long/mid man, Duffey would be my choice for now.

Personally, I'm not that big on a long man being a necessity. Now, there are times when you have a blow out, or your SP gets hurt, etc. But my feeling is Duffey is better suited to that role than Pressly or Busentiz or Hildenberger, etc.

I believe stretching Duffey let's him work on all his pitches, and allows hum to work as the middle and long man, something I've been thinking and saying for a while.

I am not saying I'm a big Rodney fan, but you would think he was some guy off the street when you read a few comments. Yes, there are bouts of wildness that stink. But he brings velocity, high SO numbers and huge production in his career, overall. I like Duke quite a bit and think he will resemble his previous self in 2018. Bullpen construction and usage has changed. I still believe in a quality closer to ice and shorten the game. But Reed has the potential to be that high leverage guy and I like that.

Tremendous pitcher and great Twin! Just too bad his arm fell off early. Really thought he might be on his way to a possible HOF career. One of the great losses/mismanagement situations by the Twins; losing Hunter hurt a lot, and IMHO helped lead to the trade of Santana to upgrade over all talent and find a replacement CF. I still wonder what could have been had the Twins been more pro-active and found a way to keep both what might have been,

A great list, but really, I'm not so sure Hildenberger didn't "break out" second half of last season. A full season from Buxton and Polanco would be HUGE. As well as the next step for Berrios and Kepler. I know that's cheating...but I'm sticking with 4 instead of 3. Honestly, I'm expecting bigger and better seasons from all 4 of these guys.

While I'm pretty sure he has an option remaining, Duffey seems to be the perfect choice for the long man in the pen. He has been a starter at both levels so his arm is used to the longer workload. Mays needs to keep starting, but will need a little time for control and feel, if not endurance. Pretty much the same for Hughes, if there is anything left at all. Duffey is certainly capable of being more than a long man, but he's the best choice for that role if you really think you need one. (Don't dismiss Slegers as a possibility here as well).

And the best part is the cupboard isn't exactly barren with talented arms ready, and nearly ready to augment, fill in and replace.

Is it just me, or does it feel like we may be the best offer and option at this point? We can even front load the contract to make it more palatable down the road. Brian, not only witty but you may actually be on to something here. Would seem the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros are out. I think you may be on to something with the Twins offer. Betting they are sitting at 5 years and around $25M per, maybe with an opt out in there as well. I think there may be a very good reason neither party has met face to face yet.

Yep. From all rumors and speculation, it sure seems the market is slow because, for the first time in a long time, teams are just being smarter about tossing out big and long term contracts. What else explains such a slow moving market for all but a few of the top FA? Hard as it is to believe, MLB teams seem to be flexing a bit of financial-mental muscle for the first time in a while. Payroll, payroll coming off the books soon, a slow market, this is the perfect time for the Twins to make a huge move. A move that will come at a cost, but a manageable cost, while still fulfilling Darvish with the security he desires. He should get 4 years, probably 5, at $24-26M per. Darvish is set for life, the Twins can afford it, and could even afford to front load the contact some to make it even more palatable down the road.