DocBauer

I'm not going to pretend I have an answer here, but speculation and reflection might help? Reed got $8M per and was an established RP with some closing experience. May is younger and has better pure stuff but lacks the history. So I'm saying that would be a ceiling. But the good news/bad news situation is Covid in regard to contracts. Teams are going to lose money and I think most of agree the market is going to go flat for the next couple of seasons except for cream of the crop FA. So that makes May, and others, more affordable. Odorizzi the same way. But then again, the Twins are probably losing money as well, so what can their budget afford? A lot of ying/yang in regard to next off season.

Watching Hill was a joy. But the pen, WOW! 4 IP, ONE hit, ZERO walks, SEVEN SO.

SOMEBODY on the Bomba Squad should have THUNDERSTRUCK by AC/DC

Great article! Let us remember a couple things about young hitters in general, and Arraez specifically. Arraez turned 23 in April. And we talk about physical maturation and gaining "man muscle" as a young player. It's only partially true as we've seen other young 20yo players who already have muscles and natural power/strength. And I'm not talking about a 1B or OF who is 6' 2" plus and a good 200lbs plus. Even those guys develop physically over time via nutrition, weight gain, etc. But we also see infielders who seem to "muscle up" over time. Think Dozier, as an example. And I don't doubt for a second that power can't be developed via physical gains as an early 20+yo. But I also think some of the "muscling up" we talk about is just a young hitter gaining experience and being able to put round bat on round ball more consistently for more pop/power. Arraez is not a large human being and never will be. Doesn't mean he can't build up a bit and get stronger. And let's not forget he missed an entire milb season and had a whopping 66AB in Rochester for 2019 before coming up and sticking. He will never be, IMO, any sort of power threat. But he doesn't need to be. Greater exit velocity speaks not HR power necessarily, but hard and true singles with doubles power and a few more HR. As good as he hits and makes contact, and uses the whole field, power equates defenses playing him honest. And at that point, he has the other team right where he wants them.

#1] Cave produced his first go round. For whatever reason...pressing perhaps...he really struggled the first part of 2019 before getting his legs under him. While I doubt he is any late start STAR in the making, his strong start shouldn't surprise. My #1 problem with Cave has been he absolutely has the tools to be a decent CF, allowing him to fill in there, and allowing Kepler to stick in RF most of the time. And he's made some nice plays there. He's also made some terrible plays there and either not tracked the ball well or tried to make a tremendous play vs a safe play. If experience and/or work can allow him to play a solid CF defensively, he just raised his value to another level. I know it's only a couple of games, but he just looks more comfortable there to me. More importantly, Rocco seems to think so. #2] Adrianza has done nothing since the Twins signed him but come off the bench and contribute. He is, absolutely, a utility player. And he is no member of the Bomba squad. But he has done nothing but hit decently, maintain a decent contact rate and OB, pop some XBH here and there, and play quality defense. What more could ever be asked? As much as I love former contributors such as Newman, Reboutlet, Hocking and Pinto over the years, I think I'd take Adrianza over all of them. 3] Gonzalez did last season pretty much what he has done his entire career: produce and play well. His OPS in 2019 basically matched his career line. No matter how much we can debate about roster construction, depth and versatility, as well as flexibility, some guys are just everyday starters and some guys are role players. All he does is come off the bench a few days a week and play solid to good defense at a number of spots, hit, take professional AB, club double digit 2B and HR and make a real contribution to the lineup/team. IMO, there are very few teams in MLB that have a 3sum off their bench like the Twins have. Now, there is hope that soon we could have guys like Gordon, Blankenhorn and others...maybe even Lewis as he breaks in...who could be as good or better but this is a really, really good bench to work with right now. And I'm not sure that all 3 won't be back in 2021. I kind of wish, Cody, that "bench depth" might have included pitching. Or is that a 2nd article you have planned?

I'm going to echo this. When all is said and done, from defense to offense to mentorship of the young talent on the roster and those waiting for opportunity, Donaldson will still be the best signing. But Maeda is good. His career numbers say he is good. He eats RH hitters for breakfast and lunch and is coming off his best career year against LH hitters. The whole Dogers moving him to the pen has been overblown, IMO, from everything I've read and heard. The Dogers had enough rotation depth...one of the best in MLB ...to use him in their pen. (Nice problem to have). And I think some of the hyperbole that came with Maeda that the Twins acquired some front of the rotation stud was ridiculous. But what they got was a very good, experienced and professional hitter who can fit in well as a quality #2 or #3 guy. He may not dominate, but he just does everything well. I also enjoyed hearing Morneau speak about how well he's been fitting in with the team. Despite the language barrier, he has a good sense of humor and seems to be comfortable. One thing I feel is underrated is just how well the clubhouse works from the manager and coaches on down. The Twins seem to have built a team that is filled with ability, confidence, and good chemistry. And I believe that's been done very deliberately. So no over reaction. I disagree with over reaction #2, not only because I really never want to be compared to the Yankees, lol, but I think the Twins 2019 depth was pretty damn good as well. It's unfortunate, however, that the Twins were less healthy at the end of the season than the Yankees were at the time. But I will say the depth for 2020 is even better after Donaldson, Hill, Clippard and Maeda were brought on board. Not to mention Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Littell and Stashak gaining experience. You're obviously being silly about Sano and Rogers. But I was a little surprised Rogers and Romo never pitched. And with the day off today, Monday, I think I would have played Sano all 3 days to help him heat up. As to Cruz, well, I doubt a DH wins MVP nationally. But internally he easily could. Even at 40, could he be one of the best and most dangerous hitters in the game? Little surprised you didn't include Stashak and/or Wisler. Because...DAMN!

Two words came to mind watching him: "smart" and "professional". While a different pitcher, he reminded me a little bit of Radke. Not overwhelming velocity, but he mixed pitches, changed speeds and hit spots. Always seemed in control of himself. I was fascinated at one point where be threw something like 5 or 6 straight FBs and Morneau commented how he was changing up the Dirty Sox game plan on him by doing so. Really looking forward to watching him this season. I really like his control and ability to adjust. I think this is going to be a very smart acquisition.

In the past, there was a lot of confusion about injured players hanging around and no information and then suddenly being placed on the IL, later than they should have been. I haven't really seen this with the current FO. While they haven't always spilled out tons of information...which is their right...they seem to be protective of their players well being and aggressive with the IL and promotion. At this point, they have said "stiffness". And I will accept that and a missed start, maybe 2 with a couple early off days. If it's more than that, I will absolutely begin to worry. But I give benefit of doubt at this point. The Twins have depth, but I don't want that to be taken for granted. Thorpe has a ton of potential, and Dobnak and Smeltzer both have decent potential. But I'd like them to ease in to reliability through experience and opportunity as much as possible. Same with Duran. But a short season changes said parameters of opportunity if this is something more. In regards to an extension, there are 2 ways to look at one: 1] I HOPE NOT, but if this turns out to be chronic related to 2017, Oddo is up against a hard place and will be looking for the best 1yr deal in a post 2020 season he can get. The Twins could still need him and easily bet on him for 2021 While waiting for some of their top arms to arrive. And he's already stated he enjoys pitching for the Twins and working with Johnson. 2] Even if he is ready to go with mild stiffness, and the Twins are just being cautious, and he makes 10-11 regular season starts, and we see the 2019 version of him, he is still up against a rock, though a less threatening, less jagged rock. He is a very good #3 SP who can/has pitched like a legitimate #2 most days if you accept 5-6 IP. He was a legitimate All Star in 2019 who was almost as good the 2nd half if you take away July dealing with a finger issue. And he no longer has a draft choice attached to him for 2021. But he's also making just shy of $18M in 2020, though now pro-rated. Even if the 2020 season plays out to completion, including expanded playoffs to make up for financial losses, are teams really going to invest big money for 2021? Especially considering the CBA and questions about 2022? Except for elite talent, I would say no. I think a healthy and productive Odorizzi is looking at a 3yr deal for about $45M. I believe the Twins can not only afford that, but I think he's honest in wanting to stay here. It might also be his best offer.

So today happened. Ugh! The good news is Dobnak looked OK and I agree he he serves another start. Very disappointed in Littell and Smeltzer but not going to panic over ONE GAME, and first game at that. Not the least bit worried about Berrios after one game either. Once again, first game, limited time ramp up, and facing a good lineup. He seemed to settle down in the 3rd and 4th. Honestly, I think he was too amped up and over-throwing.

I agree on Gordon. He's had some tough luck will illness a couple minor but badly timed injuries. I agree he would probably have been called up before Arraez in 2019 if available. Of course, Arraez has worked out pretty well so far. I still believe Gordon will have a solid career as a useful utility player with decent offense. Potentially, he could still start for someone at 2B. Not what was envisioned or hoped for, but a quality/useful ML player is never anything to dismiss, despite original expectations. Whitefield has been an interesting story since the day he signed and has been one of my favorite minor leaguers to root for. I'm sure he will only be around for the first 2 weeks but should fulfill a dream by making some PR and late defensive appearances. I'm super happy for the kid and understand he's older than Celestino and has played more at a higher level, but still a bit confused why the Twins didn't just go with Celestino, already on the 40 man. I'm guess it's age, experience and the start of his clock. Earlier today, before I even read this article, I was doing a little fantasizing about the reserve roster in St. Paul and realized that if they could scrimmage someone else's reserve list tomorrow...with Gordon cleared from Covid...their lineup would look something like this: 2B: Gordon SS: Lewis RF: Kirilloff 1B: Rooker LF: Larnach C: Jeffers 3B: Blankenhorn DH: Weil CF: Celestino SP: Duran While Gordon may not be a top 20 prospect any longer, he remains a decent one. I think it could be easily argued the only real non prospect above would be Weil. That's a pretty interesting lineup right there.

Mildly scared by Odorizzi. He's had back problems before, see Tampa in 2017 for a good part of the year, though he finished strong that year. They say mild stiffness and I figured with the expanded roster he might miss a single turn and no reason for the IL. Guessing/Hoping retro will still have him missing only a start, maybe two. IIRC, they have a couple off days early so maybe this is just being overly cautious??? Crossing my fingers. I've never been sold on Bailey, and that has nothing to do with his performance Wednesday. Healthy, though younger, he was solid to very good. Healthy again, he re-invented himself in 2019. We are not talking a top of the rotation SP. We're talking a solid, experienced 5th SP. I'm trusting the FO on this one. Surprised a little by Blankenhorn not making it, even though it would only be for 2 weeks. I am borderline shocked by Whitefield. I have been a fan and hopeful supporter of his since day one. (The potential and story are just too good.) While no prospect expert the book on him is great defense with legitimate CF instincts. He has some pop and power potential. Tremendous speed and SB ability. 23yo and still a work in progress as a hitter. He has more time than Celistino at A+, so that may have been a factor. But considering a 40 man move to add him vs just keeping Celestino for a couple of weeks, I am confused. Otherwise, everything makes perfect sense.

I agree. My caveat would be the Twins final record. I'm not sold yet on Bailey, and it has nothing to do with Wednesday against the Cubs. At this point, I am only mildly concerned with Odorizzi having some back stiffness. Sano and Buxton being OK but slightly set back doesn't scare me. There is just so much depth and talent positionally speaking, and rotation and pen depth, that I honestly feel this team should win 40 games.

I don't buy in to the Dirty Sox just yet. They made some good additions and have some young talent on hand and some just about ready to make their mark. But I just think they need too much to go right at the same time to challenge this season. Cleveland is still dangerous. You have to give them the advantage in SP, even though though the Twins have quality and depth. I also like the Twins BP and depth over the Indians. We can debate INF vs OF but it's a balancing act. I'd pick the Twins overall, including DH. In the whole of AL/NL Central, the Twins and Indians should be the top 2 teams. I still don't feel the whole "Central" battle is quite the cake walk some make it out to be as there are 4 teams in the NL that could be 30+ win teams, plus Cleveland and the CDS to contend with. But Cleveland is the only team that really worries me.

Got anything good to share? I haven't see anything about Sunday.

Dobnak and Smeltzer just seem so obvious. Agree with mike that Chacin does nothing for me. Especially after what we saw in ST 1.0. I'd rather stick with the young, talented arms vs a veteran re-tread. But is Chacin showing something more/Different in ST 2.0? I could see the Twins sticking with Chacin initially because once gone, he's gone for good. I just really hope they stick to youth and upside. The "problem" I see here is too much talent. Yes, I actually said that. Assuming health and Bailey fitting in to the 5th slot, the pen FIGURES to be settled with Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, Clippard, Littell and Stashak. (Subject to poor performance we haven't seen as of yet). With one more spot available, and I'm betting Wisler takes it. The roster allows for 30 men, then 28, then 26. Barring injury or illness, where is there room for Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe when the roster crunch happens? This a GOOD PROBLEM to have. These things tend to work themselves out over a season, even a short one. But when have you ever been able to say the Twins have more quality arms than roster spots?

I would go back further and talk about Robert Smith. Injury plagued his first couple of seasons and then learned to conserve his body, or have better luck, or both, and the rest is history, (I've made this point so often it makes me irritated to state it again, lol). I'd even argue Smith was the best RB in the history of the Vikings franchise over AP, but retired early and on his own. Different topic for a different day, but we can also look at Hunters early career. He was rushed. He also fought injury. Finally, the Twins had Hunter work with Buck! A cleat in the grass is freaky, as has been a couple of his other injuries. And whether you believe in karma or not, you just DON'T give up on a 26yo talent like Buxton no matter how frustrated you may feel. His defense is extraordinary, but all of us, Twins included, would give up a few singles and a few doubles over a season if it kept him on the field. Because his being on the field still means some great outs, and some quality offense. There is no need to re-post the offensive numbers posted above in the OP. Simply, healthy, despite scratching the surface of his potential, Buck is a dangerous presence on the offensive side of the game if healthy. And he's still young, learning and growing! With a little caution, luck and development, can you imagine how good he could be a year or two from now? If injury persists and the kid remains unlucky or prone, with other talent in the pipeline, I get it. But I totally agree that now is not the time to give up on Buxton.

Sorry, but that ranking or lack of, is a joke. Hill may only be able to handle half a season but that's what he's being asked to do. And he's been great in those half seasons for a few years now and reports are he's primed and ready. (Fingers crossed for what I believe is his swan song). Berrios is STILL only 26yo and his only problem is fading late in the season, yes, I said ONLY as that is a big deal, of course. But he rebounded last year after making some adjustments to his intense training regime. And he was going to make more this season to focus more on general conditioning before the stop. Still young, still learning, he has a tremendous future. But a 60 game season? There should be no doubts about potential dominance. Oddorizi is not great, but he is solid to good to sometimes great, even if it's only 5-6IP. He was good in 2018 and turned a corner in 2019. As recounted in another thread, despite a better 1st half than 2nd, he was really good in 2019. Take away July when he was dealing with a blister issue, he was even better. He's a solid #2 but a great #3. And I hope he will be that beyond 2020. Maeda is also no stud. But his career numbers are very good. He was never thrown in to the Dogers bullpen because he couldn't pitch. Despite rumors the RICH Dogers were looking to save $ on his unique contract, it has been reported repeatedly he was moved to the pen to shore up a weakness there for a playoff run since they bad enough rotation depth. He is also coming off his best career year against LH batters. Bailey? You tell me. Sure seemed like he re-invented himself last year. If not, how about a healthy Pineda who was borderline excellent once he literally got his legs under him last season. Oh wait, how about Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer? Channing1964 made a post in the Odorizzi OP a few days ago from the Athletic where there was a poll of scouts who ranked SP on some sort of 1-4 poll. This by no means is any sort of MLB gospel, but the way the final results tallied, the Twins would have 5 or 6 of the TOP 60 SP in baseball even if they didn't have a top ACE. Yes, I'm a homer. But I've watched this team play and I've seen these arms. Not even in the top 10??? PLEASE!!!

This thread will probably die quickly, but just wanted to state I always thought letting Goodrum go was a mistake. And I'm very happy he found a home and is enjoying a degree of success. And when you look at the Twins, as currently constructed, you'd have to wonder if there would be any room for him at this point. Maybe in 2018, not so sure about 2019 or now. But kinda stinks to see a solid, versatile and fairly productive Twins home grown player doing well for someone else.

Poppen has always intrigued me. He just turned 26 I believe and was a 19th round draft choice. No handbook handy in front of me, will refer to Seth's comment above about FB/slider combination. To my best recollection he has never made a top 20 list and not sure hes even made a top 30 one either. And while his milb numbers aren't eye popping, they are solid across the board from ERA to BA, WHIP, BB/SO, with a career K rate of almost spot on at a K/9. I think he's always flown under the radar. I'm not sure why, but suspected it was pure velocity, or absence of a reliable 3rd or even 4th offering. But the K's are there, his velocity seemed good in his brief 2019 debut, and again, Seth speaks above about a good FB. I think, universally, those in the know would state that Alcala's pure stuff is better. Better control...which Hawkins alluded to...and ANY kind of even semi-decent 3rd offering, even as a look-see pitch, could vault him towards an important bullpen role, and sooner rather than later. I also agree the Twins could still ultimately "win" the Pressly trade in a season or two, but that's beside the current point. But right now, I'm betting on Poppen contributing 1st, followed by Alcala. Just have a feeling Poppen is more ready. Agree with John and others that I really, really hope Colina is kept as a SP for as long as possible. I view Chalmers and Colina with the same eye. (Was actually surprised not to see Chalmers in this OP). While different arms and somewhat different aspects to work on, they are much the same to me. There are control issues and 3rd pitch offerings to find. But both have tremendous stuff that could hopefully find both as rotation pieces in the next couple of years. (Damn but I hate not having an actual milb season)! And both seem to have the stuff to be dangerous BP arms. But I want both stretched out and working on starting for as long as possible. Thielbar would be a fun story. But it's not a story I'm buying in to. On a staff already crunching about 15 arms, where could he possibly fit unless injury/illness decimates? He might even be behind the much younger Clay in pecking order at this point. Congrats to him for keeping his dream alive. And maybe he didn't want to stick with the Tigers or they didn't like him for some reason. But if one of the most talent strapped teams in baseball doesn't keep you around, I'm just not sure the writing isn't on the wall.

Sorry if I said this before, but I like Eddie and believe in him. I also think he has great instincts. I think his biggest issue...other than a general wildness in his plate coverage...has been a pair of injuries that limited him for parts of the past 2 seasons. His sticking around might not even be questioned if not for those injuries. (Hampered his defense as well). I think he's back in 2021 not only because he's good, and his 2021 salary bump isn't really that significant, but no milb season will make it tougher for Larnach and Kirilloff to take that next step. Working with the coaches and scrimmaging is awesome compared to sitting at home. But it's not the same as a full season of play and development. Ergo, Rosario is the right choice for LF in 2021 at this time.

I believe you are thinking of Hughes

The one thing I enjoyed reading, but didn't previously comment on, was Romo's opinion of Stashak and Littell about to have a coming out party. When someone with his experience says something positive about a couple young arms, I pay attention. And there's more on their way; Alcala, Poppen, Colina perhaps, etc. I made a comment some months ago as to the depth and ability of our pen after such a strong 2019 that they were undervalued mainly because they were too young to have NAME value and recognition as a result. 2020 could be a fun "coming out party".

I agree that any piggy back scenario we are seeing is for ST 2.0. With the initial 30 man roster, it could be an initial reality to get things up and running. But a normal rotation will be in place rather soon, with a deep and talented BP.

I've been impressed with Smeltzer thus far. Flat out, he knows how to pitch. And that can never be discounted. But when you have limited velocity, you need to be able to really work the batter. An improved slider does a lot to raise his bar. I wouldn't bet against the kid, guts and instinct, especially if he finds a slider that works. But Thorpe and Dobnak have better pure stuff and Duran and Balazovic are on their way. I think he ends up fitting in best as a versatile pen arm who can give you 1-3 IP and spot start.

Oddo had a very good year, though was better the first half for sure. As stated, take away a rough month dealing with a finger issue and his season is even more impressive. In a 60 game season, anything is possible, of course. I like him a lot, glad he's back, and hope for an extension. But I just can't call him an ACE due to limited IP. He's a good #2 and a great #3. But is there further room to improve? Berrios, younger and still growing, is our #1, IMO. Hill, ready to go for a 60 game short season, could be even better for 2020, however. IMHO, Hill is done after this season, at least with the Twins. If Oddo is back in 2021, I really like that rotation as well. I'd like it better if Duran and Balazovic could gain valuable instruction, if not game time, to help set up 2021.