Hosken Bombo Disco
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Everything posted by Hosken Bombo Disco
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Sure, but if the client is interested in dragging this out until January, there's no point in going hard at him in November. -
Minnesota Twins & The Moneyball Strategy
Hosken Bombo Disco commented on MidwestTwinsFan15's blog entry in The Line of Mendoza
I was posting this on another thread but will post it here. By the way, welcome! I saw in the other thread how you want to blog and you would have a lot to contribute with your background. Anyway, I am very much a proponent of a trade (for a starter) rather than signing Darvish. I have been doing some digging for a blog post I wanted to do myself, about trading our prospect(s). The long and short is I think prospects -- any prospects below the top Mauer/Harper/Trout/Bryant/Buxton/Alex Gordon no. 1 or 2 level -- they are overrated, not to say bad players, just too much projecting of greatness that doesn't materialize. I have always felt this and now even more so. I think Nick Gordon will develop into a regular player with a couple good seasons here and there, but I think trading him for two years of Cole would be a good gamble to take. the Moneyball strategy of trading a good prospect is that you do not have a declining Darvish on the books for $20 million a season when it comes time to extend Buxton and Berrios. There is a load of talent in the AL coming up right behind the Twins (Boston, Houston, White Sox) and the Twins window with this core might be now, not three years from now. I am ok with the cheap signings they have made thus far if it is backed up by a trade for an established starter. There's my long winded response, which blogs are good for.- 6 comments
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but, I think they are seriously pursuing him. Or, maybe they think they are seriously pursuing him. Where we agree is I don't think Darvish is their best option, dollar for dollar.
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Been pretty quiet with the Darvish rumors. Maybe Darvish is deciding on which salad dressing to try at his next front office dinner meeting? Or has he even decided which team's front office to meet with next?
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Interesting data. Half serious question -- will Castro put down a sign for delivery slot, as well as pitch type?
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Zach Duke. I don't see the upgrade over anyone currently fighting for a spot but I hope he works out. I assume they will keep it stretched to an 8-man bullpen again, which I have as: Rodney Duke Kinley Rogers Hildenberger probably Busenitz +2 more, out of Moya, Pressly, Duffey, Hughes, Mejia (might start, though that is shaky). That leaves 3 starting spots in the rotation to fill, 2 if you give Gibson a spot (likely).
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How often did the Twins put Adrianza in the outfield, Gimenez at first, or go without an extra pinch hitter or pinch runner last year, because Haley was taking a Rule 5 roster spot and only pitching in a handful of games? Asking for a friend.
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Thanks for the clarification. I am leaning towards "not interested" in Darvish, especially if he wants to drag this negotiation out through mid-January. Sounds like Gerrit Cole could be acquired for less, and sooner, and Berrios might be better than Darvish after a couple more years anyway.
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Either that, or they feel they are out completely. (which imho could be a blessing)
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LENIII says the Twins know that if they want to sign Darvish, they will need to offer him the biggest contract in team history. ("Club record offer" is how he describes it.) Does he mean in terms of total dollars? Mauer signed for 8/184 in 2010. Early estimates for Darvish were around 6/140, but if Darvish is demanding close to $200 million, at that price we gotta let him go somewhere else and not let the door hit him on the way out, right?
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Nothing special about Pineda; just give us whichever broken armed guy is left over
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Well, that's a little different. I think the Twins still have the advantage. (though would still prefer a trade for a guy like Cole than tie up 100MM for the next half decade)
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So.... Cubs exploring free agent market? Heyman for the win!
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Still a great post:
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awesome. Thank you!
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All fair points, I think it's just so predictable. Instead of signing the best FA out there, or making an intriguing trade, or developing your own relievers, go out and sign an old journeyman for close to minimum. Predictable and typical. That said, I am beginning to like this signing a little more. There is nothing preventing a trade and we actually have a few young guys now who have shown MLB success and might develop into something (different from how we projected Burdi and Chargois). Rodney's work is a high wire act though. It might work, but it will be adventurous.
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I was not aware of that. ..... which probably means he's shooting the arrow to heaven.... so i guess never mind any personal criticisms of him I posted
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I'm with you. Close call, but I would prefer Cole to Darvish in this situation. Gordon is a tough guy to part with, but Granite and Jay are not hard to replace. Also, making a deal for both Cole and Darvish is not against the rules.
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I honestly feel like something big is going to happen.... (it almost has to)
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that's the arbitrary number i picked too lol
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i have to back up the opinion of the other poster. Castro's 720 OPS seems ok but it's context neutral and also below average for catchers in 2017 (or at least below median for catchers with a high number of plate appearances) When at bats mattered, Castro was terrible. Especially as the season wore on. Maybe he will do better in 2018.
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It's starting to feel like this is going to happen. Would be great if it did, or, one of the other big targets would be good too, but Darvish would be ideal.
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To get an idea of Rodney's market value, I looked at Kintzler's contract, and Kintzler signed for twice as much, twice as long, to carry a lighter load.
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Agree. I've been excited about their coaching and executive hires and other things, but they need pitchers. Good ones. Josh Kalk is not permitted to actually go out and throw the pitches for these guys.
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Really hard to follow the timeline in the original post
