Jham

Frustrating series after an otherwise fun year...

Wow, is Kepler a better hitter than Buxton? Just asking.

I'll disagree on the "wait and see" premise with prospects because I believe, right or wrong, that we have an advantage over every other team in baseball when it comes to evaluating our own talent. We see who has the work ethic, attitude, and general health to make it. We know who stays out too late, who won't stop eating, who won't quit drinking, who won't take coaching, and perhaps those who are an injury waiting to happen. If we "wait to see" if they succeed in the big leagues, we lose much of that advantage. Teams and fans alike can see what kind of player you have by watching Sportscenter. There were many Twinsdaily posters who were looking at Meyer the last couple years and hinted that he might be overrated by national prospect lists. I remember being shocked when I actually saw Delmon Young play, because he in no way looked like the number 1 prospect in the game. The Rays had to have seen that. We couldn't look past some sweet stats. Not that the eye test is the best way to access a player, but it's clear all of baseball viewed Delmon in higher regard than he probably deserved. Regarding standing pat, I do not see the team improving a ton internally. Our biggest holes in the bigs are our biggest holes in the minors. We don't have a true ace. We don't have any lights out bull pen guys (Tonkin and Achter are NOT major league difference makers), we have no high-end shortstop, and we have no catcher of the future. We can try to trade for one, but then why not trade now when they can help with a playoff run vs. trading after the season? This leaves free agency, the Twins had better be very active in this regard next year. And be ready to sell high on some guys before the deadline next year.

I like our chances with Hunter, Hicks, and Dozier with 2 on and no outs better than Robinson, Hicks, and Dozier with Robinson being counted on to get a bunt down (which he did), but that was far from a guarantee. Hunter probably should have pinch hit for lefty Hicks as well. Hicks has been better of late from the left side, but I like Hunter's experience in that spot.

We've got good veteran pitching for once. I think we need to take advantage of this window. Trading a top 12 3rd baseman for probably a bottom 1/3rd catcher seems like a surefire way to make the team worse in my opinion. Getting a veteran catcher makes more sense, but we already have one, and more can be signed in FA. McCann is going to catch in Detroit. Avila will want Avila to test free agency and make the most money he can. Unless we get a catcher who should at least be in the top half of the league next season, I think we need to roll with Suzuki, Pinto, and take a run at a FA.

Well, I did state that Zuke is already under contract. Not ideal. But if no one on that list of free agents excites you, then I ask, how good are catchers around the league if none of the options are better than Zuke? Seems to me that having a great hitting catcher is a luxury, not a necessity. I'm just not cool with trading Plouffe (or anyone for that matter) for a worse overall player simply because we don't like the performance of our current catcher who must not be that terrible if you don't see any improvement through FA outside of Avila or Wieters.

Trading Plouffe would make us worse defensively by a large margin, worse offensively by a large margin, and probably net a player who requires some grooming. Take Plouffe out of the line up to replace him with a catcher? No thanks. Oh, unless we have another DH who can step in and hit like Plouffe or Sano. Here's a list of catchers who will be FA after the season: Alex Avila (29) Chris Iannetta (33) John Jaso (32) George Kottaras (32) Jose Molina (41) Dioner Navarro (32) Brayan Pena (34) A.J. Pierzynski (39) Matt Wieters (30) I'd actually be ok with almost any of them. Zuke is still also under contract, has done well with this staff. If the rest of the line up improves, he can be fine at catcher. Unless we can move Plouffe for a top 10 catcher in the league, I'm just not seeing it.

Maybe. Berrios won't have Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May, Milone and Perkins saving games for him for 10 years though... I'm a big fan of Berrios. I think he should be in our pen right now and for the last month. Our first window to win is probably this year, next year, and 2017. If you want to bank on having things go according to plan 4, 5+ years down the line, great. If Berrios is as good as we hope, he'll want a long-term deal... and is that really better, and assuming global warming continues to have an effect on the concrete, and if the Republicans take back the White House next year.... Lots of ifs either way! At least now we have some options. That's a plus.

Would you bet on that rotation over Shields, Hughes, and Santana? (I'm assuming a berrios for shields trade). I guess it depends on whether you believe Shields is clearly better than the rest of our staff, and whether you think Berrios will be better than everyone we currently have. I'll admit that he could be, if you'll admit James Shields is currently.

Whoa, nice pieces with a couple potential stars... who's your starting rotation? Who's going to beat Kershaw or Gonzalez or Matt Harvey next year in the World Series? Even with Sano and Buxton and Arcia. Who is going to be a Cabrera or a Harper? Now the Royals got there last year by catching fire. And we could do that... but really, we could probably do that THIS year... (a couple additions needed). I mean, we could upgrade the back end of the rotation. But your 5 starter doesn't even start playoff games. I strongly believe we need to make upgrades with impact players next season. We've proven we can compete this year. Next year is time to win. We don't have an in-house ace. We don't have an in-house MVP candidate yet. Our pen is in shambles. Berrios isn't ready to be an ace. Sano isn't ready to be an MVP. You can win that way, but it's tough. The difference between us and the best team in baseball isn't Tonkin or Hamburger or Berrios or Arcia. I'm not sure any of that (other than swapping Berrios for Boyer) would improve the team let alone make us contenders. (I suspect Arcia is an upgrade over Robinson). I hope we didn't trade for anyone because we plan on buying hard in FA this year and making trades during the off season.

Who do we have in the minors who figures to be more than a bit piece on a contending team next year? Hoping a bunch of middle of the road prospects suddenly bloom into stars at the same time isn't going to work. Allowing guys like sano, buxton, and perhaps Arcia work through their youth makes sense if you think they're sure major league difference makers. Hoping for guys like Tonkin and achter to turn into playoff quality players. ..

I like the notion of trying to factor for more variables. SIERA is still based on general premises that may or may not be true in a pitcher's specific case (Fly ball pitchers limit HR, strike out pitchers have a higher GB/DP percentage). I also REALLY don't understand the idea that ERA is a flawed statistic, but SIERA and FIP are both attempting to predict future ERA... I'd rather see FIP predict future FIP and SIERA future SIERA. Why try to predict something we don't feel like using anyway? I also don't understand why taking defense out of the equation is so important when comparing teammates who play in front of the same 8 defenders... (Pace of play, ability to pound the strike zone, and your own ability to field the 1 spot may account for some variance, but those are pitcher controlled anyway)

Ummm... Jack Morris talked about how Tom Kelly said you needed to see a player for 3 years before you could really know what type of player you had. Danny Santana, Arcia, and Vargas all had big years/ half years last year. Look at what they did this year. Hicks, Sano, and Rosario all basically had lost seasons last year. So the premise of bringing up Parmalee and Hermann.... I mean Polanco and Swim or whoever... just to "see what we've got" doesn't do much for me unless you're hoping to build a contender in 3 years, or trade guys off if they come up and succeed in the short term. A good September against expanded rosters offers very little in the way of evaluation IMO. Given the steps we've taken this year along with the current construction of our pitching staff, we had better be looking to compete next year! People complained about our FA signings the last few years. IF we had played ourselves out of contention, there certainly would have been a market for Hunter, Hughes, Pelfrey, and Santana if we decided we wanted to sell. IF we had played ourselves into contention, guys unlikely to help for the next few years should have been somewhat expendable. As it were, we are sort of kind of contending for the fringe wild card spot a little bit. Veteran/prospect limbo. But organizational depth is great right now BECAUSE of the free agent signings. Veterans have value. Re: Veteran pitchers making way for "possible contributors", why sit proven guys to experiment with guys who might only be "possible contributors"? If we had a legit possible ace, that's one thing. The guys you're suggesting we replace them with have projected ceilings about where our current staff is currently performing. I was hammered in another thread for suggesting we use one of these projected starters to get Shields who would almost certainly be the best pitcher on our already decent staff. Re: giving guys a look now instead of "wasting next spring", we pay our scouts for a reason. They've been decent about telling us who is ready, and who isn't. The guys they've been reluctant to suggest have typically struggled in the bigs despite great MiLB numbers. The guys they've fast-tracked have generally done well, at least until the league adjusted. So if your question is would I rather "waste" this year's August/September trying for a Wild Card spot we're currently tied for, vs. using 2 months to plan my roster for next season and possibly wasting next year because of a rash decision to go young, I'd much rather continue our current course.

We've tried cutting him, but every time we do, he stands outside Target Field and goes all....http://s3-ak.buzzfeed.com/static/campaign_images/terminal05/2012/4/19/11/john-cusack-is-down-for-a-say-anything-sequel-1-5166-1334850413-6_big.jpg on us, and our heart melts a little, and we take him back. Damn Peter Gabrielle...

Bone... Donaldson... Robinson has been serviceable this year. I'm not going to knock his contributions. Arcia should probably be up to start for Hunter though.

If you want to total the innings and average them, great. I guess it depends on whether you like shorter possibly better starts, or longer possibly less effective starts. Pelfrey and May play in front of the same defense. Why are the results so different? Defense? I'll take Pelfrey's stretch over May's. This may change. Pelfrey seems to have lost the splitter which was a difference maker. All I'm saying is that Pelfrey's value is his ability to limit HR (shows up in FIP) generate double plays (doesn't show up in FIP) and go 9/20 starts 7 innings or more. May's biggest knock, like it or not, is that he hasn't gone deep in games, and that his walk rate and HR rate are far FAR below anything he's done in his career.

82 pitches through 4 innings? Plus fifteen pick-off attempts with Revere at the plate... Why do we start Robinson against Iwakuma, and Rosario against Price again?

Awesome...

Disappointing AB from Rosario. Walks Hunter with 4 straight out of the zone. Rosario gets 3 balls out of the zone and swings at 2 of them.

With a guy who just failed to get a bunt down... yesterday... I mean, Santana gets that bunt down, right DaveW? Also, yeah, swing away guys. Let's play with a little swagger and confidence.

The injury part is fair. The getting pulled early part I don't buy nearly as much. I remember a Nat. League start where he was pulled for a pinch hitter. Other than that, he was pulled when his control started to leave him and he was starting to get hit more. What would have happened if he were left in? Roof cave in? Wheels come off? Second wind? You could argue any of those options would be better than our pen, but compared with Pelfrey... it doesn't do much for me. Pelfrey also leads the league in double plays induced (partly defense, partly pitching) which is NOT factored into FIP, but does factor into a manager's willingness to stick with a guy and certainly adds to a pitcher's worth. I would say Pelfrey's value this year has been HIGHER than his FIP suggests this year because of the double plays and because of his ability to save the pen and go deep in games. These, again, are indicators of performance not measured by FIP. I'm not in love with Pelfrey. I'm very skeptical of his ability to continue his success unless he finds his splitter again. I just believe May helps us more out of the pen right now than getting through the opposing line up 2 and half times every 5th day.

Look at his career marks and ask yourself if you had to bet with your own money whether his BB/9ip were going to go up, down, or stay where they are at for the season; what would you bet? You could maybe argue that his K's should also go up based on his career marks, but I think pretending that May is suddenly one of the best in baseball at limiting walks and HR's is a stretch. FIP mark what a pitcher has done so far. There's no doubt he's pitched about as well as he possibly could. My bet is that he couldn't keep it up. It's fair to say he deserved the chance at that opportunity. But it's equally fair to say that Pelfrey is having a career year, and May is more likely to help us in the pen than in the rotation as the pen and staff is currently constructed.

I feel like there's some cherry picking of stats... Pelfrey's gone 7 innings or more in 9 of 20 starts this year. What more do you want from a #5 starter? May has gone 7 innings (never gotten more than 21 outs) in exactly 2 out of 15 starts this year and 0-10 last year. I don't know how many times I can repeat this, but the FIP everyone is using to proclaim that May is our best starter is skewed because of the low amount of walks and home runs May has given up. Both are likely to stabilize out to closer to his MiLB numbers. Given May's profile as a fly-ball/ strike out pitcher, I'm not confident in his ability to limit the long ball. Pelfrey, on the other hand, has almost always had a lower FIP than xFIP (meaning he has through his career shown an ability to limit HR's). Pelfrey's FIP is currently 4.05. May's xFIP accounting for an avg. number of HR's is 3.84.* Those numbers are probably within the margin of error for the sample size. I don't see how anyone can be anything but delighted with what Pelfrey has contributed. I don't see how anyone can be mad about May potentially solidifying the most glaring weakness in our team, and I certainly don't see the outrage in keeping the two in their current roles. *I understand I'm comparing FIP and xFIP, FIP seems more appropriate for Pelfrey who has posted a FIP below his xFIP virtually every year of his career. I used xFIP for May because his profile is that of a pitcher who will give up an avg. to above avg. HR total. **Additionally, I have some concerns about FIP and xFIP in general, as they start with a somewhat flawed premise that pitchers can't control contact. They eliminate 1 huge variant (defense), but don't account for GB/FB, induced double plays, etc that don't result in home runs. It's a far from perfect stat.

I was one that said it would be temporary. And if the bullpen weren't such a total mess, he would be taking Milone's spot. As it were, May is shining in the pen. He's throwing harder and attacking more directly. Going deep into games and conserving his energy was always his biggest knock. The guy he would have replaced in the rotation, Pelfrey, just put forth a start better than May has ever put up his whole career. 8ip on 100 pitches. Pelfrey, regardless of how many hits and runs he gives up, eats innings. He goes deep into games and manages his pitch count, saving the pen. 4 runs through seven full is better than 3 runs through 5 1/3rd the way our pen is giving it up. Innings eaters have value. May throwing 97 out of the pen has value.

Shields xFIP which factors in a league average home run level sits at 3.32, lower than his FIP and xFIP from the last 2 seasons. His HR/FB is over 17%. His career avg. is 11.6%. He's pitching really well assuming the HR are an aberration. There's a solid chance that neither Berrios nor any of the Twins minor leaguers will ever be as good as Shields for the next few years. Nolasco's value is pretty low right now. San Diego will not move Shields for a salary dump without prized prospects. I'm guessing Shields would take Berrios and then some. I would probably do that. We could continue to try to deal Nolasco over the off-season, or roll Pelfrey style with him next year. With Pelf and Hunter coming off the books next year, we have the money for Shields without a salary dump or payroll increase, which should also occur next year.