Jham

Polanco. All things considered, he's the surest bet to have an MLB career. He's already an adequate hitter, and an adequate fielder. The others will have to catch up and improve one aspect or another. If we believe they will improve, we can also fairly expect some continued progression from Polanco. I love his aggressiveness and willingness to compete. He's never looked over-matched or intimidated at the big league level. He swings like he wants to hit for some power, and he has only to improve marginally to be as good as the guy in front of him, who in fairness, probably deserves to be mentioned in this thread as a player who has already improved and taken steps we're trying to extrapolate out of the kids chasing him.

"Twins rotation candidate pleased with outing overall" - About Ricky Nolasco... Really? http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/166151096/twins-ricky-nolasco-makes-spring-debut "I felt good," Nolasco said. "My arm felt good. Everything felt good body-wise. The ball was coming out decent. So, I'll try to build it up from there. I was just rushing a little bit. But I just want to be healthy this spring and see what happens."

Nunez doubling, then his helmet coming off. Right where we left off? Can we part censored negative comments? Like "here we go again, arcia!" Then strike through "again" so its just "here we go arcia!"

Nunez hitting with buxton, arcia, and park striking out. Exactly where we left off...

Well... that's twins baseball all right.

Silva once through a complete game shutout in 66 pitches, with I believe 6 double plays. He then flung the ball into the second deck in celebration. It might take him 132 pitches and 12 double plays now... somehow... and his celebratory toss may only reach the ondeck circle now, but he couldn't do any worse than Ron Washington instantly tearing his hamstring or Hrbek registering a 4.2 on the Richter scale in their respective legend's game appearances.

If we got rid of all the posts irrationally bashing the Twins, we'd just be left with the posts irrationally bashing the White Sox...

Wow, analysis not predicated upon hindsight bias and an ability to see the future! Refreshing. The other alternative is to avoid the Asian market altogether because of one bad result and arguably bad signing. Slap hitter can't really shorten their swings anymore than they do which is why Nishi struggled with big league fastballs. Park has a monster swing and power to all fields which leads me to believe he has a better chance to adjust and perhaps has the bat speed already to catch up.

Your premise assumes studs at all positions. Few if any teams can field a line-up like that. Virtually every team will have to make decisions sacrificing offense for defense at any number of places around the field. Basically, you can try to balance your strengths and weaknesses around the field. Sure you can say that Sano at 3rd would allow you to move in another Sano in right, but we don't have any more Sano's. The player we'd move into right would have to outhit Nunez by a wide enough margin to compensate for Sano's defense at third. Nunez hit well enough last year, and Sano fielded poor enough (ok in limited big league duty) to make that possibility far from a guarantee such that it warrants moving Sano back to the infield.

I agree that a 4 year signing for Collabello would be a bad outcome, still not a bad signing in my mind, as sluggers with Park's power don't come along often or cheaply. If he turns out, we come out ahead huge, if not, we paid him 1/3rd as much as Nolasco, and should get at very least a better version of Collabello.

Is virtually everyone so certain that Park will instantly succeed and take over DH? I've heard a lot of people say low risk/high reward, particularly if he succeeds over the length of the deal. He is one of the more intriguing players on team with a lot of intrigue. I think everyone is anxious to see what a line up that included Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and Park would look like if they all turn out. Everyone wants to see Park face major league pitching to see if he can make a quick adjustment and hit 25+ dingers. But I haven't seen one person argue that he will be able to step right in and have immediate success. My guess is that our opening day DH will be the DH we ended with last season. Rosario Buxton Arcia.

So I really don't why there are still Nishioka/Park comparisons. How on earth are those comparable players? If we're looking at independent leaguers turned prospects at an advanced age, Collabello would probably be a much better comparison. Collabello is a serviceable piece on an MLB squad, but he was not a 50HR guy in the independent leagues or minors, although he was very good. I would expect Park to be at least that good... Speculation regarding trading Plouffe makes no sense. We don't know what was offered, and IMO, it's not like trading him automatically makes us better, and it might make us worse. Did nobody notice the league adjusting to Sano and him crashing back down to earth late last season? He started out at Miguel Cabrera level, but ended up at sort of Adam Dunn territory. The amount of banking we are doing on a young young player with much to prove is unrealistic and unfair for Sano. He failed to lose the weight the team wanted, he fired his agent and hired Jay Z... I'm less than convinced that we don't need a variety of options going into the season. It's not like we can't move someone once the season starts. If the trade deadline passes, and Plouffe is still seen as an impediment, then it's time to get upset. But for all the Sano in right question marks, scouts had just as many Sano at third question marks last year. Regarding stud pitchers, I like how the Royals trade for big arms. Yes, they have to trade prospects, but they avoid the big long-term contracts that teams like the Royals and Twins can't or more accurately refuse to pay for pitching. If you want the Twins to get a stud pitcher, it won't be in FA, so be prepared to give up some farm.

It's not like they were terrible either. If we signed any more veteran arms Twinsdaily would explode, along with the heads of half of its posters. I'd move May to the rotation, put all my eggs in the Duffey basket, and break camp with Berrios before I'd go sign another veteran arm. Get to the All Star break then see if the rotation needs upgrading. A full year of Santana, a healthy Nolasco and Hughes, Gibby was supposed to be leading the rotation by now, and young promising arms to supplement. No reason the rotation shouldn't be markedly better this season.

That's my point. Our most recent memory of Gardy is him being fired. This after his no-talent squads that lost 90+ games for 4 seasons straight. It's hard not for doubt to creep into the mind when that happens. I'd argue that was more a function of talent than management. Meanwhile, Mollie got the advantage of being the new guy, having a much better roster, and having not had any losing seasons. Ultimately, a fair assessment of Gardy should take into account his entire resume, not just the year or years that got him fired, and certainly not the fact alone that he was fired.

Hard to judge at this point. Every manager gets fired. Doesn't mean you're a bad manager, just means your message gets stale, change shakes things up and gets more effort. Gardenhire was a much better in-game-manager. Molitor seemed unprepared for many late game situations. Suzuki striking out to end a game late in the season with Vargas representing the tying run in the dugout comes to mind. Gardy seemed much more willing to go against the organization. Specifically, he called for Meyer in the pen 2 years ago, and Santana not to be a shortstop (i think this ultimately got him fired). Now Meyer is in the pen, and Santana is back in the outfield after submarining the infield for half a season last year. Gardy is the better manager by a wide margin at this point. As Molitor gains experience, this gap should bridge. We bounced back from devastating losses and sweeps to play well. I'm interested in seeing what happens now without Hunter keeping the clubhouse loose and providing mentorship. Can Molitor provide that? Gardy was pretty even keeled with an ability to get firey when needed, overly loyal, and decidedly old school. Close call right now.

This a fine idea in theory. It makes sense, and has benefits. At the same time, the opposite argument also makes sense, that you can rely on your veterans, and if one falters, you've got young studs to plug in. Young players have options, veterans don't. Young players can be sent down, veterans must be sent to the DL with an imaginary injury. There are merits to going young or going with experience. I have doubts about May's ability to sustain his level of success in either role, although he seems to be learning to pitch a bit. I'd move Meyer back to starting since he's seemingly lost some zip on his fastball and break on his breaking ball. He's still a big strong kid, and if he can re-learn his craft and learn to mix spins and speeds, the rotation is a more likely landing spot. Berrios will force his way in soon enough. Bringing him up immediately simply isn't necessary. Duffey forced his way in last year, and is 50/50 in my mind to do it again. No matter which direction you go, it's nice to have actual quality options compared to prior years.

Well in a bubble where you can predict the future, I suppose that could be true. I think you doubled down on the absolute Chief was warning you to avoid. Aside from the fact that Chief was directly referencing money and not prospects, a small percentage of prospects ever make a difference at the big league level. Most of the time you can easily recovery from losing a couple prospects, even blue chip prospects. Your assumption that giving up a prospect or two would hurt us in the future is an over-assumption. Well run organizations should have some balance between present and future. If your goal is to win a championship, you run your organization one way. If your goal is to win multiple championships, you might run it another way. If your goal is to stay consistently competitive and make money by convincing your fan base that you're a small market team who should be prouder of making the playoffs on the cheap than winning a World Series on a larger budget, then you're the Twins. If your goal is to consistently be a farm system for other big league squads, then you run through your prospects with little thought to your W/L record, and provide the other teams with detailed reports of your prospects so they refuse to trade for the bad ones, and wait to outbid you on the good ones. After 7-8 years, you may have accumulated enough high first round picks to finish at .500. (Twins last year). At this point some teams may think it more fun to actually make the playoffs and go after a Gomez and a Fiers. To each their own. People enjoy baseball for a lot of reasons. Watching prospects develop is the one good thing about following a losing team. Following a winner, no matter how its built is much more fun, to me.

Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Nolasco. As of now. 5 proven arms (when healthy). Berrios should have been brought up and pitched out of the pen last year. The Twins' explanation (excuse) for holding down players has often been stated that "once we call them up, we want them to stay up." Makes sense at first glance. On the other hand, it completely wastes option years, and keeps guys down that could have helped in the short term, like last fall. That said, the risk of starting the service clock early is that it brings about your decision to extend a year early. If you aren't going to extend, then you should trade. So in essence, you trade a year of a veteran stud in his prime for a couple months of a rookie stud-in-the-making. Think how different things would have been if we would have waited a couple months with Mauer. What does his contract look like if we aren't forced to extend after an MVP season? In truth, a couple pitchers will probably pitch themselves out of it. Duffey I suspect... another pitcher will come up with a real or more likely imaginary injury, allowing us to stock pile him, Milone I suspect... May will be not be given a real shot, and we'll be left with Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, and Taylor Rogers who will get skipped most of the time until Berrios gets called up. When Milone dominates AAA and nears the end of his post 60 day DL with maximum allotted rehab stint, another starter (probably Hughes) will come up with some injury after not pitching well and go to the DL after failed attempts to trade Nolasco, Milone, and Hughes.

Is this an ABW thread, a Twins lack of embracing money ball thread, or a personal preference for evaluating prospects thread? The first two are pretty tired. The Twins are advancing him each year despite his lack of progress in his problem areas, I'm not sure what the Twins should do differently. It's not like rushing him or holding him back would really tell us anything, as continued failure or success would probably just tell us he has unbelievable power but little pitch recognition/poor contact. The whole point of money ball is to find traits that are undervalued by the market. Buy low, sell high. If all the teams are looking at OBS and K/BB, then the Twins have no advantage in those markets, being a middle of the road payroll team. Hence our continued search for Scott Diamonds in the rough. Finding the guys that the metrics can't single out would be a form of money ball, or lottery, depending on how you look at it. Billy Bean was ridiculed for his unconventional roster construction at first. Ultimately, his best teams, and our best teams were the ones with players that looked great both on paper and on the field (as most great players do). I've found that prospects are hard to evaluate period. 1) the stats are skewed by competition making them harder to trust and compare. Look how much stats fluctuate in September (no fact check) when you're playing a good team that is in a race vs. a bad team shelling out AAA players. Or Spring Training. Minor leagues tend to have a similar disparity except over the course of season. I think this is the main problem scouts have with ABW. The notion is that he mashes fastballs and bad pitchers, but whiffs repeatedly against breaking balls and good pitchers. In the Majors, all the pitchers are good and all can throw a breaking ball. I have never seen him play, save for an at bat or four. I can't tell you how he hits against better competition. Mostly, I evaluate prospects based on scouting reports of people close to the game. I've been burned by impressive stat lines (Liam Hendricks for 1). National scouting reports are often misleading based on the amount of players they have to cover. I tend to look closer at organizational comments and actions. Especially those of the minor league managers. Mientkiewicz stated that Rosario's bat was MLB ready despite his unimpressive hitting line in AA. He also said Buxton's wasn't despite the solid production. It helps if you can read the stat line, but it's more helpful if you watch them play every day and know how those stats are accumulated. Finally, I take into account the opinions and counter-opinions of my esteemed Twinsdaily posters!

Duffey seemed to have impeccable control over all of his various curves. It was impressive to watch, but my thought in watching him was that he was in a zone where he was at his best in terms of feel and confidence in his pitches. I found it highly unlikely that he could keep that up relative to his history. A change up takes as much touch and feel as throwing multiple curves. Sure a change could go a long way, but it's also possible it messes with his rhythm as much as it messes with the hitters'. I'd have him go forward throwing his curves as long as he can continue to have success.

I get the stats arguments, particularly if you can't watch them play, or are measuring something that is difficult to judge or misleading when looking at with the eye test. There was a time where Boyer earned his way into more high leverage situations. At that point, he either got tired, hurt, or the league caught up. He had a lot of really really quality outings. He had a lot of terrible outings. I'm not judging this on ERA like you've accused. I have no idea what his ERA is. I'm going on watching nearly every one of his appearances. Without looking, I would say his bad outings looked better in the box score than they actually were because he was coming in during a messy inning. I'm guessing that's true of every player asked to come in to mop up. Point is, the value of watching the games is to get more information than that contained in a box score, even with advanced metrics. I saw Tonkin and Presley fail again and again in high and low leverage spots. At times, they showed signs of adequacy, for instance, Presley's one start was decent. At no point did either of them approach dominance, or even the level of Boyer's best outings. Best vs best, Boyer was better. Boyer is not that good. I don't know which advanced metric or scouting report you are looking at that has lead you to believe that either Tonkin or Presley will ever be dominant. Clearly, that opinion hasn't come from having actually watched them pitch. If you don't believe that the Twins with Boyer was a better team than Twins with Tonkin last year, then I'm not sure we're talking about the same two players. Sorry if I don't want manipulate my roster just so Bremer can reference how Tonkin is Kubel's brother in-law right before he gives up back to back HR's and gets sent down for the 8th time. I'm actually not that low on Tonkin or Presley, I'm just confused as to why it's even worth arguing about. Maybe if Tonkin gets more innings he'll turn into Rivera. Maybe if Rubio hoists up 30 threes a game he'll turn into Steph Curry. Sorry if this got a lil over the top. It's been a long off-season...

Why are people piling on Boyer? Boyer came from out of baseball to throw really well at times, poorly in others, but he was am important piece when not over used. His best was so far superior to Tonkin or pressley's last season, yet they are the ones with upside? I'd say they likely have Boyer upside. Signing boyer or kintzler costs nothing. Getting an arm at the deadline when your aaaa guys fail costs prospects and games. Be mad at Tonkin for failing 3 years straight. Be mad at pressley for wasting his hall pass and never developing a 2nd pitch despite a year in the pen to practice. Don't blame management or Boyer for almost making the playoffs or exceeding expectations.

I don't remember Quentin being that good in his prime. I thought of his as a bat first possible PED guy whose body would break down and whose game would fall off as soon as his bat speed dropped a half a mm. I'm much more concerned with Sano living up to huge expectations while shifting positions.

I'm more concerned with Danny Santana going back to hitting 27 doubles and 7 HRs than going back to the outfield. How do you go from 7 bombs to none? He needs to swing harder and stop just trying not to strike out. Maybe sometime in the outfield will help. I don't get how either. I just want it fixed.

Not to mention the fact that the real "profit" for a team comes when the team is sold. Since Pohlad purchased the team, the team got a public funded stadium, a new TV Deal, league-wide profit sharing with no requirement that shared profits be reinvested in payroll, probably a budding Korean fan base. Forbes has the Twins as the 12th most valuable team in baseball worth an estimated $490 mil. In 2001, Pohlad offered to sell the team for $150 million. He's "made" $340 million in 15 years by just breaking even. Of course, the Pohlads typically do better than breaking even...