Jham

So sometimes I think Alex Meyer as a top prospect is just more myth or legend than anything based on reality. I mean, how hard does he actually throw? Some people say ability to touch 100, or consistently upper 90s? Fangraphs, SSS, had him at 95.6 mph on avg. Now that is impressive, but this is not Craig Kimbrel nor Ardolis Chapman nor Delin Betances territory. Big difference between 96 and 97 let alone 99. Still the comparisons to Randy Johnson? Call it poor control or bad luck or whatever, but the guy has trouble getting outs against minor leaguers. The K's are nice, but I am starting to think it has less to do with his stuff and more about his wildness. He can strike out impatient young hitters, but not so much those with refined approaches. Major league lineups are pretty much full of hitters with refined approaches. That doesn't bode well. Nor am I very confident that he will suddenly find his control, although he's apparently changed his release point several times, so maybe when that evens out... If we're basing our opinions on how his skill set will potentially play up instead of his actual body of work, the we need to be real about what his skill set actually is. Straight mid-90s fastball, no consistency, lack of location, little confidence in tertiary pitches, and a good secondary pitch which I would guess that he tips considering reports of hitters having no problems laying off his slider.

Not trying to hijack the Park thread, but I wonder where people say he doesn't care. This is one possible explanation for his struggles. Yet another would be that he cares too much and thus doesn't handle adversity well at this stage. From what I've actually seen of him, he seems to care more about his team's success than pretty much anyone else on the team. He played super-hard when the team was terrible. I'm sure it was tough to have a good year going only to watch his team make a great run without him as he rehabbed injury. Then he got jumped by four, FOUR other prospects in the organization. The team needed his left-handed power bat, but he could do nothing to help. I'm sure he was beyond frustrated by that point, and I don't think he was ever healthy. He's simply better than what he showed last 2nd half. Something had to be wrong, and I do not see any evidence to suggest that the problem was that he didn't care enough. Regarding Park, you can point to other average players with big success in Korea, and you can point to Kang's late run at rookie of the year before his injury. There's evidence on both sides. His swing seems quick to the ball for a power hitter, while gaining some length when he deploys the kick and upper cut. The short quick swing should allow him to catch up to some high heat, BUT his shorter swing seems to be a compensation for him liking to let the ball travel deeper. This would indicate that he'd struggle with higher velos unless he can adjust and start his swing earlier in order to catch the ball in front. I know that Bruno has really worked with Mauer and Hicks on this with decidedly mixed results. Bottom line, there's nothing to say he won't be able to put up huge MLB numbers, nor is there any reason to assume he will be an impact player. He has the tools to adjust if he can remake his swing a little (which Parker shows that he's already done), but his success hinges on his ability to adjust. A statement like that is so obvious that it would not make for very interesting forum debate, although you'd probably get a lot of 'likes' for it.

Personally, I've always said Hick's D is way overrated in CF. Good corner guy, but struggles going back on balls and taking efficient routes, not as big a deal in left or right where the balls almost always tail toward the line. He may take away some singles, and cut off a few balls to hold guys to singles, but his misplays are always doubles, triples or inside the park jobs. No tears here.

Not to jump in on sides, but I didn't see Seth's comments as diametric opposites. On the one hand, you have a pretty solid back up catcher who hit well enough in the minors, and almost not at all in the bigs. Regardless of whether he could ever be league average with the Twins, the reality of the situation is that he would never get that chance. He would be DFA'd either way. Get something, or get nothing? Based on flashes of power, I think Hermann probably is better than he's shown, but he doesn't fit with a team who is looking to add a sure-fire starting catcher and already has a capable back-up. As Seth stated, he could be wrong. Twins can't afford to be wrong. Hence we continue to look for lower risk options behind the plate and gain a roster spot and prospect out of the deal. Thus you can very reasonably state that Hermann could be league avg. and still call this a good trade.

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/we4n5VOApPz4ui8vD_EPew--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3NfbGVnbztxPTg1/http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/sports/2015-02-17/5a34ced0-b6df-11e4-90ee-91e02c275689_bob-uecker-major-league.jpg "You know I used to hate Parkman when he was with the A's It's funny how a new uniform can change your attitude about a guy. [Covers Mic] He's still a..."

Hmmm... Cards, Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets.... Royals, Jays, Yankees, Stros, and Rangers... The only teams without a true ace Cardinals and Yankees, had borderline aces and were eliminated at their first opportunity. The Rangers and Jays were out of it before dealing for aces. The Royals went and got Cueto who was fantastic in Game 5. If you don't have an ace (or several) you had better have a lights out rotation top to bottom. Arieta, Mets anyone, Price, and Cueto. That seems to make a pretty solid case for needing an ace to both make the post season, and win in the post season. Twins need an ace. Berrios, May, Meyer, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes, Santana.... very very very unlikely that any of those would turn out to be truly dominant. Especially in post season.

That's true. And Hicks doesn't have the protective layer of mohawk that Rosario and Arcia have...

I can't imagine Arcia was healthy. I think he wanted to get back to the bigs to help the club on it's wild card run. I'm guessing the trainers told him he couldn't injure his back worse, so he tried to fight through. I'm guessing he comes back and mashes like almost always again this spring. I'm guessing. Hicks was incapable of even a 5 week hot streak in prior years. He has most certainly progressed. I've always said his CF defense is overrated. I think he's a perfect part time player. Can take professional at bats, can swing for the fences, solid defensive player with range and arm to play all positions. By far his biggest problem is balls over his head. Well, he wouldn't have to worry about that with the wall in right... Rosario should probably be moved into the infield or two a team for trade value at this point.

After leading in statistical probability of advancing to the ALCS for most of the game, the Rangers and Hamels found themselves in virtual coin flip scenario partway through the 7th inning. After a lead-off single in the top of the 7th, the, the Rangers jumped to 56% favorites to win. A sacrifice bunt followed which actually dropped their odds of winning 2% historically. A ground out advancing Odor to 3rd put us back into a coin flip, with the Jays actually a slight favorite to win. Then one of the most bizarre plays I've ever seen. I love playoff baseball because every single pitch means so much. It could mean the season. But who could predict a throw back to the pitcher could almost serve as the defining play of the postseason? Unbelievable. As the ball deflected off of Choo's bat and Odor crossed the plate, the Jays went from slight favorites to 2-1 underdogs. The Rangers were 65% to win and advance at that point. Which means the Jays with much help from shakey Rangers D went from 35% dogs to 93% favorites after Joey Bats blast in the bottom of the inning. What a wild inning. It will be hard for the rest of the postseason to live up to this drama! Full live probabilities here: http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2015-10-14&team=Blue%20Jays&dh=0&season=2015

For the record, Fangraphs has Blackburn's career avg. fastball velocity at 93.1 mph. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4270&position=p&pitch=FA Really, he's more of an example of needing more than pure velocity rather than pitching to contact.... I remember him being a lot better when his fastball was diving at 91 than straight at 94.

Why on Earth would we give up anything to cut ties with Nolasco? Bring him along next year, and if he's terrible, you cut him and eat the salary. I suspect with his track record we'll be able to get some use out of him next season. At least I hope so. It's hard to say whether Kepler has peaked yet. Ditto Rosario, Hicks, or Buxton. Personally, I refuse to trade low on Arcia or Nolasco. They're worth more with us than anyone will risk to get them. Rosario is the guy who seems most likely to regress, but I am in the minority that don't see him as a great defensive outfielder. I think his bat could be valuable in the infield however. Apparently Dozier was hurt. I'll reluctantly give him another shot because he's not real expensive. And at his worst, he's a solid defensive 4. I don't see Vargas outproducing Plouffe by enough to justify having Sano play 3rd every day. Maybe if we re-signed Hunter. Deadline trade candidate IMO. Hicks is all over the board. He covers ground, he's got a rocket, but he's got poor instincts. I'd look to move him. In the end, I don't care which young outfielder is dealt, or which arm out of the rotation, I'd say it probably has to be Hughes or Gibson, as long as something is done to improve the few spots we'll realistically be able to upgrade.

I've been wracking my brain over which positions we can upgrade. The easiest spot is 1B, but that's not going anywhere. Trading Plouffe or Dozier would appear to be downgrades. I could see improvements in all OF positions and rotation, but we already have a ton of guys there that are all only OK. Most of the spots in the rotation are entrenched. As others have eluded, SS would be tough to appreciably improve on. That leaves me with the outfield, catcher, and bull pen as places to improve through trades or FA signings. If Hunter walks and Plouffe is traded like many want, that's 45 HR we have to make up for (let alone defensive losses). I think Sano can make up 15 of those, but I don't see us signing a corner OF or DH who will hit 30. For that reason, I'd say we have to keep one of those guys, if not both. Trade Rosario or Buxton who would likely bring a pile in return. Where do you see us upgrading?

Of course, the infatuation with future return limits trade partners as well. In order to be fair, your example should be $1M guaranteed in 2016 and $0 after vs. $0 in 2016 and a possibility of up to $2M after that. There is some value in a known commodity. Even if you feel you have multiple serviceable options, you might still pick the wrong one for half a season and cost your team. I agree on maximizing your return. I disagree that trading for immediate return is worse than trading for prospects or over-paying in FA. Hasn't seemed to hurt the Yankees. The Tigers gave up Smyly, Austin Jackson, and a utility infielder for Price, and still received 3 prospects back when they dealt him to the Jays.

For me, the talk of extensions boil down to 1 thing: Do you expect Esco/Dozier/Plouffe to exceed their current pay levels during arb/FA, and if so, can you extend them for less? Most of the arguments seem to surround whether or not the player discussed will exceed their current pay level or not. There's no way to know. And the arguments are moot since we don't know the years and money. It's sort of like asking whether it's worth calling a bet in a Texas Hold'em game with Queen Ten of diamonds. The right answer is maybe, depending on the price and your particular read of the other cards dealt and your opponent. Escobar is a close call. If we can sign him at utility infield money, with the only risk being injury, then I jump on that. If we have to pay him like a top 10 SS, then obviously not. Presumably we'd be offering more guaranteed money in exchange for less yearly salary. It's a balance. I'm ready to trade Dozier rather than betting on his ability to continue slugging or learning to drive the ball to right. I want to see Rosario's arm make a difference in the infield. Probably won't happen. Polanco should be solid enough. Plouffe to me, is a guy you keep. He's been solid. I don't consider him super dependable, but he's a good player, and a better defender than Sano.

To me, a 1 game Wild Card doesn't even feel like playoffs. These last few weeks have been as enjoyable watching them pull together and find a way to stay in it till the end to the point where losing a 1 gamer wouldn't have added much for me. I can't be mad at Boyer. He wasn't even supposed to be in baseball this year. He's been occasionally pretty good, and sometimes very very bad. Mostly depending on usage and his ability to snap off a breaking ball for a K now and then. I think we got more out of him than I expected, and it's not his fault that he pitched himself into a set-up man position. What disappoints me about the season is the 2nd half collapses of Dozier, Gibson, and Perkins, the confirmation that Mauer will never again be Mauer, and failure of Buxton and Meyer to make even a small impact. Hughes continued his good year/bad year Dr. Jekyl thing. He should be good next year! (out of the pen I hope). Molitor seemed to have a very quick hook with starters. I wonder if that's organizational protection of arms. Our starters wore down. Our bullpen wore down. Catch 22 I guess. Yes, Milone was coming off a tired arm yesterday. But 2 days in a row, our starters were locked in a pitchers duel with Santana and Young, and Milone and Ventura. Both times Molitor pulled his starter and immediately fell behind. In both instances, Yost stuck with his starter for another inning and kept us on lock down. Perkins needs to get with Guardado and start working on being dominant without throwing 97. May is an asset in the pen and in the rotation. I'm thinking he helps out more in the pen If Dozier doesn't want to be a better Lew Ford, he needs to make adjustments and hit the ball the other way. We should be set up for a big run next season. We have to upgrade the rotation. We could still use upgrades in a number of areas. The easiest places to upgrade would be corner outfield, catcher, and 1B. Other than catcher, we're locked in with what we have, and upgrades are unlikely. We have depth in the rotation and the pen, but neither is much above average. This could be the biggest off-season for trades in team history.

Shows how important strike outs are. Even nubbers can mean his and runs.

Even when Perk was dominating his velocity was way down. His k's were way down. Last year he slid. He performed admirably when his control was pin point. Later in the year when he lost his feel and even more speed, he was pretty rough. He should have taken more off and continued to hit his spots, but seemed to consistently over throw instead. I saw Hughes pitch as well as I've ever seen him throw beating Kluber while not hitting 90 on the gun. He pitched to his health and figured out what he needed to do. Perkins never adjusted. Neither did Dozier who had somehow gotten a free pass...

In many ways, Milone and Pelfrey have epitomized our season. Just when you think they're done...

I was going to start a separate thread, but I figure it's still too early to be so negative, but if the Twins miss the playoffs by a game or two, which game or decisions hurt the most looking back? Some obvious ones aren't so obvious any more. We can safely cross off "not acquiring Tulo" and signing and playing Hunter and Pelfrey. It also looks like throwing Duffey in against the Blue Jays wasn't as crazy as that looked. I still look at Yankees series as the turning point. I think we lost our swagger at that point, and have survived on grit since then. We lost the sweep against Texas in a tough extra inning loss. We could have pushed them 3 back, instead they left a game behind. Pulling Duffey from a shut out against Houston looms huge right about now. Many have argued that May was the right play in that situation. My thought is May should have either come in at the beginning of the inning, or Duffey deserved the opportunity to get the last out in the 7th. Losing to Smardja after a Rosario grand slam hurt. Losing a 5-0 lead with one hit hurt too. We have Hermann pinch hitting for Buxton and too many bunts or not bunts or steals to list. We've made a bunch of great calls this year, but some of the bad ones are haunting..

Also, I'm pretty sure Law did not think Berrios' stuff would play at the MLB level earlier this year, and that his likely ceiling would be a solid 3 in a couple years. At what point did he change his mind that drastically?

I don't think your opinion will be echoed by many on TD, but I love your passion. Your stance, however, is probably a popular one among local media members and ticket-holders. I think most of Twinsdaily love to think they're more informed and knowledgeable than the average fan, media member, and occasionally the manager or GM. In fact, most of the time they are. Which is what makes TD great. There's a tendency to get excited over the players that might be under-rated (usually prospects) or over-rated (usually vets) by the media or common fans, because it justifies the effort we put in to following the game on deeper levels than most. In short, don't take the posts personally, and don't let them keep you from cheering your lungs out for your favorite players. Different posters rely more or less heavily on different metrics and accept anecdotal evidence to more or less degrees. This, to me, highlights what I love about baseball: that there are so many variables, not even the most advanced metrics can perfectly measure even most of them. People can watch the same player and debate his merits, and completely disagree, and yet still, both can be right! Beautifully-nuanced game.

WAR isn't a really meaningful stat in my mind. Every team, every roster is constructed differently. Hunter allowing some singles to drop isn't really that damaging compared with say Hicks playing outs into doubles or triples getting turned around (which is why outfield d IS important). But in the real world, Hunter doesn't have to be better than replacement, just better than Shane Robinson, Arcia, and apparently Danny Ortiz is now in the mix. Hunter is solid offensively, and plays in front of a huge wall in right. He seems to be handling a reduced role and more rest fantastically. And yes experience and leadership do matter. I also find the notion that fans only defend or want to resign Hunter because he's a long-time Twin and fan favorite pretty offensive. You can always fall back on that, so it pretty much amounts to a cheap shot. You're a knowledgeable fan. I'm sure you can consider a number of scenarios, some which you may not prefer, where it would make some sense to keep Hunter at least as a security blanket or depth.

What? Keeping Hunter is not the reason to trade a young outfielder (or Plouffe for that matter) and improve the roster or farm system. Does Hunter make the team better? Arguable. I just don't see how losing Hunter makes us clearly better than say dealing Rosario for value and bringing up Kepler. I know Hunter is super unpopular on these blogs, and he's probably only fueled that by having a productive season and proving his detractors wrong. But please be open to ideas about improving the roster beyond, "Well we'll just call up player X and he'll hit 21 HR and drive in 80 for us as a rookie."

How are these even remotely close to the same thing? Pelfrey was awful, then injured, then we resigned him (not a horrible signing as it turned out). Hunter has at least played to expectations and added a lot to this team and to this season. Perhaps some people would have rather watched the Twins fade from contention in June while watching Danny Ortiz and Ozzie Arcia play themselves out of the majors with not but the drama of whether Buxton can finish the season above Butera line to follow the last few weeks. Those who can't appreciate the season Hunter has put together at 39/40 just seem cynical and upset that Terry Ryan was more right than they were. Hunter has given me no indication that resigning him should be 100% ruled out. If Hunter retires or goes to another team we get nothing. If we traded Rosario, Hicks, Kepler, or Buxton, we could potentially get a huge return. If we did trade one of these guys to upgrade the roster or the farm system, I'd feel more comfortable having Hunter back. For that reason alone, the notion shouldn't be outright dismissed as many posters are doing.