Major League Ready

I said the exact same thing last year. Maybe it was 72-92 if I recall. This year I think the floor is higher. I think the range is 80-90.

I am a little fuzzy on where you are coming up with these numbers. According to Spotcast, Kansas City's projected Total Payroll is $108,167,477 not $138M. Why are you comparing the Luxury Tax Payroll instead of using the projected payroll total. I guess I am asking why the Luxury tax number is a better representation than their actual payroll. Royals Payroll

This is a huge year for our pitching pipeline. Maybe that's true every year but it seems like we have nobody we can be real confident in but several guys with enough talent to be impactful. Canterino and Prielipp have top of the rotation stuff but can't stay healthy. Could they finally get over the injury bug. Festa / Raya / SWR / Lewis / Culpepper and Ohl have shown well in the lower levels but need to show at the higher levels before we can get too excited about them contributing. Hopefully Bowen earns his place among these promising prospects. BTW ... I think Ohl might surprise some people.

My money is on Alcala and Staumont being in the BP with Varland in what Ober's role was last year.

The Duran to SP angle is really interesting. The additions of Topa and Jackson open that avenue but I think it's a bit of a longshot. Bullpens play a bigger role in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. That said, I would welcome it because it would be a lot of fun to watch and they can always put him back in the BP if it fails. The 40 man management and the potential for other trades very soon is also has my attention. I will be checking MLB trade rumors often this week. I think a trade for a RH outfielder is as likely as a trade for starting pitching.

I totally understand where you are coming from and I was one of the minority that did not want to trade him in June last year. However, we just can't make any mistakes with muti year deals. Correa, Buxton, and Lopez represent $70M/year for the next several years. Plus we have a bunch of guys hitting arbitration next year. There is also a decent chance E-rod is ready by the 1st half of next year. Now, if he ends up playing like he did the last half of 2023 for the next 4 years, I will regret not signing him. I just don't have much confidence that happens.

Over their careers, Ryan has average 1/4 if an inning more per start than DeSlafani. Ober has averaged .11 inning less per start..

Door number 3 (not signing him now) has some reasonably good outcomes as well. One, he has a good year and they give him a qualifying offer. They either get him on a one-year deal or get a comp round pick. Two, he is Max Kepler of 2021-22 and we would rather not have a long-term contract. Three, he has a good year and they pay him a little more than they would now. The dark horse, Larnach takes off, Wallner goes to right, Larnach to left.

There is a giant hole in your strategy. You don't have to count on them but how do you get to year 4 if you never give young guys an opportunity and you are never for giving them an opportunity. You are also completely ignoring what’s going on around the league. Most teams disagree with you and are not only giving more young players an opportunity, but they are also pushing them to the big leagues faster than ever before. Texas won the WS with a couple rookies and 3 prearb players playing important roles. Evan Carter came up for the last 23 games in a neck and neck playoff race. He had the highest wRC+ on the team during that time and was huge in the playoffs. Another rookie (Josh Jung) produced 2.5 WAR in 122 games. Jonah Heim had played in 222 games prior to the 2023 season. He produced 4.1 WAR. Leody Taveras had played in 182 games prior to 2023. Ezequiel Duran had only played in 58 games prior to the 2023 season. It’s a fairly reasonable assumption the Rangers don’t win the WS without these young players. That’s 5 position players in case you were not counting. Baltimore won 101 games. Their 40 man roster had 14 prearb players. Not only were they very good. They are now positioned to be an elite team for several years. Perhaps most important, and I know I am repeating myself but the only absolute prerequisite for the Minnesota Twins to build a contender is to produce major league talent. It is a mathematical certainty that they have to produce 2X the WAR per dollar spent to compete with the top revenue teams. Producing excess talent also allows for key trades like Pablo Lopez. Not only does it provide the trade capital but producing young talent also allows them to sign the extension that resulted. I just don’t think you are paying much attention to the rest of the league or some basic realities of the revenue disparity in the league.

Are you suggesting the best way to build a roster is to acquire players after they have 3 years experience?

The odds of a 38 year old declining are also significant, especially after coming off an up year when he was not good the previous 3 years. This is not like investing in a 30 year old veteran with a great track record. Your stance on young players is well-established here. The problem with your strategy is that all teams but especially teams outside the top 10 in revenue have absolutely no chance of building a contending roster without the majority of the team being in their first 6 years of service. The next most impactful strategy is extending key players. A failure to develop young players for teams anywhere near the Twins in terms of revenue all but guarantees failure or mediocrity at best.

Santana's contribution could be greater than Gallo if he is used primarily against LHP. Gallo was forced into service because of injuries. Santana might be too. I think the biggest risk is that he performs more like 2020-2022 than 2023. I am really indifferent on this move. I see the logic but tend to agree with Nick and others who suggest we would be better off not clogging up the 26-man and giving the ABs to young guys that could provide long-term benefit.

He talked about working on a couple of other pitches in his interview with Seth.

Anyone besides Martin included in the candidates? Prato player some LF. He might be a sleeper.

I don't think the root of their problem is availability although it certainly does not help. The younger segments of potential viewers have grown up playing Soccer, Lacrosse, etc. and being exposed to extreme sports that were not nearly as popular when some of us were kids. The game is slow and just does not appeal to a growing percentage of potential fans. The changes they made will help a little but the league has a multitude of challenges.

I too would take a pitching addition above Soler but the difference makers are Montgomery and Snell and that seems highly unlikely. I also don't think Soler is getting $17M AAV but it could happen.

I am fuzzy on the timeline. Were the financial woes of Bally's / Diamond Sports known when Correa was signed? The fact that the Twins had an additional $30M in BAM money is also impacting the reduction but I have not once seen that acknowledged. Another way to view this is that they pushed the 2023 budget by spending on some 1-year deals because they had extra money for one year.

Right now the bench is Vazquez / Castro / Farmer and Santana with one spot remaining to be determined. This assumes Kirilloff is good to go. I could see Gordon being that last guy if he is not traded soon. He has some positional flexibility and if nothing else they could build his value for a future trade. Give him a couple months and move on if necessary. Soler would look better for the last spot.

The sport is in real trouble if fans don't find coverage of 162 games to be worth $120.

or at least switch Gonzalez for E-Rod. I much prefer the guy with a good approach at the plate.

Ortiz is a great fit as well. I heard a couple different radio shows where they thought he would play 3rd this year and then move to SS when Adames becomes a free agent next year. Obviously, Ortiz is not ranked as high as Lee but he had significantly better numbers than Lee at AA and AAA. Milwaukee might not have seen much difference. Hall is a bit of a wildcard. Top of the rotation stuff if he can control it. Good trade for both sides. The Orioles farm system is deep and they did not give up their top prospects.

I really liked the idea of Duvall until I looked at his splits. His career splits are almost dead even and he has been almost exactly average from both sides of the plate. Last year he only had a .91 wRC+ against LHP but did very well against RHP with a .124 wRC+. I think someone with strong LHP splits is a better fit although Duvall could backup Buxton. My preference would be to roll with Martin given Duvall's splits and fringy defense in center.

You are probably right about only wanting one-year contracts which explains these moves. They will probably have close to $30M in increases next year between Lopez, Paddack, and arbitration increases. However, they have 28.625M coming off next year between Kepler / Farmer / Thielbar and DeSclafani. It seems like they could make it work if they thought he was a difference maker.

Does Soler not having signed yet make you wonder if his price might not be quite as high as expected. He is probably seen as a DH with no defense value, right? Who knows but the fact he has not signed yet makes one wonder. I don't see him as anywhere near a $20M/year guy but I am not the guy writing the checks. Seems possible his market drop to 3/39 but I could be in LF. (see what I did there)

I don't think so. Castro has a career wRC+ of 91 vs both LHP and RHP and only 82 vs last year. His break-out with the bat last year was hitting left handed. (121 wRC+) I hope they can find a way to get Soler.