Major League Ready

Of course someone gives up pick for the vast majority of FAs who get a QO. I thought that went without saying. I should have said don't like to give up and I bet the majority of the picks given up are later than 17.

This is a good point. It's probably a log shot he would ever be an average or even slightly below average defensive 1B. I just cringed when I did as you suggested and imagine Delmon at 1B. He just seemed uncoordinated. I would like to think Arcia is fair amount more athletic. Seriously, I used to swear at the TV when he was in the outfield. God, that was painful to watch.

Let’s call this my wish list Sano surprises us by doing a reasonable job at 3rd to start the season and then gets progressively better by the end of the year and is ML average defensively by the end of the year. Arcia gets a shot out of spring training and rakes. He takes over the DH spot with a 950 OPS and acts as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Maybe teach him 1st base over the next couple years and he or Sano eventually take over for Mauer. Kepler comes up in June. His power surge toward the end of the last year continues and becomes and outstanding 3 hole hitter for the next decade. He also play plus defense. This allows us to trade Hicks who continues to get better for top of the rotation SP prospect. Buxton tears it up at AAA and is here by the end of May. He continues this play at the ML level and becomes ROY. Duffey pitches 200 innings with a sub 3 ERA Someome takes Nolasco off our hands. Twins pay 50% of his salary. AB Walker approach improves / pitch recognition improves substantially and he joins the team late in the year blasting the ball all over the park in a Miguel Cabrera fashion. Kohl Stewart has a huge year and once again becomes a legit front of the rotation prospect. Eddie Rosario’s plate discipline makes a huge leap and he becomes a 300 hitter with a 360 OBP. We trade for Sanchez, he improves his defense and becomes a ROY candidate. Pressley comes back and is lights out in the pen. Perks is the always reliable Perk. We add a big arm to the pen who crushes it Davis style. Other than that I don’t want much at all and this is all going to happen.

What if the deal was Sanchez, Refsnyder, and Clarkin for Dozier? I don't like the idea of losing Dozier but this would be the kind of deal where it becomes pretty hard to resist.

I was trying to be politically correct when I said "we all" but there would be plenty who would complain. Take a look at the MLB top 100. There are several top 20 prospects who were drafted in the teens or later. Buxton is #1, #2 and #3 were picked 18th and 16th respectively. #4 was an international signing and #5 was taken 16th. #6 was 39th. #7 was picked 152nd an#8 was an international signing. That's why most teams don't give up these picks. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=prospects

The majority of picks at 17 are not that great but if this pick happens to turn into Hamels or Halliday we would all crucify the FO.

I am not a big fan of trading Dozier but hey ... if they can get a great return you have to be willing to consider it. That said the Yankees seem much less willing to give up top prospects than they have been in the past. The package you suggest is pretty logical given Dozier would be blocking Refsnyder. The Yankees are going to need to do something that pays immediate dividends if they want to be the favorite to win the East in 2016. This might just work. I wonder if Ramirez would consider a 1 year contract to rebuild value with a guarantee we would not make a qualifying offer? Move Escobar to 2nd for 2016.

I think you are on to something here. Soto would be alright too.

Sorry, I was not clear. I meant a trade that featured Sanchez and Polanco with other chips as needed. I saw something written that the Yankees were concerned about 2B. Sanchez seems to throw out runners at a good clip. Apparently the problem is blocking pitches. I also see Kepler as the 3 hole hitter we need badly. He hopefully allows to move Hicks for value as he is more valuable as a CFer. We get more left-hand hitting and have two guys capable of backing up CF for short stints.

If the Twins were an aging team with a couple year window, it MIGHT make sense to trade 2 years if Lucroy for six years of Kepler. That’s not the case. There is some pretty biased optimism in terms of the Twins readiness to contend. If contend means compete for a wildcard they likely are ready next year with an upgrade at Catcher and the bullpen. If contend means a division title and winning playoff series they still have a ways to go. Nolasco is a huge question mark. Hughes is a big question mark and Santana has always been inconsistent and therefore a question mark. Duffey seems pretty likely to succeed in a starting role but he has a ways to go to be “proven”. Will Berrios come into the league and dominate from the time he arrives? Will Hicks continue to improve? Will Rosario learn some plate discipline? If not, he is never going to be above average. When will Buxton start to hit ML pitching? That’s not the whole list but you get the idea. Giving up 6 years of Kepler (and probably more) for 2 years of Lucroy at this point is short-sighted. How much better off will be if Lucroy is here instead of Kepler and whomever they get as a catcher vs trading Kepler for Lucroy. What we know for sure is that we won’t have Kepler (entering his 3rd year) for 2018-21 when this team will have matured and hopefully a real contender ala Kansas City. This is the kind of move that perpetuates mediocrity. Polanco is rated higher on the boards I checked. This seems like a good trade for both teams. I don’t know if it would fly but I would much rather trade Polanco for Sanchez and have the position covered for the next 6 years.

Teixeira would be a good fit in front or behind Sano in the batting order. So, what factors should we look at when considering a trade for Gibson and a “decent prospect? • Teixeira had a war of 2.9 war last but it was 1.1 in 2014 and replacement level in 2013. • Gibson’s WAR was 2.5 last year 2.3 in 2014 and replacement level his first (partial) year in 2013. • Gibson is heading into his prime. Teixiera is heading into his age 36 season. • Which one would more likely to be able to make a qualifying offer at the end of their contract and get a draft pick as compensation? • Would this decent prospect be the type likely to make in to the ML level? Are we talking about a guy that becomes a cost controller starting player with 6 cost controller years? • Is it a good idea to wrap up $46M between Mauer and Teixeira. Could the money be spent better elsewhere? • Mauer is 2 ½ years younger. He could bounce back this year like Teixeira last or Teixeira could fall back to 2014 or even 2013 production. The iffy questions are listed above. The reasons no GM would even consider this trade would be. • We could keep Gibson for 2 more seasons and get a much better return than 1 year of Teixeira. • 4 years of a middle of a good starting pitcher in his prime vs 1 year of an aging player with one good year in the last 3 years. • Even if Teixeira is as good as he was last year and Gibson does not improve during his prime years which would go against the likely trend for both players, 1 year of Gibson is 2.9 WAR vs a projected cumulative WAR of 10 for Gibson. This would be a reasonably good move if the league were to end after the 2016 season. It is a horrible idea if considered beyond next year and that’s without even considering if the “decent” prospect becomes a “decent ML player.

I hope they come up with a better option than Ramos.

Why would you be shocked? McCann is signed for 3 more years plus a vesting option in 2014. They could trade him and keep McCann but that would be more "shocking" given we are talking about the Yankees.

Wow. Talk about altering reality to fit your preferred narrative. Over the 9 year period before KC turned around they lost 863 games (95.88 losses/season) They got a bunch of high draft picks and kept them until they felt they were ready to contend. Cueto had little to do with them getting to the WS this year and of course Shields is long gone. The trade with far more significant impact was the one where they sent their best player to Milwaukee and got Cain, Escobar, and Jake Odorizzi. Escobar was somewhat established but he had less than 200 ML games, Cain had 43 games, and Odorizzi was in the minors. http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2015/10/24/royals-success-began-with-2010-trade-of-greinke-to-milwaukee.html They made no big dollar free agent acquisitions you insist are necessary. As a matter of fact they made the kind of FA acquisitions that most people complain about here with perhaps the exception of Morales. Yes, they did get to the WS last year and they probably don’t get the wildcard w/o Shields. However, the net was that they traded Meyers and Odorizzi for a one game playoff. Would you trade Buxton and Gonsalves if you knew the result would be a one game playoff in a single year? I seriously doubt there is a GM in the league that trade away Meyers and Odorizzi for one wildcard. Maybe back when it meant a series but now that it means a one game playoff that is a poor result. We can also look at the Mets. The most significant trade they made was also to trade away Dickey for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard and Wuilmer Becerra. Most of their roster was developed from within and they did a good job on international players. No, they were not the multi million dollar international signings either. Flores was $750K but the rest were 100K or less. One somewhat substantial FA in Granderson 4/60M. Most of their roster was developed from within. They made no trades where they gave up notable prospects for established players.

If this were true, why would you ever send a prospect to AAA

Mike, I was generalizing. In other words, several posts went down this path and I was basically saying that there is a common trend to criticize something that no other similar team is doing and make it sound like this is unique to the Twins. Sorry if it seemed like this was targeted only at your comment. A few weeks ago the same thing came up when Dave said the Twins should have signed an Ace instead of three guys. I asked at that time what teams with similar or less revenue had done this. Dave listed teams but no players which is not specific at all. So, I went so far as to posted a listed all of the FAs form the last 10 years that could possibly be considered an Ace and asked Dave to tell which players specifically we Ace type pitchers. No response. Dave an everyone who insisted that the Twins should do this could not come up wit single (specific) example and here we are again. I went back and dug this up from a previous thread. Here are the FAs since 2007. All of them to teams with more and in most cases much more revenue than the twins. 2015 Sherzer ………. Nationals Lester ………… Cubs Does Lester qualify as an ace?He was very good in 2014 but 2012-2013 he rated 29th in WAR. Shields ………. Padres---- Is Shields an ace.Shields got 4/74 and Santana was the next highest paid FA pitcher in 2015. 2014 Tanaka ………. Yankees Garza was the 2nd highest paid SP in 2014.$1M more than Nolasco and $2M more than Jimenez.Pretty hard to fault what they did in 2014 when you actually look at the facts. 2013 Grienke …….. Dodgers Sanchez ……. Tigers (resigned with current team so no pertinent to this discussion)I also don’t know that he would have been considered an ace at the time of the signing.E Edwin Jackson was the next highest paid FA pitcher in 2013 2012 CJ Wilson …….Angels 5/77M Darvish ……….Rangers 6/60M Buehrle ………Marlins 4/58M There was obviously some uncertainty about Darvish in the market I would not think anyone considered Buehrle an ace, especially at 36 forward. 2011 Cliff Lee ……..Rangers 5/120M The next highest paid SP in 2011 was actually a relief pitcher (Soriano (35M) 2010 Lackey ……..Angels 5/82.5 Randy Wolfe was the next highest paid SP at 29.75M 2009 Sabathia …….Yankees Burnett ……....Yankees 2008 Pettite ………Yankees 1yr 16M.The highest paid SP was actually Silva’s deal with the Mariners @ 4/48M 2007 Zito …………..Giants 7/126 Matsuzaka ..... Boston 6/52

You were not the only one to make these comments. It would be an extreme rarity that any team of equivalent or lesser financial position to sign an elite FA starting pitcher for the kind of money Grienke or Price will get. Therefore, it would be logical to conclude all of the other teams with equal or less revenue have determined that it is not a good idea or simply not viable. It is also often said here that the Twins COULD sign this type of player if they were willing to pony up whatever it takes to get this type of player to come here. To say it is not the Twins way or the Twins are cheap or whatever other preface is put on this topic is a faulty premise. It is not the way of any team with equal or lesser revenue which is a very different premise. Singling out the Twins suggest their reluctance to do this is unique. The point is that you and others want to criticize the organization for a practice consistent with all of the organizations in the same financial position and some of greater financial capability. The point is … Do none of the small or mid-market teams understand the risk reward equation, value proposition are whatever description you prefer? I think it is a little more likely that our bias as fans causes us ignore the fact that this just is not done by mid or small market teams.

Mike, I keep seeing “but they” won’t do it or it’s not the “Twins Way” but when has any team with the Twins revenue or less every signed an elite FA starting pitcher the likes of Price or Grienke to a 5+ year $100M+ contract. I suppose it might have happened once but can anyone come up with 2 examples? Is it really the Twins or is it every team with equal or less revenue? I use the Cardinals as the exampe of a really well run MLB franchise. They have a fair amount more revenue than the Twins. Yet, when have they signed a FA in this mold that was not someone they were resigning?

Good point!

In a word, no. If the payroll variable was removed there would be a closer correlation but there are still a lot of other factors, including injury and luck. It is just not nearly this simple to judge a job of this nature or most leadership positions for that matter. In your defense, you did say that if there was a single measure which is a lot different than saying the single measure should be world-series appearances. The Dodgers might very well being the world series this year or perhaps win. They are paying in the neighbor of $80M for players that don’t play for them. That is not good asset management.

You say this with such conviction. The Minnesota Twins organization is a business. I could come up with a half dozen things would without question be more important to judging a GM than World Series Appearances. 1. Leadership 2. Financial Performance 3. Managing / Elevating the Twins Brand 4. Risk Mitigation 5. Asset Management – Primarily related to minor league development given the Twins revenue relative to the top markets. 6. Developing methodologies that provide competitive advantage (Saber Metrics / Scouting, etc)T The exact six measures are debatable but this is a business and the people who run them measure success differently than fans.

2B is a likely a target position for the Yankees to upgrade so Polanco seems like a good fit. Will the Yankees want a ML ready player or someone who will be ready sooner is the question. This just seems like a really good player to target given McCann is signed through 2018 with a vesting option for 2019. Polanco and Jake Reed? That's a big YES for me.

Gary Sanchez seems like a realistic possibility McCann is signed through 2018 with a vesting option in 2019. Anyone care to guess what it would take to get him?

Dave, I am always rooting for the break-out candidates so I am really happy to see Hicks finally put it together. He is great right-handed and would be a candidate to hit in front of or behind Sano against LH pitching. Now I am rooting for Rosario. I got a man crush on him when I watched the Championship game of the Arizona Fall League. He will need to develop a lot more discipline but that's what I meant by him stepping up. His OBP is not adequate to hit 2nd or 3rd and pitchers are going to abuse him if he does not make them throw over the plate. He drives me a little crazy right now. Maybe I am too optimistic but I think he could become a 3 hole hitter once he learns to be more selective. BTW ... I also did not include him because I think there is a good chance he gets traded at some point. He is just too valuable as a CFer. Mauer is going anywhere so there is not a spot open for Kepler. Plus, it just makes no sense to me to put a guy with Kepler's athleticism at 1B. The reports say he can actually play a passable CF. Why would you put him at 1B if this is true?

How good would a Sano/Davis combo look in the 3&4 or 4&5 slots. Then, we just need Kepler or perhaps Rosario to step-up and take over the 3 hole. As long as we are dreaming. How about if Arcia makes a comeback? Buxton / Rosario / Kepler / Sano / Davis / Dozier / Arcia / Mauer / Escobar