Major League Ready

IDK ... Larnach looks just as capable of being the ROY as Kirilloff. Those two will give us something to watch the rest of the way. Could not agree more about Lewis. Man, does that suck. It would be ideal to deal Simmons at the deadline and bring him up. I guess giving Gordon a shot will at least be interesting. We can all hope he steps up with the opportunity. The biggest leap towards a retool vs a rebuild would be if a couple pitching prospects were to come up an impress. Move Shoemaker and Happ for whatever you can get and give those spots to Duran / Winder / Ober and Balzovic if he is ready.

What about Pineda? I would think he would bring a decent return, especially this year when teams are running out of pitching. The guy we need to get it together is Robles. There is a past version of him that would bring back a decent prospect. Same is true of Colome. I am with you in the sense of I don't care if we win a few more games. The focus now is giving the young guys a shot as well as maximizing the return between now and the deadline. I would add that watching all the new guys will be more fun to watch then the current product.

Samardzija, Semien and Oakland in general are good examples of successful asset management. How have they managed to field such good teams while being at such a revenue disadvantage? Among their top current starters, Bassit was acquired by trading an established SP (Samardzija). Manea was traded for a rental veteran position player (Zobrist) Cole Irvin was purchased for cash. Their top 2 RPs are free agents at a combined cost of $6.55M and Burch was purchased for cash. Among their top position players, Laureano (16th round pick) was acquired by trading a relative low level prospect. Canha was acquired for a Milb pitcher that never made it to the MLN level. Olsen and Murphy we picked 47th and 83rd by Oakland in the draft. Kind of sounds like the Twins strategy. Brown was a 19th round pick. Point being Oakland has a better record over the past 20 years than many teams with far more purchasing power because they find value. They have also been willing to trade away established players to sustain success. Tampa has done the same thing. It would be great if we could employ some of these tactics with the same success. The plus side for us is we also have the benefit of a revenue advantage over Tampa and Oakland that provides additional opportunities. We can afford Josh Donaldson type deal along with other supporting free agents like Pineada / Haap / Ramos / Schoop / Cron, etc. The better job we do finding these values, the more budget available for FAs and extending players.

Why is it unfortunate? He has looked quite good in CF. Seems like a huge positive. A RH hitting 4th outfielder that can cover CF would be a great asset especially given we are going to have LH hitting corner outfielders. The fact that he can also play the IF is nothing but a plus. If he can continue to produce at an above average wRC+ he is going to be a great utility player hopefully for the next few years.

While I agree a team would likely want to keep Berios, It does not matter whether they keep him or not in terms of the validity of Dodechedron’s argument. He/she has stipulated that Berrios has significant value as a rental next year. Let’s call that value X. He/she has also suggested that the Twins would get no more for Berrios this year than the team trading for him would get the following year. In other words, they would expect to recoup their entire investment next year. This position suggests a team is willing to pay nothing for Berrios this year but he has significant value next year. If I am only willing to pay you the price I can get for something when I resell it a year later, I am essentially willing to pay you nothing for the use of that something for a year. If Berrios is worth X as a 2 month rental, why wouldn’t someone be willing to pay 2X for this year and next especially when they hold the option to recoup X if they are not in contention?

It’s exactly what you are saying regardless of your refusal to acknowledge some very simple logic. If the conditions you state are correct, another team would get a good return for him next year. Let’s call those prospects Smith and Jones. Therefore, two months next year returns Smith and Jones. However, based on your position, no team would give more for Smith and Jones for an extra year of control. Therefore, the rights to Berrios are worth nothing this year but next year 2 months of Berrios are worth Smith and Jones. Do you get it now? Arguing that and extra year of control is worth nothing is blatant head in the sand logic. Everyone knows an extra year of control has value but here you are telling me I am stupid because I just don’t get it.

You are asking us to believe 1 1/2 years of Berrios is worth less than a half year. Please send that question in to any of the national writers who hosts chats. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. This topic is often discussed on various BB talk shows. It is common knowledge that extra years of control translate to additional trade value. Teams have become far less willing to pay big for rentals. We will just have to agree to disagree. One last thought ... If another teams does not see value in an extra year of Berrios, why should we? You are suggesting we can get by without him but another team won't see value in having him next year as well as for a playoff run this year..

Good point with Sherzer and Gausman. It would definitely cut into the market for Berrios If they are both available, Gausman is also an example of how you replace Berrios. He was very affordable when signed.

All true Doc but we do a lot of speculation here that is far more unfounded than believing a player is looking for a giant payday. Every off season we see reports of players looking for 50% more than they end up signing for. Free agency is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow so it's a very small leap to conclude Berrios believes he is worth "ace" money. It's also not a big leap to assume they have tried to extend him. If the FO believed the amount he is asking for was in the best interest of the team, they would have signed him. The question is basically the return vs his value in 2022. Most here feel we are going to be a contender next year. Based on what? This core supplemented by very good FA signings in 2019 was not even a true contender when they all pretty much had career years. The same extreme optimism resonated here for a few years before they finally got good in 2019. Every year the sentiment was trade away our prospects because we had the core to contend. This team is just not that good and the only way it's going to be a contender is if the SP prospects provide contending pitching. I don't believe that's going to happen in 2022. IF and it's a big IF, the players coming back make sense, I take that capital that hopefully does for us what trading Sale did for Chicago. Of course, there are other examples of teams using this kind of trade to retool in a relatively short period of time. Then, if we can establish a couple prospects in the rotation, take the money from Happ, Pineda, and Berrios and g get a quality free Agent SP that will be part of the solution beyond 2022. If you believe this horrible team is a going to be a true contender next year than it makes more sense to hold onto Berrios. I just don't believe we are a true contender. Of course, that opinion could change if Duran and Balzovic burst on the seen in a big way and a number of position players bounce back but that seems like a real long-shot.

It sounds like you are suggesting Berrios would have higher trade value next year as a 1/2 year rental as compared to this year with a year and a half of control. Care to elaborate or provide examples? Sounds to me like you are talking yourself into what you want to believe because the premise of him bringing back more as a rental makes absolutely no sense.

Who replaced Snell and Morton in Tampa? Who replaced Sale in Chicago? There are many other examples of teams parting with very good players to acquire assets that were important for several years. There is a blind insistence among some fans that we can just "lock up" a player. It's not nearly that easy. It would appear Berrios is insistent upon testing his market in free agency. The only way we sign him now is a massive overpay and that just simply incompetent management.

I was critical of Sano when it was unpopular to be critical of him. However, I think you are being overly negative. His career wRC+ is 118 which is about 10 points above league average so that's not exactly poor. He had a wRC+ of 125 in 2017 and 137 in 2015. In 2016 he was leauge average. His one truly "poor" year was 2018 when he struggled to a wRC+ of 83. This year he had a poor April and a good month of May. History does not suggest he will have a poor overall season. As for his return, a guy who can really carry a team the way he can could have significant value at the deadline. His contract terms are reasonable enough that a large market team would consider the 2022 salary and option in 23 ta plus. For those who say his value does not matter, I disagree completely. Cashing in on assets is how you continue to be good. There are a number of teams that have demonstrated this the last decade. This singular focus on the present is a good way to be bad perpetually.

You might not have noticed I modified the scenario to what percentage of games were won by the team over a large sample size so I am advocating using win/loss in a different context and with consideration to a myriad of other stats. Individual Win / Loss has limited value but it's not a completely useless stat if properly positioned and utilized in concert with other stats. I am not sure where you were going with the comment regarding what the thread is about. This tangent has little to do with building a pitching pipeline. My observation is that many here focus on block buster trades and huge free agent signings. However, when you look at playoff teams and specifically mid market or lower revenue teams, pitching and the team construction in general are products of savvy trades for guys who have not yet been established. In some cases that profile is players that have minimal MLB experience and sometimes its trading for Tatis Jr when he is 19. It’s the Whitesox trading away sale and Eaton or the Royals trading Grienke. The same kind of focus on the highest profile players extends to drafting both here and internationally. Some here assume it’s essential to take pitchers in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Where is the supporting data? Degrom was a 9th rounder and there countless examples like him. The same type of assumption exists with international signees. Several people have made the same assumption that the best strategy is signing the huge bonus guys. Where is the data to support this theory? I have looked back at several international drafts and the #1.5M guys have actually become great players more often than the $3M guys. Of course, this is a gross generalization but the numbers suggest signing two or three well regarded prospects instead of the highest profile ($2.5-$4M) international prospects is the best strategy. I thought did a nice job of profiling Cleveland’s approach and success. We are going to find out over the next couple of years if the new regime has found and developed picks in later rounds or acquired them by trading rentals that are more than back of the rotation guys.

It tells you very little by itself but that's now how analysis is done. You want to insist on this point so you are conviently ignoring all else.

I would put virtually no weight given this small sample size. However, I would be interested in what percentage of games started were won by the players team over the previous 2-3 years. Tells me something about consistency and if a player is able to compete when they don't have their best stuff. Of course, I would still want all the other stats.

Could end up being one heck of a trade for a rental. It sure would be great if he dominates and we see him here at or before the deadline.

I agree they probably won't produce 3 WAR. The difference in our positions is that I don't see that extra 1 or 2 WAR being at all significant in terms of the likelihood of the 2022 team contending. This team just does not have the talent to be a serious contender. I don't see them competing until some of the pitching prospects step up. I agree with you that's not going to happen overnight. The old regime was never willing to face reality like Chicago did when they traded Sale and Eaton. The offer has to be good but let's be realistic in that Berrios is not an ace. We also don't have to trade 7 or 8 players. However, we should take what we can get for the rentals and use the roster spot to audition prospects. Pineda could bring back a decent piece. Robles has been looking like he could really get it together between now and the deadline. If so, he could bring back a nice player too. Then, there is Rogers who could also be a great trade asset if he gets consistent. I guess we have quite a few guys that fit that description.

That's what people said about Tampa trading Snell and they also lost Morton to free agency. The key IMO is establishing a couple prospects this year. Dobnak could be one of them but I am thinking more of Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Winder / Sands and Ober. I would dump Albers right now and move Winder to AAA with Canterino filing his spot a AA and Valimont filing Canterino's spot a A+. If we establish two prearb players, we can then use the funds saved by the departure of Berrios / Pineda and Haap to sign a front of the rotation FA. It would be really great if Gordon's performance continues. That would allow us to replace Simmons and add another $10M available for free agents. Gordon's sample size is small but wow would that be a bonus if he lived up to something close to expectations given his draft position.

This was the theme for several years prior to 2019 and we just never had the depth of talent necessary to seriously content. Then, it it finally looked like all of those young players were going to be the great players we hoped they would be. Unfortunately, 2019 looks like the outlier at this point. It's time to accept this like Chicago did when they traded Sale and Eaton. Unless they go on a major winning streak right now, the remainder of this year will provide two opportunities. Trading of short-term assets and auditioning a myriad of prospects, especially pitchers. Gordon is earning a short right now too. (Robles / Happ / Pineda are obvious and could bring decent returns, especially Pineda and Robles. If Buxton continues to play at relatively the same level he could bring the type of haul that would significantly impact the future. I guess the same is true of Berrios if he gets more consistent between now and the deadline. In 2022, I would rather watch Balazovic / Duran / Canterino / Winder / Kirilloff / Larnach / Gordon and at some point Lewis than watch a 500 or even a 87 win team with little chance of going anywhere in the playoffs. Add a good haul from moving a number for players this year over the course of 2022-24 and we could finally have a legit contender. This team is not it. I would add that 2022 could look pretty good if we establish two starters this year. MOving the other payroll would afford the opportunity to add a good FA starting pitcher to the mix. Maeda / Free Agent / Duran / Balazovic and one of Winder / Ober / Sands could be a pretty darn good rotation. Add Kirilloff, Larnach, and perhaps Gordon. We would just need to resolve center field. Maybe that's where Lewis ends up.

I am not so sure we have a right to an opinion here. The players should have the right to determine if it's necessary to show respect for each other. In the history of the game, no other player has ever swung at a 3-0 pitch when up by 10 or more runs. Heard this on MLB radio. So, it seems quite clear players feel this is disrespectful and piling on. They should have the right in my opinion to expect a certain amount of respect for other players / teams and the game. This was a rookie who decided he was above this expectation and even above following his managers instructions. The Twins should not have put someone on the mound that could not perform in a reasonable manner but Mercedes should have followed his manager's direction. He should have also respected the cultural norms players have adopted. Every society, group, etc has unwritten rules that promote civility in some form. It's hardly a bad thing. Of course, there are always those who don't feel the need to follow rules. What I find really sad is that respect for the game and each other is considered old school and out of date thinking.

Have you paid any to the percentage of "high profile" free agent RPs that have been somewhere between very mediocre and absolutely terrible? If only they had kept Clippard and Romo like so many here suggested or signed Rosenthal and/or Yates. Even Hendricks has a WAR of zero right now. So, let's not pretend anyone FO is going to have consistent success with BPs. It's bitching for the sake of bitching.

Don't see Canterino on St. Paul or Wichita. What's the story with him?

I was critical of Sano when it was unpopular to criticize him. Having said this, Sano’s career wRC+ is above average for 1B even though that position has the highest wRC+ in the league. Also, he was hurt in 2019 and only played 105 games so his season was great and portraying as a hot streak is unfair. He had a down year last season but there were a lot of guys that played far below their normal levels last year. He still had a wRC+ of 99 in a down year and his wRC+ in the past two seasons combined is 121. I would have zero problem with trading Sano. As a matter of fact, I think that might be an ideal scenario. I just don’t agree with flushing him because he has struggled so far this season. That's poor asset management. He has the ability to be a beast or bring a good return if he rebounds. Let’s just wait it out a little.

Why would they have to get rid of somebody? Sano is not a free agent in 2024 and Polanco 2025. The Twins can sit on them until the off-season and hope their value rebounds. If its time for Kirilloff, that's no problem he is going to be in LF. If you want to keep Garlick around, trade Cave.

No doubt there are a lot of 1st round guys that are mediocre or don't even make the show (Mark Appel). However, some of these picks like Gordon and Jay were head scratchers. Cavaco seemed optimistic as well. I hope he finds the things they projected but he seemed like a prayer. Most teams wiff a lot. Pittsburgh has had lots of high draft picks although there problem might be development. KC sucked for years and did not really amass that many really good first rounders. There biggest contribution to their WS team was trading away Greinke for Cane and Escobar and singing Perez in the International draft. Houston's drafts were fantastic for a few years and the result is history. It's a little early to judge Detroit's last few years but their picks look quite good at the moment. I guess what I am saying it's damn hard but it sure would be nice to string together some great picks.