clone52

No, I'm arguing that signing a guy like Cueto to that kind of deal isn't worth the risk when you have some high end prospects coming up in the system. Not to mention that the first couple of years of that contract would include the time when the young Twins are taking their lumps. Does a guy like Cueto put the Twins over the top when guys like Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, May, Park, etc are going through their Freshman and Sophmore slumps? Now in 2018 if the young guys have developed and the twins need an Ace to pull it altogether, I'd be in favor of big money deal to bring in an Ace. Like what the Royals did last year. Their young players had several years in the majors to develop and the Royals went all in.

Well, it would be at least 6 years. Not to mention that Cueto looked very mediocre in the American League last season. We might have been paying double the yearly cost and 2 extra years for the production of Ervin Santana.

At least quote my entire post. The argument that May is a Great reliever is only half the argument. I also pointed out that the evidence shows Milone is at least as good a starter as May is and maybe better. Why would you essentially swap equal starters in the rotation AND make your bullpen worse in the process? The only argument for May in the rotation is the hope that he could turn out to be better than he has shown so far as a starter.

And how many people are complaining about the contracts of Mauer, Nolasco, Hughes and Santana right now? Thats why we're having this debate right now. I can't say you're wrong though. Maybe spending $20-25/year over 6 or 7 years for a "ace" who will be washed up 3 or 4 years into the contract would be a good move for the Twins.

First off, Cueto signed a 6 year contract this year, so the Twins weren't going to sign him for 4 or 'even' five years. He would be on the books through at least 2021. Secondly, Sano and Buxton are arbitration eligible in 2019. Rosario is eligible in 2018.. If they progress as we hope (Sano and Buxton all starts and Rosario a solid LF), those 3 combined through arbitration could easily be commanding $30 million in 2020 and $40 million in 2021. If Park is a decent DH, you're looking at $35 million and $50 million in those 2 years. Add on Cueto (or someone like that) and you'd have $55 million tied up in 5 players in 2020 and $70 million tied up in 5 players in 2021.

I'm not sure they are going to contend this year, but if they do, i think they are better off with May in the bullpen. Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Berrios, Milone and Duffey give the Twins a decent rotation. I don't see that May is a signifigant upgrade to any of them. He's not going to displace Santana, Hughes or Gibson for sure. Berrios is going to get his shot as either to start the season or when they first injury happens. That means May is only either going to beat out Milone or Duffey. Who is he better than? May has shown flashes of brilliance starting, but is exceptionally inconsistant. In 2015, Milone was a better starter than May. He did have a lower strikeout rate, but a better ERA. Duffey has shown far more than May as a starter. On the other side of it, May has shown he can be a GREAT reliever. None of those 6 starters I mention seems like they would be a good reliever. Now if you didn't have Santana and Hughes, then yes, I'd put May in the rotation. However, given the roster as it is, its pretty obvious that May should be in the bullpen.

I think May could be a good start. I know May is a Great reliever. I'm good with him in the bullpen for now.

And in 2020 and 2021 you'd have a washed up Johnny Cueto on the books. Right when you are signing those guys. Kind of my point.

Except that the Twins hopefully will need that money for Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, maybe Polanco, Trevor May, Kohl Stewart, Max Kepler, etc.

Yeah, Sano is probably more likely to handle 3B than OF, but he's pretty athletic, so I think he'll be alright in the OF. As others have said, the Twins could have traded Plouffe for pennies on the dollar this winter and given Sano the 3B job. As for the Backup plan if Sano bombs in RF, just trade Plouffe for pennies on the dollar this summer. Its not like you are going to get much less for Plouffe if you trade him mid-season. Plus, by keeping him to start the season, you have the opportunity that Sano is at least an average outfielder and you're good to go at 3B and RF.

Nolasco will end shortly. Which is why I think it wasn't a bad risk to take. Nobody was really expecting last year to happen, so that 4 year contract for Nolasco was planned to be coming off the books just as all the young guns are coming on board. Santana and Hughes are reasonably priced guys who can hopefully fill out the rotation. Paying double or triple the price doesn't guarantee success either. Cueto took a significant step back after moving to the AL last season.

A long term deal for Cueto would have been assinine for the Twins. Sure, maybe get a couple of great years out of him, then have him as a $21m anchor as he declines in his mid-thirties. Right at the time the Twins would probably be wanting to give contracts to Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Stewart.

Because if Sano can't cut it at 3B, the Twins have NO depth at the position.

Rosario and Sano played.

The only prospects you are evaulating are Kepler and ABW. You have plenty of time to evaulate them. Give them some ABs against good pitchers and give Quentin the garbage ABs. The truth is, it makes more sense to let Kepler and ABW play daily in AAA than be bench guys who play twice a week in the majors. If Kepler or ABW do move up the majors, you need someone to play OF in AAA. Why not try Quentin. Also, for all we know they want 2 AA OFs and will choose 2 out of Quentin, Sweeney and Benson. Competition for every roster spot in the organization is a good thing.

Except this dumpster dive is for a AAA outfielder. Not for anyone they'll actually plan to make the major league roster.

Organizational Depth only. Our projected backup outfielders are Danny Santana and Oswaldo Arcia. Both could flop. If they do flop, those spots probably get filled by Kepler and Mastroianni. That leaves the AAA OF as ABW, Joe Benson and Ryan Sweeney with no backups. Is Quentin a worse option in AAA than Joe Benson or Ryan Sweeney? The Twins also don't have any high end prospects in AA. Its a low risk signing. Maybe he lights it up in spring training and someone wants to make a trade for him. Who knows.

In what world is Joe Benson a "known commodity"? Seems like he has more question marks than Sweeney.

You could be right that Ryan dropped the ball. Or maybe Yankees scouts valued Cessa and Green more than the general consensus. Maybe Ryan offerred Burdi and Reed and the Yankees said no. Teams don't look at mlb.com rankings when deciding who to trade. They look at their own scouting/ratings.

Your math is off. Kemp is owed 87 million over the next 4 years. Nolasco is owed 25 million. San Diego would have to throw in $22 million to make it a 4/40 contract. Plus, the Twins don't need a a $10 million outfielder. Assuming they keep Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Walker, they probably aren't in the market for an outfielder like Kemp. He'd just be tying up $10-15 million in roster money. He might be useful in 2016 if Buxton isn't ready to go. However, with Sano, Buxton and Rosario, the OF is kind of set. If Sano moves to 3B in 2017, they still have Buxton, Rosario, Kepler and Adam Brett-Walker as possibilities. Even if they need another OF, could they spend the $10-15 million on another guy? At this point, they're halfway through Nolasco's contract. They're really only eating 2 more years of his contract. At this point, a 2/24 contract is not some albatross weighing down the entire team. If they needed an OF, then yeah, trade him for Kemp. If they really think they need another SP, trade him for James Shields. However, I don't think they need another OF or SP, so I think both of those are bad moves. If there was a decent C out there with a bad contract, they could make that trade. If there were a good reliever with a bad contract, they could make that move. Here are some possible options I wouldn't be opposed to. 1. Keep Nolasco and eat the cost. Maybe he recovers and has some value as a starter or reliever. 2. Trade him for Ryan Howard. Same cost, but only stuck with Howard for 1 year. Put Howard on the bench as a power hitting pinch hitter. Plus, much more likely to be able to trade Howard at the deadline for something (but would probably have to pay his salary either way). 3. Trade him to the Dodgers for Andre Ethier. Saves the Dodgers some money. Ethier is only under contract through 2017. It'd be like signing him for $5 million/year. 4. Trade him to the Padres for Melvin Upton. Padres save a little money and Upton is only signed through 2017. Basically this would be like signing Melvin Upton for $4 million a year to be a 4th OF with some upside. 5. Trade him to the Phillies for Matt Harrison and see if Harrison recovers from his injuries. Saves the Phillies $2 million, so they'd probably do it. If I were the Twins, I'd pay $2 million to roll the dice with someone not named Ricky Nolasco. 6. Trade him to the Braves for Nick Swisher.

How on earth does whatever Plouffe was doing at age 25 have an impact on a debate over whether Plouffe or Castro is a better player now?

Interesting article. However, they don't consider that maybe the #4 and #5 guys come up with more runners on than the #3 guy because the old school says bat your best hitter #3. Here is what I would do if I were the Twins. It won't happen, but I think it should. Buxton, CF Dozier, 2B Park, DH Sano, RF Mauer, 1B Plouffe, 3B Rosario, LF Escobar, SS Suzuki, C The reason I'd do this is that it sounds like the biggest adjustment Park will need to make is seeing more breaking balls. Why not bat him in front of Sano, where he will see the most possible fastballs. Plus, this puts Mauer behind Sano, where he is likely to see runners on. He was a much better hitter with runners on than bases empty. There is no way they start Park in the 3 spot, though. According to that article, the lineup should be this. Joe Mauer, 1B Brian Dozier, 2B Trevor Plouffe, 3B Miguel Sano, RF Eduardo Escobar, SS Eddie Rosario, LF Park, DH Buxton, CF Suzuki, C If Buxton breaks out, swamp him and Mauer or something like that.

I'm sure they're looking at trading Plouffe. Ploufee+Hicks+prospects is way overpaying, though. In my opinion, Plouffe and LuCroy are pretty similar assets. Both have 2 years left of team control. You know what you are getting with Plouffe. He's been healthy and pretty steady. Decent bat, above average 3B defense. LuCroy gets bonus points for being at a key position. However, he was injured. If I'm trading for a Catcher, I'd much rather go after Derek Norris, even though it would cost more. I guess if I'm looking at Sano, I'm looking to the future. Is he going to end up a 3B or 1B full time. If they really think he's going to be a full time 3B, then you trade Plouffe and put Sano at 3B for the next 6 years. However, if you're not sure if Sano is really a 3B and you're really pencilling him in as a 1B replacement for Mauer, then you're just looking for a spot to put Sano for 2-3 years until Mauer is ready to move on. Lets say you're the GM and really believe that Sano's end game is 1B after Mauer is done. You need a spot to put Sano for the next couple of years. Lets be honest, too. Sano was dinged up a bit this year. Its likely that next year, even if Sano is your every day 3B, he's not going to play 150 games at 3B. He's still going to get some time at DH and if you're grooming him to take over at 1B, you might give him some games at 1B as well. Probably best case scenario, Sano plays 120 games at 3B and more likely closer to 100. That means you've got to fill 40-60 games at 3B with a backup, probably Eduardo Nunez. However, if you keep Plouffe and Sano can play a passable LF, he maybe gets 80 games in LF and the rest at DH or 1B/3B. When he's not playing LF, the depth the Twins have in the outfield fills that spot much better than they would filling 3B.

Are you sure the intradivision tiebreaker is not only used if the tied teams are in the same division? Doesn't make much sense to use that as a tie breaker for teams in different divisions.

Even if that gets teh Twins into the playoffs this year?