clone52
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Everything posted by clone52
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Fair enough. If Arcia puts in the work in spring training and shows some maturity, I have no problem with that. Molitor did just say he doesn't expect Sano to play 3B. Expectations can change in a week or a month or 3 months from now.
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I would have no problem with Sano at 3B full time and Arcia or someone else in RF. We are are talking about days off for Plouffe, so we are talking about Arcia in RF or Nunez at 3B.
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I wouldn't have a problem with that either, if Arcia is actually maturing and putting the work in.
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They would blink an eye. If he said that was the plan, they would be questioning Molitor on why they aren't having him take reps at 3B in spring training if they are planning for him to play there. There is nothing stopping them now from saying in April that Sano is getting more comfortable in RF so we are having him take some reps at 3B so he can fill in as necessary.
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Is Arcia a starting-caliber player? His defensive WAR was as bad as his offensive WAR was good in 2014. He was basically a replacement level player.
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And his defense gave up as much as his offense provided.
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Fair enough on the process. I don't really have an issue with the timing. Look, if you are coaching Sano this spring, there are 2 options. 1. Have him concentrate on RF only and not work on 3B at all. 2. Have him mostly work on RF, but have him also work out at 3B to keep sharp there. Whatever their process was, they decided to go with Option 1. Since they decided on that, no reason to try and keep it secret. If Molitor had not answered the question or tried to say all the options are open, then reporters noticed that Sano wasn't taking reps at 3B, they just would have answered more questions.
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What the heck has Arcia done to prove he deserves a shot like that? Play awful, awful defense in RF. Just put on a homerun show during batting practice when coaches want him to work on his flaws? Whine and play like crap when he gets sent down to AAA? There is very little evidence that Arcia is going to get it together. I've already said that if he does get it together, your idea of Arcia in RF and Sano to 3B when Plouffe sits makes a lot of sense. However, Arcia is going to have to prove he's matured before he's given any benefit of the doubt.
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I'm talking best case scenario. Other people want to do that, so why can't I?
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Its the career OPS+ of 89 for Nunez.
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I'm bouncing between 2 different scenarios. If they ever trade Plouffe, I'm 100% on board with Sano to 3B. No doubt about it. If we're talking about 20-25 games at 3B when Plouffe sits, then I'm 90% on board with not putting Sano there and letting him stick with RF.
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Thats right. They have given him a huge distraction moving him to RF. No need to pile more onto it especially when there isn't an obvious advantage to using Sano at 3B when Plouffe rests. If you're looking at WAR, you are actually better off playing Nunez at 3B than 2014 Arcia in RF.
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I can see your point. If Molitor had come out and said that Sano would get some spot starts at 3B I wouldn't have had a problem with it. I guess the point I'm trying to get across is that there are reasonable arguments to both sides of this and I don't really understand blasting Molitor or the coaches for making the decision they made. I'm going to side with the judgement of guys paid to win games rather than message board posters.
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I don't know if you're a WAR guy, but even in 2014, Arcia was barely above 0 WAR offensively and defensively. Nunez has been a slightly positive WAR guy for the Twins and is already comfortable not playing every day.
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Options are good. However, when you are weighing all the potential lineups you need and options you need, I just don't see the need for an option of Sano at 3B. Obviously the coaches have looked into it and don't see it as an option they need and prefer to have Sano concentrate on RF. Letting a young player concentrate on a single position isn't just about having them comfortable defensively. Its also about them not having to think about too many things and letting those distractions affect them offensively.
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In an ideal world, it might work to sit Plouffe on games against strong RHP, put Sano at 3B and Arcia in RF. However, we don't really know how Arcia will perform when only playing a couple times a week. We know exactly what we are getting with Nunez, who is used to playing that way. Also, those games when we are facing a tough RHP are also the games you might want to rest Sano or Park.
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I hope Arcia bounces back and if he does, thats a great thing. That would let them shop Plouffe, move Sano to 3B and give Arcia RF full time (or at least a great platoon). That would be a best case scenario for the Twins. Can you imagine a lineup of Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Sano, Arcia Next, I specifically posted Nunez's career OPS of .696 because he did have a great year last year. Thats still better than what Santana would provide, likely better than what Arcia will do unless he gets his head on straight and likely better than what a rookie with no AAA experience playing a couple days a week could do. Also, why are you talking about extended playing time for Nunez? We're talking about 20-25 games at 3B along with filling it at SS and 2B occasionally. He's been a career utility guy which is what he would be doing next year.
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I would say the question on Buxton is "when", not "if". I've very confident he will be a great player. I just imagine he'll still have struggles offensively this season. If the backup to Rosario is Kepler, then who is your RF? Plus, Kepler really should get at least half a season at AAA before jumping to the majors. Without Sano in the OF, they have a high risk of having a very pathetic outfield offensively in 2016. Putting Sano in the OF in 2016 really helps out the OF and you know 3B is going to be at least average offensively and defensively. Now in 2017, if Buxton, Rosario and Kepler all pan out, its a different story and maybe Sano moves back to 3B.
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Allright, I'm getting confused. I thought we were talking about Sano playing RF versus 3B. Not RF versus DH versus 3B. Really, we're talking about who is going to play 3B for the 20-25 games that Plouffe does not play 3B. Lets assume that that Sano plays 'somewhere' in those 20-25 games. Option 1: Sano plays 3B. Santana, Kepler or Arcia play RF. Option 2: Sano plays RF. Nunez plays 3B Option 3: Sano plays DH. Never mind, that is stupid because you'd have Nunez and Santana/Arcia/Kepler in the lineup with Park/Vargas/Plouffe all sitting on the bench. In Option 1, you are filling a spot in the lineup with a guy with a 2015 OPS of .532, a 2015 AAA OPS of .650 or a rookie who has no playing time at AAA. In Option 2, you are filling a spot with a guy who had a 2015 OPS of .758 and a career OPS as a utility guy of .696. I would rather have Nunez in the lineup than Santana or Arcia easily. If it were a full time job, I'd rather take a shot with Kepler, but it makes 0 sense to have Kepler on the Major League Roster as a sub and its a big risk that he's ready to be an every day major leaguer.
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I disagree about the Twins backlog of outfielders. If Buxton reaches his potential quickly and if Rosario doesn't regress in his second season and if Kepler is ready to be an everyday MLB OF with now AAA experience and if Arcia bounces back from 2015, they would have a solid outfield. However, if Buxton is merely mortal and takes longer to acclimate to MLB and if Rosario doesn't improve his strike zone and see's his high BABIP drop and if Arcia doesn't rebound from 2015 and if Kepler struggles in the jump from AA to the majors with no AAA time, the Twins could have one of the worst hitting outfields in the major leagues.
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Vargas is not going to be playing RF (most likely). Park is definitely not going to be playing RF. If Sano moves to third, you will be replacing him with Arcia, Danny Santana or Kepler if you decide you don't want Kepler being an everyday player in AAA.
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Then we do what so many people have been advocating all winter. Trade Plouffe for pennies and put Sano at 3B. Its entirely possible that will happen. No need to assume it will happen and create a hole in the OF that needs to be filled with a guy who had a .532 OPS in the majors last year or a guy with a .650 OPS in AAA last year or a rookie. Lets be honest. Sano is a risk in RF and a risk at 3B. Nobody really knows for sure if he can handle either position full time. I grant you, he is a bigger risk in RF than at 3B. However, by taking the risk in RF, you fill the hole in your lineup with a proven commodity rather than Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia or Max Kepler. Even though Kepler is a very promising prospect, he still has no time in AAA and you don't have a sure thing with Eddie Rosario on LF who could be due for a big sophmore slump. Plus, Buxton didn't set the world on fire last year and might take awhile to adjust to the majors in CF. Lets say Buxton improves a little, hits .250 with a .650 OPS. Lets say Rosario's BABIP drops to a more reasonable .300. Lets say Kepler comes in and has a good rookie season with a .725 OPS. You'd be looking at a Twins outfield with an average OPS of .685. That would make the Twins one of the worst, if not THE worst hitting outfield in baseball.
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Sano is going to be playing those 20 games no matter what. The real question is are we better off Nunez playing or a guy who had a .630 OPS in AAA last year.
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You reveal your cards this early so that your players know what is expected of them. Sano spends all of his fielding drills with the OF instead of splitting time with the IF. If you don't reveal your cards and reporters notice Sano is not taking defensive reps at 3B, they are going to keep asking the questions and it becomes a distraction to the team. If you don't want to reveal your cards early and have Sano take reps at 3B, you are just wasting his time if you have no plans to play him there. Might as well have Rosario take reps at 2B just in case. Its not like other teams are going to game plan around whether Sano is in RF or at 3B. If you really think its about strategy, then maybe the strategy is raising the value of Trevor Plouffe. Maybe there are teams out there sniffing around Plouffe thinking the Twins have Sano at 3B and thinking they can get Plouffe on the cheap. If the Twins convince those teams that they are committed to Sano in RF, those teams make make more significant offers for Plouffe.
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Thats a good problem to have. Lets say Sano turns into an above average RF and they want to keep him there for the next few years at least. Lets also say that Rosario and Kepler prove they are starting level OFs in the majors. Then you've got a nice trade piece in the future.
